Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[barbs]

My bids are at 295 because why not that's why

I need to recover from my Goxxing, which was pretty bad. 

[barbs]

what happened to teh 593 bid? was it pulled?

[chessnut]

what happened to teh 593 bid? was it pulled?

I think it was eaten alive

[Grafzep]

Thank you, aminorex, for not calling them the hoi polloi.

Nonsense, unless you want to be considered an elitist (which we could never accuse aminorex of).

From the Oxford Dictionary:

To those in the know, hoi is the Greek word for the definite article the (nominative masculine plural); the phrase hoi polloi thus translates as ‘the many’. This knowledge has led some traditionalists to insist that hoi polloi should not be used in English with the, since that would be to state the word the twice. Such arguments miss the point: once established in English, expressions such as hoi polloi are treated as a fixed unit and are subject to the rules and conventions of English. Evidence shows that use with the has now become an accepted part of standard English usage.

There is nothing elitist about not dumbing down. The OED has been subverted by populist young tykes.

[magicmexican]

Btw dat 1d Macd..



400$ soon?

[GaliX]

why is LTC so unliked after the hype?

[dreamspark]

With such tiny volume I don't think the market movements are that relevant right now except as the price approaches 'technical' areas (read technical traders selling off based on the chart).

All it takes is one big trade on stamp to drive prices back sharply upwards..or downwards!

This is true but that doesn't change the general market sentiment. This was seen in the run up from $550 to $700 where a few big trades (not even that big really) drove the price up but as soon as those fiat cannons paused we've slumped straight back down. Dont get me wrong we will be going to the moon at some point but it seems the market wants to give more people a chance to get on the train

What do you mean by general market sentiment? In my mind market sentiment is entirely driven by market movements. The general consensus on here seems to be that we are post december bubble and the price is stabilising prior to its next move. Now all it takes is for a whale to make several large buys and the chart can be painted, sentiment will improve, paging to the moon guy etc..

Until then we drift..

Yes it is driven by market movements but whale walls and buy can quickly change the short term market sentiment and panic buying ensues.

For example the general market sentiment can be that $600 is a fair price then one whale comes along  and lays down a big bid wall. Then people pull their asks thinking, lets see how high this goes and others pile their bids in front of it. He can then pull his wall and have moved the market without spending a penny. Whats changed here other than people panicking ? Nothing, so ensues a drift back down to where we were before.

The same is true in reverse. Id argue that the general sentiment here is that yes were building for another run up so the long term view is upwards, to the moon etc. But, many traders feel that this has a way to go down yet before that happens.

In regards to the volumes the only time we've seen large volumes in the last week or so have been on big downwards movements. That for me is further confirmation of still being in the triangle of doom from December.

[dreamspark]

Btw dat 1d Macd..



400$ soon?

Text book. The last 1 day cross took us from mid $800's to mid $500's.

[joburgtaxi]

Does anyone know of a BOT that will work with the Kraken exchange using API ?

[bangersdad]

there is low liquidity on kraken.

[surfer43]

buy or sell 

[joburgtaxi]

there is low liquidity on kraken.

I know but would still like a BOT, should I take your reply as "no there is not one" ?

[GaliX]

buy or sell 

if you ask your self buy or sell, it's most of the time buy.

If people sell you should buy to make profit.

[dreamspark]

buy or sell 

Neither right now, Id not like to be taking a position at this point , but depends what your in at the moment maybe a re adjust so your not effected whether the next movement is up or down and make a decision later in the day.

[joburgtaxi]

buy or sell 

if you ask your self buy or sell, it's most of the time buy.

If people sell you should buy to make profit.

Think you should have sold a while ago already

[JorgeStolfi]

Total trade ... was ~179 kBTC.  ...China's slice ... is 90%.

Given the isolated nature of the on-shore RMB market, I would be inclined to simply drop it from volume numbers.  If you could measure the fiat in-/out- flows, it would be informative, at least as a measure of sentiment in China, but what actual informative value does a costless swap between traders in a captive arena convey?  Call me unimaginative in this case, if you will, but I see none.

The markets are closed in RMB for common mortals, but some people may have channels, e.g. people who run import/export firms.

In any case, since bitcoins can move freely in and out, arbitrage between Chinese and non-Chinese exchanges is possible even if there is no USD/RMB exchange (I gave a simplistic example some time ago).  Which explains why the price is essentially the same in all exchanges in the world, with changes propagating almost instantaneously. Contrast that with the last days of MtGOX, when that market was really isolated, in BTC as well as in dollars.

While the raw percentage above may not mean much, volume in China appears to be correlated with volatility everywhere.  The lull during the Chinese New Year week is one evidence of that, and one can see on the Western exchanges the effect of the Chinese traders going to bed around 18:00 UTC.  Therefore, the fact that the percentage rose from 60% to 90% after MtGOX's collapse is quite significant IMHO.

Higher volume, for whatever cause, seems to make the price more stable on smaller time scales (cehck the 1-minute charts).  It may also mean more liquidity, and this presumably means more weight when dfining the price (like a rotweiler and a poodle on the same leash: the poodle may sometimes lead, but most of the time it will have to go where the other wants to go).

There may be a lot of off-exchange trade, but how do those traders fix the price, if not by the open market? The BIT fund, AFAIK, computes the nominal value of its shares daily from the BTC/USD price at various exchanges.

EDIT: typos

[Todorius]

buy or sell 

if you ask your self buy or sell, it's most of the time buy.

If people sell you should buy to make profit.

Think you should have sold a while ago already

I think one year from now it won't matter much if you bought at 400, 500 or 600. You'll probably be in the deep profit zone anyway  
Of course, if you're not hodling, it does matter.

[JorgeStolfi]

Hypothetically, if RMB drops faster than BTC [...] Actually RMB drops excruciatingly slowly

Indeed, it is headlines when USD/RMB drops from 6.14 to 6.22 in a month.  I just saw BTC drop from 620 to 590 in a few minutes...

[dreamspark]

Yes but currently bitcoin isn't propping up the world economy 

[joburgtaxi]

Quick question, how does one add an avatar, I am now a full member but am still getting a red message saying that I am not able to add an avatar.