Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible.
If you are even 50% sure about this scenario then plz buy some and forget about it, if not then Best of luck for your future endeavors.
I had a great system. I wasn't making big but it was adding up in time. The moment I started to throw big bucks like $5k+ I lost control. I wasn't buying the dip anymore.
I should not even have to say anything.
Just look at your above statements, they are internally contradictory.
You cannot have a "great" system that is only prepared for one direction (or mostly one direction, as long the other direction is not too extreme). Get real. We already know that bitcoin has extremes, and if you buy on the way down and then you cannot sustain your buys, you just have to stop buying and just ride it out. We have said this like a thousand times in this thread... I mean we said it enough that the practice should mostly be ingrained.
So, yeah, one aspect about your above statement is that you acknowledge that you lost control and therefore that you went too far in terms of throwing too much of your fiat (reserves) at the down movement too quickly.
I am not going to portray myself as some kind of saint, any of us who are trying to employ a kind of system that both DCAs and buys on dips is likely to run into some kind of variation of the problem that you describe, which is running out of money while buying on the way down, and at some point, as long as we are not getting really retarded in terms of attempting to employ leverage, we either have to tapper our buys down drastically in terms of amounts or the increments of the buys or we have to just completely stop and just wait it out... which could even take several months if the situation becomes a bit way too far out of wack.
When it comes to bitcoin, I can't be sure about anything.
Join the club, especially when it comes to short term.. but when it comes to longer term, that is what we have to keep in mind, so even though the short term can both out pace expectations, it can also last way the fuck longer than we would like to happen... So waiting it out, might mean that you are 70% underwater for a decent amount of time (maybe 3 to 10 months or perhaps even longer), and maybe you would just keep dollar cost averaging into such a situation. I was in a similar situation in the last half of 2014, all of 2015 and the first half of 2016. I was 65% down at several points, and spent a lot of 2015 in the 50%-ish down.
That's why I am overly conservative this time. DCA only.
Current situation is fucked up too. Everything can go down instantly tomorrow. I am hodling most of my cash in bank and even that's not safe.
Maybe that could be called conservative? Switching over to dollars is not necessarily "conservative" because that is only one asset class, and so you end up having nearly all of your eggs in one basket.
I'd rather DCA. 50 bucks week. Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible. If it goes that low again you can be sure that it won't stop there so... DCA is the way. No dip buying, no big buying. 50 bucks week and that's it.
Even if goes below $4k again, I am not willing to risk more than %10 of my cash this time. I was too careless last time especially in the last months.
Waiting for a double price from here is gambling. I am fucking done with gambling.
Honestly after all whats said and done, if I had you in front of me, I would bitch slap you till you bought at least 50% of your coins back, i.e. 5, at these prices.
You did say you would ride it to zero, so fucking ride it to zero.
How can you keep on doing it wrong man?
I don't think that there is any right number, exactly, because once mindrust made the mistake of selling 10BTC ish at $4,500-ish and therefore going 100% into cash, there was some kind of calculation of factors.. NOT just the panic aspect but something else, also.
So, 50% might not be right.. but 20% to 30% or some number that is less than 50% might be right for the circumstances. I actually don't know what that is, either, so I am not going to pretend to exactly be able to say what that number would be for mindrust. but I get your point, cryptotourist that likely anywhere between about zero and 20% might objectively be wrong numbers under almost any scenario.. including the fact that even mindrust is admitting that he made a mistake and regretting his decision and therefore, he is compounding one mistake on top of another.
I think that the number has to do with what realistic, true and not fantasy land probability
mindrust assigns to up and what number he assigns to down
(I could care less than two shits about whether he is correct or not or what number any of us assigns to the probability), and the amount that he puts back into BTC would some how make those numbers line up in such a way that his reinvestment back into BTC turns him into something close to a neutral in terms of how much emotions he attaches to either BTC price direction (and fuck it about whether he is right or not, that does not matter, because if he is lining up the numbers in such a way that he is emotionally neutral, the ultimate direction does not matter, and sure he can tweak along the way, too from time to time).. so his action would make him neutral and not give any shits either way.... something like that.
Of course, there is some kind of locking into taking these kinds of actions, but still when each of us takes an action like this, we are still empowered to do whatever we want, including changing it; however, if we truly engage with ourselves about our thinking about the asset, we should be able to make some kind of commitment that we do not have to change every time that BTC prices change by 3% or 5%.
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