Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitebits]

Did not see this posted yet, 39 page report:

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6616225/Plustoken-Report.pdf

This inaugural Special Situation Report will deliver the facts about PlusToken through the lens of on-chain bitcoin analysis

[1715394012]

1715394012

[1715394012]

1715394012

[1715394012]

1715394012

[1715394012]

1715394012

[1715394012]

1715394012

[Ibian]

- Italy reports 1,797 new cases, bringing total to 9,172 as deaths increases to 463.

This is really, really bad. That's a 5% death rate. However as we discussed a few days ago, it takes a while from people getting sick to either dying or being cured. With a doubling time of a week (6 days) and 2-4 weeks from getting sick to whichever conclusion, we are looking at at least a 20% death rate. Possibly more but I won't venture there at this time.

In addition to this, you can get reinfected and the next round is worse.

In addition to this, there are reports that even if you are cured there is a risk that you will end up with pulmonary fibrosis which gives people a life expectancy of 3-5 years.

This thing could literally wipe out half the planets population if any of this is halfway accurate.

[nutildah]

Did not see this posted yet, 39 page report:

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6616225/Plustoken-Report.pdf

This inaugural Special Situation Report will deliver the facts about PlusToken through the lens of on-chain bitcoin analysis

I read the Chainalysis report and took a look through this one too. Its interesting that the scammers did all that work just for all of it to be totally traced to Huobi. They moved it around through like 20,000+ addresses for ultimately no reason at all, LOL.

Its not unreasonable to think that its continued cashout is at least partly responsible for our current dip.

[serveria.com]

Time to attack 8k 

[Cryptotourist]

Time to attack 8k 

Very bearish, coming from youteasing
I thought it was time for Vegeta.

It seems we found strong resistance overnight, on the 3 pages/hour mark.
Anyway, going strong with the WO doubling, approaching on May.
The previous ATH of 9 pages/hour should seem like a blink.

[marcus_of_augustus]

- Italy reports 1,797 new cases, bringing total to 9,172 as deaths increases to 463.

This is really, really bad. That's a 5% death rate. However as we discussed a few days ago, it takes a while from people getting sick to either dying or being cured. With a doubling time of a week (6 days) and 2-4 weeks from getting sick to whichever conclusion, we are looking at at least a 20% death rate. Possibly more but I won't venture there at this time.

The fatality rate is highly dependent upon how much the healthcare system gets overwhelmed. That is what happened in Wuhan because they didn't see it coming, the CCP denied it was happening and within a month it was everywhere. Anywhere the healthcare system gets overwhelmed fatality rates will shoot up to 15-20%. With good ICU care fatality rates can drop to <1%.

Here's a firsthand account from a doctor in N. Italy. We should have been allowed to hear these accounts from out of China to get the useless politicians and bumblefuck health bureaucrats to wake the fuck up and stop listening to the WHO. Urgency, organisation, pragmatism and bravery is of the essence if you want to beat this thing, it is like fighting wildfires.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/10/just-doctors-trying-fight-tsunami-crashed-us/

Bergamo, northern Lombardy, is Ground Zero for Italy’s coronavirus crisis. The city has 1,245 positive cases, a number that rose by 248 yesterday. Hospitals are under enormous pressure and doctors are having to make agonising choices about their priorities. In a post on Facebook, Dr Daniele Macchini of the Humanitas Gavazzeni hospital, revealed what frontline workers were facing as he warned against public complacency. His words have been translated and edited for length.

I understand the importance of not generating panic, but the gravity of this situation is not well understood, and I shiver when I hear people saying they don’t care, or complain because they cannot go to the gym or play football.

I myself was shocked to see the total reorganisation of the hospital over the past week: the wards slowly emptied, non-urgent activities interrupted, the intensive care unit given over to make room for more beds.

I remember how I spent my night shift a week ago nervously waiting for a call from the microbiology department waiting for the response of the test on the first suspected case in our hospital, and thinking of the possible consequences for us.

If I think again about that night, now that I see what is going on, my anxiety at a single case seems ludicrous. It is reductive to call the current situation dramatic, but I have no other words. The war has literally exploded and the battles are relentless, day and night.

People show up at the hospital one after the other. They have nothing like the problems caused by seasonal flu. They can’t breathe, they need oxygen.

There aren’t many therapies for this virus. It depends mainly on your body.

What we can do is simply support the body when it can’t keep it up any more. Now we dramatically need those beds. All the emptied wards are being filled again at an incredible pace.

The boards with the name of the patients, with different colours for each different units, are all red and the diagnosis is always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia. There are no longer surgeons, urologists, orthopaedists – we are all just doctors trying to fight this tsunami that crashed on us. The number of cases is rising, with 15 or 20 new patients every day for the same reason.

The results of the tests come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly, the emergency room is on the brink of collapse.

The symptoms are always the same: high temperature and shortness of breath, high temperature and cough, shortness of breath.

Some need to be intubated and sent to the emergency care unit already. For others, it’s just too late…

The staff are literally exhausted. Social life is suspended for us. For almost two weeks, I voluntarily decided not to see my son or family members, for fear of infecting them and consequently infecting elderly relatives with other health problems.

So, you should be patient too, if you can’t go to the theatre, museums or to the gym. Try to have mercy for all the older people you could exterminate.

We have no alternative [but to be here]. It is our job... in the end we only try to be useful for everyone. Now, try to do it too.

With our actions, we influence the life and death of a few dozen people.

With your actions, you could influence many more.

[hung58bitcoin]

This whole thing where bitcoin price is following the stock market tells us one thing.

We need to shift the focus of Bitcoin from market and price to utility and actually using it as a currency.

Totally agree.  However, that's been the case for years and similar posts have been on this very thread since I started reading it in 2014. Unfortunately, the whole 'HODL until I'm rich' mentality has undermined the very purpose of BTC.

Oh, and can we finally put to bed the whole idea of BTC as a safe haven - whilst global stock markets face their worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, BTC tanks even more.  If BTC really was a safe haven, it would be mooning now. Gold still seems to be the haven of choice.

I totally agree with your comments. But I would like to add that the market value of cryptocurrencies is too small compared to the gold market or the stock market that has existed for a long time. The problem here is that the price of BTC or altcoins rise and fall with a huge margin compared to gold. So big investors feel insecure about their investments. Therefore, when the effects of COVID-19 epidemic spread more and more around the world, investors will be bewildered. They will withdraw investment money from the stock market, cryptocurrencies to invest in the gold market or withdraw cash to buy food in case they live in isolated areas due to diseases such as in Italy.

[mindrust]

May sound dumb right now but...

If this is called AIDS-FLU because it has some characteristics of HIV... does that mean Covid19 can also hibernate like HIV (or Herpes) and come on surface when your immune system is weak... or you are old?

(If that's the case it sounds  like they found a way to sustain social security system infinitely... by killing the weak)

[hung58bitcoin]

May sound dumb right now but...

If this is called AIDS-FLU because it has some characteristics of HIV... does that mean Covid19 can also hibernate like HIV (or Herpes) and come on surface when your immune system is weak... or you are old?

(If that's the case it sounds  like they found a way to sustain social security system infinitely... by killing the weak)

I  don't think so because of some of the following reasons. First, according to scientists, the COVID-19 virus has the same genetic sequence as the SARS virus. So the mode of transmission is almost the same as the SARS virus. Secondly, there is a lot of clinical evidence that has been recorded in many deaths in people who are completely healthy and aged between 30 and 40 years old. For example, the doctor who treated at Wuhan Hospital died of the COVID-19 virus with no background diseases such as hypertension and diabetes as in the elderly. In short, scientists around the world do not fully understand the mechanism of action and how to destroy this virus. And at least 1 year to get the vaccine to prevent this disease.

[serveria.com]

Time to attack 8k  

Very bearish, coming from youteasing
I thought it was time for Vegeta.

It seems we found strong resistance overnight, on the 3 pages/hour mark.
Anyway, going strong with the WO doubling, approaching on May.
The previous ATH of 9 pages/hour should seem like a blink.

Yeah, bearish mood today man    Vegeta is also just around the corner btw...  and all is well as Lambie would say...  

P.S. Just realized this is my 1000th post on Bitcointalk (party) 

[HairyMaclairy]

I thought we would have slipped under the fractal now. Good to see that we’re relatively where we should still?

I would have thought so too, but bizarrely we are exactly on track. 

[Majormax]

- Italy reports 1,797 new cases, bringing total to 9,172 as deaths increases to 463.

This is really, really bad. That's a 5% death rate. However as we discussed a few days ago, it takes a while from people getting sick to either dying or being cured. With a doubling time of a week (6 days) and 2-4 weeks from getting sick to whichever conclusion, we are looking at at least a 20% death rate. Possibly more but I won't venture there at this time.

In addition to this, you can get reinfected and the next round is worse.

In addition to this, there are reports that even if you are cured there is a risk that you will end up with pulmonary fibrosis which gives people a life expectancy of 3-5 years.

This thing could literally wipe out half the planets population if any of this is halfway accurate.

That is one way of looking at it: you quote the case/death ratio.  The actual infection numbers could be a lot higher, with large numbers of mild unreported infections. That brings the infection/death rate way lower. There is just insufficient data on this atm, to make much judgement.

I agree about the reinfection issue. It does seem like this is going to be a new , novel disease which is going to be a threat to human population indefinitely into the future. We will just live with it, like all the other diseases.

The biggest effect will be a modification of behaviour. More social distancing. Probably a reset of the financial system/economy to take account of many things, including new paradigm for the aged : healthcare, pension, deathrate.  Some big changes and very hard decisions here.

Anyway, that is looking far ahead: there is a long crisis to go through first.

[Paashaas]

Covid-19 will not fade away during spring and summer.

Covid-19 will not suddenly disappear after economic stimulans.

[Last of the V8s]

How's your bottom now, Hairy?

[Majormax]

Coronavirus is bullish for the King.

Obviously not..

You guys still think china virus is bullish?

What happened? Why are we following the DOW instead of the inverse?

Is Bitcoin just a luxury?

No, x3.

1.  This is spawning a liquidity crisis. BTC is getting liquidated along with other assets.

2.  The world is entering a deflationary phase. All asset prices can fall, including BTC.

3.  The medium/long term (2-3 years) trend is down, so that is the natural bias.

4.  On a Positive note, it is a good indication that 6500 has not yet been tested.

5. 1BTC = 1BTC.

[vapourminer]

Everybody start panicking right now. This is not a drill.

i do panic test runs all the time. so should do ok at a real panic.

in fact i dont think ive ever left panic test mode.

[mindrust]

Coronavirus is bullish for the King.

Obviously not..

You guys still think china virus is bullish?

What happened? Why are we following the DOW instead of the inverse?

Is Bitcoin just a luxury?

No, x3.

1.  This is spawning a liquidity crisis. BTC is getting liquidated along with other assets.

2.  The world is entering a deflationary phase. All asset prices can fall, including BTC.

3.  The medium/long term (2-3 years) trend is down, so that is the natural bias.

4.  On a Positive note, it is a good indication that 6500 has not yet been tested.

5. 1BTC = 1BTC.

The question is... will they QE to cancel liquidity crisis?

Here is another quick algorithm:

Code:

def tothefuckingmoon():

    QE = input("Is QE happening? (true-false)")

    if QE=="true":
        print("QE will cause hyperinflation... hyperinflation will send Bitcoin to the...")

    else:
        print("Banks will run out of money because of the negative interest rates. Liquidity will dry out."
              "People will run to the Bitcoin as an alternative and bitcoin will go to the...")
        
    print("FUCKING MOON")

tothefuckingmoon()

Can't lose with bitcoin.  

[vapourminer]

Fucking banned from Twitter for 7 days. Used the new meme "OK groomer" against a well-known Twitter paedophile, and I'm the one banned for "hate speech".

San Francisco needs to fall into the ocean already.

thats.. wtf

i may have found a new hobby.

[vapourminer]

I wish I'd been informed about Bitcoin before January 2013. I'd be rich now instead of merely comfortable.

It is difficult to know for sure.

When I looked into bitcoin in November 2013, I had heard about bitcoin earlier, and I even had it book marked as "something to look into", but I am not sure how much I would have been willing to put into it when it was more difficult to do.  There was certainly some kind of legitimacy that came to bitcoin with the market increase in late 2013.. and subsequent market increases (such as 2015-2017) gave further validation to bitcoin.

when i heard about it in 2011 i already had machines doing F@H and such so was familiar with those types of builds. so my game machine was my 1st miner and i could immediately start generating coins.

so my perspective is different from those who bought strictly as an investment. i was playing with a new toy, and coins were the plaything. purpose was to test and beat the snots out of it. try all the different wallets (well the 3 or so then) etc. so while i had a lot of coins (compared to some, but dwarfed by others here), im not rich. those coins were used. not hoarded.

had i kept them.. hey that would have been cool. filthy rich instead of merely very comfortable. but all of it changed my life for the better.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Back to over $8,000.

Currently observing $8,063. Who sold at the bottom?

My factory in China are shipping again & they said the epidemic is coming to an end over there. I don’t know if their media & news channels have said anything that we won’t know yet but it must be good news. Her English isn’t great so I couldn’t get great detail out of her.