I suppose that each of us has our own tools (or ways) to try to figure out how BTC has a better purchasing price today than it is likely to have in the future.. so the value is going up and yeah accumulating as many as reasonable and feasible now is likely going to pay off into the future.
You probably have seen that I am a bit concerned about valuing my coins in terms of price tops because, and in order to account for likely ongoing volatility, I like to attempt to consider how the bottom is moving up with the passage of time. I am not sure if you and I end up at the same place, but I do want to personally error on the side of conservativism, and maybe your placing a future value of $1million causes you to NOT so much get worried about today's price since it is way below $1million, so you are still getting a bargain.. something like that which causes you to continue to appreciate the future value and your need to accumulate BTC at better prices....
I'm at work so will only answer that for now. You're much further along the line than me so I understand your POV, and when it will be time for me to sell BTC (or just spend, by then...) then of course looking at the tops isn't a good idea.
Even though I attempt to make my comments and observations in a way that should be generally applicable, I do understand that with the passage of time, there are ways that my own portfolios performance (and the way that I have built it) help to inform me about what I try to suggest as the better of practices, approaches and perspectives.
Accordingly, in late 2013, when I first started building my BTC portfolio - with the passage of the first year to three years, I used excel spreadsheets to created theories, hypothesizes and projections regarding where I expected my BTC to grow at various points in time into the future based on my own cashflow and injections into BTC and how I expected BTC to potentially perform, and of course, if there is a kind of constant tweaking along the way, then sometimes it is difficult to look at a current projection to remember the various ways that it had been tweaked over the years.
One of the advantages in looking back at the old excel versions to see where I had projected to be and where I ended up being.
For me, I have frequently projected quite conservatively, so since bitcoin had sort of mediocre performance in my first few years into it between 2014 and early 2017, by the time early 2017 came, the relatively conservative projections were not that far off, however the projections greatly under performed once BTC prices went shooting up.. and therefore, certain kinds of "better than expected" kind of tweaks needed to be made in order to account for "better than expected" outcomes.
Don't get me wrong, I was not investing in bitcoin ONLY for mediocre and conservative performance, so to some degree the "better than expected" outcomes were somewhat anticipated as a possible outcome that could happen, but such "better than expected" performance was not required in my own psychology or finances in order to "still be ok" in terms of why I had invested into BTC.... in other words, ok. with mediocre ongoing performance and higher levels of performance were merely "icing on the cake" (bonuses).
Part of the point that I am attempting to make here, is that some of the actual projections become way more concrete with the passage of time and with the actually realization of some of the investments into BTC and to see some performance along the way.
I know that our forum registration dates are very similar, but for sure I am not expecting that you would have necessarily been in the same position as me, so even if we might presume that you did a lot of wheel spinning in the first several years of your involvement into bitcoin and maybe you did not make as much progress in stacking sats (and holding onto sats) as you would have liked to have done.
Maybe we could still hypothesize a scenario of someone in a similar situation as you who started to realize and prioritize that some stat stacking would be helpful to have various hedges against some of the various inflated assets, properties and consumption goods, so in the past 5 years, through a combination of efforts such hypothetical person was able to both accumulate in the ball park of 10 BTC, plus to have accumulated some other assets to have working for him, too. Of course, making plans is much more concrete when you have the 10 BTC that are worth $415k at spot price, but you also might get a bit too presumptive about the value of those BTC and nervous about the volatility of those BTC by looking at their spot price value. So, part of the reason that I have found that using the 208-week moving average to be helpful in determining value.. (which yeah will ONLY put those same 10 BTC at a current valuation of about a $190k) that will not end up fluctuating as much in my calculations but also to likely continue to be going up in my evaluations of future value and to allow me more flexibility in terms of determining how much I might want to cash out (or shave off) at various points along the way (with the pressure also of not wanting to cash out very much BTC either).
So, even with
my projecting out BTC values based on the 208-week moving average, it could well take until mid-to-late 2025 for those 10 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status... and for sure we could tweak the numbers along the way to see if the 208-week moving average ends up keeping up with expectations, and maybe in the next 4 years we could keep building our BTC stash, so maybe by the time we get to 2025, we might have built our BTC stash up to 11 BTC or 12 BTC... and surely erroring on the side of conservativism with future projections, and less conservative if you know that you already have the BTC in your possession (absent ways that you could end up losing them, if you want to play around like that).
I think that part of my point is that the various projections should make more and more sense as long as you are continuing to build along the way and you are conservative in your presumptions, so that any kind of increase in value or even increase in the size of your stash ends up causing your expectations to be met sooner than you expected rather than you having to adjust the other way around.... so even if we take the example of your already having 10 BTC, is it fruitful to try to get up to 11 BTC or 12 BTC by 2025 or would it be a better use of your time and your money to invest in other directions.. Of course, personal choices, and of course, a lot of guys here believe that there is a lot of utility in investing in BTC as compared with other assets, but surely the purchase of an appropriately sized house would not necessarily be a bad investment, especially if you are going to be in that area anyhow.
Up to now and without having thought about it much my "ideal plan" would be to have at least one year, or better 2-3 years of fiat tucked away, to never sell/spend BTC when it's down. With the idea of living within reasonable means.
I do not tend to stock away that much fiat...
Of course, the more complicated your finances, income sources and expenses, the more cash you likely need to have available for further out.
And the closer the timeline - like 2-3 months, the more need that the cash/value should be easily accessible/liquid. Otherwise, there would need to be considerations regarding how quickly can you get the cash/asset to be liquid and what are the odds that some or all of the cash sources would disappear, so there may need to be some redundancies, but they might not need to be completely in cash (under your mattress).
I do tend to project my cashflows out 18 months to 24 months, and of course, the closer in time is projected out way more specifically, and the later projections do change from time to time, but merely because I am projecting out, that does not mean that I already have the cash in hand or that it is guaranteed, and for sure some folks have less certain sources of cashflows, so the projection should be conservative, including considering that some of the cashflows could dry up or some of the expenses could increase more than expected.... and yeah, in the end there are some judgement calls about how much to hold in various emergency funds or more easily liquidatable locations... whether earning yield or not might be another question... careful with some of that... by the way, if you had 18 months worth of potential cashflow in an emergency fund that was "earning yield" and if that location is risky and disappears, but then does so at such a time when you actually were going to need it, then you end up getting fucked.. because your emergency fund is not as secure as you thought it was.... I know.. I know.. I know.. all of us probably run some risk that funds that we need are not going to be available when we need them... and even the back-ups or the back-ups of the back-ups could end up running into similar vulnerabilities all at the same time.. when we need them.
It's also possible that by then there are reputable/regulated "crypto banks" where one could put part of ones' stash and get a good, regular fiat return on it. If fiat is still in use.
This is likely going to take a while to get some decent competition in this area.. I am not anxious to either be the guinea pig and I don't want to feel so desperate about having to get "yield" on my bitcoin..especially since so far bitcoin has returned a lot of price appreciation on its own.. just by holding it.. so historically (so far) there has not been a need for actual "yield" in order to profit considerably just by holding bitcoin... even if you had only been able to get 30% to 60% because "mistakes were made" your bitcoin still has performed quite well over the past 13 months to 8 years... just by holding them...as long as you have been in bitcoin for more than 13 months, you are considerably profitable.. with whatever you had into bitcoin at or before 13 months ago
(around December 15, 2020 Bitcoin prices crossed above $20k and have not dipped below that price again.. at least NOT so far, and many of us believe that those sub $20k BTC prices will never be seen again, even though they will be wished for and even projected for people who are likely out of touch with reality and/or don't really understand bitcoin...so part of my point is that there is a certain level of assurance (of course not 100%) that whatever BTC you got below $20k.. are never again to be reached prices.. so in that regard BTC appreciates in value.. even above and beyond fiat devaluation - which is another potential side-tangent).
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