Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Maybe we are talking past each other or alternatively, maybe we can just agree to disagree to the extent that I am just going to repeat my point that the dynamics have not really changed in this cycle as compared with previous cycles including how much you might also have feelings regarding what the pulse of members of this thread might be, including whether honey badger gives any shits about what regular members of this thread might do.

Of course, there are always going to be people already in bitcoin that are anxious to sell out as soon as we even get close to our previous ATH.. just like that was true in 2015/2016 when so many HODLers were talking like desperate fanatics to cash out at or near $1k, including having doubts that the BTC price would ever return to $1k again and also arguing that they wanted to cash out before everyone else who was eager to cash out.  

How the fuck are they feeling after the BTC price went to $19,666 and they blew their load at $1k-ish under the belief that everyone else would be selling and the BTC price could not be supported up to those higher prices... furthermore, if they were planning to buy back later at a cheaper price, so far, they have been kind of fucked out of that and the best that they could have done was somewhere in the $3k's even though they might have been waiting for even lower prices, so they even failed to buy back in the $3ks..

How have those smarter than the rest of us theories about: 1) "the BTC price NOT being sustainable" and 2) "everyone is desperate to lock-in profits" working out?  Not so well, I would maintain.    In other words, good luck selling all your coins around $20k and the same may be true regarding other price points in the 5 digits realm... even though none of these matters are guaranteed, there are likely opportunity costs and risks in trying to believe that you are smarter than everyone else and selling too much too soon based on such skepticism theories regarding what prices might be sustainable in BTClandia.

I think the point is to keep as much as you can for as long as you can and there is never a bad time to stack. Divesting is always a losing proposition no matter what price point you get.

Now, you seem to be saying the opposite from what you had seemed to have been saying before.

Are you having split personality issues, currently?      #nohomo

In the end, guys and gal can decide for themselves how to manage their BTC portfolio, including trying to determine somewhat planned out strategies in advance, so in that regard, actual BTC performance and/or view of BTC fundamentals would not be the only factors to consider, and surely some peeps are going to be better at figuring out all of their issues than others including figuring out cashflow, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and their time, skills and abilities to research learn about bitcoin which also includes how they plan/strategize including reallocating from time to time or even trading or not.

I am reluctant to say anything else, because I am not sure if our points are resonating with each other, currently.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $9,186

[Leviathan.007]

BTC/USDT 4H


As you can see on the chart above, we are still on a price compression shown with a pink color on the chart, After breaking this price compression area from any side we can expect to see a dangerous sharp movement. We do have the strong support area on 8980 and 9080, this can make another price jump to 9600 and 9800. and this 9600 - 9800 resistance in a very important area where the market decides to continue the trend or after breaking 9900 we can expect to see Bitcoin on higher channels up to 11k, Or by not breaking it we can expect to see the price at 7800.

My next analyze is ready on my thread. Where I explained about the breaking price compression channel which is one of the most important movements of this year, where the market makes decision to make a break one side of the channel and attempts for higher or even lower targets.

[BlackHatCoiner]

About the poll, I chose September. For the prophesy:

[ivomm]

BTC/USDT 4H


As you can see on the chart above, we are still on a price compression shown with a pink color on the chart, After breaking this price compression area from any side we can expect to see a dangerous sharp movement. We do have the strong support area on 8980 and 9080, this can make another price jump to 9600 and 9800. and this 9600 - 9800 resistance in a very important area where the market decides to continue the trend or after breaking 9900 we can expect to see Bitcoin on higher channels up to 11k, Or by not breaking it we can expect to see the price at 7800.

My next analyze is ready on my thread. Where I explained about the breaking price compression channel which is one of the most important movements of this year, where the market makes decision to make a break one side of the channel and attempts for higher or even lower targets.

You do realize that one can draw at least 20 other lines connecting various tops/bottoms, showing absolutely all possible directions of the future prices, right?   And then, why should Bitcoin obey the one you chose?  (Of course, this is kind of a joke with much truth in it, valid for any TA in general.)

Having said that, there are some patterns that are remarkable and studied in the professional TA. Perhaps the most famous is the falling wedge pattern. It is clear that since the spike above 10200, we have a falling wedge. Your lines somehow miss this pattern. I don't understand how arbitrary lines should be preferred compared to the most common pattern in trading history. Anyway, the TA regarding the next move of the price pretty much is clueless. Half of the books/artciles predict a downard breakout and the other half an upward breakout. The only thing both agree is that the volume will be much higher. The other thing I partially agree with, is that it depends on whether we are in a bear or a bull market. If we are in a bull market started in March 12th and that will continue in the months and years to come, then the breakout should be upwards. It is almost equally possible however, that we are still in a longer bear market since July 2019 (or should I say since Jan 2018 with an interruption April-June 2019), so a breakout downards is equally possible.

[Globb0]

No the argument is more like this.


Round earth or flat earth. There really isn't technicaly much difference. They are both earths

[Leviathan.007]

You do realize that one can draw at least 20 other lines connecting various tops/bottoms, showing absolutely all possible directions of the future prices, right?   And then, why should Bitcoin obey the one you chose?  (Of course, this is kind of a joke with much truth in it, valid for any TA in general.)

Having said that, there are some patterns that are remarkable and studied in the professional TA. Perhaps the most famous is the falling wedge pattern. It is clear that since the spike above 10200, we have a falling wedge. Your lines somehow miss this pattern. I don't understand how arbitrary lines should be preferred compared to the most common pattern in trading history. Anyway, the TA regarding the next move of the price pretty much is clueless. Half of the books/artciles predict a downard breakout and the other half an upward breakout. The only thing both agree is that the volume will be much higher. The other thing I partially agree with, is that it depends on whether we are in a bear or a bull market. If we are in a bull market started in March 12th and that will continue in the months and years to come, then the breakout should be upwards. It is almost equally possible however, that we are still in a longer bear market since July 2019 (or should I say since Jan 2018 with an interruption April-June 2019), so a breakout downards is equally possible.

Hey ivomm,
I would suggest you to read my thread here explaining about it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5229837
Of course, the price will never obey my TA. In other words, none can tell surly and 100% how the price should react even the best trader in the world. Because there is a difference between traders are predicts.
So generally, price action is just a science that examines the possibilities. Depends on how you use it.

Also regarding to chart patterns, it's a super huge world there are many geometric and fibonacci ratios we should check and if one number changes a little bit the whole pattern changes completely. Just to see how many chart patters do we have and how complicated they are you can check this page here: http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html
I usually won't consider patterns except for long and mid-term analyzes (That's just my style )

Edit: Oh sorry bud.. I didn't notice the joke part in the first place....

Thank you for sharing your toughs with me about the analyze. Apologize for the misunderstanding in the first place  

[Last of the V8s]

Never really trusted boats anyway, and now look.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

You do realize that one can draw at least 20 other lines connecting various tops/bottoms, showing absolutely all possible directions of the future prices, right?

Exactly.

I'm no expert in TA (who is?), but to me it seems that most predictions of this kind apply Gambler's Fallacy, expecting a coin that came heads 6 times in a row to come tails the next time they toss it.

All we need to know to predict where it's going long-term can be found here. For short-term predictions, just roll a dice, and you'll be right 50% of the time on average -- better than many TA charts out there.

[JSRAW]

^^ here you go..

[vapourminer]

^^ here you go..

wait

so its NOT supposed to look like that??

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

This is your last chance to make fun of Bitcoin until we move our ass towards the moon 😜

About the poll, I chose September.

Let Bitcoin to have stable image for few more months so I gone with October. I am enjoying the time around right now 😜

[cAPSLOCK]

@mikeinspace
The road to 100K will be long & arduous for #Bitcoin  as each 10K rise is someone’s psychological top creating sell pressure and retracement. It’s easy to say you’ll hang on white knuckled all the way up but when will you lick the fiat boot... 20K? 30K? 50K?

HODL brother, HODL!
https://twitter.com/mikeinspace/status/1282862789812531206?s=21

I am wondering if this is not some sarcastic post.  He is not exactly one to take that ideological line.

[infofront]

So I have tried a few times to download the Coinbase app needed to sign up for the Coinbase debit card. Each time I get "This is not supported in your country".

I use a VPN to set my IP in the US so is it not supported in the US? Or is it somehow detecting that I'm really in Panama?

Also, I finally got around to filing my extortion papers for the IRS.

Getting married helped keep me from needing to pay any taxes.

Land of the free...where you have to file your taxes even if you haven't stepped foot in the country all year.

You could renounce your citizenship, but you may well be anticipating getting some income such as social security or maybe you are receiving some other pension, which makes it a BIGGER trade off to renounce.

I am not saying that I agree with world-wide income taxation, and surely there are trade-offs with any system whether we are referring to taxation or other matters of figuring out if you get benefits or will get benefits in the future.   Sure, you likely subscribe to one of those libertarian views, and you have already admitted to it, and sure I have issues with libertarians trying to spin matters with out accounting for how to deal with various public goods, but you surely did not start your propounding of libertarian ideas in your teenage years, so you have some issues with your having had made too many USA connections in terms of either prior employment or your desires to return to the USA or to travel around the world with a USA passport causing you to be unwilling to renounce your citizenship.. because it will likely cost you more than what you are willing to admit to because you want to spin the taxation matter in one direction (sure we all have concerns about taxation how their spent and from whom they are collected).

To renounce my citizenship would require paying taxes on the total value of all of my bitcoin holdings as if I sold them the day I renounced. The thought of the amount of brown skinned people in far off lands who's skin will be burned off using my money does not sit well with me.

My thought is that the US will collapse in the next few years so it is not necessary to renounce my citizenship. US citizenship will cease to exist. Then I can just not sign onto the America 2 (the electric boogaloo) citizenship.

But not to worry. I filed this year so when you leave your house in the morning there will be roads.

[_javi_]

whats up with the mempool??

Hashrate @ath and still we are congesting?

[dragonvslinux]

Volatility is back to the lows again. I was expecting a "big move" sub 2% on 30-day volatility average a couple of weeks ago, now I'm starting to think we can go sub 1% like in 2018:



Either way, when the move happens, it's likely to be bigger the further the volatility drops. Just like in April 2019 and November 2018.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Well......

[cAPSLOCK]

whats up with the mempool??

Hashrate @ath and still we are congesting?

Hashrate has nothing to do with how quickly we clear the mempool.

Well, I suppose if the recent difficulty adjustment was higher than today's current hashrate we could see block times slow down just a little... but that's also normal.

[nutildah]

whats up with the mempool??

Hashrate @ath and still we are congesting?

Hashrate has nothing to do with how quickly we clear the mempool.

Well, I suppose if the recent difficulty adjustment was higher than today's current hashrate we could see block times slow down just a little... but that's also normal.

Difficulty is a tad too high, block times remain wonky. Somebody sent me a 4 sat/byte tx 2 days ago and it still hasn't confirmed :/

[LFC_Bitcoin]

whats up with the mempool??

Hashrate @ath and still we are congesting?

Hashrate has nothing to do with how quickly we clear the mempool.

Well, I suppose if the recent difficulty adjustment was higher than today's current hashrate we could see block times slow down just a little... but that's also normal.

Difficulty is a tad too high, block times remain wonky. Somebody sent me a 4 sat/byte tx 2 days ago and it still hasn't confirmed :/

Is 4 sat per byte too low to run through Via Bitcoin free transaction accelerator?