Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hodl_2015]

I dont think Bargain Boyz were expecting this, but I can tell by the volume they scooped up a ton of coins in the Bargain Buy Zone.

About 30k volume on stamp during the up/downs, yet only 1k coins on the book before we reach $8k, so not that much to scoop up.

[1715031588]

1715031588

[Lambie Slayer]

not today bitcoin    weeeeeeeee\\\vvv

Just to make myself feel better I looked up Bitcoin Instant. Its not affected by the sell-off because it hasn't been traded in 5 days weeeeeeeeeeeeee  

LOL TrannyBitz and his Bitcoin Instant.  

[ivomm]

Hey guys, cheer up! This storm in a cup of tea will pass out. (I am referring to Coinbase, where thousands of small fish were panic selling like hell all day.) Although I shot my bullets at $9K and $7.8K, I am not frustrated. On the contrary, I am not even bothering to transfer any of my $23K reserve, which is the very last that I can afford. This is kept only if the price falls way below my main entry point. I expect, however, the price to recover in the next 2 weeks, similarly to the 3-4 Feb 2018 roller coaster 11k-6k-11k.

Since we all love to make predictions, I will make some bizzare prediction for the Summer of 2020. In early 2019 when the price fell to 3K, I was giving <10% chance for the price to recover at $6.4 by the Summer. Above that I wasn't even considering the chances. For example, the Deribit exchange probability chart looks exactly what I was thinking:



And still Bitcoin exploded 4.5x from the bottom. Now, I would give <0.1% chance to repeat that run starting with today's Bitstamp bottom $5714. This would lead to a local top at $25 713 sometime in the Summer. And to make the chances smaller, let's asume a 5x bull run, i.e. $28 750. After that, another 2-6 month correction between 35% and 45%. I know, this is strong hopium.   I would give >50% chances for the price to be around 10K this Summer. There are obviously strong resistances above 10K and of course the ATH 20K. I am just saying that Bitcoin did this several times in 2017 and 2019. In the Spring of 2017 a run from $700 to $2800 and in the Fall of 2017 a run from $1800 (local bottom in the Summer) to $20K. I am just saying that for some reason king Bitcoin turns such odds into reality way too often. So, we shouldn't consider it as impossible. Even 10x in 6 months...

Of course, we should prepare mentally for a long wait in case this corona shit is getting worse. This is just another time extension to buy moar cheap coins. And with such strong shakeouts of the weak hands, it is always better that the coins land into more responsible and strong hands.

[Lambie Slayer]

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has attempted to explain what exactly happened to Bitcoin's safe haven status. In his new tweet, he writes that investors tend to 'take leverage down' and book profits during such black swan events.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Not a hedge asset

From the U.S. stock market suffering from its quickest correction since the Great Depression to oil prices plummeting 16 percent — this week will surely go down in history.

When global markets got gripped by a ruthless sell-off, Bitcoin failed to serve as a store of value, which many believe should be its main use case. In fact, BTC performed worse than any traditional asset, shedding 15 percent of its value in less than a week. At press time, it is just trading just below its key support level of $8,500.

Bonds, not Bitcoin

While gold bugs were quick to dismiss Bitcoin's as a hedge against economic uncertainty, Novogtatz's claim about investors booking profit definitely holds water.

One of the biggest surprises of this tumultuous week was the gold price recording a five percent drop on Friday. The yellow metal is considered to be the most robust store of value.

Just like during the 2008 crisis, investors started liquidating both stocks and gold for covering their margin calls. Bonds and cash turned out to be the real safe haven. 
https://u.today/mike-novogratz-explains-why-bitcoin-btc-is-failing-as-safe-haven

During his recent interview with TD Ameritrade Network, Ari Paul, the CTO of BlockTowerCapital, agreed with Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz that more money printing initiated by central banks around the globe could be the most bullish case for Bitcoin (BTC).

Is #bitcoin’s store of value use-case broken after its big break from bonds and gold? $btc@AriDavidPaul weighs in:

However, he predicts that Bitcoin could mirror gold in 2008 with a delayed reaction to the looming economic crash.

More aggressive rate cuts

As reported by U.Today, the U.S. Federal Reserve did a 50 bps emergency rate cut on March 3 to cushion the devastating blow from the coronavirus pandemic. However, it provided only a temporal relief for the equities market that had its worst day since the previous recession on March 9.

Now that President Donald Trump calls the Fed 'pathetic' and pressures it to cut rates in a more aggressive manner, things could get really bullish for Bitcoin as Novogratz predicted earlier.

"I totally agree with Novogratz that the strongest bull case for Bitcoin is what we are seeing right now, which is the entire U.S. Treasury curve below one percent," Paul said.   

https://u.today/mike-novogratz-thinks-its-strongest-bull-case-for-bitcoin-btc-ari-paul-agrees

Yeah big picture this is very bullish for King Bitcoin.

[nutildah]

Yes folks, my college days were interesting to say the least

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c431Cxat4fk

[eddie13]

This is just straight up bullshit..
Bitcoin was supposed to be protection from shit like this, not just dump right off right along with the mainstream economy..
I'm pissed..

I'm sure you guys have 20 excuses for why "China Virus is Bullish" was so totally wrong..
All I can think of is TYVM regulation shills and mainstream market adoption shills..
Now BTC is tied right to the funny money markets, WTF is it good for now?

No, I didn't lose any trades on this or sell anything, but this is totally shaking by belief of what Bitcoin is supposed to be..
This is the exact opposite of what Bitcoin is supposed to do.. Great global markets crashing and there goes Bitcoin plunging right along with it..

Feds announce massive market bailouts.. Bitcoin doesn't even move..

[mindrust]

This is just straight up bullshit..
Bitcoin was supposed to be protection from shit like this, not just dump right off right along with the mainstream economy..
I'm pissed..

I'm sure you guys have 20 excuses for why "China Virus is Bullish" was so totally wrong..
All I can think of is TYVM regulation shills and mainstream market adoption shills..
Now BTC is tied right to the funny money markets, WTF is it good for now?

No, I didn't lose any trades on this or sell anything, but this is totally shaking by belief of what Bitcoin is supposed to be..
This is the exact opposite of what Bitcoin is supposed to do.. Great global markets crashing and there goes Bitcoin plunging right along with it..

Feds announce massive market bailouts.. Bitcoin doesn't even move..

Calm down. Even gold is down.

Bitcoin is alternative to the Central Banks. It is a parallel banking system. Good or bad the legacy banking is still functioning.

What do you think people gonna use for buying stuff from Ebay when banks are gone? Physical gold coins with Fedex?

USD is destorying itself right now. You may just not notice it yet.

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.nytimes.com/1987/01/30/us/aids-may-dwarf-the-plague.html 

[El duderino_]

$7000 BTC in one hour 

Would feel like a victory today  

[gentlemand]

This is just straight up bullshit..
Bitcoin was supposed to be protection from shit like this, not just dump right off right along with the mainstream economy..
I'm pissed..

With all due respect if you believed Bitcoin would somehow be immune to the global economy tossing its cookies then you are a silly sausage.

Bitcoin is owned by people. People tend to react to extreme things in the same manner no matter what the arena.

Let's see what the recoveries look like and judge again.

[jojo69]

"there is nothing more helpless and irresponsible than a man in the depths of an ether binge."

[El duderino_]

Is it now officially open to say........... All TA is flawed most of the times?  

Or just all the times

[suchmoon]

Feds announce massive market bailouts.. Bitcoin doesn't even move..

To be fair, the "market" wasn't impressed with those bailouts either... S&P is still down 8%.

[Ibian]

New poll, what concerns the WO most

BTC or Corona

Corona. Corona. Myyyy Corona!

Edit: Oh, an actual poll. I can't answer that. Bitcoin is my economic salvation and I am not worried about Corona-tama. On the contrary, it is highly interesting and in the long term the upsides to a plague like this may outweigh the damage it does. I just hope my folks don't get sick but other than that, bring on the kung flu.

[Lambie Slayer]

This is just straight up bullshit..
Bitcoin was supposed to be protection from shit like this, not just dump right off right along with the mainstream economy..
I'm pissed..

I'm sure you guys have 20 excuses for why "China Virus is Bullish" was so totally wrong..
All I can think of is TYVM regulation shills and mainstream market adoption shills..
Now BTC is tied right to the funny money markets, WTF is it good for now?

No, I didn't lose any trades on this or sell anything, but this is totally shaking by belief of what Bitcoin is supposed to be..
This is the exact opposite of what Bitcoin is supposed to do.. Great global markets crashing and there goes Bitcoin plunging right along with it..

Feds announce massive market bailouts.. Bitcoin doesn't even move..

Bitcoin is long term protection. Long term the Chinese Flu will be bullish for it. If someone had stocks and wanted something that moved at a perfect inverse then you short those stocks. The Dude already posted a nice article that discussed gold getting rekt in 2009 w stocks before it took off to the moon.

If you bought VT (the total world stock index of Vanguard) and Bitcoin on Dec 31 the day Coronavirus became a global story, then you lost about 24 percent on the world stocks, and about 15 percent on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has outperformed stocks despite plus token scammers selling at any price.

Also global stocks wont be cutting their supply in half in 59 days, while Bitcoin will.

A famous nocoiner Warren Buffet said "Price is what you pay, Value is what you get."  Buffet was right about this one. This new flu that has only killed a small amount of people and is subsiding in China already has caused tremendous money printing already and much more to come.

Today that may not have increased the price of Bitcoin, but the value has increased greatly and when all the noise washes away the price will reflect that down the road.

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1238166848551538688

[Lambie Slayer]

Statement Regarding Treasury Reserve Management Purchases and Repurchase Operations

Today, March 12, 2020, the Desk will offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation at 1:30 pm ET that will settle on March 13, 2020.  Tomorrow, the Desk will further offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation and $500 billion in a one-month repo operation for same day settlement.  Three-month and one-month repo operations for $500 billion will be offered on a weekly basis for the remainder of the monthly schedule.  The Desk will continue to offer at least $175 billion in daily overnight repo operations and at least $45 billion in two-week term repo operations twice per week over this period.

COVBULL-19 doing what it does best. Causing money printers to go all out.

[Torque]

A famous nocoiner Warren Buffet said "Price is what you pay, Value is what you get."  Buffet was right about this one.

This is especially true when you take the red pill and investigate why most stocks, like tech stocks, are insanely overvalued at IPO, by literal orders of magnitude (think 1000x or 10,000x the price of they should hit the market for). It's because 99.999999% of the total stock shares, in the hundreds of millions, a small group already owns before the IPO. Like a massive shitcoin pre-mine. What hits the float for exchange trade is minuscule by comparison, and even that is already leverage 100x at launch.

This is why Bitcoin launched with no value, and then on to fractions of a penny, and so on... and it's still undervalued comparatively.

[Raja_MBZ]

I'm too afraid to open my Blockfolio at this time. It seems like my portfolio caught the Coronavirus.

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/european-central-bank-stimulus-package-amid-coronavirus.html

"The European Central Bank decided Thursday not to cut interest rates, despite market expectations for a reduction amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

However, the central bank did announce measures to support bank lending and expanded its asset purchase program by 120 billion euros ($135.28 billion)."

COVBULL-19 forced money printers to make another 135 billion. Markets wanted more, markets puked, and markets will soon get more, bc central bankers always print more when the markets punish them.

We have seen with stocks in the past that it takes time for all this fresh money to be printed and to find its way into asset valuations. But rest assured, thats exactly where its going and Bitcoin will benefit.