Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

The plan has always been to inflate the debt away. But to do that in the "normal" way, you need to check your deficit, especially when there is growth, and only grow the debt in bad times. The US has stopped doing that, it was particularly glaring under Trump, crazy deficit despite an overheating economy (that was before COVID). I don't get why people "in the know", regardless of cryptos, are not feeling very uncomfortable with what's going on. It's clearly the case of the Fed, that why it's becoming hawkish, but if only the Fed is concerned, it won't be enough.

Feels to me like they know the train is coming off the rails soon and just want to loot as much as possible while there's looting to be had. The people behind all this will not be in the country when people come looking for them.

sure the house of cards smoke and mirror scamming platform shitcoin called ETH may well have good chances to outperform the dollar,

At this point, a 2x4 will outperform the dollar. Handily.

[JayJuanGee]

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds5FpBNNBtM

Well fuck, that shit is gonna screw my algorithm!  

I'll get u for that!

Whoa, that's awesome! I never knew the vid of my class musical I starred in would be posted on YT!





You can clearly see from my amazing choreographed moves, I was Michael Jackson's main influence...

Opsec sirazimuth!!!!!!!    

otherwise you are egging to get a batslappening, even if you had happened to have been a child prodigy.





 

I am always trying to attack my biases.  And right now I am biased towards us not entering a crypto winter, as I have recently posted.

BUT.  I think I have found a scenario that might tend to undo my optimism...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-reflect-growing-unease-over-high-inflation-11641409628

Inflation has the us Federal Reserve talking seriously about quantitative tightening.  This means higher interest rates.  And I think that could mean a few things:

1.  The stock market is a goner if they do this.  The reason we continue to see crazy upwards stonks is in great part due to the fact that they keep printing money and lowering interest rates.  This could take some of the wind out of those sales.  And those prices are so bubblicious already that it's hard to imagine anything but a bloodbath.

2.  Bitcoin is currently seen (by most) as the king of risk investments still... so I would expect Bitcoin might follow the stock market.

In some ways it's hard to say what they might do because they have painted themselves into a corner.  Crashing the already limping enconomy in the name of stopping inflation?  Or keep printing and shift into negative interest rates causing absolute explosions in risk assets and making a can of beans cost $4.

Hmm...  I kind of wish I had not had this thought... I was preferring the bullish mania I was in before...

Yeah well, this is why bitcoins exists...so Bullish as usual.
your getting trapped in short term thinking.

FTFY  - Hueristic;..... your font-size needs to be seen.. especially when you are making a very good point.  

Over and over we have witnessed a whole hell of a lot of short-term correlations in bitcoinlandia, and sometimes peeps (even bitcoin OGs) want to analyze such short or even medium-term correlations to death, and it is not like those correlations are not true or that they are making invalid points, even while in the longer term, we see that bitcoin is going to eat the lunch of a lot of the short to medium-term correlations..

In other words, the short to medium-term correlations may or may not even end up playing out .. and the more important analysis happens to be various other price dynamics of bitcoin including stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles, so even if you want to poo-poo those three mentioned price dynamic model considerations and give them less weight because you believe they are broken because they did not follow your short-term expectations to a "t" (not referring to you Hueristic).. you better still be considering some kind of a similar framework to those above-mentioned credible BTC price models without running the risk of getting ur lil selfie reckt as fuck because being too distracted by various short to medium term macro correlations can reck a guy (or a gal)... anyhow.. seems to be too risky to even attempt to be placing any kind of meaningful/substantial bet on those kinds of potential short to medium-term macro-correlation nonsenses.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

......
You can clearly see from my amazing choreographed moves, I was Michael Jackson's main influence...

Opsec sirazimuth!!!!!!!   

.....

......

You didn't think I was actually serious did you? lol. 
Then again, I showed vid to my daughter with same tall tale and I almost had her believing for like two seconds. lmao!
(the ginger hairdo mop got her thinking)

......

otherwise you are egging to get a batslappening, even if you had happened to have been a child prodigy.

 

Well, if being a rambunctious know it all brat, and pissing off one's parents and all one's elementary school teachers with silly shenanigans, are attributes of a child prodigy, then I'm guilty as charged...
Better give me a good batslappening Jay...

[cAPSLOCK]

Yeah well, this is why bitcoins exists...so Bullish as usual.
your getting trapped in short term thinking.

FTFY  - Hueristic;..... your font-size needs to be seen.. especially when you are making a very good point.  

Over and over we have witnessed a whole hell of a lot of short-term correlations in bitcoinlandia, and sometimes peeps (even bitcoin OGs) want to analyze such short or even medium-term correlations to death, and it is not like those correlations are not true or that they are making invalid points, even while in the longer term, we see that bitcoin is going to eat the lunch of a lot of the short to medium-term correlations..

In other words, the short to medium-term correlations may or may not even end up playing out .. and the more important analysis happens to be various other price dynamics of bitcoin including stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles, so even if you want to poo-poo those three mentioned price dynamic model considerations and give them less weight because you believe they are broken because they did not follow your short-term expectations to a "t" (not referring to you Hueristic).. you better still be considering some kind of a similar framework to those above-mentioned credible BTC price models without running the risk of getting ur lil selfie reckt as fuck because being too distracted by various short to medium term macro correlations can reck a guy (or a gal)... anyhow.. seems to be too risky to even attempt to be placing any kind of meaningful/substantial bet on those kinds of potential short to medium-term macro-correlation nonsenses.

I actually had the same thought... that most of the time having the punchline as size=1 is fun, but that one is too important for people to have to go to the extra trouble to decode it.

NOW.

I want to clear my name.  If one were to look at my trading history (not aptly named), one would never say I was a short term thinker.  Although I did NOT buy any in the 40k realm.  But that is more because I am just broke, rather than I don't think this is a bottom.  I am actually mixed on the idea that this could be a bottom.  But I do think we are sitting on a pretty strong contender.  If there is more to go?  Well, it is what it is, and hopefully I will have some extra dough to throw at the corn in the 30s.

That said... short term price predictions and the like are the very soul of wall observing, right?  I mean... this thread would be MUCH more boring if it was called "The Long Time Preference Holding No Matter What Observer".  Right?

Speaking of which... I am looking at TWO nice looking bullflags in a row on a SUNDAY no less.  If this is a bulltrap it will be very well played...

[JayJuanGee]

More fine #hopium

https://twitter.com/cryptomanran/status/1480063160539402243

The majority of the leverage in the market now is large shorts. We know this because price collapsed and the leverage didn’t. If we get a rally it could trigger the mother of all short squeezes. I’m talking $10k candles.

We have had 10k daily drops

10k daily pumps would be appropriate but nothing more. ….

Now we want 20k candles

If I understand your point, I do believe that we are in the process of graduating from $10k to $20k for the green candles, but we are in that awkward period in which we are NOT quite there yet.....

I also agree that it is perhaps conditional on whether we revisit at least mid 30-ies area. In fact, this is the second best scenario (the best being a simple bull continuation) as it would suggest the lows (or a simple retest of 29-30K) by the Spring and then off we go (bullish period of the next cycle starts).

I have my doubts whether it would be fair to characterize the kind of scenario that you are outlining as a new or next cycle, even though it is NOT completely illogical.

If we were to end up getting a blow-off top at anytime in 2022 or even 1st quarter of 2023 (sure even what constitutes enough UPpity price movement to be a blow-off top could be arguable depending on the degree and extent of the subsequent correction... seems that $220k plus would more arguably constitute a blow off top rather than tops that come in below $220k), reasonable arguments could be made that such top was just a delay in the earlier cycle...

Yet overall a lot of these kinds of "how to label" the BTC price dynamics arguments seem a bit premature when projecting out for the remainder of 2022.. even though it does not hurt to already have a tentative framework and even though for sure many of us are going to attempt to label (whether now, or at any later date along our bitcoin price journey)  in order that we can attempt to better understand where we are at based on where we have been and in order to attempt to better project reasonable frameworks for where we might be going.

sure the house of cards smoke and mirror scamming platform shitcoin called ETH may well have good chances to outperform the dollar,

At this point, a 2x4 will outperform the dollar. Handily.

Fair point.

......
You can clearly see from my amazing choreographed moves, I was Michael Jackson's main influence...

Opsec sirazimuth!!!!!!!    

.....

......

You didn't think I was actually serious did you? lol.  

Yes I did.  lol.


We have to believe everything that we read on the interwebs.  Don't uie no nuttin?

Then again, I showed vid to my daughter with same tall tale and I almost had her believing for like two seconds. lmao!
(the ginger hairdo mop got her thinking)

Can't get those years back..


reminisce though..

yes.

......

otherwise you are egging to get a batslappening, even if you had happened to have been a child prodigy.

 

Well, if being a rambunctious know it all brat, and pissing off one's parents and all one's elementary school teachers with silly shenanigans, are attributes of a child prodigy, then I'm guilty as charged...
Better give me a good batslappening Jay...

I am thinking that any Batslappening (especially virtual) does not work very well when the intended recipient is requesting/wanting it.  Some kind of alternative might be justified?  Maybe somehow forcing you to hang out in a one room school house with Save the RF for a day might suffice.. but not sure how to achieve?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[heslo]

Being a HUGE Trek fan, especially TNG and knowing the episode this is from; this is a perfect meme and just take my merits haha

[El duderino_]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1480278373142310914

... PlanB so retro now, in the foothills of the super cycle?

I know some people have lost faith in this #bitcoin bull market. However we are only halfway into the cycle (2020-2024). And although BTC experiences some turbulence at $1T, the yellow gold cluster at S2F60/$10T (small black dots are 2009-2021 gold data)  is still the target IMO.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

I am always trying to attack my biases.  And right now I am biased towards us not entering a crypto winter, as I have recently posted.

BUT.  I think I have found a scenario that might tend to undo my optimism...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-reflect-growing-unease-over-high-inflation-11641409628

Inflation has the us Federal Reserve talking seriously about quantitative tightening.  This means higher interest rates.  And I think that could mean a few things:

1.  The stock market is a goner if they do this.  The reason we continue to see crazy upwards stonks is in great part due to the fact that they keep printing money and lowering interest rates.  This could take some of the wind out of those sales.  And those prices are so bubblicious already that it's hard to imagine anything but a bloodbath.

2.  Bitcoin is currently seen (by most) as the king of risk investments still... so I would expect Bitcoin might follow the stock market.

In some ways it's hard to say what they might do because they have painted themselves into a corner.  Crashing the already limping enconomy in the name of stopping inflation?  Or keep printing and shift into negative interest rates causing absolute explosions in risk assets and making a can of beans cost $4.

Hmm...  I kind of wish I had not had this thought... I was preferring the bullish mania I was in before...

I think this has already been posted here (or where would I get it from?), but Arthur Hayes depicts the same scenario. A good read as usual.

https://cryptohayes.medium.com/maelstrom-ee6021e9d0c2

EDIT: I prefer the bullish mania, too.

Hayes is ov er my head for most of that, but I agree it kind of sounds like hes on the same page pretty much.  Ugh.

 Hayes has done well for himself with Bitcoin.  He's a handsome guy who has charm, charisma, a boatload of confidence and a shit-eating grin but...
 


 He might have a BS in economics but that first paragraph was just plain BS; I stopped reading.  Then I decided to give it another chance and I read a little further until I read, "the price of Bitcoin swooned".  The article wasn't written for a hodler anway.  So I spent the balance of my time make the gif above.

Hopefully I don't regret my decision in the future.

[Copetech]

 


 
Hopefully I don't regret my decision in the future.

I know it's just a GIF, but IRL if this kid didn't get 20+ stitches to put his face back together, physics failed!

[xhomerx10]

 


 
Hopefully I don't regret my decision in the future.

I know it's just a GIF, but IRL if this kid didn't get 20+ stitches to put his face back together, physics failed!

 Arthur is easy.  Stitches are hard.  

 edit: It doesn't appear as though he gets cut.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOihfZE9Guw

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

from reddit:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2021/12/28/nasa-is-set-to-explore-a-massive-metal-asteroid-called-psyche-thats-worth-way-more-than-our-global-economy/

maybe a surprise in 2026: it is a "sleeping" gigantic robot that activates upon probe landing (something out of Mass Effect) /jk

...interestingly, they cannot make a focused image of this asteroid...I wonder why, maybe because it is very reflective and/or rapidly rotating?

[xhomerx10]

from reddit:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2021/12/28/nasa-is-set-to-explore-a-massive-metal-asteroid-called-psyche-thats-worth-way-more-than-our-global-economy/

maybe a surprise in 2026: it is a "sleeping" gigantic robot that activates upon probe landing (something out of Mass Effect) /jk

...interestingly, they cannot make a focused image of this asteroid...I wonder why, maybe because it is very reflective?

 OMG.

Don't look
up!

[Biodom]

huh?

Suddenly: Bob Saget dies in hotel

[Copetech]

from reddit:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2021/12/28/nasa-is-set-to-explore-a-massive-metal-asteroid-called-psyche-thats-worth-way-more-than-our-global-economy/

maybe a surprise in 2026: it is a "sleeping" gigantic robot that activates upon probe landing (something out of Mass Effect) /jk

...interestingly, they cannot make a focused image of this asteroid...I wonder why, maybe because it is very reflective?

 OMG.

Don't look
up!

On a global scale, which way is "UP?


OK, now same question but on a galactic scale??? Which way?