Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Yes, there are bad actors and yes the scandal may implicate other players. We do want to know what happened but we're burnt out on this story. [ ... ] You dwell on the negative always.

Whatever happened at MtGOX, it is certain that some 500,000 BTC now belong to a thief or scammer.  Added to other scams and thefts, known and unknown, it may be that more than 1 million BTC now belong to bitcoin criminals.  If those people go unpunished and get to keep their bitcoins, such crimes will not stop with MtGOX.

So, if bitcoin succeeds like his most ardent fans believe, perhaps 10% of all the money supply in the world will belong to criminals.  You want me to root for that? 

 

[Peter R]

Whatever happened at MtGOX, it is certain that some 500,000 BTC now belong to a thief or scammer. 

This isn't certain at all.  Personally, I think the most likely explanation is that the coins were stollen many years ago and sold off explaining the bitcoin bear market of 2011.  MtGox has been running a fractional reserve ever since [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0].  It's also possible that many of the missing coins have gone to bitcoin heaven (lost private keys), or have been seized by an authority.  

I think that all 750,000 BTC currently belonging to a single thief of scammer is the least likely scenario.

[macsga]

Still no CCMF today...

[JayJuanGee]

As the bitcoin bulls say, MtGOX is MtGOX, and bitcoin is bitcoin.  The coin will succeed or fail no matter what the bears think.

But the fact that the "bitcoin community" does not want to know what happened inside MtGOX, [ ... ]

That's not really a "fact", more your opinion of what other people may think.

I'm interested, just mindful that there's likely going to be a long wait before before we have any news.

Well, I belive it is a "google fact", in that I can't find any new analyses; and at least this site, which had the database on line and seemed to have made some interesting discoveries, has shut down.

I guess I don't understand "Google fact" - it still seems a massive jump from "I couldn't find any new analyses on Google" to "the 'bitcoin community' does not want to know what happened".

this is a very good point    LMGTFY.    I appreciate a lot of the contributions of Jorge b/c frequently he seems to be providing facts along with his various opinions; however, every once in a while we get these zingers of logical leaps  that are very misleading....   And really, I believe that Jorge is smarter than that... and who the fuck is going to conclude that the whole bitcoin community thinks one thing or another based on what a few in the community may be saying.... or even if some kind of dominant theme seems to exist...

[JayJuanGee]

Yes, there are bad actors and yes the scandal may implicate other players. We do want to know what happened but we're burnt out on this story. [ ... ] You dwell on the negative always.

Whatever happened at MtGOX, it is certain that some 500,000 BTC now belong to a thief or scammer.  Added to other scams and thefts, known and unknown, it may be that more than 1 million BTC now belong to bitcoin criminals.  If those people go unpunished and get to keep their bitcoins, such crimes will not stop with MtGOX.

So, if bitcoin succeeds like his most ardent fans believe, perhaps 10% of all the money supply in the world will belong to criminals.  You want me to root for that? 

 

The more you attempt to defend this line of logic, the more ridiculous it begins to seem. 

I am fairly certain that each dollar that has been in existence for more than a couple of years, has passed through the hands of at least 10 criminals.  NOW certainly, the newly printed dollars may NOT yet had opportunities to pass through the hands of more than one or two criminals b/c those dollars are going straight to the banking criminals who are hoarding those dollars.. .or perhaps investing them in some off shore location.. such as china or germany, where they can get greater return than they perceive to be able to get if they were to invest those dollars in the US of A...

[FullLife]

I love beer, its the last day of spring break, and i'm already 10 deep into killing 48 bud lights today.

You have my condolences.

This

[KeyserSoze]

But the fact that the "bitcoin community" does not want to know what happened inside MtGOX...

meanwhile several law suits are moving forward in order to find out what went on, and attempting to recoup losses

Well, I belive it is a "google fact", in that I can't find any new analyses...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidence_of_absence

Whatever happened at MtGOX, it is certain that some 500,000 BTC now belong to a thief or scammer.

so you know for a fact that just from Gox alone that it is not a possibility keys were lost or Bitcoins were destroyed? Please provide proof. I don't think it is likely coins were destroyed but that doesn't equate to certainty. It's embarrassing to have to teach a professor this.

Added to other scams and thefts, known and unknown, it may be that more than 1 million BTC now belong to bitcoin criminals.

...and it may not. Perhaps you'll perform an academic coin flip to decide this as well instead of finding facts.

So, if bitcoin succeeds like his most ardent fans believe, perhaps 10% of all the money supply in the world will belong to criminals.

...if...perhaps... you could do a study on how much USD and Brazilian Real belongs to criminals since it seems to be a concern for you. Someone might think it's hypocritical of you to not do so.

[KeyserSoze]

I still need to go to the US one day and go see for myself if these ridiculous cliches are actually true. I've heard you guys don't actually like beer, you just like to pee a lot 

We had some exchange students in our family for some months on a few separate occasions. I asked one group what was the most surprising thing about America and his reply was "yellow school buses." He said that growing up he heard crazy stories over and over that school buses in America were all yellow. He got here and found it was mostly true. He thought it was hilarious. 

I don't know much about the history of beer except that it is ancient food. As for America's beer history, I have no idea how it ended up that this country spent so many years stuck with 2 main watered down beers (Budweiser, Miller) for so long. Of course there were other semi-popular regionals, then Coors became #3 for a while. Bud, Miller, Coors. Bud Miller, Coors. Occasionally some Pabst, National Bohemian, Milwaukee's Best.

I worked at a liquor store for a chunk of years as a young fella. We were "the" liquor store in our area because we had a large selection. It was considered pretty mind-boggling that we carried 20 different beers. Now, of course, there are 20 different beers on one shelf in that store, and many shelves.

I recall around the late 80's we started getting a few micro-brews ("craft beers") as that niche was taking off here. Pete's Wicked Ale became my favorite until @1998 when they were bought and the flavour changed. But during those years there was an explosion, and now we have many. I love trying different beers but I usually go with a stout when I have a chance, and go for Guinness when it is on tap. I have a bottle of 1987 Hardy's Ale in the kitchen waiting for something to celebrate.

[bassclef]

Whatever happened at MtGOX, it is certain that some 500,000 BTC now belong to a thief or scammer.  Added to other scams and thefts, known and unknown, it may be that more than 1 million BTC now belong to bitcoin criminals.  If those people go unpunished and get to keep their bitcoins, such crimes will not stop with MtGOX.

So, if bitcoin succeeds like his most ardent fans believe, perhaps 10% of all the money supply in the world will belong to criminals.  You want me to root for that? 

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/composition-division

[surfer43]

Explanation

Hi bitcoin. Will you wake up? It's getting pretty boring  

[elasticband]

tempted to dump all my btc into ltc, just for the entertainment of price swings again.....

trading range on stamp in none existent

[surfer43]

Whatever happened at MtGOX, it is certain that some 500,000 BTC now belong to a thief or scammer.  Added to other scams and thefts, known and unknown, it may be that more than 1 million BTC now belong to bitcoin criminals.  If those people go unpunished and get to keep their bitcoins, such crimes will not stop with MtGOX.

So, if bitcoin succeeds like his most ardent fans believe, perhaps 10% of all the money supply in the world will belong to criminals.  You want me to root for that? 

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/composition-division

Thanks for that website. This one will come in handy. The internet can't seem to understand it

[Richy_T]

I still need to go to the US one day and go see for myself if these ridiculous cliches are actually true. I've heard you guys don't actually like beer, you just like to pee a lot 

There are actually some really good beers over here now. I think finally quality of the beer finally became more important than drinking American swill-water.

[JorgeStolfi]

News of overall positive changes from Bitfinex today:

Dear Customers,

In our ongoing effort to deliver the very best in cryptocurrency trading, Bitfinex is pleased to announce several changes and enhancements that will be effective on March 15th 2014 at 24:00:00 UTC.

We have decided to adjust the commission structure to reward traders that “add liquidity” to the order book.  [ ... ]

Regards,
The Bitfinex Team
https://www.bitfinex.com/

Their trade volume yesterday (Sat Mar/15 00:00--23:59 UTC) was 1.74 kBTC, the lowest since they opened according to Bitcoinwisdom. Today (Sun Mar/16) it may be even lower: 1.30 kBTC so far, only 3 hours left.

Granted that these two days have been low for all exchanges (Bitfinex lost 69% from Friday to Saturday, Bitstamp lost 75%), and that their new fee structure (if their announcement is taken literally) holds only for Mar/16, not for Mar/15.  However the drop seems to be quite abrupt at Mar/15 00:00 UTC, and the new fees did not seem to be of much help today.

[aminorex]

When in new york go to mcsorleys east village for their brilliant red, also sold at mustang sallys times square.  Pony bar upper east offers about 20 micros on any given day.  Drink 100 for a free tshirt.

[bassclef]

I still need to go to the US one day and go see for myself if these ridiculous cliches are actually true. I've heard you guys don't actually like beer, you just like to pee a lot 

There are actually some really good beers over here now. I think finally quality of the beer finally became more important than drinking American swill-water.

With so many craft breweries springing up there is pretty amazing beer in the US. Imperial stouts that taste like dark chocolate, dry-hopped IPAs that taste like sweet grapefruit... basically variations and hybrids of existing styles in all strengths and flavors. Meades, barleywines, sours... the list goes on. There are a dozen small breweries in my city alone and most towns have at least one, usually started by a couple guys brewing in their basement.

[knightcoin]

probably a another M$ bug ...

[JorgeStolfi]

I am fairly certain that each dollar that has been in existence for more than a couple of years, has passed through the hands of at least 10 criminals.

That is quite different than "10% of the money supply in the world is in the hands of common criminals".

But the fact that the "bitcoin community" does not want to know what happened inside MtGOX...

meanwhile several law suits are moving forward in order to find out what went on, and attempting to recoup losses [ ... ]

I know of one lawsuit in the US that alleges that MtGOX has failed to properly secure the bitcoins that were deposited there.  It is not clear that it will lead to an investigation of what happened to the coins; and anyway it has been stalled by the Chapter 15 filing (above).  Are there others?

To be more specific: I did not see any sign that the celebrities of the bitcoin scene or the Shrem Karpeles & Friends Foundation (a.k.a. Bitcoin Foundation) are keen on getting to the truth.  (Yes, this is not a Scientific-Academic Result; it is just a speculation if you wish, but this is the 'Speculation' sub-forum, isn't it?  )

Whatever happened at MtGOX, it is certain that some 500,000 BTC now belong to a thief or scammer.

so you know for a fact that just from Gox alone that it is not a possibility keys were lost or Bitcoins were destroyed? Please provide proof. I don't think it is likely coins were destroyed but that doesn't equate to certainty.

Careful, I believe I was called a retard or worse in this thread, for suggesting that Mark could have lost the keys -- back when 'MtGOX is insolvent' was still a heresy. 

Yes, admitted, it is possible that those 500,000 bitcoins (or more, perhaps 750,000 ?) were simply lost, or have been sold already to innocent people (who did not know that they were stolen).   In these cases, my statement above would be false.  But it is at least as likely that someone now has got those coins, knowing that they rightfully belong to MtGOX clients.   That someone may be Mark, a hacker, an insider, or someone who bought the coins off market from Mark knowing that they were not his to sell.

So, together with all the other hacks and scams, there is at least the strong possibility that a few common criminals now have around 10% of all bitcoins.  That "strong possibility" is already good munition for the enemies of bitcoin.  (Can one say that a few common criminals control 10% of all national currency supply in the word?) Thus bitcoiners, not the skeptics, should be the most interested in finding out the truth.

As for my opinion on what really happened, the theory that I find most likely at the moment is that Mark sold the coins off-market, before the Nov/2013 rally.  (By the way, I was called a retard also for suggesting this possibility, when MtGOX was still "solvent".)  At the time I did not know of the Coinlab lawsuit.  Recently I saw (on reddit?) an estimate that 750,000 BTC x 100 USD/BTC = 75,000,000 USD = the Coinlab claim; but I do not know whether the dates are consistent with that price.

If Mark sold the coins, the buyer would surely do whatever he can to prevent the truth to come out, since he may then have to return the coins and may be criminally charged for buying stolen property.  Therefore, according to the Bayes-McGrath theorem, this must be the truth. 

[adamstgBit]

[aminorex]

"Retard" is only wielded by the immature and atavistic. I would suggest wearing it as a badge of honor, but that I would not wish to be known by such a poor tier of enemies.