Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[byronbb]

now according to my sources, we'll be at $700-760 in 2-3 days

OK>>>>> I will bite... who are your sources?

If it is BitcoinSteve I'm going all in.

[JorgeStolfi]

secondmarket is an ETF not an exchange

I know that.  But in their site they say "Liquidity to commence no later than March 2014".  I understand that it is when investors will be allowed to take their money out of the fund, correct?

i think it means that they will have a market where poeple can post bids and asks not for bitcoins themselves, but for a piece of this B.I.T. Fund.

I don't think so, they say that there is no plans for that:

http://www.bitcointrust.co/#Details
An investment in the BIT will be illiquid and there may be significant restrictions on transferring interests in the BIT. There is no secondary market for an investor’s investment in the BIT and none may develop.

From comments in other threads, I gather that investors can only liquidate their investment (at its current value, which presumably depends on the BTC price and the BIT managers' trading performance) starting "no later than March 2014".

[podyx]

now according to my sources, we'll be at $700-760 in 2-3 days

OK>>>>> I will bite... who are your sources?

secret sources

jk, i really have no sources, dont know why i said that

but i base it on the april crash pattern and it really feels like we need to start go up here, good news out etc.

[AlexGR]

I can sense CCMF coming on Crimea situation, sunday night. If tensions keeps increasing, we might go to the moon sooner than most expect..

I think the last thing on peoples minds in Crimea is buying bitcoins.

I think the last thing on peoples minds in Crimea is buying bitcoins. (FTFY)

Outside the small group of people that look at these forums, the statement holds true.

One, or a few billionaires contemplating diversification away from stocks-that-can-crash-and-leave-them-with-10%-of-their-net-worth, is all that it takes for "CCMF". And we are not talking about transferring a billion USD here, much less is required for bitcoin to explode.

The amount of "wealth" stored in bubble-like stocks is immense (tens of trillions). And it has a repeated history of being evaporated due to economic anomalies, black swan events, economic turmoil due to politic-economic situations etc.

Crimea can quickly escalate to economic warfare. Russians are pulling billions from the western system and US treasuries are being dumped by the tens of billions.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NotLambchop]

...
The amount of "wealth" stored in bubble-like stocks is immense (tens of trillions). And it has a repeated history of being evaporated due to economic anomalies, black swan events, economic turmoil due to politic-economic situations etc...

All that nervous money is going to just pour into Gox ... owait.

[AlexGR]

...
The amount of "wealth" stored in bubble-like stocks is immense (tens of trillions). And it has a repeated history of being evaporated due to economic anomalies, black swan events, economic turmoil due to politic-economic situations etc...

All that nervous money is going to just pour into Gox ... owait.

I see it like that: If you are a billionaire and your net worth is fluctuating a couple hundred million USD per day in the stock market - which is subject to tremendous swings due to broader conditions (and can evaporate your "wealth" pretty easily) - why would you mind diversifying to gold, real estate, bitcoins etc. Even if 99% of the billionaires don't consider bitcoin as a hedge, there are some who will - and that's massive in itself.

Does that mean you have to feed the scammers? Nope.

[roslinpl]

All that nervous money is going to just pour into Gox ... owait.

ehhh... what gox have to do with that?

[bassclef]

...
The amount of "wealth" stored in bubble-like stocks is immense (tens of trillions). And it has a repeated history of being evaporated due to economic anomalies, black swan events, economic turmoil due to politic-economic situations etc...

All that nervous money is going to just pour into Gox ... owait.

Wealthy folks usually have a large network of connected friends. They don't need to buy on-exchange, they'll pay someone to take the risk for them. Look at someone like loaded or rpietila. You can bet they are helping their wealthy friends/family get bitcoins and properly secure them.

[JayJuanGee]

now according to my sources, we'll be at $700-760 in 2-3 days

OK>>>>> I will bite... who are your sources?

secret sources

jk, i really have no sources, dont know why i said that

but i base it on the april crash pattern and it really feels like we need to start go up here, good news out etc.

YES... I see from where you are coming..... an irresistible urge to write something in this thread, when mostly all we see is a series of chart buddy posts.    

Also, I am of a similar sense that we are going to get an upward breaking of BTC prices and even an upward trending at some point.... (despite our 3.5 months of downward trending)...    

In current times, though, I am becoming more and more reluctant to put specifics to my projection and my feelings about BTC.... and I get my sense of upward BTC price pressure from the continuing building of BTC infrastructure...  and the increasing awareness of the public of BTC, and surely some people are putting their money into alt cryptos b/c they believe those alts are more affordable than BTC and a better speculative investment, but in the end... the gravitational movement in the totality of the crypto scene is going to be mostly with BTC, with maybe a few of the alts tagging along for an upward ride.

In that sense, the BTC and crypto space expansion seems to greatly outnumber any retractions that simultaneously may be occurring... ..

  Regarding our current poll in this thread:   there does seem to be a fairly even divide concerning whether posters believe that the BTC settling point will be below 600... NONETHELESS, I get the sense that if we are going to settle somewhere with these BTC prices, then we are going to be settling in the $750-$850 range... maybe for a few months before we continue our upward trajectory....  

And, yeah, all of us seem to be guessing..... whether we are using graph lines or using thumb to the wind or using alignment of stars....

In any event, BTC fundamentals seem to be shaping up very well and as good as can be expected... at least for an upward trajectory into the next few years...... even with a few governmental naysayers who want to regulate, here and there, there seems to be quite a bit of acceptance of BTC and cryptos, overall... or if we may NOT call that BTC acceptance, we may call it a growing governmental tolerance of BTC.... still considerable amount of confusion about BTC remains...   and likely there are going to be various kinds of regulations that may stifle BTC in various respects... and maybe causing some delays in the upward trajectory.. or cause some suppression of BTC prices.   

Who can predict details beyond various speculations to where this bad girl is gonna go and to give a specific timeline for such movements? .. ... I'm thinking the I should plan for the best, yet prepare for the worst.... a kind of hedging of bets...  Prepared to lose all that i have invested, but becoming increasingly confident that losing everything is becoming less and less likely....   NONETHELESS, I remain TOO chicken to go all into BTC..... though going all in would bring a greater chance of becoming BTC wealthy..

[bull1692]

Is trading moving away from Stamp or is volume incredibly low?

[NotLambchop]

All that nervous money is going to just pour into Gox ... owait.

ehhh... what gox have to do with that?

Gox is just an example of "...repeated history of being evaporated due to economic anomalies, black swan events, economic turmoil due to politic-economic situations etc..."
The sort that the nervous money is (presumably) seeking to avoid according to the post I replied to.

TL;DR:  Bitcoin is not the proverbial government bonds -- let's be real.

[macsga]

If Second Market keeps buying close to 2000 BTC a day it should start bumping the price up.    I know that they buy much of their coins off the exchanges but the miners would have to run out at some point wouldn't they?

At this difficulty rate... you bet on it!

[bitcoinvest]

If Second Market keeps buying close to 2000 BTC a day it should start bumping the price up.    I know that they buy much of their coins off the exchanges but the miners would have to run out at some point wouldn't they?

At this difficulty rate... you bet on it!

+1

[aminorex]

Volume is incredibly low.  

I just encountered BlackCoin and I think it's a very interesting pump concept.  The coin switched from PoW to PoS.  Now the only way to mine it is indirectly, and to facilitate that, there is a multipool, bcmultipool.com, which mines scrypt alts, dumps for BTC, and buys BC with BTC.  It then pays out in BC.

The effect is that every 20-60 minutes there is a market order for BC.  The BC bid keeps going up.  Also, whatever scrypt is leading the return on difficulty gets dumped.   If enough miners decide to take payouts in BC in this way, BC would then drain the marketcap of all the scrypt coins.

I like this idea, because I think its good for BTC.  It's a layered market, and it reduces the fog of uncertainty regarding competitors by dumping and crushing the value of a large number of trash coins.  Not sure if it is actually an improvement over just switch-mining with BTC payout, though.  I might be.

[KeyserSoze]

Look at someone like loaded or rpietila. You can bet they are helping their wealthy friends/family get bitcoins and properly secure them.

ummm... Loaded says he buys for people and that he lost coins on Gox. Risto was holding coins for people and lost them all. Might want to re-evaluate "properly secure them."

[podyx]

Look at someone like loaded or rpietila. You can bet they are helping their wealthy friends/family get bitcoins and properly secure them.

ummm... Loaded says he buys for people and that he lost coins on Gox. Risto was holding coins for people and lost them all. Might want to re-evaluate "properly secure them."

they actually lost coins?? loaded and risto? a large percentage?

[KeyserSoze]

they actually lost coins?? loaded and risto? a large percentage?

Yes they lost coins, so they said. Do not know how much. I imagine Loaded is still loaded and Risto apparently just bought a big house he likes to call a castle, so they both seem to be chugging along OK.

[Richy_T]

Look at someone like loaded or rpietila. You can bet they are helping their wealthy friends/family get bitcoins and properly secure them.

ummm... Loaded says he buys for people and that he lost coins on Gox. Risto was holding coins for people and lost them all. Might want to re-evaluate "properly secure them."

they actually lost coins?? loaded and risto? a large percentage?

On a laptop that was stolen from a sauna apparently. If he had a proper backup, he could probably have recovered them if the thief didn't really know what they were doing. I never really heard more about it though.

[JayJuanGee]

Look at someone like loaded or rpietila. You can bet they are helping their wealthy friends/family get bitcoins and properly secure them.

ummm... Loaded says he buys for people and that he lost coins on Gox. Risto was holding coins for people and lost them all. Might want to re-evaluate "properly secure them."

I would feel really badly, if I were entrusted to hold someone's BTC, and then I had put all of them on MT GOX....     If a person wants to sue such a person, the standard would be, reasonable person standard.  Was it reasonable for a trustee to store the BTC on GOX?    The arguments could go either way, and hindsight is 20/20.....

I think that overall, anyone knowledgeable of the BTC world should have diversified out of GOX  - especially if that person was a trustee over the custody of someone else's coins...  - though I could see why it may have been attractive to have some of the BTC in GOX... just NOT 100%..... ...   

All in all, I do NOT blame the victims for having some faith in GOX.... //// and a lot of people have hope that there is a possibility that in due course, they will be reimbursed for a percentage of their GOX holdings.... If I were a gambling man, I am NOT sure exactly where I would put the odds... maybe 50% chance that investors will be reimburse 20% of the value of their Gox holdings...   

I had heard (on one of the bitcoin podcasts) that there is a GOX coin under development (something other than bitcoin builder) that is going to provide the public with a market value in order that investor's can make such a bet through such a coin.  Will be interesting to see the progress and value of such a coin, once it comes out.