Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fcmatt]

Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

I doubt it. Seems like big buys are moving the market up. not very organic growth. the buyers probably want to see if they can get the lemmings to join in then hammer it down come friday/sat. rinse repeat.

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[BitChick]

Isn't it about time for a rally?  It has been a few months.  I would like to think I am a fairly patient person but I have things I want to spend some money on.  C'mon Bitcoin.  Be the "Little Engine that Could."  Let's get the choo choo started.  If you close your eyes and say, "I think I can, I think I can, I think I can"  perhaps we can get this going! 

I posted this yesterday morning.  I think it worked.  

[JorgeStolfi]

From what Iknow, Chinese residents cannot pay for goods or services using bitcoin; banks and other financial institutions cannot deal with bitcoin; bitcoins cannot be sold by e-commerce sites; and e-payment services cannot be used to pay for bitcoin.   So what is left?

Lots of things are left - including:  Storage of value, exportation of capital from country and speculation.

Sorry to repeat, but they cannot "export capital" with bitcoin.

When a Chinese national buys bitcoin with Yuan from other Chinese, transfers the bitcoins to another exchange outside China, and sells them there for dollars,  the net result is that the Chinese national got some dollars from non-Chinese people. All the Yuan remained in China.  The PBoC sees nothing wrong in that, quite the opposite.

That is different from when Chinese citizens exchanges Yuan for dollars at a foreign bank, in China or outside it, since in thsi case the bank effectively becomes owner of some of China's real wealth.

As for store of value, there are zillions of options that are better than bitcoin.

The only substantial thing left is speculation.  I wonder how many people are involved in that.  My guess is less than 10,000, which would be less than 0.001% of the population...

[bassclef]

Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

No, a bit more consolidation left to go imho. $635, $625 or $615 would be good buy targets, in decreasing orders of likelihood. If the pennant breaks down we could go sub $600 for awhile, although that is less likely.

[aminorex]

The only substantial thing left is speculation.  I wonder how many people are involved in that.  My guess is less than 10,000, which would be less than 0.001% of the population...

Wow, that's a lot of upside!  I had thought I was bullish!

[I_bitcoin]

I have to concede that you are correct. The government is not a band of thieves. Thieves don't use violence or threat of violence to steal. Robbers do. The government is a band of robbers.

I quite like the alliteration of "Bandits with Badges".

Bandits Brandishing Badges.

Bandits Brandishing Badges Behave Belligerently Because Bad Bitcoining Begets Big Banks

Okay, that is the best I could do on short notice.

[billyjoeallen]

If you want to continue to assert that the government is the same as a robber, then why should we further engage in such discussion under the circumstances, that I am NOT going to go along with that stupid ass and simplistic framing of the situation.... that on the face of it, should be obvious to any one with brain cells and reason... although maybe the person would need to have at least the equivalent of a 6th grade education...  to be able to engage in more complex thinking... Now I should NOT be insulting 5th graders b/c I am sure that many of them should be able to understand the difference between government and robbers... even some 1st graders will understand such.

You do appear to have a first grader's understanding of the topic at hand. Government robbers are a subset of the larger class of robbers, which includes private sector robbers.
Grizzly bears and dogs are both mammals. The State and bandits are both robbers. They are different, but not in the ways that qualify them as mammals and robbers respectively.

[aminorex]

at this point we definitely have a series of higher lows and higher highs.  if the next low turns above 614.17 it will be pretty unambiguously time to gear up.  the uptrend started about noon on Saturday.  i'm guessing it persists at least until Thursday AM.  just guessing.

[billyjoeallen]

Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

I doubt it. Seems like big buys are moving the market up. not very organic growth. the buyers probably want to see if they can get the lemmings to join in then hammer it down come friday/sat. rinse repeat.

So it's either a low volume melt-up or big buys that aren't organic. What would qualify as a bullish signal to you?

[JorgeStolfi]

For example, Cryptocurrency is claimed by China as commodity, not currency. But how can one get that commodity besides mining? By regulation, All banks or payment processors are forbidden to link with exchanges. This means one just can not buy bitcoin on an exchange, as he can't credit his fiat into an exchange in an allowed way.

This results in a funny situation. Exchanges, banks and traders are all doing openly, but not allowed by government. Do I understand correctly.

My question is, why the Chinese government banned Cryptocurrency but allows everything going?

AFAIK that is not correct, the exchanges are legal and people can transfer money to/from exchanges via banks.  In fact, the only way to move Yuan into or out of exchanges is by bank transfer between Chinese bank bank accounts.  What the Chinese banks cannot do is buy or sell bitcoins themselves, or deal with bitcoin in any way.  To the banks, an exchange are just another corporate customer, and they do not touch any bitcoin, they deal with the Yuan exclusively.

The Chinese government has effectively confined bitcoin to playpens --- the exchanges --- where it can have no significant effect on the economy.   At that point the PBoC apparently stopped worrying about it.

A commercial transaction always has two legs, the client sends the payment and the merchant sends the goods/services.  Even if the first leg were safe and anonymous (which is very hard to ensure), if the transaction is illegal the government can easily catch the customer by the second leg.

[JayJuanGee]

I am NOT sure how my comments attribute me to subscribing to embracing gang violence.   I do admit, however, at at least one point, I suggested that to me it seems that some people are going to need to be forced to contribute to the community b/c if they were left on their own, they would NOT contribute.  I am NOT locked into this thinking, but it seems that some posters in this discussion have suggested that they do NOT want to pay anything,.

There is a world of difference between not wanting to pay and not wanting to be forced to pay.

Sounds like a distinction without a difference, and actually, you seem to be over-emphasizing the "force" aspect, just as one of the people on your team, I believe it may have been Billyjoeallen, asserted that I am failing/refusing to see the gun. 

So in that regard, guys on your team seem to be emphasizing the gun, and I don't think the gun is as important as the weight that you are giving to it...   In my thinking the gun is only important in your state of mind and your consideration of the matter....   And, it seems to me that guys on your team seem to overfocus on the gun b/c guys on your team are so hostile to paying into the community that you guys are truly of the belief that you are being forced and you are feeling sorry for yourselves b/c you want to be "free" from community whatever the fuck that is... detached from society.. live on your own microcosm...

[dnaleor]

I think we are on the verge of breaking out of the downtrend since we saw the all time high.

Several large buys on bitstamp this night. Price jumps, falls back to the previous higher low, consolidates for a few hours, price jumps again, etc...

I hope we see this slow breakout continue for at least a few days, this is good to bring "memory in the market"

[Erdogan]

why do you think, while most people don't want to live in a dog eat dog world, that we will have one in a free society?

naivete at its finest. why did we develop a code of laws to begin with, because everyone is an angel?

The code of law was is partially to protect person and property from violence and theft, partly it is degenerated to suit the robber gangs. Adam Smith, in his studies into the wealth of nations, explained (for me it was him) how the sovereigns in Europe amassed wealth from their citizens by theft, basically to cement the domination structure which they were on the top of. After that it is clear to me that the modern governments do the same, but with leaving just as much freedom as the citizens will not give up, while still robbing most of it for the same purpose. The wealth is doled out to the supporters of the state to preserve it. In stead of one man on the top, now it is a less static elite. Much resources goes to hide how the state works, to degrade the citizens, and to hide the fact that the state can only function as long as the people give away their own sovereignty and money. This is done with lies, threats, violence and a bit of bread and circus.

You can clearly not change this overnight without a plan to replace the functions that the state has now monopolized. But just a new plan with maybe some other people in charge of it, is no progress. A gradual change could be possible. That means less state. Currently, the states all over the world expands their volume, monoplolizing more and more functions. A specially negative development, maybe due to technology, is the state's spying on its citizens, and the power that is misused through the payment systems, and the destructive central planning of the production structure through money and credit expansion and the low interest rate policy.

A practical goal is to stop making it worse, and reintroduce markets where possible.

[JorgeStolfi]

I use [ bitcoins ] at the newsstand by my office building in midtown Manhattan, to buy chewing gum and newspapers.  I use them to make charitable donations to a school in Chad and another in Kyrgyzstan.  I use them to pay rent on my apartment on the UES.  Eventually I should be able to replace most of my uses of fiat with uses of BTC.  I will generally shop at Overstock or TigerDirect when possible, avoiding Amazon until they take bitcoin.

That is because the US Government is still lukewarm about bitcoin.  AFAIK you cannot legally sell chewing gum in China for bitcoin, and I suppose that a corporate entity cannot take rent in bitcoin.  If the US decides that it doesn't like bitcoin after all, you will not be able to do that in the US either.

By the way, are those merchants actually accepting bitcoin, or do they receive dollars through processors like Bitpay?

The dollar was banned in the USSR (and a few other states) but was still quite popular (there) by my understanding.

"Quite popular" is relative.  Surely no e-commerce site in Russia will post prices in dollars or accept payment in dollars.  So what things can you buy with dollars in Russia, away from hotels, airports, and other tourist-frequented places?

[jl2012]

For example, Cryptocurrency is claimed by China as commodity, not currency. But how can one get that commodity besides mining? By regulation, All banks or payment processors are forbidden to link with exchanges. This means one just can not buy bitcoin on an exchange, as he can't credit his fiat into an exchange in an allowed way.

This results in a funny situation. Exchanges, banks and traders are all doing openly, but not allowed by government. Do I understand correctly.

My question is, why the Chinese government banned Cryptocurrency but allows everything going?

AFAIK that is not correct, the exchanges are legal and people can transfer money to/from exchanges via banks.  In fact, the only way to move Yuan into or out of exchanges is by bank transfer between Chinese bank bank accounts.  What the Chinese banks cannot do is buy or sell bitcoins themselves, or deal with bitcoin in any way.  To the banks, an exchange are just another corporate customer, and they do not touch any bitcoin, they deal with the Yuan exclusively.

The Chinese government has effectively confined bitcoin to playpens --- the exchanges --- where it can have no significant effect on the economy.   At that point the PBoC apparently stopped worrying about it.

A commercial transaction always has two legs, the client sends the payment and the merchant sends the goods/services.  Even if the first leg were safe and anonymous (which is very hard to ensure), if the transaction is illegal the government can easily catch the customer by the second leg.

Yes, and please also notice that Huobi, OKCoin and BTCChina are now accepting deposits from ICBC, Agricultural BOC, CCB, and BOC. These are the top 4 banks in China and they are under DIRECT control of the PBOC. So I'm pretty sure PBOC is well aware of what's happening in the past 3 months.

As most speculate, I believe the main reason of banning 3rd party processor is AML.

[aminorex]

I use [ bitcoins ] at the newsstand by my office building in midtown Manhattan, to buy chewing gum and newspapers.  I use them to make charitable donations to a school in Chad and another in Kyrgyzstan.  I use them to pay rent on my apartment on the UES.  Eventually I should be able to replace most of my uses of fiat with uses of BTC.  I will generally shop at Overstock or TigerDirect when possible, avoiding Amazon until they take bitcoin.

That is because the US Government is still lukewarm about bitcoin.  AFAIK you cannot legally sell chewing gum in China for bitcoin, and I suppose that a corporate entity cannot take rent in bitcoin.  If the US decides that it doesn't like bitcoin after all, you will not be able to do that in the US either.

By the way, are those merchants actually accepting bitcoin, or do they receive dollars through processors like Bitpay?

I have specific knowledge that all of them actually accept bitcoin, with the probable exception of TigerDirect.

[fcmatt]

Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

I doubt it. Seems like big buys are moving the market up. not very organic growth. the buyers probably want to see if they can get the lemmings to join in then hammer it down come friday/sat. rinse repeat.

So it's either a low volume melt-up or big buys that aren't organic. What would qualify as a bullish signal to you?

I would like to see a steady erosion of asks over a longer period of time that brings the price up. Not 4K in sudden buys elevating the price for a few days only for a steady erosion of sells that push it back down to where it started. By this Sat i am going to guess that the price will back below 630ish and we will be in the same spot we were in 12 hours ago. People, at this time, have no reason to think a new all time high is close at hand and only a steady progressive change of sentiment will push us higher. I dont see major whale buyers getting in enmasse until sentiment is ripe. The big buys we saw today are going to end up being short term trades. Not long term holds.

[aminorex]

So what things can you buy with dollars in Russia, away from hotels, airports, and other tourist-frequented places?

I cannot speak for Russia, but in NYC I often see signs saying "Euros accepted".  You would not want to be at the business end of their implied exchange rates.

[JayJuanGee]

China may have realized that it cannot stifle bitcoin.. and china has a mixed set of motives including a desire to have some kind of investment vehicle separate from the dollar... .. so China is likely torn about bitcoin and about whether they like it or hate it... maybe they are frienemies with bitcoin?

From what Iknow, Chinese residents cannot pay for goods or services using bitcoin; banks and other financial institutions cannot deal with bitcoin; bitcoins cannot be sold by e-commerce sites; and e-payment services cannot be used to pay for bitcoin.   So what is left?

I believe there are other cointries which have taken similar measures; Russia and India, perhaps? (A thread was started in this forum to build a list the legal status of bitcoin in each coutry, but it never got beyond the first draft.)  Some countries (like the US)  have not banned crypto-coins explicitly, but their existing regulations alerady prevent some of those uses. 

If crypto currencies will only be used for clandestine private commerce between peers, under risk of legal penalties who don't care about regulation, they will have failed succeeded in their goal.

FTFY

Chinese corrupted officers will push Bitcoin price up 1000 times

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/370-chinese-corrupted-officers-will-push-bitcoin-price-up-1000-times

GOOD NEWS!!!  Thanks for that contribution!!!.

John steward mill said something like that, and that was in the 1800s. 

Whats this supposed to imply? That morality is supposed to change with time or something?

We may still cite John Steward Mill and others even though the ideas have been around a while, and maybe there was NO reference to John Steward Mill in the original post.   

I do believe that some things that were said in the 1800s may NOT apply very well in the modern world due to population growth and technological applications that may NOT fit very well into some of the current paradigms.  I was quite a fan of JS Mill during some parts of my life, but in recent times, I have been giving more weight to concerns and needs of community b/c I am of the opinion that some of the JS Mill thinking may NOT apply very well to some social responsibility concepts... there needs to be some balance.. ... yet I am NOT in any position to assert exactly where that balance line should be drawn.. that would be a product of the community, ultimately.. and surely I would think that any society would like to have balances that allow for personal liberty within a community framework, if possible.

JayJuan, check out this video. It pretty much sums things up.

http://youtu.be/muHg86Mys7I

The video portrays general libertarian principles, and my assertion remains that libertarianism can provide a partial framework for consideration, but it does NOT provide all of the answers, when it comes down to actual application, especially when some people may confuse basic concepts... such as creating some version of voluntary consent that the community has to beg for a guy to pay taxes or some ridiculous conception like that.  Ultimately there are theories about social consent and the social contract, and I am NOT opposed to those theories being applicable guides, so long as they are NOT perverted into something that makes little to no sense when people start spouting various anti-government rhetoric.

[adamstgBit]

Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

I doubt it. Seems like big buys are moving the market up. not very organic growth. the buyers probably want to see if they can get the lemmings to join in then hammer it down come friday/sat. rinse repeat.

So it's either a low volume melt-up or big buys that aren't organic. What would qualify as a bullish signal to you?

In Feb the new market participants absorbed the bulk of profit taking / panic selling, now they are fighting over random 200BTC scraps that come along while trying not to push price to high just yet, because cheep coin accumulation.