Any idea why the price is going down? I was thinking about normal short-term volatility but it's going down 5% already. Maybe some FUD or sth?
No need to start to get excited until the correction is around 12%.
Presuming $46,788 as our local top, a 12% correction would be around $41,200, and once the correction gets to 15% ($39,800-ish), then it is time to panic.
My current fuck you status projection (presuming $2million as entry level fuck you status) does show that in 10 years (august 2031), it may well take 13.5 BTC to reach fuck you status
10
years to 148K/btc??? since when did you become so bearish?
10
months now.. i can see that as a fairly reasonable guess (SOMA analysis mode of course)
I know that sometimes I might not be very clear in terms of my ongoing desires to attempt to not get overly excited by BTC spot prices (especially peakening tops), so you realize that I have been attempting to make these BTC value projections based on ongoing anticipation of BTC extreme bottoms and not been going by spot price to attempt to fairly assess value (yes I know that people are hesitant to assess BTC value based on anticipated extreme bottoms), but on a personal level I consider it to be safer, especially for anyone who may well be considering NOT engaging in any kinds of extreme diversifications out of BTC and instead deciding to retain a lot of their value in BTC on an ongoing basis and in spite of ongoing and seeming inevitable price volatility.
Any questions? Did I miss some obvious problematic areas? Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps? perhaps?
Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me
I did it on Excel, so sure there could be a mistake in the formulas that I inputted..
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like
For sure if the chart is referring to bottoms (and presumptively extreme bottoms), then if the extreme bottom is $1million, the actual spot price or even the top would potentially (and even likely) be quite a bit higher than the listed bottom prices that correspond with each of the dates on the chart.
You likely realize that I tend to be a bit of a critic of those who are making BTC price predictions (especially short term), so for sure, I like to attempt to clearly state my various presumptions, so in that regard, if any of the presumptions change along the way (based on either facts or logic), then the projections are going to need to be tweaked to account for the changes in presumptions (actual on the ground facts / logic changes).
Any questions? Did I miss some obvious problematic areas? Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps? perhaps?
Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like
Ooooow already between now and 20y thats fast….
Hahahahaha
Of course, you are joking a wee bit dude (I can tell by the rolling of the eyes part), but really if you think about that there are relatively conservative estimates of getting a 20x price increase in 20 years, that is still a pretty damned decent return, so even just placing 1% to 10% of your investment portfolio into BTC has decent chances of outperforming other assets in your portfolio..
Surely, more whimpy or hesitant folks would error on the side of 1%, and more aggressive investors may well shoot for 10%.. and still people who study BTC the asset class might decide to go even more aggressive, even though a 10% allocation will likely still provide a considerable amount of wealth - and not even be outrageous in terms of overall allocation percentage.
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