Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

[shmadz]

shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?

seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.

if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?

I really don't get this

[derpinheimer]

shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?

seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.

if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?

I really don't get this

Short squeeze means price goes up*, but I also do not understand what it means for them to be pushing down.

Please clarify

*[People take losses on their shorts and buy back, rather than risk it going up even more, and in turn losing even more]

[nanobtc]

no story just thought it looked cool... i paid someone some BTC to make it in Photoshop.

Adam, I hope you didn't pay very many BTC for that, the basic pic has been around since 1996.

[ShroomsKit]

I'm a little grumpy I didn't buy more at 500 range now. Wasn't expecting this fast upward movement. Hopefully we will go down one last time so I can buy and if not hopefully new ATH

You want it to go down AGAIN? Just so you can buy low? Really? What is it with you people?
Stop being so greedy. You've had all the chance in the world to buy low but just like many people here you probably set your buy orders way too low because you really worried about paying 10 bucks more.
Now you missed the train and you want Bitcoin to go crash again just so you can buy your cheap coins. Which of course wouldn't happen anyway since you once again will set your buy orders way too low.

[zoinky]

I'm a little grumpy I didn't buy more at 500 range now. Wasn't expecting this fast upward movement. Hopefully we will go down one last time so I can buy and if not hopefully new ATH

You want it to go down AGAIN? Just so you can buy low? Really? What is it with you people?
Stop being so greedy. You've had all the chance in the world to buy low but just like many people here you probably set your buy orders way too low because you really worried about paying 10 bucks more.
Now you missef the train and you want Bitcoin to go crash again just so you can buy your coins. Which of course wouldn't happen anyway since you once again will set your buy orders way too low.

Theres always that guy, and then theres always that guy stating that there that guy.

[aminorex]

shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?

seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.

if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?

I really don't get this

up.   but i think it should get to the neighborhood of 650 before that happens.  they will overextend.  this is not smart money.  this is gambling addiction at work.  before the capitulation, big money was in short, and could endure a little squeeze here and there, but big money won't be short for long in this environment.  i mean think about it, no matter how overbought you consider the market after a quick run up from 535 to 710, if you KNOW for a FACT that there are multiple million-dollar buyers out there, and you've seen all the classic patterns flashing buy buy buy, how far are you willing to push it down?  if you're really confident that the book is weak, you will hit it, just because you're an addict, and there is opportunity for a quick buck, but at the first sign of strength, you're going to cover quick.

[ShroomsKit]

I'm a little grumpy I didn't buy more at 500 range now. Wasn't expecting this fast upward movement. Hopefully we will go down one last time so I can buy and if not hopefully new ATH

You want it to go down AGAIN? Just so you can buy low? Really? What is it with you people?
Stop being so greedy. You've had all the chance in the world to buy low but just like many people here you probably set your buy orders way too low because you really worried about paying 10 bucks more.
Now you missef the train and you want Bitcoin to go crash again just so you can buy your coins. Which of course wouldn't happen anyway since you once again will set your buy orders way too low.

Theres always that guy, and then theres always that guy stating that there that guy.

And then there is always this guy...

[MANofthePEOPLE]

I'm a little grumpy I didn't buy more at 500 range now. Wasn't expecting this fast upward movement. Hopefully we will go down one last time so I can buy and if not hopefully new ATH

You want it to go down AGAIN? Just so you can buy low? Really? What is it with you people?
Stop being so greedy. You've had all the chance in the world to buy low but just like many people here you probably set your buy orders way too low because you really worried about paying 10 bucks more.
Now you missed the train and you want Bitcoin to go crash again just so you can buy your cheap coins. Which of course wouldn't happen anyway since you once again will set your buy orders way too low.

No, I did not set buy order too low. I simply didn't get money to the exchange in time. Chill out

[keewee]

Adam, what is the story behind your penguin avatar? Are you a linux user? If so, which distro?

no story just thought it looked cool... i paid someone some BTC to make it in Photoshop.

Flaunting the penguin but not a user? Blasphemy.

About 80% of the time I'm using Linux Mint. I hope this eases some tension...

^ What a noob. I respect none but those who compile their own binaries. Take your first baby steps with Gentoo.

No!

good god, this just reminded me that I once built a Linux installation using Linux from Scratch. For some perverse reason I decided that Gentoo wasn't low-level enough for what I wanted

[aminorex]

if they really wanted to sell, they would have sold by now.  the liquidity was there for them, but now it is gone.  chasing it down will just over-extend the cost-basis to the point where there's hardly a buck to be made before the turn comes.  and china is waking up to expensive coins now.  could be panic buying.  i definitely would not want to be levering short at this point.  sold some coins around 690-700 to pick them up between 650-660, fine, well and good, always fade the spikes, but definitely not shorting here.

[thezerg]

shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?

seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.

if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?

I really don't get this

Short squeeze means price goes up*, but I also do not understand what it means for them to be pushing down.

Please clarify

*[People take losses on their shorts and buy back, rather than risk it going up even more, and in turn losing even more]

by knowing the shorts you gain info assymetry advantage that can be used to accumulate coins at a lower price or otherwise make money.  but you need to be able to put this knowledge 2 use by triggering a short squeeze.   to trigger you need a thin ask book near the money so you can push the price up to squeeze levels all by yourself.  If too many people short pushing price down but ask orders do not follow then the shape of the ask is ripe for a squeeze.   check my post history; yesterday I called the squeeze that happened today...

[aminorex]

turn comes in 3 hours methinks.  651.

bitcoin usually exceeds my expectations, however.  moves more, and quicker.  i may never learn to recalibrate for that.

[Tyson95]

Last week the pumper stopped pumping on Tuesday so it should be interesting how the rest of the week turns out.

[Peter R]

shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?

seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.

if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?

I really don't get this

Traders are borrowing coins on margin from Bitfinex and selling them into the market.   These traders hope to buy them back cheaper in the future, return the borrowed coins, and pocket the difference.  "Pushing down hard" means traders are borrowing additional coins and selling them into the market, thereby helping to push down the price.   

There are presently 8,116 BTC on loan to short traders at Bitfinex.  These traders are paying on average 27% per year in BTC to borrow them, and at some point in time they will buy them back because they aren't theirs to keep.  If the price goes up instead of down, some may chose to buy back to minimize their loss, thereby adding fuel to the rally.  At this point, other short traders may be running out of margin (they now have insufficient collateral to cover their mark-to-market losses on their short position) and Bitfinex will force them to cover, squeezing people out of their positions. 

[aminorex]

the offer was made:  bids were thin enough, you could have swept the book down to 664, dropped a trail of crumbs behind you to make the ask look thick, but you knew you couldn't make your slippage back unless the bbo moved down to the 650 zone, and all those pulled bids could have come back and caught you in a vice, so you sat on your thumbs.  you don't want the liquidity when it is offered, and you don't want the bid stack when it is offered, so wtf are you even doing here?  come back and play when there's actual money to be made.

ah but i forget, there's no reasoning with a gambling addict.

[shmadz]

shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?

seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.

if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?

I really don't get this

up.   but i think it should get to the neighborhood of 650 before that happens.  they will overextend.  this is not smart money.  this is gambling addiction at work.  before the capitulation, big money was in short, and could endure a little squeeze here and there, but big money won't be short for long in this environment.  i mean think about it, no matter how overbought you consider the market after a quick run up from 535 to 710, if you KNOW for a FACT that there are multiple million-dollar buyers out there, and you've seen all the classic patterns flashing buy buy buy, how far are you willing to push it down?  if you're really confident that the book is weak, you will hit it, just because you're an addict, and there is opportunity for a quick buck, but at the first sign of strength, you're going to cover quick.

thanks for explanation.

I am a degenerate gambler type, with a very small risk tolerance. so I like to take money off the table when I can.

If it's not gonna drop below 650, then it's not really worth it for me to sell immediately. On virtex, you need to make at least 3% on each trade, minimum.

virtex I could probably still get 720 CAD, but if stamp only drops to 650 then virtex will probably stay around 700, not enough delta for me.

I need an imminent plunge if I'm going to sell coins.

Maybe I will just wait.

EDIT:

Traders are borrowing coins on margin from Bitfinex and selling them into the market.   These traders hope to buy them back cheaper in the future, return the borrowed coins, and pocket the difference.  "Pushing down hard" means traders are borrowing additional coins and selling them into the market, thereby helping to push down the price.   

There are presently 8,116 BTC on loan to short traders at Bitfinex.  These traders are paying on average 27% per year in BTC to borrow them, and at some point in time they will buy them back because they aren't theirs to keep.  If the price goes up instead of down, some may chose to buy back to minimize their loss, thereby adding fuel to the rally.  At this point, other short traders may be running out of margin (they now have insufficient collateral to cover their mark-to-market losses on their short position) and Bitfinex will force them to cover, squeezing people out of their positions. 

ok, I get it somewhat, but I thought that these kind of leverage instruments were supposed to tamp down the volatility, but they seem to exacerbate it?

[aminorex]

no buyers anyhow.  slow grind down is gonna take too long for me to stay awake.  leave some dark buys on the book and hope things are more lively in the morning.  with any luck 3am will bring a shooting war, i'll be flush with fiat from short SPUs in the morning, and can buy more btc.

[Chainsaw]

orymh just posted a new song:
Mt Gox Erupts

Definitely worth a listen/lyrics read (posted at thread).

(Trading-wise, I think we bottom at 656 and head upwards.)

[thezerg]

also why would somebody (lender) expose themselves to bitfinex counterparty risk for .05%?  thats .0005.  Only to buy the same coins twice... forcing the shorts to buy to cover at a much higher price.  that is, buy coins delpeting the ask, give em to shorters to bulk up the ask and then buy them again.