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Question: Highest price we'll see in 2022:
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100,000 - 0 (0%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25526736 times)
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tron4141
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November 28, 2021, 02:12:13 PM


Let's come back to this in a few month's time.
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November 28, 2021, 02:22:18 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1)

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November 28, 2021, 02:37:33 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Fear & Greed Index has reached 21 "Extreme Fear" today. Time to start feeling bullish again  Smiley



When was the last times Fear & Greed reached these extreme levels? Have a look at the green arrows representing extreme fear:



For over a month I've been feeling neutral, even slightly bearish short-term on price since $65K. Now the correction has reached my target, I've shed my short-term bearish bias.

Now that price has found support at the 0.618 on the shorter-term time-frames, I've gone for a high leveraged (10x) long position with tight stop loss  Grin

DYOR

Of course, many of us assert that normies should NOT be screwing around with leverage, and I imagine any kind of leverage like that does need a decently sized stop loss.  

Couldn't agree more! Especially not 10x leverage, unless you are an experienced day trader looking at the 10/15/30 minutes chart, or 1hr at best.
3/4x leverage would be a lot more sensible when trading the 4hr or Daily, but personally was a eyeing up the short-term risk/reward, rather than medium-term.

I don't believe in stop losses also, but I can appreciate if anyone is playing with decently high levels of leverage then the stop loss will be a godsend.

Yeh neither do I, unless leverage trading, then it's a must. I don't mind losing 10% in trade, but I do mind losing 100%, even if only 0.3% of total holdings.

By the way you likely realize that we have not seen anyone wicks in recent times, and for sure there is an ongoing practice and dynamic for bearwhales to trigger stop losses prior to moving up.. and of course, a wick is not a prerequisite, but wicks do happen quite frequently to screw up the potentially prematurely order placements of leveraged guys.

Honestly, I had overlooked that so I appreciate your insight. Alas my trade didn't last long, I tightened up the stop loss to break-even when $55K was rejected, given price had moved 1% (+10% profit) above my entry ($54.6K) and my stop loss was previously 0.75% below (7.5% loss). As I said, this was only a short-term time-frame trade, the target for me was around previous resistance of $57.5K and $61K, nothing special manoeuvre. The reason being was knowing that if $55K was rejected, followed by price finding support again at $54K, then this merely confirms a bear flag pattern targeting $50K, and thus the risk/reward for a short-term high leverage long-term has passed imo. No doubt there will be another opportunity, whether at higher prices or lower prices, but price is irrelevant to the risk-reward ratio when trading.



Now price is around the same level, but instead despite finding support from a newly found accumulation zone around $54K, $54.5K has become short-term resistance, as opposed to having breathing room to the upside as was previously the case, while the short-term target would be a measly $55.5K, based on remaining within a bear flag structure. Obviously none of this is relevant to longer-term time-frames, only a short-term speculative trade, it's barely even relevant to mid-term time-frames. But the volume gap between $53K to $50K looks quite releant, especially given a bear flag targeting through it:



Ideally, this is where a bear trap wick can be seen, down to $49K-$50K strong volume support, and likely back upto $53K within a 4hr period. Am now remaining neutral again short-term until the bear flag is invalidated (price breaking above last weeks low of $55.6k), or otherwise $50K is re-tested. This would place the Fear & Greed Index further into the bulls favour, as well as shorts being over-leveraged I imagine.
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November 28, 2021, 03:01:33 PM


Explanation
hisslyness
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November 28, 2021, 03:45:59 PM

Something is up


Quote
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s




-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

BTW this pattern does not match 2017-2018  so maybe things are different.

If it means we meander about in 2022  much like 2021 it works for me.

Of course we are just starting and it could be freak luck.

Still too early to tell!.. check again in a few days...
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November 28, 2021, 04:01:25 PM


Explanation
BitcoinBunny
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November 28, 2021, 04:08:11 PM

Several (non headline) articles I've read suggest that this Omicron carry on most likely has less severe symptoms.

Perhaps when the panic of politicians and hyper propaganda media dies off and some sense of using a few brain cells re-appears in the next few days markets including BTC will recover heavily.
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November 28, 2021, 04:14:59 PM
Last edit: November 28, 2021, 04:30:57 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Hueristic (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Something is up


Quote
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s


-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

BTW this pattern does not match 2017-2018  so maybe things are different.

If it means we meander about in 2022  much like 2021 it works for me.

Of course we are just starting and it could be freak luck.

Holy shit Philip. questioning if shenanigans? or a future BTC price drop?  or the dumbass point that BTC price follows hashrate?  oh gawd...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes  Yeah.. we might be at the end of a four year cycle this calendar year or even within the next three quarters.. so yeah.. BTC price could drop largely.. but it is not because of lowering of BTC hashing power that might have happened within the first two hours of a new difficulty period.

Think about it.  You make your assertions 2 hours after the previous difficulty adjustment and you see big numbers projected for the next difficulty adjustment based on 2 hours worth of data and you believe that is noteworthy or representative of something significant beyond your inclinations to get excited?  Get the fuck out of here.  We need more data.. at least several days worth of data before getting all worked up over 2 hours worth of data (that's about 12 blocks which is about .5% of the total 2016 blocks)

To put our current hashrate matter in context, we had 9 positive difficulties adjustments in a row and the most recent difficulty adjustment was a mere minus 1.5%.. zoom out a bit.

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038
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November 28, 2021, 04:18:24 PM

Several (non headline) articles I've read suggest that this Omicron carry on most likely has less severe symptoms.

Perhaps when the panic of politicians and hyper propaganda media dies off and some sense of using a few brain cells re-appears in the next few days markets including BTC will recover heavily.

I've stopped watching TV since 2016. Has the new mutation really caused so much fuss? Will go check some news sites...

Let's hope markets will come back to their senses, and price will resume UPpity soon.
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November 28, 2021, 04:20:53 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Something is up


Quote
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   711654  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   47.4676%  (7 / 14.75 expected, 7.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 11303551648240 and 22185553733226

Next Difficulty Change:   between -49.3924% and -0.6720%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 7:55 AM  (in 14d 0h 7m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2021 at 5:12 PM  (in 29d 9h 23m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 34m 40s and 29d 11h 51m 4s




-50% is wild and if it continues it can be an indicator of a large price drop to come.

BTW this pattern does not match 2017-2018  so maybe things are different.

If it means we meander about in 2022  much like 2021 it works for me.

Of course we are just starting and it could be freak luck.

 Seems as though China might still be messing with us.

source:  https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2021/11/26/multiple-mining-pools-are-facing-connectivity-issues/

"Major crypto mining pools including Binance Pool, F2pool, Poolin and ViaBTC are reporting connectivity problems, they said in their Telegram channels in the past 24 hours.

 • The issue is caused by domain name system (DNS) “pollution,” Binance Pool and Poolin said on their Chinese Telegram channels. F2pool also said the pool’s domain name is not being properly resolved.

 • The DNS is the internet service that converts domain names like coindesk.com into internet protocol (IP) addresses, which are strings of numbers. DNS poisoning can occur when a hacker redirects traffic from the domain name to an imposter website.

 • ViaBTC users are also reporting on Telegram that they are having difficulty accessing the pool. On its English Telegram channel, the pool acknowledged the issue but did not specifically mention DNS connectivity problems.

 • “The connectivity issues appear to be primarily affecting Chinese miners,” said Alejandro De La Torre, founder of ProofofWork.Energy consulting firm and former Poolin vice president. De La Torre thinks the Chinese government is likely interfering with the mining pools.

 • Binance Pool’s bitcoin hashrate is down 14% in the last 24 hours. F2pool has dropped almost 8% and ViaBTC has fallen by 7%, according to BIT Mining’s information platform.

 • A large part of the pools’ operations are located in China, which has vowed to eliminate crypto mining. While their hashrate does not come only from China, and they have said they plan to exit the country by year-end, the publication of material in Mandarin could be interpreted as courting its population.

 • Binance Pool, F2pool, and Poolin advised users to modify their DNS to solve the issue. Binance Pool said that a long term solution is to use a VPN to circumvent the country’s telecoms carrier."
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November 28, 2021, 04:29:02 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Mid-low grade hopium from yesterday. Strictly for addicts.

On-Chain Analysis: Long-Term Holders Start Selling – Bitcoin Ready for Surge

https://beincrypto.com/on-chain-analysis-long-term-holders-start-selling-bitcoin-ready-for-surge/
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November 28, 2021, 04:35:17 PM

• The issue is caused by domain name system (DNS) “pollution,” Binance Pool and Poolin said on their Chinese Telegram channels. F2pool also said the pool’s domain name is not being properly resolved.


Quite surprising if big miners are actually dependent on DNS.
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November 28, 2021, 04:50:42 PM

Pool plebs probably do, but I doubt they matter much in the grand scheme of things.
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November 28, 2021, 05:01:25 PM


Explanation
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November 28, 2021, 05:08:05 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

China ban, again
They change the wifi password
Daily dose of FUD




#haiku
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November 28, 2021, 05:36:39 PM

Basically, I treat my Bitcoin wallet as a bank account. I just deposit funds when available, and let it grow.

Ditto.

The only question is whether it is a "savings" or "checking" account (as they are called in US).
For some, maybe "checking", for myself -"savings".
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November 28, 2021, 05:58:39 PM

China ban, again
They change the wifi password
Daily dose of FUD


Hehe. Who cares?

They will do it until the end of the World.
Just close your eyes. xD  Grin
Buy More on Dip, Sit tight, Enjoy some memes and HODL.



Kitten me?




Basically, I treat my Bitcoin wallet as a bank account. I just deposit funds when available, and let it grow.

I am 1 Step Forward. I consider My Wallet as a My Fix Asset. As I am not going to spend a satoshi.
Just wondering when my next generation will find that I left Gems for them, How much happy they will be.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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November 28, 2021, 06:01:39 PM


Explanation
OutOfMemory
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November 28, 2021, 06:15:29 PM

Several (non headline) articles I've read suggest that this Omicron carry on most likely has less severe symptoms.

Perhaps when the panic of politicians and hyper propaganda media dies off and some sense of using a few brain cells re-appears in the next few days markets including BTC will recover heavily.

You might be aware, as a hodler of a "high risk asset", you would not fall into panic mode as easily as the ordinary civilian  Wink
Beause we have a separate thread for coughvid, i'll limit this to one line:
High virus replication levels in the upper respiratory tract mucous membranes actually link to high spreading rate but less danger for the host organism, so a new variant of this likes is actually good news.
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November 28, 2021, 06:44:44 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

And i bought the dip at 66k

I slap myself with a trout.
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