Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[PoolMinor]

Something to stare at: Off Topic

[adamstgBit]

Something to stare at: Off Topic

thats so tripy

[adamstgBit]

i wonder what the market has been up to all day.

not surprising...

 

[aminorex]

I'm adjusting my volatility channel downward to about 3.25 USD/diem to track the vwap since the post-spike low 8 Mar.  It seems we will break the short-term downtrend resistance,  and I estimate reaching the all-time downtrend resistance on the 19th near 650.  The new vol channel slope corresponds to the moving-average-of-active-wallets growth trend model better than the all-history log trend line at this point.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[PoolMinor]

I had an idea before about a 37 day cycle that ran earlier than expected last month. Instead of Feb 11, it hit around Feb 4. By this same target area I believe the High point was indeed on the 13th of March instead of the 20th.
You may be able to find my original posts concerning this pattern of October 23, November 29, Jan 5, etc. The pattern I saw was an apex/acme on those dates followed by a sharp decrease in price. Yet the pattern abruptly changed to 30 days.
I could post pictures or you can see the original post here. Keep in mind this was strictly a pattern I had noticed.
 

[Adrian-x]

Its spring break. Half the normal traders are out gettin hammered, I know I am.

Ah! "Fundamentals"! 

I recall seeing tumbleweed blowing through here when the universities open. Notable when you analyses the previous wall thread.

I think a lot of traders are students.

[Adrian-x]

Something to stare at: Off Topic

thats so tripy

Is it going up when you look at it or do you see it going down?

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):

             !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !                     
  EXCHANGE   !  03/08 !  03/09 !  03/10 !  03/11 !  03/12 !  03/13 !  03/14 !  03/15 ! Currencies considered

  BTC-e      |   8.71 |   6.52 |   7.16 |   5.09 |   7.96 |   7.43 |   3.76 |   2.55 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  Bitstamp   |   9.70 |   9.12 |  13.40 |   9.17 |  12.70 |   6.73 |   8.68 |   2.20 | USD                 
  BitFinEx   |  10.97 |   8.29 |  11.60 |   3.63 |   7.29 |   3.31 |   5.53 |   1.74 | USD                 
  Kraken     |   0.55 |   0.64 |   0.57 |   0.45 |   0.56 |   0.40 |   0.48 |   0.34 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.31 |   0.20 |   0.39 |   0.41 |   0.37 |   0.35 |   0.20 |   0.12 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |   0.12 |   0.15 |   0.13 |   0.18 |   0.13 |   0.13 |   0.11 |   0.06 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |   0.03 |   0.02 |   0.05 |   0.06 |   0.04 |   0.03 |   0.06 |   0.03 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   |  30.39 |  24.94 |  33.30 |  18.99 |  29.05 |  18.38 |  18.82 |   7.04 |                     

  OKCoin     | 146.46 | 136.24 | 119.00 |  68.50 |  90.60 |  60.70 |  97.80 |  55.40 | CNY                 
  Huobi      | 119.46 | 103.51 |  95.10 |  55.00 |  77.90 |  65.40 |  78.40 |  36.50 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |   5.08 |   4.24 |   3.34 |   3.11 |   3.16 |   2.89 |   2.97 |   1.13 | CNY                 
  Bter       |   0.28 |   0.21 |   0.27 |   0.34 |   0.49 |   0.26 |   0.19 |   0.35 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 271.28 | 244.20 | 217.71 | 126.95 | 172.15 | 129.25 | 179.36 |  93.38 |                     

  TOTAL      | 301.67 | 269.14 | 251.01 | 145.94 | 201.20 | 147.63 | 198.18 | 100.42 |                     

All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

[Le Happy Merchant]

Stock up on the Red Bull and get some sleep. The fireworks always start when you least expect it.

I expect it to be the day I leave this town for Asia.

So, 3/20/15

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

The total trade volume today (Sat Mar/15 00:00-23:59 UTC), at the exchanges that I monitor, was just a little over 100 kBTC.  That is 49% less than yesterday, and 67% less than last Saturday Mar/08.

Indeed, the last three times since the total daily volume has been this low or lower were

  Jan/29--Feb/05 (volumes ranging from ~54 to ~91 kBTC): Chinese New Year holidays, banks closed in China.
  Sunday Feb/19 (~95 kBTC): eve of MtGOX's second announcement.
  Sunday Mar/02 (~94 kBTC): perhaps eve of Bloomberg TV "important announcement"?

Volume outside China dropped 63%, from 19 kBTC to a ridiculous 7 kBTC.  All exchanges lost volume, the largest ones more in proportion. BTC-e (with 2.55 kBTC) returned to first place, followed by Bitstamp (2.20) and Bitfinex (1.74).

Volume in China dropped 48% (from 179 to 93 kBTC).  OKCoin (59% of the Chinese total) increased its advantage over Huobi (39%). The dwarf exchange Bter was the only one that I monitor that had more trade than yesterday, from 0.19 to 0.35 kBTC.

China's slice of the total volume increased again, from 91% to 93%.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday Mar/16

No prediction today, gotcha!

The last two days were False Slumber Points, a.k.a. Lignite Albertosauruses, when Huobi's traders kept trading into the night.  By the Method, those two data points are not reliable data and therefore there is no trend to extrapolate.   (Actually, in the morning from Friday to Saturday some Huobi client logged in at 03:00 am and traded just enough to spoil my data, then went back to bed. )

This is quite bizarre since such late-night trading at Huobi usually occurs only on days with extreme price changes.  Were it not for the Rules, I coud easily predict for tomorrow the same price as today.

Anyway I am using the pause to make the Method a little less unscientific.  Stay tuned.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[ in the first two we were ] waiting for some news from gox

Indeed, for the first and second press releases, due Feb/10 and Feb/20; the drops were clearly due to disappointment  and the claim of "bug in bitcoin"  (Although the tense wait for the first was on Sun Feb/09 not  Thu Feb/06, right?).

There seems to be no consensus about the causes of the third minimum-volume day Mar/02 and the rally on Mar/03.  The immediate cause of the latter was a huge buy in Bitstamp.  However I recall that there were big expectations about an upcoming Bloomberg TV announcement; could that be it? (But that was a flop, and yet the price rallied...

Regarding the anticipated Bloomberg TV announcement and then the occurrence of the TV announcement.  The rally seemed to occur about 24 hours prior to the TV announcement - before we knew what was the announcement, we got a BTC price rise; however, once the announcement occurred, we receive nearly immediate decline.    Whether the anticipation caused the upward price rally and the disappointment caused the decline in price, that would be for someone other than me to argue such b/c I am unclear about whether something else may have been occurring at that same time to cause those price movements.

[JorgeStolfi]

The Guardian, March 14, 2014:
MtGox knowingly traded non-existent bitcoins for two weeks, filing shows
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/14/mtgox-knowingly-traded-non-existent-bitcoins-for-two-weeks-filing-shows

[JorgeStolfi]

From that Guardian article:

The latest news of MtGox’s troubles comes against the disappearance of yet another bitcoin exchange. Bitcurex, a polish bitcoin exchange, was apparently hacked on Friday morning. Both the Zloty and Euro exchanges are now offline, and users report seeing the prices of bitcoin shoot up shortly beforehand, suggesting that the site’s coins were removed.

[Adrian-x]

[ in the first two we were ] waiting for some news from gox

Indeed, for the first and second press releases, due Feb/10 and Feb/20; the drops were clearly due to disappointment  and the claim of "bug in bitcoin"  (Although the tense wait for the first was on Sun Feb/09 not  Thu Feb/06, right?).

There seems to be no consensus about the causes of the third minimum-volume day Mar/02 and the rally on Mar/03.  The immediate cause of the latter was a huge buy in Bitstamp.  However I recall that there were big expectations about an upcoming Bloomberg TV announcement; could that be it? (But that was a flop, and yet the price rallied...

Regarding the anticipated Bloomberg TV announcement and then the occurrence of the TV announcement.  The rally seemed to occur about 24 hours prior to the TV announcement - before we knew what was the announcement, we got a BTC price rise; however, once the announcement occurred, we receive nearly immediate decline.    Whether the anticipation caused the upward price rally and the disappointment caused the decline in price, that would be for someone other than me to argue such b/c I am unclear about whether something else may have been occurring at that same time to cause those price movements.

I think it was solely the blockchain / Bloomberg announcement. It had mixed reception most traders thought there was no innovation there as they have found an in house solution to zeroblock, but the anticipation was new tools for new traders.

[cAPSLOCK]

2 firsts we're waiting for some news from gox

1 goose is cooked.  Has been.  Will be.  Over.
2 news will be slow to come.  Its in legal government zone now.  Slooooooow.

You are waiting for something not coming.

{Edit} ah now I see someone more correctly interpreted your post as " in the past we were waiting for news". That makes more sense.

[JayJuanGee]

The Guardian, March 14, 2014:
MtGox knowingly traded non-existent bitcoins for two weeks, filing shows
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/14/mtgox-knowingly-traded-non-existent-bitcoins-for-two-weeks-filing-shows

I figured that we would be finding out some information like this b/c once Gox knew that it did NOT have the BTC, that may have triggered some kind of obligation for them to either stop doing business completely or to disclose that they did NOT have BTC - otherwise, fraud allegations could likely be successfully proven.