Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

95%+ of WO'ers had no clue who that is, because they aren't old enough to have actually seen a movie that he was in. They had to google who he was.

I'm glad to be one of the 5% who knows who it is - so even though Sidney Poitier may have been in the shadow of great actors like Katharine Hepburn & Spencer Tracy in Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (1967), I personally remember him from that film in which he has achieved one of his best roles for me personally. RIP💐

Raisin in the sun

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Raisin_in_the_Sun_(1961_film)


very good movie

My all time favorite is "Lilies of the Field"


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lilies_of_the_Field_(1963_film)

[Flangler1]

I actually did look into it and my conclusion is that the biggest fear is when the bear market is starting.
Here I drew lines where Fear&Greed hit 10 or went below . This tool is more usefoul in short term trading rather long term.

[philipma1957]

I actually did look into it and my conclusion is that the biggest fear is when the bear market is starting.
Here I drew lines where Fear&Greed hit 10 or went below . This tool is more usefoul in short term trading rather long term.

I got some Tasty 40k dip today

[JayJuanGee]

This made me laugh but sometimes I found it bitter truth

CB takes it from $47k>$46k>$45k>$44k>$43k>$42k and now we stand at $41k but still holding hard because i Know we will grow at one point and some bullish news will take us to rocket upwards as the engine ignition is happening soon and all these price levels will be burst out in the fire.

Just HOLD strong.

Huh?  I thought that you are in very early BTC accumulation stages, so why would you even be close to contemplating anything other than the employment of various BTC accumulation strategies.. when to buy and how much to buy.  HODL does not embrace that concept, unless you may have run out of money because you had been too aggressive with your buys. 

In other words, you seem to be mis-using the concept of HODL that does not seems to apply to your actual situation... unless I misunderstand what you are wanting to say.

Sure, you have outlined a historic practice of buying weekly, so why would that practice of buying change, unless you merely either attempt to buy more on the dip (to be more aggressive with your buys) or something like that.

A HODL strategy is usually for someone who has already accumulated quite a bit of BTC and might be nervous about a further potential BTC drop.. Yes, the point in which you might have accumulated too much BTC is going to differ from some people, and sometimes people are struggling to get up to even $100 per week to invest into bitcoin, so the amount of their bitcoin might seem to be a lot when it might start to represent years of salary.. and then at the same time it is dropping from "profitable" to being "in the red."

For sure, these are times that test the commitment of the accumulators to continue to accumulate, including to test if maybe some of the accumulators might have been investing more than they can afford to lose.. especially if your BTC portfolio might have gone from something like 20% to 50% in profits to 20% to 50% into negative territories.. then do you continue to buy, or do you stop buying and merely "hodl?"  which also makes little to no sense if you are actually in relatively early stages of BTC accumulation mode.

Sometimes the guys predicting the direction of the market during times like this try to outsmart the market and to sell some or all of their BTC upon a 41%-ish price correction out of hopes to buy back lower.... and sometimes those guys might not have a whole hell of a lot of BTC, so they do not feel comfortable selling just part of their BTC as a kind of insurance (which is already dumb), they double down on dumb and they sell all of their BTC, so instead of having a decently size stash of 0.42 BTC, they end up with 0.3 BTC or some other ways in which they are not able to get back to the quantity of BTC that they previously had which frequently is not a good strategy to be gambling like that, even if sometimes it could end up paying off.. but more like luck rather than a good strategy..

Seems to me that anyone in early BTC accumulation should not be entering into any HODL strategy unless s/he might have gotten too aggressive on buying on dips and DCA'ing and maybe run out of money having had thought that he blew his whole wadd on the dip.. but the BTC price keeps dipping... so that would likely be HODL.. until more money comes in... but is that any different from continuing to employ a DCA strategy?  If your DCA strategy is with an amount of money that you have already budgeted, such as $100 per week, then you should continue with $100 per week and not be trying to time the market with that money (except maybe such timing might be acceptable within whichever week that you have authorized your BTC buys).   

Surely, if you have more money coming in from time to time, then maybe you do not want to fold that within your DCA, and you end up classifying that additional money as authorized for buying on dip, so with that money you might want to attempt to be strategic for when you buy.. whether now or you wait a bit (HODL) until a time that feels comfortable for you to employ that additional money that might have come in that goes beyond your regular DCA amounts.

By the way, I understand that it might seem that I am being unduly harsh on peeps who come from lower income locations, but I am still going to have trouble understanding how even a $100 per week buying of bitcoin will give you the sense of being over-invested after only about 7 months of investing into BTC.  Now, if you had been investing $100 per week in BTC for 4 years, and you had accumulated something like 2.22 BTC, then I may well have a bit more sympathy that you might want to attempt to strategize with some of that BTC, and the use of HODL would likely be an applicable use of the word.... so surely, if you are starting to acquire higher levels of BTC, such as already having 2.22 BTC, then you might start to consider that you have already invested enough.. especially given your total income and the other assets that you have... in which bitcoin might be the bulk of your whole wealth, so at a certain point you may well logically start to get worried about putting more value into bitcoin.

[friends1980]

RIP

95%+ of WO'ers had no clue who that is, because they aren't old enough to have actually seen a movie that he was in. They had to google who he was.

I’m underage, but the day before it was on the news …. They showed a few movie pieces

Mostly movies around colored people they said

I never saw him before the news article

I believe 93 years old which is a very nice age….

Now he can RIP

Can't help thinking about the pilot from "Only fools and horses". Another series most of you are prolly too young for. (don't feel insulted 'cause that also means I'm old)

I remember the first lines being a discussion about "Sidney Potter, you know he always plays the black fella".

Hilarious.

RIP.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

Well we're back to the price we were at last year at this time which means there's a year's worth of really tasty dip to be had!




edit: Screw you chart buddy! 

[BitcoinBunny]

Some people here were following this.

An update and some interesting facts.

"James Webb telescope completes epic deployment sequence"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59914936

[xhomerx10]

Some people here were following this.

An update and some interesting facts.

"James Webb telescope completes epic deployment sequence"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59914936

 Humans are awesome!

[BitcoinBunny]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10381775/Bitcoin-tumbles-8-Kazakhstan-internet-shutdown-hits-cryptocurrency-mining-operation.html#comments

The dumbed down drama queens over at the Daily Mail think it's all over. Well they probably don't actually think that, but they like to give that impression to get some advert clicks I guess.





Read the stupid comments and up vs down votes to see just how early we are.

People still don't get it (some copy and pasted comments with a few of my own reactions):


"But why do all the altcoins follow Bitcoin? Even the proof of stake ones you can't mine?"

"Unless Bitcoin is powered by wind, solar or nuclear energy, it is a doomed concept. Don't believe me ?, Just wait and see......."

"Bitcoins are like the Emporer's new clothes!!! Only fools buy them."

"You can't say that because you don't know how many coins will be issued tomorrow. Do not believe what they say; they fixed the quantity now but can do whatever in future."

"using real energy to create a fake currency wont end well."  - What a cracker that one, considering recent inflation.

"It seems to me that if this ridiculous sc@m of mining bitcoin (in other words creating equations?) uses so much electricity to produce nothing more tangible than thin air, then governments around the world should stop charging their citizens Green Taxes and land the crypto firms with gigantic Green Windfall Taxes." - Crypto miners aren't helping to fund green taxes also??

"Dump Crypto buy gold." - Peter Schiff has a DM comments account I see.

"Pontzi scheme"

"The bitcoin is worsening climate change. We should blow up bitcoin factories to save earth"   - Please point out the Bitcoin factories on a map along with easy to find via Google known locations of Fort Knox, the Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, Swiss gold vaults and just about every centralised national bank that we know exists. Can you do that?

""The bitcoin is a big balloon, which will end soon. Ask yourself, what is the collateral of the bitcoin? A enormous quantity of WASTED and paid electric power. Is there a government, economic, army, natural resources behind it? NO.NO.NO. Only a formula with"  - That is the whole point, it is decentralised from a parasitic government or army.

"Surely if there's less crypto currency it the value should go up?" - They really ought to update economics classes but they probably never will as the establishment wants to keep the fiat scam going.

"And that's how safe bitcoin is, your money disappears in seconds" - Up 40x in 5 years, whereas most western fiat is down about 40% in 5 years I reckon.

"Considering the world is trying to conserve our energy consumption and lesson the effect on global warming for future generations it seems like Bitcoin is a bit of an issue. You investors are now kiiling Polar Bears and corroding our coastline" - Making fake dollars never hurt any single little furry creature you think?

"Crypto the new word for thicko"


"Bit Coins ? It's make believe money for gullible people who think chocolate coins are real and bite into them just to check. Monopoly money doesn't fool anyone not even granny." - Well monopoly (fiat) money is fooling YOU it seems.

"Bitcoin is literally burning money to make pretend money. It's a blight and is only in existence because shady billionaires want to take down nations ability to control their own currencies." - You're saying nations currently aren't controlled by billionaires? Really?

"Oh no not crypto, sad pathetic currency people use during a midlife crisis thinking they are millionaires" - I suspect there are more millionaires in WO alone than in the DM comments section.
   



To be fair, there are now some people in the DM comments that have wised up for sure!
"No big deal. Buy the dip."

 

[JayJuanGee]

Didn’t make the same mistake this time, dumped 25% of my bags between 53.8k & 65k, set for life & now, seeing this dump & likely transition to bear market……
~
I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
If you did, I hope you can live peacefully until the next bull cycle which will start in 2024. If you sold nothing don’t worry, we will hit 100k & above but not in 2022 & most likely not 2023 either. 2024 & 2025 we ride again.

First, I still have hopes we don't hit the bear market yet. After all, It's too round at the top. It need to be pointy. I also think the influence of halvings becomes less and less powerful, and the 4 year cycle will at some point be a thing of the past. Dollars and euros going up against Bitcoin just doesn't make sense!
But (for now), I regret not selling some close to the peak. In 2017 I sold some right before the peak, and I sold a substantial part at the end of 2019 to pay taxes. The price at that time was less than half of what it is now, and that sale makes me feel uncomfortable selling more now. After all, my bags are too small to be "set for life". If that would have been the case, I would have done the same as you did, but unfortunately I need a slightly higher price for a decent amount of "set for life". "Locking in" set-for-life status while keeping 75% in Bitcoin looks like a very good scenario to me

Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources.

Many of us recall that we had a dip in late 2018 and another dip in late 2019, yet maybe you were able to get some kind of higher price rather than selling at the bottom.. but surely that price range in late 2019 would have been anywhere between $7k-ish and $10k-ish.. depending on when and how you carried out your sales.. and surely that would have NOT been feeling good once we went on our September 2020 to April 2021 UPpity move of 6.5x.

It can take a while to get your stack up to a sufficiently decent size to be able to just shave off 25% and then to be comfortable either way.. and surely there is a need to be thinking a bit ahead, even though it was risky for LFC to have had employed that big of a play, but at least he did it with forethought and on the way up rather than panicking on the way down.. which frequently happens.. and surely some of his sales at $53k-ish probably felt like  panicking on the way down.. but they seem decent now....

So, yeah, what level of BTC do you need to feel comfortable enough that you are either entering into entry-level fuck you status.. or pre entry level fuck you status or even having a cushion for getting well into fuck you status... and for sure, I am sticking with my use of the 208-week moving average (and my projection of those numbers outwardly) because I believe that the 208-week moving average is a pretty damned conservative metric, especially when measuring whether currently you are in fuck you status or close to fuck you status which now puts you at around 105 BTC ($2,000,000 / $19k), but in 2025 and 2029 based on the current projection of the 208-week moving average you would ONLY need about 8.7 BTC and 0.7 BTC respectively.. 

Of course, the 208-week moving average is a kind of delayed indicator, so with the passage of time, you can attempt to measure where the 208-week moving average is at and adjust your projections if you conclude that the 208-week moving average is not moving up at it's historical levels of about 75% per year (which are shown in my chart). and surely, if you do not believe the numbers/projections from my chart, then you can make your own chart in order to attempt to figure out your comfort level regarding how many BTC you believe that you need at a particular point in time to enter into fuck you status.. or what you would consider fuck you status or a kind of level of cashing out that is comfortable for you to feel that you are sufficiently hedged in either direction and to start consuming some of your BTC (with hookers, lambos and blow) or investing in other asset classes (such as homes, businesses, equities or PMs).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

I'm sure this has been shared at least 12 times before but let me bring it back one more time

Once upon a time on Thu Jan 8, 14:27:40 EST 2009

Thirteen years ago on this day, Satoshi Nakamoto released the first code of #Bitcoin  v0.1.

With these 16,000 lines of code and a whitepaper, Satoshi Nakamoto changed the course of humanity, forever.

If you haven’t read it:




https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1479802224264069122?s=21

[philipma1957]

Well we're back to the price we were at last year at this time which means there's a year's worth of really tasty dip to be had!




edit: Screw you chart buddy!  

or sideways it is.  .

Right JJG?


until it is up

[Farmer Bill]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10381775/Bitcoin-tumbles-8-Kazakhstan-internet-shutdown-hits-cryptocurrency-mining-operation.html#comments

The dumbed down drama queens over at the Daily Mail think it's all over. Well they probably don't actually think that, but they like to give that impression to get some advert clicks I guess.





Read the stupid comments and up vs down votes to see just how early we are.

People still don't get it (some copy and pasted comments with a few of my own reactions):


"But why do all the altcoins follow Bitcoin? Even the proof of stake ones you can't mine?"

"Unless Bitcoin is powered by wind, solar or nuclear energy, it is a doomed concept. Don't believe me ?, Just wait and see......."

"Bitcoins are like the Emporer's new clothes!!! Only fools buy them."

"You can't say that because you don't know how many coins will be issued tomorrow. Do not believe what they say; they fixed the quantity now but can do whatever in future."

"using real energy to create a fake currency wont end well."  - What a cracker that one, considering recent inflation.

"It seems to me that if this ridiculous sc@m of mining bitcoin (in other words creating equations?) uses so much electricity to produce nothing more tangible than thin air, then governments around the world should stop charging their citizens Green Taxes and land the crypto firms with gigantic Green Windfall Taxes." - Crypto miners aren't helping to fund green taxes also??

"Dump Crypto buy gold." - Peter Schiff has a DM comments account I see.

"Pontzi scheme"

"The bitcoin is worsening climate change. We should blow up bitcoin factories to save earth"   - Please point out the Bitcoin factories on a map along with easy to find via Google known locations of Fort Knox, the Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, Swiss gold vaults and just about every centralised national bank that we know exists. Can you do that?

""The bitcoin is a big balloon, which will end soon. Ask yourself, what is the collateral of the bitcoin? A enormous quantity of WASTED and paid electric power. Is there a government, economic, army, natural resources behind it? NO.NO.NO. Only a formula with"  - That is the whole point, it is decentralised from a parasitic government or army.

"Surely if there's less crypto currency it the value should go up?" - They really ought to update economics classes but they probably never will as the establishment wants to keep the fiat scam going.

"And that's how safe bitcoin is, your money disappears in seconds" - Up 40x in 5 years, whereas most western fiat is down about 40% in 5 years I reckon.

"Considering the world is trying to conserve our energy consumption and lesson the effect on global warming for future generations it seems like Bitcoin is a bit of an issue. You investors are now kiiling Polar Bears and corroding our coastline" - Making fake dollars never hurt any single little furry creature you think?

"Crypto the new word for thicko"


"Bit Coins ? It's make believe money for gullible people who think chocolate coins are real and bite into them just to check. Monopoly money doesn't fool anyone not even granny." - Well monopoly (fiat) money is fooling YOU it seems.

"Bitcoin is literally burning money to make pretend money. It's a blight and is only in existence because shady billionaires want to take down nations ability to control their own currencies." - You're saying nations currently aren't controlled by billionaires? Really?

"Oh no not crypto, sad pathetic currency people use during a midlife crisis thinking they are millionaires" - I suspect there are more millionaires in WO alone than in the DM comments section.
   



To be fair, there are now some people in the DM comments that have wised up for sure!
"No big deal. Buy the dip."

 

Thanks for a good laugh BitcoinBunny, Daily Mail readers not the sharpest tools in the box.

Comment "Hope your EU leaders kick Kazakhstan out of the EU, for cracking down peaceful protesters"
Hmm did not realize EU had expanded 3000 miles to the East.

Even more disturbing is the propaganda element.
First two images Bitcoin price graphs, followed by image 3 a protestor getting arrested at gunpoint.
More images of the carnage interspersed with an image of computers.
Obviously suggesting the cause of this is something to do with Bitcoin.
Are Daily Mail owners suddenly desperate to acquire Bitcoin?

The rest of the comments the usual mix of wilful ignorance and proof that MSM propaganda against Bitcoin is being internalized well by a great number of people. Plus the increasing minority that do get it.
  


 

[sirazimuth]

 ♩  ♩  ♫     
I  was thinking!
♩  ♩  ♫ ♫   
About all that was sinking!....

[LoyceV]

Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources.

I have to correct something: I typed the wrong year, and fixed my post: it was the end of 2020 when I sold a substantial part to pay taxes, not 2019. That was around 75% under the peak price. Still not desirable, but better than 2019 would have been.

[philipma1957]

Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources.

I have to correct something: I typed the wrong year, and fixed my post: it was the end of 2020 when I sold a substantial part to pay taxes, not 2019. That was around 75% under the peak price. Still not desirable, but better than 2019 would have been.

Just paid my largest tax bill ever.

glad I sold enough in the 62-67k range to cover them.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]