Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714677162]

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[1714677162]

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[1714677162]

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[OgNasty]

got me some dip

Looking like it’s taking a double dip now. I imagine quite a bit of leverage is getting wrung from the system as we speak. Hopefully we don’t see it dip too far into the 50s or things might start sending people into panic mode. I don’t think we’re there yet though. Less than 20% is barely even a correction in Bitcoinland. 

[JayJuanGee]

This, as a trader, I've really noticed this year with ETH that ...

It was worth it to dox.. dragonvslinux...

 

Market is looking for the time Congress would bolt out of there for a vacation (since they are 'ideating' about new ways to raise revenue for the build program), imho.
https://bgrdc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-Combined-Congressional-Calendar-BGR.pdf

Prediction: bearish to flattish Nov 16-19, bullish Nov 20-Nov 28, then flattish/bearish Nov 29-Dec 10, then a nice finish for the year: Dec 11-Dec 31 with a relatively mild year end profit taking since we appreciated about ~117 100% so far and not 1000%. In case or a large move, this could change, of course.

I appreciate your bold prediction, even though I do not agree with several parts of it.  I do agree that there could be a variety of ways to temporarily break away from PlanB's overly optimistic expectations and even scheduling that for sure $100k has to happen before the end of the year.  I don't believe that delaying bullruns even into early 2022 would negate some reasonable variation of PlanB's model..  I do still expect as I mentioned a few posts earlier in my response to STT that we have pretty decent odds, such as 47%-ish of reaching at least $100k this cycle and sure if I am sticking with 47%-ish odds for this cycle, then it would have to be a bit lower for this calendar year.. so either I have to change my estimates or maybe just adjust a few percentages down to 41.5%-ish for this calendar-year.. which still remains bullish, no?  i am doubting my own bullishness, temporarily.

I am a bit confused by your above numbers regarding ~117... I would suggest that this bull run started at about $4,200 in April 2019 and therefore so far we have gotten 16.43x out of this bullrun, and I do expect that there are decent odds that we would be somewhere between 16.43x and 78x (the approximate amount for the 2017 run) .. maybe in the ballpark of 50x.. but surely that is far from a given... but seems reasonable.

If you are suggesting that $32k-ish would be our jumping off point, well that seems ridiculous but that would be one way of calculating a 117% appreciation.. so presumably the bottom of the 56% dip -which hardly even seems to be a relevant measuring point, but I know with guys who want to spin their own price prediction models, then we can get all kinds of crazy-ass results that hardly make any sense in the whole scheme of things or even the appreciation/recognition of bitcoin as a somewhat formidable asset class (which is the reality of the matter that faces us with paradigm shifting king daddy).  You have created these kinds of stupid-ass frameworks in the past and tried to argue them as if they were somewhat relevant.  

We also get some kind of $32k-ish number if we start the calendar year as our measurement, and yeah I know that many traditional financial analysis want to plug assets into yearly performances and I have my doubts about whether that is a meaningful thing to do with bitcoin if that is how you arrived at those kinds of framenings.  

Anyway, I was very close to sending you an smerit for your seemingly creative framening of the issue, but as I had been thinking through where you seem to be going - including some of the places that you have gone before with spinning some of your own nonsense.. I am considering that I don't necessarily want to become too charitable in giving you benefits of the doubt when you have engage in some of this seemingly misleading nonsense in the past.. and maybe I should just say "fuck you" regarding your assertion that bitcoin has not yet done a 10x in this cycle.. I know another thing that troll/shill fucks like you like to do (Stolfi used to do it, too) is to measure BTC performance from the top of cycles to show how badly off we are (and you have done that before too), so if you were to measure this cycle from $19,666, then so far we have only gotten 3.5x-ish.. Of course, I believe that those measures that start from the top of cycles do not adequately capture the asset in terms of when we are at various points within the midst of a cycle - even though in the real long term (such as over several cycles) the measuring from tops does tend to iron itself out because the tops of earlier cycles do look pretty dwarfed if we look at subsequent cycles.. such as $1,163 (in 2013) and $32 (in 2011), and sure we could even look at $263 of March 2013 which retrospectively we should be assessing as an intermediate stage of the 2013 cycle that ended up topping in late 2013 (so retrospectively on a further zoomed out basis we see that the $263 was not really a true top of cycle).

Maybe you will be able to come out with a more innocent explanation (or response) than some of the misleading motives that I am starting to attribute to you after playing with your numbers a wee bit.. so I would like to be wrong about my attributions of the way you are seeming to frame bitcoin and its current performance and you have some kind of a better explanation.. though I know frequently when your seemingly misleading motives are pointed out you will either get emotional and engage in personal attacks, completely ignore my inquiries or just give some kind of a divergent all over the place response.  

Let's see?  Am I unfairly maligning you?  I am pretty sure that your history has already shown that you are not really the kind of guy that any of us more bitcoin bullish folks would want to be stuck in the trenches with because you seem to want to turn on king daddy bitcoin at any semblance of an opportunity (or weak point) that you identify.. which tends to put you on team opportunistic FUD spreading - even if that might not have been your original intent (sometimes difficult to identify actual genuineness or even lackenings of bad intent on interwebs).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Buy some dip it is tasty

[JayJuanGee]

got me some dip

My buy orders did not start triggering until mid $61ks, and sure a couple of them have been filled, so far.. but I am still kind of attempting to make up for a mistake that I had made a bit over two weeks ago (in the end of October) when I was setting a sell order at $116k-ish and I accidentally market sold at about $62.5k.... but I had not noticed the mistake until almost a week later..  so I had kind of set up about 6 buy orders to make up for that, so only a couple of the make-up buy orders were executed before the BTC price had resumed UPpity, but then when the price went up to $69k, I did have a couple more sell orders execute.. so I did have to jumble up matters in terms of resetting my buy orders to both account for the sales and then going back to trying to make up for the mistake to spread both the buys from the supra $60k sales and the make up buys into 7 buy orders.. and so yeah I am not feeling bad to be buying some of that BTC back.. even if I prefer to go up .. to be making up for my $62.5k-ish mistakes.. even though for sure I would have preferred up.. and I feel that I am merely making lemonade with these current lemons..

....so yeah.. maybe there could be some more BTC price drops.. if any momentum were to build up.. hard to know for sure.. hard to know..   Surely, it would not be bad for this dip to be over and to have been just a short term funzies.. because at some point we might be breaking our supra $60k streak.. which for sure is not even that BIG of a deal.... because we have also been floating in the top 10 of weighted BTC prices for like 9 days in a row (from Nov. 7th until today)...  

This whole dippening just seems to be delay of UPpity rather than anything else.., even though for sure some weak hands are going to be betting shaken from these kinds of disappointing BTC price movements (I know that guys like Arriemoller whine a lot, but I believe that someone like him has learned to not panic and just to whine.. but you never know.. mindrust was like that too.. he whined a whole hell of a lot, and then pretty soon he just went overboard and panicked.. if you can believe that "official story"..  Anyhow, sometimes the weak hands do just make it too easy to motivate the bearwhales..and of course, we know that they can really reck some of the margin longs, and likely several of us here have learned NOT to be playing around with margin.. but hey.. there are likely some of us who do get greedy in that direction (this here cat (or "peeps" as d_eddie has officially anointed me) does not ever employ margin and still has been able to get richie as fuck - relatively speaking - from mere persistency in betting long and attempting to be reasonable and erroring on the side of ongoing BTC accumulation/or just HODLing).

got me some dip

Looking like it’s taking a double dip now. I imagine quite a bit of leverage is getting wrung from the system as we speak. Hopefully we don’t see it dip too far into the 50s or things might start sending people into panic mode. I don’t think we’re there yet though. Less than 20% is barely even a correction in Bitcoinland.  

Fair point.. only about 14% of correction (dippening) so far as I type.. so that would be $60,350.. but surely we got ongoing DOWNity momentum as I type this post... so 20% would put the threshold at about $55,200.. and we have historically had some quickie 30% corrections (which would be $48,300) that really put weak hands into hyper-panic mode and surely selling at the bottom mode.. and not putting it past the whales to be able to accomplish.. even though we have already had some difficulties getting below $58k in our earlier corrections in October.. so there is that.. who knows?  who knows?  

Don't get me wrong for sure I prefer UPpity.. but I am willing to go where-ever this pig takes me (attributes to BJA).. .. while preferring UP if possible.

Buy some dip it is tasty

Don't be rejoicing any kind of DOWNity of king daddy (our saviour).. it is unbecoming of a gentleman.. oh wait..

By the way, it is also unbecoming of an actual HODLer who has a decent amount of stake in the game, but that is another topic.. let's just stick with the gentleman angle for now and be less critical of udder peeps (talking to lil selfie)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Next couple of weeks are make or break, I think. Certainly as far as the numbers being predicted by well known analysts go, it’s getting towards crunch time.

I’m not enjoying the struggle to get close to & breach $70,000. Today is the first time in a long time I am starting to doubt we will see a $100,000 bitcoin in 2021.

NFA.

Here’s my thoughts:

We are having trouble getting through the 60s because long-term holders (LTHs) have stopped accumulating coins at the high rate that we saw from the 30k through to the 60k level. They are possibly still buying these dips though as exchange reserves seem to still be decreasing.



LTHs not buying above the previous ATH makes sense as these people have traditionally taken profits as we go through the previous ATH. So what usually drives the price up from this point, while LTHs are selling, is the short-term holders (STHs).



I think the problem we are facing right now is that LTHs have started selling (or at least stopped accumulating) and the STHs have not showed up yet. Look at the run up end of last year in the previous chart. STHs come into the market taking coins from the LTHs (Oct 2020), this keeps happening until the STHs slow/stop buying. The peak this year in April shows that.



What seems to be different now from last run up at the end of last year is that when STHs came into the picture we were well below the ATH. This time we are at the ATH and no STHs of any note yet. So taking this under consideration, I reckon we have another month of sideways down, I’m basing this on the up channel displayed on the daily price chart, and think it may take this long before STHs start outpacing the LTHs.



Of course there is the possibilty that the 50% correction we had a few months ago has scared the shit of any potential STHs, and we may have to wait even longer till they feel comfortable investing again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Here’s my thoughts:

You are already known as a glass-half-full kind of a guy, at least by yours truly.. to what degree that matters at all.. so it seems that any opportunity to put a negative spin on the UPpity potential matters of king daddy when we might NOT exactly be going UPpity is not really out of character for you...

By the way, you do realize that we had 9 days in a row of BTC prices in the top 10 weighted averages, no?... but yeah.. of course, not enough buyers out there... so it seems.  

At least one positive note would be that you blocked a chartbuddy three-bagger...  

[somac.]

Here’s my thoughts:

You are already known as a glass-half-full kind of a guy, at least by yours truly.. to what degree that matters at all.. so it seems that any opportunity to put a negative spin on the UPpity potential matters of king daddy when we might NOT exactly be going UPpity is not really out of character for you...

By the way, you do realize that we had 9 days in a row of BTC prices in the top 10 weighted averages, no?... but yeah.. of course, not enough buyers out there... so it seems.  

At least one positive note would be that you blocked a chartbuddy three-bagger...  

Not negative, positive. Just for a slower movement up that's all. So no 98k this month, or possibly next. But early next year definitely. See channel chart, puts us around the 100k level in Feb.

You just have trouble understanding because you're metally retarded.

[El duderino_]

It is a part of the game…. But it’s the part I hate most … dips that aren’t worth to been bought…. Only being annoying

[OutOfMemory]

Well, this afternoon was a bit surreal.

Caught up with our estate planner to update our wills, and we have become "the bitcoin couple" at the firm working with us.

Last we checked in, our attorney had a rough idea of what my stash was worth, and it was impressive to him then - a few years ago - and after revealing the current value of our holdings, he was just absolutely dumbfounded. Could not believe that I held the stash we do (minus what I've peeled off for the ranch / retirement) and the wealth we've come into by sheer HODLING.

Began to recognize at that point we suddenly "ranked" at the firm as one of their top tier clients.

Their firms current, biggest whale is worth about $500M. Expecting him to reach billionaire status within a few years on one of his enterprises.

Fucking crazy world we live in.

Thanks Satoshi.

Thanks for putting up with all my shit, Rick!

Life's a one way ticket.
Enjoy the ride!  

EDIT: I remember you getting a little upset about Rick being a diva sometimes (or you being too much of an asshole).
Well, probably exclusive to mankind, and also most substantial of, as well as influential on our behavior and life experience, what drives both of you, ALL of us:

EMOTIONS


Value them. Value the good ones, value the bad ones. Accept all of them, in everyone. Each of them have their qualities and purposes.
Imagine a life without emotions! Like being dead but still breathing...  
And remember: Even if someone comes around as a fucking retarded asshole, he/she/it is acting this way just because he/she/it is struggling with life in some way, like all of us do/did and will always do so again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

It is a part of the game…. But it’s the part I hate most … dips that aren’t worth to been bought…. Only being annoying

I'm just baffled each time how "short time holders" are reducing their yields.
Filthy fiat whores.
But however, almost everybody is looking for a dip to get in, so here we are again  


EDIT:

In otter wordz:

BITCOIN IS CRASHING TO PRICE LEVELS NOT SEEN IN THE LAST 9 DAYS!!!



The bearz won, sorry. Pack it up, it's all over! Bitcoin is dead, Proudhon is dancing on Satoshi's grave.

[LoyceV]

BITCOIN IS CRASHING TO PRICE LEVELS NOT SEEN IN THE LAST 9 DAYS!!!

I know, we're spoiled, right?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NeuroticFish]

BITCOIN IS CRASHING TO PRICE LEVELS NOT SEEN IN THE LAST 9 DAYS!!!

You may be attracting a new wave of "Bitcoin will not be able to stay above..." topics with this  

[aysg76]

BITCOIN IS CRASHING TO PRICE LEVELS NOT SEEN IN THE LAST 9 DAYS!!!

If you hold btc just relax and enjoy or the best is to have the btc sandwich with dips that could feed you for entire life.Taking two steps back mean the jungle king is preparing for high jump...