Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

First shot at blasting past $50K was a head fake.  Let's get one more head fake in there to let the bears feel empowered before shooting to a new ATH.  I'm guessing within 45 days we'll be seeing a >$60K Bitcoin as it shoots past the former ATH headed straight for $135K by December...  At this point, I would honestly be surprised if this isn't what we see happen, as everything is falling into place perfectly the way it seems to magically do every 4 years for the market to see a massive bubble with a blow off top.  Makes you wonder if we're really witnessing math or manipulation.

both? manipulation via math (sticking to S2F or any other trendline)?  
Both the numbers and time lines are possible.

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[JayJuanGee]

First shot at blasting past $50K was a head fake.  Let's get one more head fake in there to let the bears feel empowered before shooting to a new ATH.  I'm guessing within 45 days we'll be seeing a >$60K Bitcoin as it shoots past the former ATH headed straight for $135K by December...  At this point, I would honestly be surprised if this isn't what we see happen, as everything is falling into place perfectly the way it seems to magically do every 4 years for the market to see a massive bubble with a blow off top.  Makes you wonder if we're really witnessing math or manipulation.

both? manipulation via math (sticking to S2F or any other trendline)?  
Both the numbers and time lines are possible.

Huh?  Am I really seeing what I am seeing?



Biodom proclaiming that "stock to flow" is an actual factor in bitcoinlandia?






OMG!!!!!




OMG!!!!

[Hueristic]

If the band members live into their 40's it seems the drummer always kicks the bucket first.

[Hueristic]

Huh?  Am I really seeing what I am seeing?



Biodom proclaiming that "stock to flow" is an actual factor in bitcoinlandia?

Yeah but seriously ETH is a total scam shitcoin from day one and everyone knows its only existence is for professional theifs to bamboozle morons yet it reached a critical mass off greedy fucks thereby creating a perpetual self fulfilling machine. So anything that wasn't something can become something if enough people act as though it is, Perception can be stronger than reality on a broad scale. Not that I don't want S2F to be accurate just pointing out the obvious.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

I jinxed the bull market when I predicted 70k by may.

back in april..

It was you responsible for this whole BTC dippening matter.    

Damned Philip..

Can you just stop jinxing the BTC price performance from now on?  

We would prefer that things (including BTC price UPpening) can go better for us HODLers?

 

...

I AGREE.

April to Now has been fine for miners, but it has to have been hard on buy and stack investors.

I did nicely mining and have some stacked so that a blast to 100k+ means I will sell pieces at:

 55k
 60k
 65k
 70k
 75k
 80k
 85k
 95k
100k
and more if we go there.


The shed is in place. I  Paid it off.
We may rent 1 room behind a barber shop.
Do some builds there and a bit of mining.
Got more stuff on the plate than I can eat.
So let the buy and hodl guys have fun from now till mid spring.

So a nice rocket to 100k and beyond would be cool.

You are NOT going to find me proclaiming that "mining is the way to go," but it really does seem that the whole hash/difficulty drop in the past several months have been super great for those miners who were already set up with relatively decently efficient operations (and you seem to have been one of them), so you ended up getting decently great wind-falls from the so much shenanigans in the space - and even the BTC price run up that came before the dropping hash/difficulty issues was likely another bonus (even though not specifically to miners in that case).

Our recent recovery of hashpower/difficulty over the past 3-4 difficulty periods should have brought a pretty decent amount of confidence back to concerns that China might have been putting themselves in a place to attack the bitcoin network, but instead Bitcoin's hashpower is likely showing that they were higher levels of incompetent dweebs than the theories about possible attack on bitcoin would have shown them to be..

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

Latest Block:   697403  (17 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   113.8478%  (1884 / 1654.84 expected, 229.16 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   14496442856349.12                           
Current Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 17712110966646 and 17722686783693
Next Difficulty Change:   between +13.8596% and +13.9276%
Previous Retarget:   August 13, 2021 at 12:42 AM  (+7.3097%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:50 AM  (in 0d 19h 19m 26s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 8:00 AM  (in 0d 19h 29m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 7h 7m 51s and 12d 7h 18m 22s

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Can table some of those ideas about possible attacks (China or whatever), at this point, and just appreciate that the hashrate/difficulty has been going back UP.  Lovely... lovely.

Mining sucks in general.

If I simply purchased DCA in 2012 and held I would be a millionaire.

Although If I did dca from August 2012 to Sept 2013 I am pretty sure I would have cashed out too quickly in Oct 2013.

I have been a tinkerer more than anything else. I saw mining as a way to get good gear as a discount. I never imagined the beauty of BTC until fall of 2017.

So from 2012 to 2017 was a learning curve.  I came to believe in BTC during this time.
2018  to fall of 2020 was a mining version of buy and hodl.
Spring of 2021 to now has been cool I will finally do okay and maybe in 3-4 years time become a BTC millionaire.

But fuck look at one of my old addresses

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1JdC6Xg3ajT3rge3FgPNSYYFpmf53Vbtje

I handled a lot of coin from 2012 to 2017
I just had no idea what BTC would grow to.
I gave away 10btc from 2014 to 2016 during the diff contests.

Then all of a sudden holy fuck this is a real thing.

Ah no use crying over spilt milk.  
At least I do some hodl and stack now.

[explorer]

If in 10 years time, bitcoin is $10m each, then the cash reserves of MSTR stored as bitcoin would probably form a majority of their market cap. At that price and if they don't get any more bitcoin, that puts the company hodling 1 trillion dollars worth of bitcoin.

There are several other companies that exceed this marketcap today. If those companies attempt to buy bitcoin, they can easily surpass MSTR.

Apple is 2 trillion. Microsoft is also 2 trillion. Google is 1.8 trillion. Amazon is 1.6 trillion. Facebook is 1 trillion. MSTR is about 6.8 billion, with almost two thousand other publicly traded companies larger than it by market cap. They were half that last year; I mean MSTR was 3 billion last year, this year they are 6.8 billion.

Facebook is going to launch it's own shitcoin, but it can, and probably will, also hold bitcoin in its balance sheet.

The question is, will MSTR maintain the lead and be number one with 100k bitcoins? Will other companies try to follow? There can be only 200 other companies that can possibly do this and stack 100k each.

This might be the most bullish thinking for me, if 2000 companies only buy 10k each, that would be the same result, more or less.

The total market cap of the top 5000 companies approaches 93 trillion dollars. They're not all going to buy bitcoin. But if half of that goes to bitcoin, we're looking at 2 million per whole coin. Markets don't work this way or linearly, so the actual effect could be much higher, which is why it's not too crazy today to think bitcoin can go up to 10 million to 50 million or even 100 million per coin.

We know the big banks (edit: I typed big bangs) are eventually going to buy some bitcoins, ... because they will be accepting them or offering custody services for them.

   Probably a good description of them in the coming months/years...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@philipma1957

FFS dude, are you sure you should be linking an address with so many transactions publicly?

Think about your OPSEC.

[Hueristic]

@philipma1957

FFS dude, are you sure you should be linking an address with so many transactions publicly?

Think about your OPSEC.

I'm sure all that has gone through a KYC exchange and bank.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Mining sucks in general.

If I simply purchased DCA in 2012 and held I would be a millionaire.

Although If I did dca from August 2012 to Sept 2013 I am pretty sure I would have cashed out too quickly in Oct 2013.

I have been a tinkerer more than anything else. I saw mining as a way to get good gear as a discount. I never imagined the beauty of BTC until fall of 2017.

So from 2012 to 2017 was a learning curve.  I came to believe in BTC during this time.
2018  to fall of 2020 was a mining version of buy and hodl.
Spring of 2021 to now has been cool I will finally do okay and maybe in 3-4 years time become a BTC millionaire.

But fuck look at one of my old addresses

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/............[edited out actual address based on ditto with LFC regarding OPsec concerns/practices.. even though of course, peeps make choices regarding various information pieces to disclose.. yet I may well NOT need to play too BIGGEDly of an enabling role.. .. even though I am not totally clear of the underlying trade offs, either]

I handled a lot of coin from 2012 to 2017
I just had no idea what BTC would grow to.
I gave away 10btc from 2014 to 2016 during the diff contests.

Then all of a sudden holy fuck this is a real thing.

Ah no use crying over spilt milk.  
At least I do some hodl and stack now.

Personally, I doubt that it would be a fair expectation or representation to suggest that any of us should have held onto all of the BTC that we had transacted over the years, because that would likely be either impractical or infeasible to have been able to hang onto all of the BTC transacted.

However, I do agree with your overall point that setting aside more BTC over the years probably would have been a good thing to attempt to prioritize  - but there still ends up being questions regarding how much would have been practical given your various ongoing expenses, risk tolerance and other individual factors...so sure in the end, we can likely presume that your amount of BTC retained would NOT have been even close to the whole 694 BTC, but sure we could imagine scenarios in which you may well have been able to retain a decently larger amount of BTC without ending up panic selling way too many of them too soon, even if you had retained way more of them.

So, of course, you are likely correct in identifying changes to your view of bitcoin as compared to other investments to have been one of your greatest changes in personal factors that have subsequently allowed you to conclude that it would likely be in your own personal interests to attempt to retain a larger portion of your BTC, as compared with your historical BTC retention practices.

I would suspect that there is NOT any longer term BTC HODLer who has not made some mistakes along the way, yet we should be able to appreciate that the best that we are able to do is to consider and perhaps tweak our current practices based on our learnings, and hopefully our tweaks actually contribute towards making matters better rather than either worse or just implementing some changed version of the same past mistakes.  

Of course, each of us should conclude differently regarding what kinds of tweaks would work for our own situation, and I will admit that sometimes I will hear about some tweaks that guys make, and then I think, "holy shit, that tweak does not really significantly or meaningfully change much of anything in terms what issues (problems) it had been intended to address."

Huh?  Am I really seeing what I am seeing?



Biodom proclaiming that "stock to flow" is an actual factor in bitcoinlandia?

Yeah but seriously ETH is a total scam shitcoin from day one and everyone knows its only existence is for professional theifs to bamboozle morons yet it reached a critical mass off greedy fucks thereby creating a perpetual self fulfilling machine. So anything that wasn't something can become something if enough people act as though it is, Perception can be stronger than reality on a broad scale. Not that I don't want S2F to be accurate just pointing out the obvious.

I am not even going to deny that perception of BTC price dynamics cannot end up contributing towards realities that end up playing out, and hopefully people do not put too many of their eggs in such baskets (such as baskets of perceptions blah blah blah) that are pretty damned inadequate and even lacking in explanatory value, even if you could well plug your perception of the world (including bitcoin) into such largely nonsensical and inadequate framenings.

In regards to my own perception of the various BTC price prediction models, including stock to flow, you likely realize that I take the various BTC price prediction models with a decently sized grain of salt, but I also tend to criticize some folks who are either completely ignoring the model or rolling some nonsense of their own model that may well fail/refuse to adequately account for the most credible and seemingly valid models that we have out there, which surely includes stock to flow, and stock to flow is coupled with 1) 4-year fractal (yes I know a wee bit redundant with S2F but likely deserving of such redundancy) and 2) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

[OutOfMemory]

@philipma1957

FFS dude, are you sure you should be linking an address with so many transactions publicly?

Think about your OPSEC.

I'm sure all that has gone through a KYC exchange and bank.

I guess he tried to point out that BTC adresses are resolvable and one could create a profile of pm1957's use of Bitcoin.
Tracking adresses to businesses or individuals would be the simplest thing within the scope of that topic.

EDIT: And as soon as you have a single transaction successfully mapped to the receiving individual, you could do things like call the receiver and "hi, this is agent herold bloblobrob from the fbi. You were receiving bitcoins a couple of years ago that were stolen. Can you look up/remember this transaction and possibly identify who sent it? For the love of your country..."

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

@philipma1957

FFS dude, are you sure you should be linking an address with so many transactions publicly?

Think about your OPSEC.

I'm sure all that has gone through a KYC exchange and bank.

I guess he tried to point out that BTC adresses are resolvable and one could create a profile of pm1957's use of Bitcoin.
Tracking adresses to businesses or individuals would be the simplest thing within the scope of that topic.

EDIT: And as soon as you have a single transaction successfully mapped to the receiving individual, you could do things like call the receiver and "hi, this is agent herold bloblobrob from the fbi. You were receiving bitcoins a couple of years ago that were stolen. Can you look up/remember this transaction and possibly identify who sent it? For the love of your country..."

Its all mapped and the only addresses your safe with are ones that have never sent a transaction and your the only one with the key.

I wouldn't be surprised if that was a coinbase assigned address.

[explorer]

@philipma1957

FFS dude, are you sure you should be linking an address with so many transactions publicly?

Think about your OPSEC.

I'm sure all that has gone through a KYC exchange and bank.

I guess he tried to point out that BTC adresses are resolvable and one could create a profile of pm1957's use of Bitcoin.
Tracking adresses to businesses or individuals would be the simplest thing within the scope of that topic.

EDIT: And as soon as you have a single transaction successfully mapped to the receiving individual, you could do things like call the receiver and "hi, this is agent herold bloblobrob from the fbi. You were receiving bitcoins a couple of years ago that were stolen. Can you look up/remember this transaction and possibly identify who sent it? For the love of your country..."

And, well, Think Of The Children!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[wxa7115]

This was probably true back then, but now? I don’t think so, there are too few people which understand what’s going on and even then they aren’t willing to take any action, forget about a revolution just the thought of doing anything is too much for them.

This reminds me of the Titanic, the ship that was practically unsinkable sank and many people didn’t believed this was possible until it actually happen, and in the minds of the majority the fiat system is thought to be the same, it’s simply too big too fail they think, but size has never been a good enough defense against catastrophic events, but by the time they realize this simple truth it’ll be too late to do anything, however I wonder what comes next? As it should be obvious to anyone the fiat system cannot last forever and at some point it needs to be replaced by something else.

[nutildah]

And, well, Think Of The Children!

And The Children's Children!

[Hueristic]

This was probably true back then, but now? I don’t think so, there are too few people which understand what’s going on and even then they aren’t willing to take any action, forget about a revolution just the thought of doing anything is too much for them.

This reminds me of the Titanic, the ship that was practically unsinkable sank and many people didn’t believed this was possible until it actually happen, and in the minds of the majority the fiat system is thought to be the same, it’s simply too big too fail they think, but size has never been a good enough defense against catastrophic events, but by the time they realize this simple truth it’ll be too late to do anything, however I wonder what comes next? As it should be obvious to anyone the fiat system cannot last forever and at some point it needs to be replaced by something else.

Unbelievable! I was thinking of writing a similar post but it would have gone into to much effort and detail than I was willing to spend to make a similar thread. Your timing could not have been better yet

[Hueristic]

And, well, Think Of The Children!

And The Children's Children!

We can move heaven and earth for the children when it pushes the agenda but ask them to pry open the coffers for the children of other people who really need it and its all excuses.

[Biodom]

S2F is ONE of the possibilities or a hypothesis (a pretty good one).
This cycle is a test of the hypothesis-and on balance it looks good so far.
It is not a religion, at least not for me.

However, for some one-dimensional creature(s), yea, go ahead, be a zealot.