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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26371390 times)
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August 13, 2021, 01:27:29 AM
Merited by dragonvslinux (1)

cyclic potentials
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August 13, 2021, 02:01:31 AM


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August 13, 2021, 02:04:21 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)

cheers gentlemen

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August 13, 2021, 02:26:54 AM
Last edit: August 13, 2021, 02:48:39 AM by Biodom

I love it how people here like to speculate about members 'imaginary' stashes and 'f-k you' (FU) levels. Albeit, I am now logged in and don't see it anymore.
If someone tells me that they are not affected in the slightest when btc drops (or gains) 50% in a week, I would say...good for you.

Here is my description of FU levels for luls.

Lvl0 ~$2mil, a good/great number in a 3rd world country, a good FU number in the cheaper parts of US, NOT FU on the coasts.

Lvl1 ~$10 mil, a serious money. If you diworsify this amount from btc into stonks like VT (not rec this by any stretch of imagination), you would get 160-180 thou/year in divvies and could borrow against your equity to get ridiculously low % loans (like LIBOR [currently 0.12%]+0.5-0.75%). Considering that VT long term appreciation rate is ~7-8%, you are fine. FU, but not really rich.

Lvl2 ~$100 mil. Money is not a problem, you can easily buy multiple residencies in nice places (at least 3-4). Easy to generate $1.5mil-1.8mil/year in divvies plus approx $7 mil (on average) in appreciation/year. With ~$7 mil of annual budget, you are 'rich' in $$ terms.

Lvl3 ~$1000mil (1bil). You can meet anybody you want, politicians ask you for advice and for campaign contribs. Somewhere between Lvl2 and Lvl3 you become a "real" player.

EDIT: the funny thing is, if btc will ever reach the Hal Finney number ($10mil/btc) or PlanB (5mil/btc), then 20BTC bought, say, either in 2013 or 214-2015 for $4-5K (total) would be $100-200mil...that hat(funny typo!) person would be a player (if he/she would be able to hodl through). No wonder that the guy who sold the house for btc when btc was $900 now has btc secured in 4-6 locations (on all continents, lol).
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August 13, 2021, 02:37:51 AM
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August 13, 2021, 02:40:59 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



chop chop 45k gogo
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August 13, 2021, 02:41:39 AM

If you guys don't know about him, he was the one who found out that Bitcoin is playing Wyckoff in April and was about to crash.


Now, he predicted this for our Bitcoin:


I really believe on his capabilities and I am sure, this was the last Dip Bitcoin had in the upcoming bull run.
Stay strong. We are about to take off.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRsAEo9tcSqPnPdcgYFCbog
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August 13, 2021, 03:01:35 AM


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August 13, 2021, 03:29:53 AM



chop chop 50k gogo

By Friday night🍀🤞🙏
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August 13, 2021, 04:01:25 AM


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August 13, 2021, 04:33:02 AM



chop chop 50k gogo

By Friday night🍀🤞🙏

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August 13, 2021, 04:35:50 AM

......you might be way short of fuck you status.

.....you are only 1/10 of the way to fuck you status .....
...your personal entry-level fuck you status,......
...as their entry level fuck you status... .....

Well fuck me silly, Jay!   (#nohomo)...  thats a fuck load of fuck you status, for fucks sake...

Fair enough that I would prefer NOT to be repetitive or redundant, if possible.

We could give it another term, but then the meaning might get lost, no?

What about a poll or a thread in which we attempt to find a better way of describing what we mean and meaning what we say?

Any suggestion(s)?

"Fuck you" status is meant to describe getting to a financial position in which there is absolutely no need to carry out any kind of work - except on your own terms.. frequently used to describe a situation in which someone is either forced into a job or carrying out various contracts or running a business for money or some kind of frequent occurrence of having to maintain medical insurance (at least in the US - and maybe some other places that might get medical insurance through their work).

Of course, there are various retirement systems too that cause people to work while the amount of value in those systems grow, and people are likely penalized if they stop working.. and the benefit level might go down if there are long periods of not contributing into the system (and surely age requirements before drawing from such systems are even possible). 

The factors to be weighed in getting to fuck you status are going to differ based on individual circumstances for sure - and the example that I used with Biodom was his own statements from a few years ago in which he was seeming to be somewhat argumentative (for argument sake it seems) in regards to even how much it might take in his particular case to get to fuck you status, with him seeming to want to suggest that my numbers were way too low to even be practical for a guy like him, and he had required something like 6x or more principle for the entry level to fuck you status that I had then described as being entry level at $1 million (sure sometime after March 2020, I thought it was more accurate to raise that entry level number to $2 million to account for some of the seeming craziness of the new world monetary circumstances that had then come to greater light).

By the way, even though it may seem that I get a lot of pleasure out of frequently using the word "fuck", I surely would prefer if we were able to get a better descriptor that may well even keep the seemingly repetitiveness of using the same word over and over down....

By the way, people like to use descriptors such as financial independence or passive income status.. and those surely do not seem very accurate in their descriptiveness.. so maybe I have been using "fuck you" status for so long that I have dumbed my own lil selfie out of creative word use? perhaps? perhaps?

Anyone? Anyone?
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August 13, 2021, 04:52:32 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), JimboToronto (1), Biodom (1), Arriemoller (1)

Tied up in a legal dispute all week with a neighbor contesting my official signed and stamped survey. Had to retain a lawyer and officially get the Sheriff's Office notified and on-site for a day next week.

Going to leverage my ~Lvl2 current FU status to show these irrational country fucktards what happens when they try to push a a polite, neighborly black man around, who is trying to put up a new fence.

I'm prepared to launch a multi-million dollar lawsuit against these fucktards in the courts for screwing with my work crew, and at the end of all this, going to sue for court costs, and they'll need to sell me their land to cover their costs.

Assholes fucked with the wrong guy.

Holy crap has life been busy.

Stay strong, brothers.

We gonna be stupid rich soon, yo.

Love (nohomo),

Bob

Lvl1 ~$10 mil, a serious money. If you diworsify this amount from btc into stonks like VT (not rec this by any stretch of imagination), you would get 160-180 thou/year in divvies and could borrow against your equity to get ridiculously low % loans (like LIBOR [currently 0.12%]+0.5-0.75%). Considering that VT long term appreciation rate is ~7-8%, you are fine. FU, but not really rich.

Lvl2 ~$100 mil. Money is not a problem, you can easily buy multiple residencies in nice places (at least 3-4). Easy to generate $1.5mil-1.8mil/year in divvies plus approx $7 mil (on average) in appreciation/year. With ~$7 mil of annual budget, you are 'rich' in $$ terms.
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August 13, 2021, 05:01:27 AM


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August 13, 2021, 05:55:32 AM



Is Binance gradually becoming a drama queen? One release too many...
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August 13, 2021, 06:00:39 AM

Amount of Bitcoins you need to become a millionaire:

2010: 2000000 BTC
2015: 4000 BTC
2020: 85.61 BTC
Today: 22.72 BTC
2025: 5 BTC

Fill those 5 BTC bag and wait just more 4 years.
Do not believe on me, believe on the stats.

Have a good day ahead.  Wink
Holding bitcoin by making investment at an early phase is best you can do and then simply wait for some time nothing else.The Winklevoss twins got $65 million compensation from Mark Zuckerberg and invested in bitcoin and now see they both are at $3 billion each launching Gemini and being visionary.They said "bitcoin is not going to be dead and will stay here for long" and now see those who advised them are trying to get bitcoin while they have already made networth out of it.So by the end of 2021 if we see $100k or even $80k around then in 2025 the expected prices will be 2-3x more taking them above $200k and golden crossover for many times.Market cap is increasing at Faster pace with institutional and retail investment and could cross $1.5 trillion within a year with more adoption so holding even 1BTC would be enough also.But it will be best if you try to accumulate more of them.
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August 13, 2021, 06:01:34 AM


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August 13, 2021, 06:26:55 AM

I love it how people here like to speculate about members 'imaginary' stashes and 'f-k you' (FU) levels. Albeit, I am now logged in and don't see it anymore.

Hahahaha  it's funny how some people seem to get so much glee to talk about other people who they are supposedly ignoring, but cannot resist to read that ideas of such other people whom they had been supposedly ignoring but cannot resist commenting back, as a bonus.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


If someone tells me that they are not affected in the slightest when btc drops (or gains) 50% in a week, I would say...good for you.

There are some people like that, but I doubt that too many people are claiming to NOT be affected at all, but still the point remains that if the cushion is so god damned great and there remains a decent amount of confidence in the strength of the underlying investment, then why get so worked up about what are likely somewhat normal cycles that take place in this particular asset class.. Yes, it got corrected by around 56% for that whole damned cycle and some of that took place in very short periods of time.. but it was likely not even as close as bad as your panicking little whinny FUD spreading ass was making it out to be...especially if you consider the actual context of having had gone up around 6.5x in about 7 months, and then the worst of the correction still had the price of bitcoin up nearly 3x from that starting point.. and sure some whiners like you were proclaiming some high levels of certainty that for sure we were going to get down to less than 2x up and even only 50% up, which still would have been up and should have all been appreciated for buying opportunities rather than crying about the sky supposedly falling when it did not end up happening, and the buying opportunities were likely anywhere in those most doldrums of times of 40% to 56% correction areas that could start to look like pretty decent bargains after more time passes and perhaps even we never get back to anything even near those prices ever again... perhaps? perhaps?  none of us know and even uie poo-ie seem to recognize that sometimes BTC prices do not come back down to their correction prices that had occurred during a bull market.

But sure you had several times clearly and unambiguously and even way the fuck prematurely proclaimed that we were in a bear market.. which is a bunch of bullshit if you were trying to get people to either sell some or all of their bitcoin after an already crash or to cause vulnerable peeps to not buy during the time that they should have been buying.  Hard to really feel sorry for you, when you seem to have pretty damned great inclinations to run as soon as we are anywhere near the trenches and especially that you seem to be trying to get others to run along with you before they are even feeling any inclinations to run.. but whatever, you do you, you whiner who frequently wants to reframe history during the sunnier days to suggest that you were with us the whole time.. blah blah blah.



Here is my description of FU levels for luls.

Lvl0 ~$2mil, a good/great number in a 3rd world country, a good FU number in the cheaper parts of US, NOT FU on the coasts.

Ok.. you might be coming around a bit to appreciate that there is a bit of an entry-level idea and to be move off of your your $6 million bullshit from earlier (which would be $12 million-ish now).

By the way, I am suggesting $2 million to be an attempt at a broad-appeal common man fuck you status, and surely attempt to capture a lot of people.. surely not the more elite or the ones with already high standards that they want to (hesitant to say "need to") maintain.

If we are talking about 3rd world countries, it is quite likely that we could still have a lot of folks with quite less than $2million as their entry-level into fuck you status, even $500k-ish or perhaps lower.  $500k of principle couple very well generate $1,667 per month of passive income and surely be enough to live quite well in a lot of places around the world without ever having to work again...

I might need to remind you that the entry level to fuck you status is merely getting to a point that you can live off of the income without ever having to work again.  It does not mean that you are at the top of society or whatever other extra bullshit requirements that you are seeming to want to attribute to entry-level fuck you status.

Lvl1 ~$10 mil, a serious money. If you diworsify this amount from btc into stonks like VT (not rec this by any stretch of imagination), you would get 160-180 thou/year in divvies and could borrow against your equity to get ridiculously low % loans (like LIBOR [currently 0.12%]+0.5-0.75%). Considering that VT long term appreciation rate is ~7-8%, you are fine. FU, but not really rich.

Again, seems that you are engaged in a decent amount of unnecessary muddying.  Of course, at various times in the past, we had talked about various levels of richie status, so I am not even denying or ignoring the various higher levels of richie status beyond the general entry level fuck you status.. which seems to be currently at $2 million.  

Furthermore your various ways of describing how to maintain your principle or to generate value off of your principle can be applied at any level of income, you don't need $10million to employ some of those various optional techniques if you so choose.

Lvl2 ~$100 mil. Money is not a problem, you can easily buy multiple residencies in nice places (at least 3-4). Easy to generate $1.5mil-1.8mil/year in divvies plus approx $7 mil (on average) in appreciation/year. With ~$7 mil of annual budget, you are 'rich' in $$ terms.

Money is not necessarily a problem at the entry level of $2 million, either...so sure you can buy more things with more money.. but whatever those are just higher levels and again just seeming to muddy the points.. and I am not even saying that people should not want to aspire to having higher levels of richie.. and perhaps higher levels of richie will come anyhow after the fuck you entry level had already been reached.

Let's say for example, someone was already getting pretty damned close to fuck you status when BTC prices were moving around in the $8-$9k range, so when BTC prices got above $10k and stayed there, then moved from $10k to nearly $65k, there could be arguments that at that point, such person had gone to around 8x of the entry-level fuck you status, at least based on the BTC spot price, and sure when the BTC price corrected back down to 30k-ish the person was ONLY around 4x above entry level fuck you status, and sure there might have been some fears developing that the BTC price could drop as low as $15k which would have been close to only 2x entry-level fuck you status.  So surely the level of richie status may have been affected, but there still was a pretty decent level of cushion beyond the entry-level fuck you status .. including that the materiality of the matter did not ever go much more below 4x fuck you entry level so the fear of going down lower did not end up materializing...

Were precautions needed for such person that would not have been necessary for people who had already been at 10x fuck you status around $8-$9k, sure, so surely the person lower on the richie status level was going to feel somewhat more insecure as compared with the guy who had 10x more value, but the points seem to be way more abstract than some of the more basic discussions that I believe that we are attempting to have hear in terms of ideas of broader appeal such as even just figuring out how much it might take to get to fuck you status and perhaps how to attempt to maintain such status or not to pull the fuck you lever too soon rather than getting into too many personal details that have to do with the lifestyles of the rich and famous that are 10x higher or even 100x higher than entry level fuck you status.


Lvl3 ~$1000mil (1bil). You can meet anybody you want, politicians ask you for advice and for campaign contribs. Somewhere between Lvl2 and Lvl3 you become a "real" player.

oh gawd....  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

You seem to be suggesting that lower levels do not count and that peeps need to asprie to the higher levels that you describe..

Whatever.. you can do that if you want.. that's your choice (well that is if you can accumulate enough bitcoin and otherwise have timeline abilities to reasonably accomplish or aspire to those matters).  Seems like way smaller niche areas, and sure some guys might aspire to such.. but I personally believe it is much more interesting to talk about subjects of more broad appeal, including considering how newbies might be grappling with basic BTC accumulation techniques.. and even getting to basic fuck you status level might be something that they see that could be possible 30 years down the road, but they might want to try to employ smarter tactics to cut that timeline in half or even less if possible too..   there are plenty of people who are still contemplating how to get off of zero and just have something like a $25 per week accumulation status.. so maybe just getting to fuck you status remains quite a thing to attempt to achieve (and might even seem a stretch - rather than considering those higher levels that may or may not come after first getting to entry level fuck you status)..


EDIT: the funny thing is, if btc will ever reach the Hal Finney number ($10mil/btc) or PlanB (5mil/btc), then 20BTC bought, say, either in 2013 or 214-2015 for $4-5K (total) would be $100-200mil...that hat(funny typo!) person would be a player (if he/she would be able to hodl through). No wonder that the guy who sold the house for btc when btc was $900 now has btc secured in 4-6 locations (on all continents, lol).

Sure.. no problem.  

I don't necessarily have any problem with some people who may have employed techniques that just sit on their investment for many years and aspire for bitcoin to go up while NOT investing more.

The more active way of ongoingly investing in BTC seems to be a better approach (both historically and likely into the future), in my humble bumble opinion.

Let's say that you are describing a pretty damned realistic situation in which a guy accumulated up to 20 BTC by August 2015.  Personally, I believe that such guy could have accumulated way more BTC during that time if he had some meaningful level of conviction about BTC, but let's say that he had some reservations about investing too much into BTC, so he had ONLY accumulated 20 BTC because he was a wee bit of a scaredy cat in regards to investing too much into BTC.. so he considers $5k invested ($250 per BTC) to be enough... and he will just sit on his 20 BTC and frequently whine that he did not buy more BTC or that the BTC price is not getting to $10 million fast enough...

Let's compare that whiny curmudgeon guy (not anyone I specifically know... with a name Biodom hahahahaha) to the guy who bought 20 BTC by August 2015, and so maybe the non-whiner guy had been lacking some conviction about BTC prior to August 2015, but by August 2015, that guy decides to develop a more activist and ongoing strategy in regards to his BTC accumulation that has a chance of accelerating his getting to fuck you status and not just relying upon a "hail Mary" approach that only relies upon the 20 BTC sufficiently appreciating in value, and the non whiny BTC activist guy considers that it is really not any kind of skin off of his back to continue to invest into BTC with an additional $100 per week to add to his end of 2015 stash of 20 BTC... and just to see where the whole BTC investment goes with such an ongoing relatively small adding to his stash.

The non-whiner ongoing BTC activist investor guy is going to be way the fuck ahead of the reserved curmudgeon guy, even though he would have had to put quite a bit more fiat into BTC over the subsequent 6 years, until present.

So the BTC activist investor guy is not waiting for any kind of "hail Mary" "what ifs" but instead is taking the bull by the horns in terms of his ongoing conviction about BTC in terms of regularly attempting to building his BTC stashed amount.. so he does not have to whine about hoping to get rich faster because even though he had always had some reservations about bitcoin, he had some appreciation  that the BTC price would have good chances of continuing to go up, so considered that regularly and ongoing investment in BTC would likely be a good thing, even if it was a mediocre amount.  

So with $100 per week, his total additional investment into BTC would have been $31,400, and he would have accumulated nearly another 22 BTC, so his total BTC stash would have reached 42 BTC for a total investment of $36,400 (about $867 per BTC).

I am not even proclaiming that 42 BTC gets the BTC activist investor guy to entry-level fuck you status because even though the spot price of 42 BTC as I type this post (price at $45,400) would be about $1.9 million, I do not believe that given BTC's ongoing and likely inevitable volatility, it is prudent to value BTC wealth in terms of spot price.  And I personally believe that currently 42 BTC only brings such guy about half way to entry-level fuck you status (only going by his BTC stash and not other wealth that he may well have).

However, based on some of the presumptions of my earlier post/chart it seems pretty likely that in another 4 years, such activist BTC investor guy will be unambiguously in entry-level fuck you status based on his currently accumulated BTC stash, and sure it would be discretionary whether he would want to continue to regularly put money into BTC until he clearly has reached such status or merely to let his BTC investment ride - and surely it is possible that the approximate 52x price appreciation of his BTC investment ($45,400/$867) his caused a considerable amount of skewing of his overall investment portfolio to have become quite lopsided on the BTC side of the ledger.. which is also discretionary regarding if he would like to just let that skewedness ride (let the winner ride) or to reallocate before reaching entry-level fuck you status.  

Of course, there are some other possible ways to manage the value of a BTC investment, and surely, even though I am personally hostile towards any need to diversify within crypto into non-btc coins, I am not necessarily hostile towards diversifying in other investments, even if historically we have seen all other assets perform less well than bitcoin over the longer time frames.  I personally feel that I have been somewhat spoiled in my own already existing diversification that existed prior to getting into bitcoin - so even though my BTC value has disproportionately appreciated compared to my various traditional investments, I have not found any kind of compelling motivation to diversify out of BTC kin order to attempt to gain more security in terms of some of my traditional assets serving some kind of role to off set some of the ongoing and inevitable BTC volatility.

None of these are easy choices, and surely they are somewhat personalized, so surely diversifying out of some BTC along the way, might cause some greater comfort in terms of some ongoing volatility concerns, but also may well cause it to take longer to get to entry-level fuck you status (and of course, all assets/investments besides just BTC should be considered anyhow when trying to figure out whether or not entry-level fuck you status has been reached)..
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August 13, 2021, 06:39:10 AM

Just found the best indicator on TradingView.  Grin
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August 13, 2021, 06:40:39 AM
Merited by vapourminer (2), El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1)

Binance is down for maintenance and the trade on all other exchanges is on hold. This is ridiculous. Clearly the insane bot trading in Binance is what triggers the trading bots on other exchanges. What would have been without Binance? Considering that their bots eat like pirahnas any fraction of a percent profit to the point when it often turns to triggering stop losses, the price should have been much higher. It is good that at the news of closing some accounts, many left reducing the reserve with 50K bitcoins. I miss the old good days of 2017, when BFX was leading the market with volume based mostly on the bid/ask books. Now these books are completely irrelevant, thanks to the high frequency trading in Binance. Yesterday there were only red hourly candles and at the minute binance was off, a recovery followed. It is so obvious now that the repetitive pattern in the recent months of 12+ hours consecutive red candles were not caused by any other exchange/otc desk, but by these poorly programmed bots. According to glassnode data, $50 bil were realized losses on all exchanges for 2 months, of which at least 1/4 are on behalf of the Binance traders. Now I see that binance is back on, unfortunately. The price is going up for now, which is good, but it may be because the bots will be started a bit later. Let's hope the fate of Binance will be different than MtGox, but the latest Defi hack is a red flag for anyone keeping funds on that exchange.
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