Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

I'm thinking of playing the US stocks a little more. There is some predictable price action ahead.

For example: By the end of the week, some kind of stimulus package will be passed by the government. Markets skyrocket. Next week, following logarithmic viral spread and increased testing, the market will crash further.

maybe, but I am curious about rebounding yield curves. 10 year went from 0.31% on Monday to 0.82% today- a crazy move.
We shall see if it continues. I stand by my prediction (made on Sunday) that Monday would mark the generational low in US [long term] bond yields.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53992050#msg53992050

Shit's gonna be apocalyptic tomorrow when the markets open.

Brace for maximum pain.

HODL strong. It's going to get worse.

Maybe, but futures are NOT at the lock down yet.

[1715195541]

1715195541

[1715195541]

1715195541

[JSRAW]

[JayJuanGee]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Sideways... $7860USD/$10804CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Ho hum.

What middle class?

Employees.

Serfs.

Peasants.

I think peasants might even be above serfs. Depending on region and time period.

Reminds me of a quote. Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of nobility, barter is the money of peasants, and debt is the money of slaves.

Some of that is true, but also these days, you can really use debt to your advantage.

Part of the confusion about this whole system is that money and the time value of money is so cheap that in using the incumbent system, there are ways to use debt to get things that you would not otherwise deserve, and then pay back the debt 5 or 10 years later when the money is worth less.

Part of the problem with poor people is that they cannot even get credit or banks, and maybe that is not as much a problem in the west because there are a lot of people who get debt and use it badly, but some people do not even have those tools available to them and able to profit from having those kinds of debt tools.

[somac.]

This pretty accurate to what I'm thinking. Yes the price of Bitcoin is going down at the moment, but my biggest concern right now is with my other investments. I am starting to get very concerned about counter party risk. Something I don't have to worry about with bitcoin.

[nutildah]

FTFY



 

(ps: nothing personally directed at you, I just had to take a potshot)

[JSRAW]

This pretty accurate to what I'm thinking. Yes the price of Bitcoin is going down at the moment, but my biggest concern right now is with my other investments. I am starting to get very concerned about counter party risk. Something I don't have to worry about with bitcoin.

Genuine concern, Can understand that....
I consider myself lucky as my IQ level is under 70, so i never get in other investment other than Bitcoin and Land/Property.
 

[somac.]

This pretty accurate to what I'm thinking. Yes the price of Bitcoin is going down at the moment, but my biggest concern right now is with my other investments. I am starting to get very concerned about counter party risk. Something I don't have to worry about with bitcoin.

Genuine concern, Can understand that....
I consider myself lucky as my IQ level is under 70, so i never get in other investment other than Bitcoin and Land/Property.
 

You'll be very thankful for that in the next few years.

[lightfoot]

Wonder if it's time for inoculations.

In other words find someone with the virus, get a sample, and put it in a cut or something on your body. Body detects invader, body makes antibodies before it gets to your lungs.

[JSRAW]

 

[bkbirge]

I just sold all my holdings for a 24 pack of toilet paper. Get in now on the ground floor.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm thinking of playing the US stocks a little more. There is some predictable price action ahead.

For example: By the end of the week, some kind of stimulus package will be passed by the government. Markets skyrocket. Next week, following logarithmic viral spread and increased testing, the market will crash further.

It could be a risky game. Do they have many more stimulus packages available? Orange POTUS is already calling out the Fed as a bunch of wimps because they weren't prompt enough to do it again immediately.

He's the kind of guy that we need in a crisis like this.   A guy of action (even if orange).

[Paashaas]

There are 126,369 confirmed cases worldwide affecting 124 countries with 4,633 deaths.

- Hungary declares state of emergency: closes all universities, bans indoor events for more than 100 people. Bans outdoor events for more than 500 people. Stops flights, trains and buses from Slovenia and Austria.
  Tightens control of the border with Croatia. Requires quarantine for Hungarian citizens returning from Italy, China, South Korea and Iran.

- NBA suspending all games until further notice. NBA player Rudy Gobert tests positive for coronavirus.

- Trump says he will suspend all travel from Europe to the US for 30 days except for the U.K.

- Italy orders that all shops close with the exception of pharmacies and food stores.

- Denmark closes all schools and universities, orders all public sector employees with non-critical jobs to be sent home from Friday.

- El Salvador declares national quarantine, bans the entry of foreigners and closes all schools.

- Actor Tom Hanks says he and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus.

- New York City set to cancel St. Patrick's Day Parade for the first time in over 250 years.

- Ukraine closing schools and banning large gatherings.

- Norway bans indoor events with more than 500 people.

- Poland closes schools, museums and cinemas.

- Merkel warns 60-70% of germans could be infected.

- Indonesia, Greece, Albania, Panama, Belgium, Ireland, Bulgaria, Sweden reporting first deaths.

- WHO declares Covid-19 is a pandemic.

- South Korea reports new outbreak in call center.

- Lebanon closes all restaurants and cafes.

- Gaming event E3 2020 in Los Angeles cancelled.

- First community transmission in Scotland.

- Travel between Malta and Switzerland, Germany, France, Italy and Spain is being banned.

- Coronavirus has disrupted supply chains for nearly 75% of U.S. companies.

- Starting friday, India is banning all foreign tourists, and quarantining anyone who's been to 7 countries worst affected by coronavirus.  

- The Guatemalan health minister Hugo Monroy said the country will ban the entry of European citizens.

- Kuwait bans foreign travellers.

- Two more F1 members (team Haas) tested for coronavirus.

- Stock market will tank even harder.

- Twitter orders all its employees to work from home.

               

[JayJuanGee]

You know what panic and pandemic have in common? Take a closer look.

PANDEMIC

Observing @ $ 7,675 😜

We are all going to die and not just that... we'll die POOR! Worst of both worlds.

$7655!

(I wish I didn't throw that 5 grand on btc today fck, good news is the support line still holds but  FOR HOW LONG???)

You are frequently rooting for down in order to get some buying opportunities.  Why change your mind, now?

This is what panicking is about. Panic when It goes up because you don't have enough coins yet, panic when it goes down because it is going down (but not low enough) and you are entering from the wrong price. This is what happens when you play both sides.

Now the price is up and solid again at 7900 I am glad that I spent that $5k.

If that bottom holds, that'll be one of the best btfd's of my life.

Looking pretty rough out there, with no real bottom in sight.

I am thinking that retesting of $6,425 has become greater than 50/50.. maybe even getting close to 60%... hate to be betting on down, but the trend is your friend, so some times hard to know when the momentum is going to stop.

Surely, I would prefer that our current bottom of $7,560 holds, but will also be quite content if $7k holds.  

Hard to know how much more dumping is going to happen, and maybe currently with ongoing dump there remains some short term correlation with just ongoing panic overall.. and panic that is likely going to seem overblown in retrospect, but seems completely rational while we are going through it.

Go figure?

[JayJuanGee]

Shit's gonna be apocalyptic tomorrow when the markets open.

Brace for maximum pain.

HODL strong. It's going to get worse.

Think of the situation like this lil guy, bob:



Yeah, sure, he might be retarded, but he's not really too worried, either, AmiNOTrite?

For sure, bitcoin remains a hedge.

Wonder if it's time for inoculations.

In other words find someone with the virus, get a sample, and put it in a cut or something on your body. Body detects invader, body makes antibodies before it gets to your lungs.

In theory that sounds like it could work.  I would hesitate to do that to myself, and you might get locked up if you do that to your kids.  Just saying.   

[Ibian]

- Poland closes schools, museums and cinemas.

This i the kind of thing that bums me out the most. The virus is already everywhere so there is no reason not to continue my travel plans, but if everything worth seeing and doing is closed then...

[nutildah]

For sure, bitcoin remains a hedge.

Now you're redefining "hedge" as "going down with the rest of the market"?

[JayJuanGee]

For sure, bitcoin remains a hedge.

Now you're redefining "hedge" as "going down with the rest of the market"?

Are you the same nutildah?

I am not redefining hedge...

Get a grip.

You have been pretty negative and bashing on bitcoin lately.

You also should know better.

Of course, it is likely that bitcoin is going to experience a lot of short term correlation with traditional markets, and sometimes, recently, you are acting like you don't even understand bitcoin.  Did you sell your account?  Bring back the real nutildah....

May I remind you where we are at?  We had about a 63% price appreciation in BTC in about two months from $6,125 to $10,500, so yeah, we were ready for a correction, and sure the market situation likely exacerbated a pre-existing necessity for a correction...

There is seemingly a lot of froth in the altcoin space too that seems to be better to be purged somewhat... Yeah, bitcoin and shitcoins are not the same thing, but still, there can be dragging effects on bitcoin whether we are talking about traditional macro markets, shitcoins or some combination of those.

Furthermore, we are still quite well on track in terms of  the current dominant BTC price prediction models, including 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe/ networking effects.  

I have some difficulties understanding how you can be so doom and gloom, recently.  Who fucking cares about some of this short term BTC price movement.. it is part and parcel of opportunities that are taken to try to push the BTC price as low as possible and for as long as possible... and time is likely to show that such efforts are not going to be successful and honey badger gives less than two shits about such manipulation attempts.

Every period has its attempts to get weak hands to part with their coins, and this seems strongly to be a buying or at minimum a hodling period.. because it is quite likely that our lack of correlation is going to show itself, especially if you zoom out a bit....

[nutildah]

For sure, bitcoin remains a hedge.

Now you're redefining "hedge" as "going down with the rest of the market"?

Are you the same nutildah?

I am not redefining hedge...

Get a grip.

You have been pretty negative and bashing on bitcoin lately.

You also should know better.

I'm not "negative on bitcoin," nor am I "bashing" it. I just see zero evidence that it acts as a hedge in a falling stock market. You thus far haven't presented any.

[JayJuanGee]

For sure, bitcoin remains a hedge.

Now you're redefining "hedge" as "going down with the rest of the market"?

Are you the same nutildah?

I am not redefining hedge...

Get a grip.

You have been pretty negative and bashing on bitcoin lately.

You also should know better.

I'm not "negative on bitcoin," nor am I "bashing" it. I just see zero evidence that it acts as a hedge in a falling stock market. You thus far haven't presented any.

I don't need to present any evidence.  You can decide for yourself. 

You realize the level of adoption for bitcoin remains quite low, even compared with gold in terms of financial vehicles being available for regular investors.

How the fuck are traditional investors going to hedge into bitcoin when there are not too many investment vehicles?  10 or 20 years from now, there are likely to be a lot more tools available in bitcoin, but still does not mean that bitcoin is neither a hedge or a great long term play, even if there remains excessive volatility during the short term and even excessive manipulation because bitcoin is way the fuck easier to manipulate or move the price than traditional markets, including selling or even shorting is going to have greater effects with smaller amounts of capital.  Furthermore, even as longer term bitcoin hodlers, we are not even likely aware of the various ways that the price can sometimes be played around with behind the scenes or even the extent to which the Plustoken dumping evidence is true and all that kind of bullshit that goes on behind the scene in order to attempt to take advantage (and profit) from short-term momentum.. downward as that may be..

By the way, I got into bitcoin in late 2013 with the idea that bitcoin was going to serve as a hedge for me, and even some uncertainties about how that was playing out in the short term, especially 2014 and 2015.. but it seems to have been serving as a decent hedge, and my initial investment timeline was 1-2 years minimum, but ended up expanding to much longer as we see. 

Currently, I suggest that anyone getting into bitcoin should be prepared to have a minimum of a 4 year investment timeline and of course, circumstances are going to vary, but holding and investing through at least 2 halvenings (including the supply constraining effects  for 1-2 years after the halvenings) should be able to demonstrate bitcoin hedging effects in a kind of longer term time horizon.

If you, nutildah, are requiring evidence of hedging effects on a short term basis, including panic periods like this, you seem to be devolving into quasi-nutjob status... bring back the real nutildah... I insist!!!!!!!!   

[JayJuanGee]

I don't need to present any evidence.  You can decide for yourself.  

Okay, thanks.

Your welcome.  


Now:  "bring back the real nutildah... I insist!!!!!!!!   "