Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

^
Damn those nowadays gifs

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[LFC_Bitcoin]

The halvening can't be priced in. If the halvening is priced in, is the next halvening priced in too? How about the next 25 halvenings? It's impossible to price in halvenings. The halvening is like a change in physics.

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1211697573658058759?s=20

[jojo69]

Is Brave not a good browser to block most obvious ads?

dunno about that, but it's the only browser I can get bittrex to work on

[Icygreen]

Wow,  just found this I'm my inbox. What a thoughtful new year's surprise!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5204109.msg53482066#msg53482066
Also one for Biodom, finding nemo, death angel and Arriemoller.

[bitserve]

The halvening can't be priced in. If the halvening is priced in, is the next halvening priced in too? How about the next 25 halvenings? It's impossible to price in halvenings. The halvening is like a change in physics.

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1211697573658058759?s=20

And what if the halvening is priced in... but also a drop in price before the halvening is priced in too? I mean, if you were sure that the price after the halvening were to rally BUT, at the same time, you thought there is still a possibility for a lower price before the rally starts... Wouldn't it make sense to wait a bit before going all in even if you were expecting a rise after the halvening?

So the price of the halvening may be priced in and at the same time it may not be priced in (yet)... both at the same time! There's that!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Is Brave not a good browser to block most obvious ads?

dunno about that, but it's the only browser I can get bittrex to work on

Works on my iphone

[Indymoney]

Is Brave not a good browser to block most obvious ads?

dunno about that, but it's the only browser I can get bittrex to work on

Works on my iphone

But still sucks some time for me

[Icygreen]

time for a traditional Russian sauna (Banya) to bring in the new year!

is that the kind where you drink vodka and they slap you with sprigs of evergreen?

Haha, 
That's pretty much how it went, not in that order.

[becoin]

Fuckery

So expect a dump?

Act by December 31st to Lower Your 2019 Tax Bill

https://blog.kraken.com/post/3390/crypto-tax-loss-harvesting/

... and to Increase Your 2020 Tax Bill?
Only retards will follow such an obvious scam!

[El duderino_]

^
Good to hear from you, tell us where we heading at 

[Biodom]

Fuckery

So expect a dump?

Act by December 31st to Lower Your 2019 Tax Bill

https://blog.kraken.com/post/3390/crypto-tax-loss-harvesting/

... and to Increase Your 2020 Tax Bill?
Only retards will follow such an obvious scam!

In US: so far there is no ruling that wash sale rules apply to crypto...maybe yes, maybe no, more likely no than yes due to ruling that crypto is property and wash sale rule so far SPECIFICALLY applies to stocks and bonds. That said, wait 31 days and no wash sale, even theoretically.

[fillippone]

The halvening can't be priced in. If the halvening is priced in, is the next halvening priced in too? How about the next 25 halvenings? It's impossible to price in halvenings. The halvening is like a change in physics.

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1211697573658058759?s=20

I think Plan B answered this paradox many times

In my thread Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity there are a few hints about this:


Q2.

“Oh, is the halving priced in?” and I think this does speak on where you stand on other debates; for example, the efficient market hypothesis. So, as an Austrian, and even Saifedean himself I think has made a similar comment on this saying, “Look, knowledge is not given to everyone equally, and so we should not anticipate that what might be called the strong form of the EMH, or even perhaps the weak form of the EMH, is not a good way to think about things,” but then there are others from the Chicago School and other schools of thought that may believe in that more. Where do you side on that?

PlanB: That’s a very interesting point. Actually, that’s one of my first charts, the halving chart with the color overlay; it shows the Bitcoin price with the months until the next halving; and you can clearly see from that chart that the halving is not priced in, or at least was not priced in the last two times. So, my best guess would be it is not priced in now, next halving May 2020, but the efficient market hypothesis. It’s kind of weird. It should be priced in, of course. In fact, I’m a big believer of the efficient market hypothesis, or at least it should be used as a first starting point for most people that don’t have inside information, or specialized knowledge, or a big trading room available. The efficient market price is the best price there is, they can rely on that, and that’s especially true if markets are really big and liquid and efficient, and I think that’s true for the Bitcoin, in a sense. It’s like an $80 billion market.

SLP67

Q4

Stephan Livera: Yeah, it’s fascinating stuff. And this table that you’ve got, so you think, so just for the listeners, it’s showing the year, the halving, and the model predicted price. So as you said 50,000, 400,000, and then 3.2 million for the 2028 halving. Now, to the extent that stock-to-flow modeling works, so again caveat, this is not economic law, it’s some sort of modeling, but to the extent that the modeling works. Do you have any reflections on how many cycles we could anticipate this working for?

PlanB: Yeah, that’s also a discussion on Twitter, lots of questions about exactly this infinite value if you wish. If you follow the table, we could go all the way to 2140 when the flow is zero, when there’s no more new bitcoins, only fees. And the theoretical value how to stock to flow model would be infinite. So how can that be? And basically I think this is a very theoretical argument. And I’m a very practical guy. So if I look at the next three halvings alone. So we’re now at, say, 100, $200 billion market. Every halving this market goes 10X. So after 2020, we go to one trillion, after ‘24 we go to 10 trillion. And after ’28, so the third halving we go to a 100 trillion US dollars, hence my name, my Twitter handle.

PlanB: I think that we don’t have to wait until 2140 before the model breaks or before something breaks. I think we’ll be there sooner than we think. I think we’ll be there well, maybe 24. Somewhere between 24 and 2028 because 10 to $100 trillion Bitcoin market that’s enormous if you compare it to the US dollar for example. It has a monetary base of three trillion, and I think an M2 of about 12 or 14 trillion. So then that means that somewhere between 2024 and 2028, bitcoin is bigger than the US dollar. It basically means the US dollar will die, and we’ll be measuring things in Bitcoin.

Stephan Livera: Very bullish.

Here the image detailing what they were referring to:


Twitter link


So there’s no such thing as 25th halving pricing in. Something is going to break before than that: either BTC or USD.

[dragonvslinux]

The halvening can't be priced in. If the halvening is priced in, is the next halvening priced in too? How about the next 25 halvenings? It's impossible to price in halvenings. The halvening is like a change in physics.

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1211697573658058759?s=20

And what if the halvening is priced in... but also a drop in price before the halvening is priced in too? I mean, if you were sure that the price after the halvening were to rally BUT, at the same time, you thought there is still a possibility for a lower price before the rally starts... Wouldn't it make sense to wait a bit before going all in even if you were expecting a rise after the halvening?

So the price of the halvening may be priced in and at the same time it may not be priced in (yet)... both at the same time! There's that!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat

Agree to this idea, I said something similar elsewhere... I feel as if the halving speculation has been priced in, but not the havling itself - ie the economics of stock to flow, reduced supply & therefore difficulty feeding a stable demand. Even if it a takes a few months after the halving, supply will dry up fast enough in my opinion.

[becoin]

^
Good to hear from you, tell us where we heading at 

Firstly to Year 2020 and secondly to the Moon!

[El duderino_]

^
Good to hear from you, tell us where we heading at 

Firstly to Year 2020 and secondly to the Moon!

Good enough for me, 2020 will come shortly, moon comes when it’s time, that’s the main thing we BTC’ers must now...

I do love planB but still remember it can go much faster it can go a bit slower, but we will get there anyway as long as BTC survives !

We can not only have believe in one or two models that some guys say predict.... they are reasonable and contain some healthy hopium

[Biodom]

The halvening can't be priced in. If the halvening is priced in, is the next halvening priced in too? How about the next 25 halvenings? It's impossible to price in halvenings. The halvening is like a change in physics.

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1211697573658058759?s=20

I think Plan B answered this paradox many times

In my thread Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity there are a few hints about this...

It is interesting that he admits that the model would break sometime in the next three cycles, yet it cannot be priced in, I agree.
I am a bit confused about numbers, as what you attributed to planB is 50K, followed by 400K, followed by a VERY large number that is probably meaningless.
However, lately I saw 100K, followed by 1000K. I think that he tweaked his model later on.
also, what is interesting is the fact that we always exceed theoretical value both going up and down during oscillations, so, I guess, it is entirely possible to go to, say, 150-160K on the upside and back down to 30K on the back slope of that "mountain" in 2022-2023.

[Wekkel]

I believe the ‘Masterluc’ scenario is also still in play?

[fillippone]

The halvening can't be priced in. If the halvening is priced in, is the next halvening priced in too? How about the next 25 halvenings? It's impossible to price in halvenings. The halvening is like a change in physics.

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1211697573658058759?s=20

I think Plan B answered this paradox many times

In my thread Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity there are a few hints about this...

It is interesting that he admits that the model would break sometime in the next three cycles, yet it cannot be priced in, I agree.
I am a bit confused about numbers, as what you attributed to planB is 50K, followed by 400K, followed by a VERY large number that is probably meaningless.
However, lately I saw 100K, followed by 1000K. I think that he tweaked his model later on.
also, what is interesting is the fact that we always exceed theoretical value both going up and down during oscillations, so, I guess, it is entirely possible to go to, say, 150-160K on the upside and back down to 30K on the back slope of that "mountain" in 2022-2023.

Yeah, he admits that having a bitcoin worth multi millions USD is meaningless: probably this means USD has broken as an unit of measure, losing too much value, transferring this function to bitcoin (if a bitcoin is 3 millions USD, how much is a l’iter of milk, btw?)

Yes, he tweaked the models and numbers a few times, so you might have seen slightly different numbers. Those you posted are not dramatically different. Keep in mind S2F don’t provide trading targets, but some model value around which market price can swing widely. Well, I might add the marked moved up from model 300%, but down only 50%: the model then can be considered underestimating the actual market price.

[Last of the V8s]

F@k me 2020 in 26 hours, who'd a thought?


sorry for poor quality, anyone got a better please?

[Biodom]

I believe the ‘Masterluc’ scenario is also still in play?

The one with broad strokes that predicted the surge to 13-14K following by decline to 6.5, then to 72K (by the tip of the arrowhead)?
Obviously, yes, of course, but I think that he might want to flesh it out for 2020-2021 a bit, although if we get to that tip, I would be perfectly happy.