Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

https://www.awesemo.com/sideaction/tom-brady-solution-bitcoin-byron-kennedy-600th-td-bjs/

During interviews on Monday, Byron Kennedy revealed that he would like to play a round of golf with Tom Brady, if possible. But the GOAT has another solution.

He took to social media to lobby with a crypto-currency company to give Kennedy one Bitcoin.

[Copetech]

Hey still looking for my 10k greenie

I don't want to be limited in predicting to the starting and ending times of a daily candle, but I would consider that a 24-hour period could produce a $10k candle relatively soon^tm.. maybe even within this here deadman's zone.. of let's say anywhere between $64.4k and $79.8k, we could have a $10k price appreciation within 24 hours within that price range.. seems very plausible to me... maybe having greater than 28% (which is NOT ant-sized) odds?....SOMA^tm.. and getting a less than 24 hour $10k candle before reaching $100k has closer to supra 38% odds...

You Go Mr. Ferdinand!

You going to take the over or the under?

 

 

All of my BTC if you win, all of yours if I win... and you got yourself a bet!

Edit: Timeline matters,, if in Oct, definitely under, if by end of year, Over... just to answer the question.

(Can't blame a guy for trying right?)

I have a repeated theme in which I grant some permissiveness to others.. including gamblers and other loser wannabes to risk higher portions of their stake.. so I could relate to some kind of gamble of something like 30% of your stake for crazy ass peeps.. and I have also frequently stated that for myself, even the craziest of bets would likely maximize out at something like 10% of my stake.. so that would have to be something that I am pretty passionate about or even for some reason considering that there's some important reason to gamble on such a proposition.  On the other hand, I suppose that if I felt that I was going to die soon, maybe I would take out some greater than 10% stakes in those kinds of scenarios, too... ...

Regarding your bet proposition, we would have to know sizes too.. so even talking in terms of percent makes little sense... If any of you remember one of my recent bet propositions to ImThour (in which he ignored me like any person making a disingenuine proposition), I had made some kind of 80/20 proposition.. and I cannot even remember the details, but since he was stating something in certain terms, I was being generous to allow him something like a 20% escape hatch.. and his proposition did not even come close to playing out, anyhow.. When we were at $42k-ish, he was propositioning that there was some kind of indicator that was taking us down to $36.5k, and  I suggested that I would take the other side of such bet that we would make it to $47.5k before getting to his number.. and what did I get ----- silence from him...

I was not talking about any timeline, so I am not sure if it matters, unless you are changing the bet, because my way of presenting left the timeline open and suggested the odds upon which we might be getting a $10k uppity daily candle between the prices of $64.5k to $79.5k or the odds for getting such $10k candle your timeline for the price before we reach $100k.. so not sure how timeline actually helps to perfect the bet in any kind of way because there was no timeline within the earlier description of the matter - beyond the assertion of "soon^tm"  .. so you seem to be proposing something different in terms of adding a time factor in there.

I might inclined to blame a guy for trying when he seems to be convoluting the terms of a potential bet.

Pulling your leg a bit there Jay and admittedly somewhat intentionally goading you into protest. (Go ahead, call me a Troll, I deserve it in this instance) But my bigger point which led me back to the thickening of the next post I made, was "in just about any wager you could name in the realm of reasonable probability, if the wager was my whole bag vs. your whole bag, I'd be hard pressed not to take the chance."

I've been buying weekly for 4-5 months leading up to this point where I estimate I likely have 10 times that many months to continue buying. It would almost be rediculous for me not to role the dice on this pittance for any reasonably possible pay-off of more coins than I could ever buy at my current rate.

But you're right it was unseemly for me to start shifting the terms around right off the bat.

So to start over: Whole Bag Vs. Whole Bag? I call under! Deal? 😜

[Copetech]

in the midst I have done a little dabbling (J1G would call it gambling) with various "shitcoins" to take advantage of short term gains to be invested into BTC.

Well in this case I think every single person in this thread would call that gambling. But hey, who cares what veteran coiners have to say? Im sure the next big thing will definitely be dog coin #312151.

Coping is all you will be able to do if you shitcoin too much.

Fair critique based on the minimal details I'm offering, but no I wouldn't touch a Dog Coin with Jay's money! In most cases my buys have been top 10 coins that were in a short term low point in comparison to BTC. I don't throw perfectly good money at meme scams, rug pulls, or newest token on the scenes. I have done well with a couple coins by timing the coinbase effect, but otherwise  it's all been established front runners. As I said, I've consistently accumulated approximately 30% more value than I would have by just outright buying BTC to begin with. I really don't consider there to be very much gamble in my researched short-term flips to BTC, but I definitely see a potential gamble in trying to call the top of this Bull Run and then buy back in lower.
And yes, I certainly look for the input of veteran coiners such as yourself. I've learned a lot on this board! Just saying with the numbers and the odds I'm looking at right now, this may just be my Newbie mistake to make.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

All joking aside, I have been giving considerable thought to how I am going to handle this bull run of my first cycle.
As many of you know, I didn't actually get onboard until late June of this year. I have since been consistently buying every week from my DCA amount. And in the midst I have done a little dabbling (J1G would call it gambling) with various "shitcoins" to take advantage of short term gains to be invested into BTC. I have consistently accumulated approximately 30% more BTC than the market price I invested, and at this point am at a bit over 100% profit. But, realistically, it's nothing. So I'm leaning heavily towards an attempt to DCA out to the top and then buy back after the crash with my profits. First sale at $98k would be the smallest and last sale at $249k the biggest leaving me with a little less than 10% of my current bag but nearly 100x in profits. If all works perfectly and we see 60% dip after a $250k top, I would be a whole coiner by my 1 yr BTC anniversary date. Even if it tops at any point below $249k but above $100k I would still be well on my way to whole coin status by end of year 2022. Only way I lose is A) it shoots up significantly higher than $300k and never drops back below $200k OR if it ends up in a super-cycle that never comes back. Either way, I'm still up significantly in Fiat, but will be back to ground zero in BTC accumulation. But considering I've only got 6 mos. of weekly DCA's invested, I just don't see the downside as being anywhere near the potential or even likely upside. Regardless of the outcome, I still continue my weekly DCA for the next 10 years, but if my bet pays off, I continue as a whole coiner. If it doesn't I just continue as a low coiner.

Open to thoughts and criticism, but can't honestly say I'll change my course based on it.

-Cope

If you believe BTC can drop by so much by some type of shock event, shitcoins will probably drop much harder.

Litecoin was promised to be the silver against BTC. It never recovered. The rest of the coins out there are promising to solve a problem that doesn't exist or literally were invented to make the "CEO" very wealthy or keep them busy with some type of fan BTC type of project to see if they could also do it. If you need smart contracts, they can be run with a few SATS on the BTC blockchain, via lightning if required. What else is out there that you need right now other than a store of wealth as a hedge against ridiculous inflation?

You could be holding a bag of shit that you cannot shift and you could be kicking yourself "if only I had kept BTC, even if I thought it wasn't that much at the time".

You can go back onto this very website and see people shifting 100s or even 1000s of BTC for a jar of coffee or a pizza in 2011!

If they continue to make more shitcoins I reckon we could end up with 15 million of them, as many as there are available BTC out there (not counting the lost ones).

Which one will THEN hold value? 1 shitcoin or 1 BTC.

I'd go with 1 BTC.

Gamble all you want. No-one will stop you.

Personally, if I hadn't gotten into the BTC world until this year I can fully appreciate being a whole coiner is pretty tough. But then I'd set my goal on 0,1BTC and then the next milestone 0,15. If I can then going forwards only ever get up to 0,2 then that would show that BTC will be growing by so much that 0,01BTC will be a huge amount. So that becomes the yearly target.
Etc...

[Copetech]

All joking aside, I have been giving considerable thought to how I am going to handle this bull run of my first cycle.
As many of you know, I didn't actually get onboard until late June of this year. I have since been consistently buying every week from my DCA amount. And in the midst I have done a little dabbling (J1G would call it gambling) with various "shitcoins" to take advantage of short term gains to be invested into BTC. I have consistently accumulated approximately 30% more BTC than the market price I invested, and at this point am at a bit over 100% profit. But, realistically, it's nothing. So I'm leaning heavily towards an attempt to DCA out to the top and then buy back after the crash with my profits. First sale at $98k would be the smallest and last sale at $249k the biggest leaving me with a little less than 10% of my current bag but nearly 100x in profits. If all works perfectly and we see 60% dip after a $250k top, I would be a whole coiner by my 1 yr BTC anniversary date. Even if it tops at any point below $249k but above $100k I would still be well on my way to whole coin status by end of year 2022. Only way I lose is A) it shoots up significantly higher than $300k and never drops back below $200k OR if it ends up in a super-cycle that never comes back. Either way, I'm still up significantly in Fiat, but will be back to ground zero in BTC accumulation. But considering I've only got 6 mos. of weekly DCA's invested, I just don't see the downside as being anywhere near the potential or even likely upside. Regardless of the outcome, I still continue my weekly DCA for the next 10 years, but if my bet pays off, I continue as a whole coiner. If it doesn't I just continue as a low coiner.

Open to thoughts and criticism, but can't honestly say I'll change my course based on it.

-Cope

If you believe BTC can drop by so much by some type of shock event, shitcoins will probably drop much harder.

Litecoin was promised to be the silver against BTC. It never recovered. The rest of the coins out there are promising to solve a problem that doesn't exist or literally were invented to make the "CEO" very wealthy or keep them busy with some type of fan BTC type of project to see if they could also do it. If you need smart contracts, they can be run with a few SATS on the BTC blockchain, via lightning if required. What else is out there that you need right now other than a store of wealth as a hedge against ridiculous inflation?

You could be holding a bag of shit that you cannot shift and you could be kicking yourself "if only I had kept BTC, even if I thought it wasn't that much at the time".

You can go back onto this very website and see people shifting 100s or even 1000s of BTC for a jar of coffee or a pizza in 2011!

If they continue to make more shitcoins I reckon we could end up with 15 million of them, as many as there are available BTC out there (not counting the lost ones).

Which one will THEN hold value? 1 shitcoin or 1 BTC.

I'd go with 1 BTC.

Gamble all you want. No-one will stop you.

Personally, if I hadn't gotten into the BTC world until this year I can fully appreciate being a whole coiner is pretty tough. But then I'd set my goal on 0,1BTC and then the next milestone 0,15. If I can then going forwards only ever get up to 0,2 then that would show that BTC will be growing by so much that 0,01BTC will be a huge amount. So that becomes the yearly target.
Etc...

All good points and I agree completely in that I would never Hodl any coin other than BTC, and I would CERTAINLY never trade BTC for another coin. But in several instances (OK honestly, quite a few instances) I have been able to catch a coin in a dip, ride it up and then dump the increased value as well as the initial principal into a larger number of Sats than my initial DCA could have bought. In many of those cases I could have made even more gains by holding a little longer, but I never sweat that as my goal has been achieved, I have more BTC than I would have had before. BTC accumulation is and always has been my primary focus.

Which is why I am struggling to find any compelling reason not to try to aggressively play out this bull run. Far more available to gain than possible to lose.

[aysg76]

Who sold at the bottom?

I did …. Some very little purchase… but I think it was the top-ish at that time 

I was also in need of funds urgently and was about to sell a little portion of my btc to sell them at $62k approximately but then one of my friends gave me the money to help me out of my problem and btc funds were restored to same position and now i have some extra funds as i gain profits from my other work which will be now put to btc investment.Hold long term.

Just to be little off topic congratulations to our one of the most active WO brother along with chartbuddy @El duderino_ for achieving big milestone of 7000 merits and becoming 5^th member to do so on forum so fast. I just posted your nice record here for everyone's reference. But now this record is not going to remain the same as you now will have 7002 merits  . Best wishes and keep the same pace man.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ElBinBit]

I don't want to be limited in predicting to the starting and ending times of a daily candle, but I would consider that a 24-hour period could produce a $10k candle relatively soon^tm.. maybe even within this here deadman's zone.. of let's say anywhere between $64.4k and $79.8k, we could have a $10k price appreciation within 24 hours within that price range.. seems very plausible to me... maybe having greater than 28% (which is NOT ant-sized) odds?....SOMA^tm.. and getting a less than 24-hour $10k UPpity candle before reaching $100k has closer to supra 38% odds...

Yes $100k is going to be very strong, but I don't think he's going there anytime soon! Too much of a wait....

In my opinion it would look like this:

Current ---> $80k --> $40-50k --> over $100k

[eddie13]

You guys want to see a $10k candle so bad?
I’d be careful what you wish for as I’d say the likelihood of seeing a red $10k candle before a green $10k candle is pretty high..

If you have been observing for any amount of time you should know that drops usually happen faster than gains..

Not saying we are going to go down, just that flash corrections are a thing..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

All joking aside, I have been giving considerable thought to how I am going to handle this bull run of my first cycle.
As many of you know, I didn't actually get onboard until late June of this year. I have since been consistently buying every week from my DCA amount. And in the midst I have done a little dabbling (J1G would call it gambling) with various "shitcoins" to take advantage of short term gains to be invested into BTC. I have consistently accumulated approximately 30% more BTC than the market price I invested, and at this point am at a bit over 100% profit. But, realistically, it's nothing. So I'm leaning heavily towards an attempt to DCA out to the top and then buy back after the crash with my profits. First sale at $98k would be the smallest and last sale at $249k the biggest leaving me with a little less than 10% of my current bag but nearly 100x in profits. If all works perfectly and we see 60% dip after a $250k top, I would be a whole coiner by my 1 yr BTC anniversary date. Even if it tops at any point below $249k but above $100k I would still be well on my way to whole coin status by end of year 2022. Only way I lose is A) it shoots up significantly higher than $300k and never drops back below $200k OR if it ends up in a super-cycle that never comes back. Either way, I'm still up significantly in Fiat, but will be back to ground zero in BTC accumulation. But considering I've only got 6 mos. of weekly DCA's invested, I just don't see the downside as being anywhere near the potential or even likely upside. Regardless of the outcome, I still continue my weekly DCA for the next 10 years, but if my bet pays off, I continue as a whole coiner. If it doesn't I just continue as a low coiner.

Open to thoughts and criticism, but can't honestly say I'll change my course based on it.

-Cope

That's my strategy too, my plan is to park my fiat money in solid stocks, like Ericsson, for the coming bear year. (the bottom seams to come a year after the blow of top).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[becoin]

Too many people have sold their bitcoins and are now hoping for a $5k-$10k drop to buy back. This is why we'll go to +$100k without any substantial correction!

[cygan]

THE BIRTH OF BLOCKCHAIN

https://www.satoshiverse.io/lore

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

No coiners and shitcoin holders feeling exactly the same now:



Is this correct proudhon ? Will bitcoin rise above $60k line graphs or not? 

[Sayeds56]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1452799948232269833