Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

Why? Because it is completely arbitrary and does not accomplish what is intended.
Assume several scenarios:
1. A visitor from out of state was traveling, went to piss past a purple post. He/she has no idea, thinks that it is some kind of a decoration-bam, wham. Not exactly the same, but in Florida a nice Japanese student visitor was killed through the door when he was simply participating in Halloween celebration.
2. A local drunkard drove his truck past the "signs", went out to do #1 as well...bam..wham!

In both cases, those who do the shootin' would be dragged through the courts, charged with manslaughter, and even IF they prevail, it is DEFINITELY not worth it if lives were not REALLY in danger.
Protect the property? Well, bears and rabbits shit on your property daily with no recourse..well maybe they got shot too from time to time, which is fine.

Additionally, assume scenario #2 happened. If the guy/gal who was shot in this scenario was also local, you would NEVER be safe.
His or her relatives...they got 'them telescope rifles as well, don't ya think?

Again, shooting mere trespassers is not legal in any case. Urban legends, old wives tales and the fact that you would probably get away with it if you weren't completely stupid notwithstanding. It's merely supposed to be a no trespassing sign. Though I do agree that it's really not very good from the point of view of someone who has never heard of this totally non-obvious custom.

By the way, I do recall reading that there were other parts to the Japanese student (though I think that was Texas) that were not being reported (quelle surprise) which, while not making the event particularly better, do shine a different light on things.

If I'm not wrong Texas has a law that let's you kill anyone entering your property uninvited after dark.
If I recall correctly the couple that shot the Japanese student did shout "freeze" several times and he did not stop, and it was after dark.

Don't know that story. It sounds tragic. 

However, if you travel, be aware of the "habits" in different areas.
And in some parts of the USA, you just don't enter people's property uninvited, no exception.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Why? Because it is completely arbitrary and does not accomplish what is intended.
Assume several scenarios:
1. A visitor from out of state was traveling, went to piss past a purple post. He/she has no idea, thinks that it is some kind of a decoration-bam, wham. Not exactly the same, but in Florida a nice Japanese student visitor was killed through the door when he was simply participating in Halloween celebration.
2. A local drunkard drove his truck past the "signs", went out to do #1 as well...bam..wham!

In both cases, those who do the shootin' would be dragged through the courts, charged with manslaughter, and even IF they prevail, it is DEFINITELY not worth it if lives were not REALLY in danger.
Protect the property? Well, bears and rabbits shit on your property daily with no recourse..well maybe they got shot too from time to time, which is fine.

Additionally, assume scenario #2 happened. If the guy/gal who was shot in this scenario was also local, you would NEVER be safe.
His or her relatives...they got 'them telescope rifles as well, don't ya think?

Again, shooting mere trespassers is not legal in any case. Urban legends, old wives tales and the fact that you would probably get away with it if you weren't completely stupid notwithstanding. It's merely supposed to be a no trespassing sign. Though I do agree that it's really not very good from the point of view of someone who has never heard of this totally non-obvious custom.

By the way, I do recall reading that there were other parts to the Japanese student (though I think that was Texas) that were not being reported (quelle surprise) which, while not making the event particularly better, do shine a different light on things.

If I'm not wrong Texas has a law that let's you kill anyone entering your property uninvited after dark.
If I recall correctly the couple that shot the Japanese student did shout "freeze" several times and he did not stop, and it was after dark.

Edit: i see now that it didn't take place in Texas so that law obviously wasn't applicable.

You are generally correct, however.  Texas does have this law.

And it is a tremendously civilized position in my opinion.  When you live in the country and come under a threat you MUST be able to defend yourself.  No one wants to be in that position.  And no one with any sense wants to carry the fact that they did ultimate hard to another human, even if justified.  But no one is going to be able to come to your aid if you are threatened miles away from any eve rough civilization, so you carry that responsibility yourself.

I have known a lot of country folks.  And they are, for the most part peaceful and kind.  They would help a stranger who came for help. But if you live out in the middle of nowhere and have someone come on your property uninvited (particularly at night), and then they do not respond to commands to halt...  Well there comes a point where the only sensible move is force.  It's known as Castle Law, or Doctrine.  And it is quite sensible in my opinion.

[Arriemoller]

Why? Because it is completely arbitrary and does not accomplish what is intended.
Assume several scenarios:
1. A visitor from out of state was traveling, went to piss past a purple post. He/she has no idea, thinks that it is some kind of a decoration-bam, wham. Not exactly the same, but in Florida a nice Japanese student visitor was killed through the door when he was simply participating in Halloween celebration.
2. A local drunkard drove his truck past the "signs", went out to do #1 as well...bam..wham!

In both cases, those who do the shootin' would be dragged through the courts, charged with manslaughter, and even IF they prevail, it is DEFINITELY not worth it if lives were not REALLY in danger.
Protect the property? Well, bears and rabbits shit on your property daily with no recourse..well maybe they got shot too from time to time, which is fine.

Additionally, assume scenario #2 happened. If the guy/gal who was shot in this scenario was also local, you would NEVER be safe.
His or her relatives...they got 'them telescope rifles as well, don't ya think?

Again, shooting mere trespassers is not legal in any case. Urban legends, old wives tales and the fact that you would probably get away with it if you weren't completely stupid notwithstanding. It's merely supposed to be a no trespassing sign. Though I do agree that it's really not very good from the point of view of someone who has never heard of this totally non-obvious custom.

By the way, I do recall reading that there were other parts to the Japanese student (though I think that was Texas) that were not being reported (quelle surprise) which, while not making the event particularly better, do shine a different light on things.

If I'm not wrong Texas has a law that let's you kill anyone entering your property uninvited after dark.
If I recall correctly the couple that shot the Japanese student did shout "freeze" several times and he did not stop, and it was after dark.

Edit: i see now that it didn't take place in Texas so that law obviously wasn't applicable.

You are generally correct, however.  Texas does have this law.

And it is a tremendously civilized position in my opinion.  When you live in the country and come under a threat you MUST be able to defend yourself.  No one wants to be in that position.  And no one with any sense wants to carry the fact that they did ultimate hard to another human, even if justified.  But no one is going to be able to come to your aid if you are threatened miles away from any eve rough civilization, so you carry that responsibility yourself.

I have known a lot of country folks.  And they are, for the most part peaceful and kind.  They would help a stranger who came for help. But if you live out in the middle of nowhere and have someone come on your property uninvited (particularly at night), and then they do not respond to commands to halt...  Well there comes a point where the only sensible move is force.  It's known as Castle Law, or Doctrine.  And it is quite sensible in my opinion.

I agree with you, I only wish we had that law in Sweden.

[serveria.com]

Why? Because it is completely arbitrary and does not accomplish what is intended.
Assume several scenarios:
1. A visitor from out of state was traveling, went to piss past a purple post. He/she has no idea, thinks that it is some kind of a decoration-bam, wham. Not exactly the same, but in Florida a nice Japanese student visitor was killed through the door when he was simply participating in Halloween celebration.
2. A local drunkard drove his truck past the "signs", went out to do #1 as well...bam..wham!

In both cases, those who do the shootin' would be dragged through the courts, charged with manslaughter, and even IF they prevail, it is DEFINITELY not worth it if lives were not REALLY in danger.
Protect the property? Well, bears and rabbits shit on your property daily with no recourse..well maybe they got shot too from time to time, which is fine.

Additionally, assume scenario #2 happened. If the guy/gal who was shot in this scenario was also local, you would NEVER be safe.
His or her relatives...they got 'them telescope rifles as well, don't ya think?

Again, shooting mere trespassers is not legal in any case. Urban legends, old wives tales and the fact that you would probably get away with it if you weren't completely stupid notwithstanding. It's merely supposed to be a no trespassing sign. Though I do agree that it's really not very good from the point of view of someone who has never heard of this totally non-obvious custom.

By the way, I do recall reading that there were other parts to the Japanese student (though I think that was Texas) that were not being reported (quelle surprise) which, while not making the event particularly better, do shine a different light on things.

If I'm not wrong Texas has a law that let's you kill anyone entering your property uninvited after dark.
If I recall correctly the couple that shot the Japanese student did shout "freeze" several times and he did not stop, and it was after dark.

Edit: i see now that it didn't take place in Texas so that law obviously wasn't applicable.

You are generally correct, however.  Texas does have this law.

And it is a tremendously civilized position in my opinion.  When you live in the country and come under a threat you MUST be able to defend yourself.  No one wants to be in that position.  And no one with any sense wants to carry the fact that they did ultimate hard to another human, even if justified.  But no one is going to be able to come to your aid if you are threatened miles away from any eve rough civilization, so you carry that responsibility yourself.

I have known a lot of country folks.  And they are, for the most part peaceful and kind.  They would help a stranger who came for help. But if you live out in the middle of nowhere and have someone come on your property uninvited (particularly at night), and then they do not respond to commands to halt...  Well there comes a point where the only sensible move is force.  It's known as Castle Law, or Doctrine.  And it is quite sensible in my opinion.

I agree with you, I only wish we had that law in Sweden.

What for? I've been to Sweden it looks literally the most peaceful country in the world. And trust me: you don't want to shoot at people. I served as a police officer for 4 years in 2003-2007. 

[Biodom]

Texas has a lot of laws on guns, but the population is smart enough not to press the issue to the hilt.
Almost nobody in Houston is going around openly carrying a gun, but they could if a need arises.

"Beginning September 1, 2021, HB1927 made it legal in Texas for most people 21 or over to carry a handgun in a holster without a permit both openly and/or concealed."
However, there are many exceptions of places and events.
Exactly how this law interacts with the prior law that prohibited open carry on College campuses, I am not sure.
Typically, there are a lot of gun-related texts posted on the walls (on campuses), not sure if everything is even current.

Now, as far as bitcoin is concerned, nothing special is happening, so far.

[Richy_T]

If I'm not wrong Texas has a law that let's you kill anyone entering your property uninvited after dark.
If I recall correctly the couple that shot the Japanese student did shout "freeze" several times and he did not stop, and it was after dark.

I believe this effectively applies to your residence. You can't just gun down the mormons walking up your drive, even if one is Mitt Romney.

[Richy_T]

Probably more like

She's scary, I mean really.

The video is on YouTube and at a regular speed, it's quite a bit better. Embedded YouTube links weren't a big thing in 2009 when this forum software was written, apparently.

[Biodom]

I heard you guys love McDonald

Probably more like

is this a Mickey D's witch or Taylor Swift?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

I heard you guys love McDonald

Probably more like

She's scary, I mean really.

And that Doll isn't !?!?!?!?

[Syke]

Moreover, considering that in those 11 years that you have been here, you have not deigned to put an avatar, then such a trifle should not worry you much.

As Jefferson said ... “On matters of style, swim with the current, on matters of principle, stand like a rock.”  

I do like the current software, although a dark mode would be nice. It's more of a joke related to this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50617.0

[JimboToronto]

If I recall correctly the couple that shot the Japanese student did shout "freeze" several times and he did not stop, and it was after dark.

I remember reading at the time that "freeze" refers to ice cream in japan and that the victim probably thought he was being offered a Halloween treat. It was October 31 and there were Halloween decorations in place. Trick-or-treating is usually done after dark.

There's no mention of this in the Wikipedia article. Unfortunately Wikipedia has become polluted with right/left political bullshit to the point where it's almost useless for anything with even the slightest political overtones. Gun ownership debate definitely has political overtones.

[Gachapin]

If I recall correctly the couple that shot the Japanese student did shout "freeze" several times and he did not stop, and it was after dark.

I remember reading at the time that "freeze" refers to ice cream in japan and that the victim probably thought he was being offered a Halloween treat. It was October 31 and there were Halloween decorations in place. Trick-or-treating is usually done after dark.

There's no mention of this in the Wikipedia article. Unfortunately Wikipedia has become polluted with right/left political bullshit to the point where it's almost useless for anything with even the slightest political overtones. Gun ownership debate definitely has political overtones.

Actually Japanese call ice cream "aisu" or "aisukuriimu" (It originally comes from English language)

I'm quite sure he didn't know what they really meant with "freeze". Japanese are usually brought up to be very polite and respect other peoples wishes, especially when they are a guest in another country. So if he understood, he would have probably followed the order.

Maybe he thought freeze is some kind of joke, or part of the 'Halloween game'. Tragic image.


And I totally share your view on Wiki. Anything politic or historic is biased.
If you want to check some mathematics or physics, it's ok though.

[OgNasty]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.  This is usually the opposite of what I'm used to seeing.  I'd remain cautious here.  Price models are starting to break and the focus is turning to things like NFTs and coin burns while DeFi is still going strong even after the latest crash.  There isn't a whole lot of reason to be bullish on Bitcoin here in my opinion, but we haven't seen the multiyear blow off top that we typically see, so that remains the hope for a target.  I think it would be wise to have an exit plan ready if the right opportunity presents itself and starting to familiarize yourself with ways to earn a return from your crypto other than by 'price go up' might be a good idea.

[Gachapin]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.  This is usually the opposite of what I'm used to seeing.  I'd remain cautious here.  Price models are starting to break and the focus is turning to things like NFTs and coin burns while DeFi is still going strong even after the latest crash.  There isn't a whole lot of reason to be bullish on Bitcoin here in my opinion, but we haven't seen the multiyear blow off top that we typically see, so that remains the hope for a target.  I think it would be wise to have an exit plan ready if the right opportunity presents itself and starting to familiarize yourself with ways to earn a return from your crypto other than by 'price go up' might be a good idea.

Would you mind explaining some of the many "signs of long term weakness" that you see in the market, apart from DEFI and NFTs?

I mean BTC tends to brake most price models eventually.
Regarding stock to flow: it is still valid. Only PlanB's price floor model broke recently. (If you mean his models)

[dragonvslinux]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Today on Coinbase there was the highest 4hr bullish volume candle since October 20th for example.

Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term, given how resistance levels have been consistently sold:



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

[philipma1957]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

If we have already seen the end of the cycle, it was def. quite a weak one. The Corona panic would be a good explanation.

But what I'm pretty sure about is that there is a lot of fresh brrrrrr-fiat looking for assets to float into.

And what Saylor reminded me of is that if only a few big players (e.g. Apple, Microsoft, or else) started buying, you could throw most models in the bin, anyways.   Hopium... yes. But more realistic than ever before.