Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources.

I have to correct something: I typed the wrong year, and fixed my post: it was the end of 2020 when I sold a substantial part to pay taxes, not 2019. That was around 75% under the peak price. Still not desirable, but better than 2019 would have been.

Just paid my largest tax bill ever.

glad I sold enough in the 62-67k range to cover them.

You pay estimated? Good practice, quite big fees if you underpay by April (and do it two years in a row).
I always pay whatever turbotax tells me to pay as estimated PLUS if a big sell happened, then add estimated cap gains tax for that Q.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Is that a green candle?



Seriously though, any chance we could resume the bull market? Nothing would make me happier, I am doubtful though.

[BobLawblaw]

If we hit $39.5k, I'm going to start stacking again. Trying to keep my cash reserves where they are right now due to the ranch starting to really hit its stride.

I see the market makers have finally caught wind of this post, and recognized the serious implications it would have.

You are all welcome.

* BobLawblaw bows

[Biodom]

@LFC let's take it one day at the time.
Sure, it could go either way.

Looked at all Webb's stuff. Awesome so far.
Fingers crossed for the deployment into final orbit and individual mirror alignments.
I am "ready" for it to observe either a Dyson sphere (if there are any) or just funky "primordial" gas from 13.5-13.7 bil years ago.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Looking for this... maybe?

[ivan376]

I think this IHU variant in France causes this BTC dips for the last 2 days. Just like what happens when omicron variant was first discovered in South Africa.

[philipma1957]

Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources.

I have to correct something: I typed the wrong year, and fixed my post: it was the end of 2020 when I sold a substantial part to pay taxes, not 2019. That was around 75% under the peak price. Still not desirable, but better than 2019 would have been.

Just paid my largest tax bill ever.

glad I sold enough in the 62-67k range to cover them.

You pay estimated? Good practice, quite big fees if you underpay by April (and do it two years in a row).
I always pay whatever turbotax tells me to pay as estimated PLUS if a big sell happened, then add estimated cap gains tax for that Q.

Yeah estimated it is.  and last quarter mmpool.org hit 3 blocks of which I collected bigly. So I had to pay more for the last quarter than the first 3 combined. Had to redo all my tax moves due to the extra BTC

[d_eddie]

last quarter mmpool.org hit 3 blocks of which I collected bigly. So I had to pay more for the last quarter than the first 3 combined. Had to redo all my tax moves due to the extra BTC

PILF

Problems I'd like to fight

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@Macroscope17
Something that should help cushion BTC's downside in this cycle: yield.

In previous years it was a purely speculative asset. Not true anymore.

In a world of low rates, the ability to earn yield becomes very attractive when tacked onto potential long-term capital appreciation.
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479895758434357254?s=21

@Macroscope17
I can tell you anecdotally that the ability to earn yield is increasingly attracting high net worth investors to the space. We also know from public statements and SEC filings that companies are doing this or considering it, including MicroStrategy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/microstrategy-may-lend-out-its-bitcoin-trove-to-generate-yield
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479897444737552387?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

last quarter mmpool.org hit 3 blocks of which I collected bigly. So I had to pay more for the last quarter than the first 3 combined. Had to redo all my tax moves due to the extra BTC

PILF

Problems I'd like to fight

Yeah 2021 was very good to me both $$$ and BTCBTCBTC wise.

Not in the league of many others  on the thread but I finally could end up as JJG say with f you money.

Maybe in 2 years  I would be there.

[somac.]

@Macroscope17
Something that should help cushion BTC's downside in this cycle: yield.

In previous years it was a purely speculative asset. Not true anymore.

In a world of low rates, the ability to earn yield becomes very attractive when tacked onto potential long-term capital appreciation.
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479895758434357254?s=21

@Macroscope17
I can tell you anecdotally that the ability to earn yield is increasingly attracting high net worth investors to the space. We also know from public statements and SEC filings that companies are doing this or considering it, including MicroStrategy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/microstrategy-may-lend-out-its-bitcoin-trove-to-generate-yield
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479897444737552387?s=21

This is the reason I'm not selling, I can generate enough yield off my stash to retire and even make repayments on a mortgage when I get one. Though if price does go above ATH again this year it will be very tempting to sell a few to get a better home than what just the mortgage would get.

[dragonvslinux]

Seriously though, any chance we could resume the bull market? Nothing would make me happier, I am doubtful though.

Just for you, since I know you're still holding 75% of stash and therefore hoping for upside. Here are some squiggly lines for you, as if drawn by a child, with volume profile included:



The point beside being a little drunk rn, is that last years move from $30K-$40K (accumulation) to $50K-$60K (distribution) meant very little in the long-term perspective, as price didn't continue higher. Now price has dropped from $69K down to $40K, it again means very little in the long-term, only that it's likely price returns to the accumulation zone. Just like when price returned to the distribution zone, for more distribution.

I think despite all the technical analysis, fundamentals, on-chain data and otherwise that vary between bullish and bearish, this is pretty neutral trading right now. Bouncing from above the accumulation zone, prior to further accumulation would be very bullish, but otherwise returning to the accumulation zone isn't as bearish as people consider, as there's nothing unhealthy about long-term consolidation at higher levels.

Of course price could drop to $25K, even $20K, but ultimately for the past 12 months this has always been the case. The only difference is that now it's less likely it seems. I'm still pretty bearish short-term, as only see broken support from what turned out to be no mans land (not re-accumulation), but I otherwise struggle to consider that the bear market has truly begun given the healthy accumulation and distribution pattern.

Sure it could take some months, maybe even many, but I doubt it will take until 2023, 2024 or 2025 until there is a new ATH again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Seriously though, any chance we could resume the bull market? Nothing would make me happier, I am doubtful though.

Just for you, since I know you're still holding 75% of stash and therefore hoping for upside. Here are some squiggly lines for you, as if drawn by a child, with volume profile included:



The point beside being a little drunk rn, is that last years move from $30K-$40K (accumulation) to $50K-$60K (distribution) meant very little in the long-term perspective, as price didn't continue higher. Now price has dropped from $69K down to $40K, it again means very little in the long-term, only that it's likely price returns to the accumulation zone. Just like when price returned to the distribution zone, for more distribution.

I think despite all the technical analysis, fundamentals, on-chain data and otherwise that vary between bullish and bearish, this is pretty neutral trading right now. Bouncing from above the accumulation zone, prior to further accumulation would be very bullish, but otherwise returning to the accumulation zone isn't as bearish as people consider, as there's nothing unhealthy about long-term consolidation at higher levels.

Of course price could drop to $25K, even $20K, but ultimately for the past 12 months this has always been the case. The only difference is that now it's less likely it seems. I'm still pretty bearish short-term, as only see broken support from what turned out to be no mans land (not re-accumulation), but I otherwise struggle to consider that the bear market has truly begun given the healthy accumulation and distribution pattern.

Sure it could take some months, maybe even many, but I doubt it will take until 2023, 2024 or 2025 until there is a new ATH again.

Nice analysis, but TA cannot include some macro factors like Chinese ban in May 2021. Without it, we would have made the trip to 100K already, most likely.
I am generally agreeing with everything, apart from the new ATH in 2022, but, hey, I think that 60K and even a stretch to 65K is possible, so it could be close.

To contrast, you still think that we are in the bull market, whereas I think that prior is either already over or ending with, hopefully, a milder bear (it very well just be a retest of 29K plus minus one-two K).
To me, there is nothing in current behavior that indicates bull continuation. Alas, if it suddenly turns up, I might consider that the bull is still alive, otherwise I am of the opinion that we are in the new market cycle already with relative flat (or band of 29-60K) continuing for a while.

[xhomerx10]

  __  __                           _                                                                                                     
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            __/ |                                                                                         __/ |                         
           |___/                                                                                         |___/                           
  __  __ _     _                         _                     _                                                  _                     
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   ____   __   _   _                                                                                                                     
  / __ \ / _| | | | |                                                                                                                   
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 | |__| | |   | |_| | | |  __/  \ V  V / (_| | |_| |  \ V  V /  __/  \ V  V /  __/ | |  __/                                             
  \____/|_|    \__|_| |_|\___|   \_/\_/ \__,_|\__, |   \_/\_/ \___|   \_/\_/ \___|_|  \___|                                             
                                               __/ |                                                                                     
                                              |___/                                                                                     
 

 

 Oscar-winning lyricist Marilyn Bergman dies at 93

 Anyone remember the song "Sweet Gingerbread Man"?
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds5FpBNNBtM

[Hueristic]

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds5FpBNNBtM

Well fuck, that shit is gonna screw my algorithm!   

I'll get u for that!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds5FpBNNBtM

Well fuck, that shit is gonna screw my algorithm!  

I'll get u for that!

...........Aham.....