Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shmadz]

shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?

seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.

if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?

I really don't get this

up.   but i think it should get to the neighborhood of 650 before that happens.  they will overextend.  this is not smart money.  this is gambling addiction at work.  before the capitulation, big money was in short, and could endure a little squeeze here and there, but big money won't be short for long in this environment.  i mean think about it, no matter how overbought you consider the market after a quick run up from 535 to 710, if you KNOW for a FACT that there are multiple million-dollar buyers out there, and you've seen all the classic patterns flashing buy buy buy, how far are you willing to push it down?  if you're really confident that the book is weak, you will hit it, just because you're an addict, and there is opportunity for a quick buck, but at the first sign of strength, you're going to cover quick.

thanks for explanation.

I am a degenerate gambler type, with a very small risk tolerance. so I like to take money off the table when I can.

If it's not gonna drop below 650, then it's not really worth it for me to sell immediately. On virtex, you need to make at least 3% on each trade, minimum.

virtex I could probably still get 720 CAD, but if stamp only drops to 650 then virtex will probably stay around 700, not enough delta for me.

I need an imminent plunge if I'm going to sell coins.

Maybe I will just wait.

EDIT:

Traders are borrowing coins on margin from Bitfinex and selling them into the market.   These traders hope to buy them back cheaper in the future, return the borrowed coins, and pocket the difference.  "Pushing down hard" means traders are borrowing additional coins and selling them into the market, thereby helping to push down the price.   

There are presently 8,116 BTC on loan to short traders at Bitfinex.  These traders are paying on average 27% per year in BTC to borrow them, and at some point in time they will buy them back because they aren't theirs to keep.  If the price goes up instead of down, some may chose to buy back to minimize their loss, thereby adding fuel to the rally.  At this point, other short traders may be running out of margin (they now have insufficient collateral to cover their mark-to-market losses on their short position) and Bitfinex will force them to cover, squeezing people out of their positions. 

ok, I get it somewhat, but I thought that these kind of leverage instruments were supposed to tamp down the volatility, but they seem to exacerbate it?

[aminorex]

no buyers anyhow.  slow grind down is gonna take too long for me to stay awake.  leave some dark buys on the book and hope things are more lively in the morning.  with any luck 3am will bring a shooting war, i'll be flush with fiat from short SPUs in the morning, and can buy more btc.

[Chainsaw]

orymh just posted a new song:
Mt Gox Erupts

Definitely worth a listen/lyrics read (posted at thread).

(Trading-wise, I think we bottom at 656 and head upwards.)

[thezerg]

also why would somebody (lender) expose themselves to bitfinex counterparty risk for .05%?  thats .0005.  Only to buy the same coins twice... forcing the shorts to buy to cover at a much higher price.  that is, buy coins delpeting the ask, give em to shorters to bulk up the ask and then buy them again.

[shmadz]

orymh just posted a new song:
Mt Gox Erupts

Definitely worth a listen/lyrics read (posted at thread).

(Trading-wise, I think we bottom at 656 and head upwards.)

At first I thought it was all just mumble-mumble-mubmel--

Very glad he posted the lyrics, it's actually a pretty cool song.

[aminorex]

also why would somebody (lender) expose themselves to bitfinex counterparty risk for .05%?  thats .0005.  Only to buy the same coins twice... forcing the shorts to buy to cover at a much higher price.  that is, buy coins delpeting the ask, give em to shorters to bulk up the ask and then buy them again.

You could definitely make 20% annually, insured.  If you trust bfx, then it's risk-free.  If you consider your stash adequate, and just want income to spend, it's a pretty sweet deal.  Again, assuming you trust bfx.

[gog1]

no secondary buying momentum for the past few hours, only $12.5 million loaned out on BFX which didn't really increase all that much despite the huge run-up, it's both good and bad; good thing is lots of powder on the side to push it up, bad thing is no one has the faith to do it - btc-e is at larger than normal discount vs stamp and Chinese are not buying.  I see it slowly trending down toward $640-650 and there'll be a violent push up once it get near the support.  I think we are range bound for a bit.

[Davyd05]

My gut says up up up and away. The Ukraine situation isn't going to resolve and the biggest non believer friend of mine (no not Jorge ) just asked me to show him how to buy bitcoin, boy was I pissed he didn't just buy at 400 at one of the local atms FFS

[MAbtc]

[jojo69]

no wai

[theonewhowaskazu]

For the moment we're stuck. But just in case I'm leveraged long BTC. That way I can earn BTC while watching my BTC go up. Fun stuff.

[johnny211]

For the moment we're stuck. But just in case I'm leveraged long BTC. That way I can earn BTC while watching my BTC go up. Fun stuff.

You make it sound so easy

[seleme]

My humble attempt at TA.

Daily 5, 15, 30 EMAs clustering together in the not-too-distant future. 200 EMA riding the bottom. Perhaps a Gox-related event will be the catalyst.

Reminds me of when Rick Moranis' character is talking to the horse in Ghostbusters:

"Wait for the sign, then all prisoners shall be released!"

Well, the sign was reached, albeit a bit earlier than expected! During the past week we had a confirmed bottom bouncing off the 200 day EMA not once, not twice, but three times!

We haven't bounced off this line since October 2013 when Silk Road went dark. It was a decisive time for the markets as fears that the value of Bitcoin was largely supported by illegal activities were finally put to rest. We also bounced off the 200EMA in July 2013 after the summer run-up, precisely when the Winklevoss ETF news broke.

Now a similar situation appears as we face the failure and aftermath of Gox, but support has largely held fast, proving the resiliency of this market and optimism of the underlying technology. If that daily green candle means anything, exciting times are ahead.

how do you add so many emas on wisdom

[bassclef]

how do you add so many emas on wisdom

settings>indicator parameters>BOOM

[seleme]

how do you add so many emas on wisdom

settings>indicator parameters>BOOM

oh thanks, never noticed there're empty boxes there

[Mythul]

Wow guys. The price just exploded. I knew we all should have faith in Bitcoin. For now it can only go up. It resisted so much FUD it's not even real.
Go Bitcoin Go !

[dreamspark]

I think this is the news that blockchain.info ceo was hinting at.

[porcupine87]

how do you add so many emas on wisdom

settings>indicator parameters>BOOM

-> good stuff

[aminorex]

some nice charting tools on the bloomberg.  proprietary studies that serve me well in other markets.  not sure they will work well with the coins, however.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

This thing is starting to get really scary. Hacking everywhere:

1) Poloniex exchange:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zigmt/another_exchange_locked_down_poloniex_aware_that

2)Flexcoin:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zihb4/flexcoin_is_shutting_down_after_being_hacked