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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26369651 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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February 05, 2022, 12:01:27 AM


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February 05, 2022, 12:15:32 AM

Memories.......


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX30xJN3eL4


Hmm interesting, news of new much better mining equipment and partnerships with Intel. Bitcoin price skyrockets goes up ~10%....probably just a coincidence. Who would ever think that the mining infrastructure defines the price (or a basis for).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/numiner-announces-next-generation-nm440-211000611.html

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-miner-discusses-intel-asic-chip

strawbs
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February 05, 2022, 12:21:48 AM

Memories.......


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX30xJN3eL4


Hmm interesting, news of new much better mining equipment and partnerships with Intel. Bitcoin price skyrockets goes up ~10%....probably just a coincidence. Who would ever think that the mining infrastructure defines the price (or a basis for).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/numiner-announces-next-generation-nm440-211000611.html

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-miner-discusses-intel-asic-chip



Oh please, don't start that again  Roll Eyes  Or you'll just receive once again exactly the same responses you had about 20 pages back.
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February 05, 2022, 12:25:14 AM

So Much TA on this page and I am loving it.

My Take:
If the Daily candle closes above the trend line, it will be a good sign otherwise we will still be playing in between the channel.

edit: Ignore the alert  Grin



What is this daily candle you talk about?
Bitcoin exchanges never close, there is no "daily candle" unless you mean 00:00 hour in your local time zone, and that would just be a random time.
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February 05, 2022, 12:26:56 AM

We really smashed through that resistance at $41K.  First bullish action the market has seen in a while and we appear to be breaking out of the downtrend on high volume.  If this turns out to be a continuing rally and not a head fake it might be a major buy signal for investment firms who have been waiting for this move up from $33K to be validated.  Folks who were selling in the $60K range would be wise to start buying back in if we stay above $41K for a day or two.  With possible clarification of tax regulation coming down the pipeline, once this mtgox cloud is done putting a shadow on the market it might be off to the races again.
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February 05, 2022, 12:27:22 AM
Last edit: February 05, 2022, 12:50:38 AM by PoolMinor

Memories.......


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX30xJN3eL4


Hmm interesting, news of new much better mining equipment and partnerships with Intel. Bitcoin price skyrockets goes up ~10%....probably just a coincidence. Who would ever think that the mining infrastructure defines the price (or a basis for).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/numiner-announces-next-generation-nm440-211000611.html

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-miner-discusses-intel-asic-chip



Oh please, don't start that again  Roll Eyes  Or you'll just receive once again exactly the same responses you had about 20 pages back.

Probably should just put me on ignore.

Not my fault that sometimes logic is more than thinking outside the box.

Edit:
$57k before March 15?
Krubster
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February 05, 2022, 12:27:44 AM

COVID found me too….

First time…. It took a long time ….

Get well soon, my Belgian brother.



This is me, who still have managed to avoid the flu

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February 05, 2022, 12:31:37 AM

Time for bears to admit defeat, grab what they can and hold on for the ride.

Nah, I'm getting the feeling that a longish bear period is ahead of us, unfortunately.

That didn't age well...  Grin Grin

Hehe, yeah, that wasn't my best prediction. Smiley

But in all honesty, a 3000-ish dollar rise is not much, I still think we are kind of bearish, I would hope I'm wrong but until we revisit 60000 and above I say bearish.
somac.
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February 05, 2022, 12:46:28 AM

An unexpected upwards movement tbh. As I've been saying for weeks now, on-chain is very bullish, STH (weak hands) have few coins left because there was never a mass FOMO buy from them to begin with (indicated by parabolic price action), and the Fed saying that they are all talk and will not voluntarily crash the global economy into a great depression.
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February 05, 2022, 12:47:09 AM

COVID found me too….

First time…. It took a long time ….

Still coughing up Flem myself but have felt good otherwise for the last week.

As has been said fluids and keep those sinuses clear!

GL Br0.

*Binge watch Reacher! Smiley

he just pull a gun on picard episode 2

it is decent show so far.

I'm on episode 7, a few things unrealistic but for tv shows its in the top tier.

Did 1 ,2 + 3 still watchable .
Arriemoller
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February 05, 2022, 12:48:37 AM

Well, who sold at the bottom?



This time, i proudly sold at the bottom  Cheesy
It wasn't panic selling, though. I sold about 0.009 BTC to buy a full frame DSLR camera body, traded in my old cropped Canon, paid some of the difference in cash, sold some corn from the "play stash" for it. I almost knew it will go up shortly after. The offer was just too good. Cam looks as new, only 8k shots fired, 6 months warranty.
Thanks, Bitcoin  Grin

In other news:
I finally also got some good chances to catch Omicron!
The school seatmate of one of my children got tested positive yesterday (PCR result came in today).
They also were rehearsing a little stage play, where my son is playing a hunter and his seatmate is playing a bear, and she has to roar at him (without a mask, close distance).
I'm curious, just waiting it out, antigen-testing my son every second day and let him use the carrageenan nasal spray as a precaution.
At least the classroom is closed and all the pupils will be in distance learning next week, which is the usual procedure when two pupils are PCR-tested postive within three days in the same classroom.
In the best (worst) case we have a positive child at home, his siblings going to school regularly. Happy spreadfest  Grin
(Wrote this in here instead of the other thread because it's not vaxx related)

Some interesting stats.
The text below is quoted from Dr Rusworths text. Original with full text and graphs is here. https://sebastianrushworth.com/2022/02/04/covid-officially-over-in-sweden/


"The Swedish government has decided to end all covid related restrictions from the 9th of February. Additionally, venues and events will no longer be able to demand proof of vaccination. To top it off, the public health agency is recommending that covid no longer officially be classed as a “threat to public health”. Sweden is the third Nordic country to end covid restrictions, following on the heels of Denmark and Norway.

The public health agency estimates that 500,000 Swedes were infected with covid-19 last week (which is twice the number of confirmed cases). At the same time, only 181 people died of/with the disease (possibly more “with” than “of”). That puts the present lethality of covid in the same ballpark as the common cold. As many people have long predicted, covid-19 has become the fifth “common cold” coronavirus disease.

I think it’s interesting to go back and look at how bad it actually was. Before we do, let’s remember that Sweden has taken a light touch throughout the pandemic. That means it serves as a useful “control” in terms of understanding what would have happened if a country didn’t impose lockdowns, close schools, and force everyone to wear masks.

 the best metric to look at is overall mortality. It is the only metric that cannot easily be manipulated.

What do we see?

Well, we see a gradually declining overall mortality over the thirty year period, from roughly 1,100 deaths per 100,000 during the early 1990’s down to an average of roughly 900 deaths per 100,000 during the last five years. This decrease is likely mostly due to the fact that life expectancy in Sweden has increased significantly over the thirty year period, from 78 in 1991 to 83 today.

Next we see an unusually low overall mortality in 2019. This made Sweden “ripe” for a worse than average year in 2020, just due to the simple fact that years with less than average mortality are usually followed by years with more than average mortality (because a year with less than average mortality means there are more very frail people on the verge of death at the beginning of the next year). We can see this in the graph above – when there is a big drop in mortality in one year, it is usually followed by a rise in mortality in the following year. So 2020 was always likely to have a little higher than average mortality.

Then we come to 2020, and we do see an effect of the pandemic (in combination with the expected slightly higher than average mortality), with an overall mortality that is roughly 945 per 100,000 people, as compared with the average for the preceding five years, which is 900 per 100,000 people. So, in 2020 there were 45 extra deaths per 100,000 people as compared with the average for the preceding five years, which represents roughly 4,600 people. What that means is that the pandemic, in combination with the fact that 2020 was following on a year with unusually low overall mortality, resulted in something like 4,600 extra deaths, which represents 0,04% of Sweden’s population.

What can we conclude?

Yes, there was a small bump in mortality in 2020 due to covid, but it was pretty damn small. I’m not saying covid isn’t serious for some segments of the population, but all claims that this was a hugely deadly pandemic on par with the Spanish flu are clearly massively overblown. That becomes particularly obvious when we move on and look at 2021. As is clear from the graph above, there was no excess mortality whatsoever in 2021. In fact, 2021 was the second least deadly year in Swedish history!

That is in spite of the fact that official statistics show an additional 6,000 deaths with/of covid in Sweden in 2021. Clearly most of those 6,000 were either deaths “with” rather than “of”, or the people who died of covid were for the most part so close to death that they would have died in 2021 anyway, even without covid.

 The Swedish government has officially declared the end of the pandemic now, but if you look at the overall mortality statistics, it really looks like the pandemic ended a year ago.

So, that is how bad covid was in Sweden, the country that never locked down, and that was widely derided as a “pariah state” during the early part of the pandemic. When we look at the overall mortality statistics, and see the number of people that actually died, it’s clear that Sweden was probably the country that reacted most sensibly of all to the pandemic, with measures that were largely proportionate to the size of the threat. The rest of the world instead went around swatting flies with sledge hammers.

One thing that is interesting to think about in light of this, is what the overall mortality data looks like in other countries. Since Sweden, which didn’t lock down, had only marginal excess mortality in 2020, and no excess mortality in 2021, it’s clear that covid-19 itself hasn’t done much damage. That means that any excess mortality beyond the little seen in Sweden in countries that did lock down cannot be due to the virus itself. It must due to something else. Since the one thing that has differed between Sweden and those other countries over the two year period is the absence vs presence of lockdowns, any such excess mortality can almost certainly be explained by lockdowns.

Let’s take the US as an example. Unlike Sweden, large parts of the US instituted draconian lockdowns. Did those lockdowns prevent any covid deaths? Well, If we just look at the crude numbers, we don’t see any reduction. According to official statistics, 0.27% of the US population has so far died of/with covid, compared with only 0.16% of the Swedish population – in spite of lockdowns, the US has had significantly more covid deaths than Sweden!

This is in line with the mass of evidence showing that lockdowns are ineffective. So, since we now know that lockdowns are ineffective at stopping the virus, we would expect that the US would see an effect of the pandemic on overall mortality that is similar to Sweden – i.e. a small increase in overall mortality is expected. If, on the other hand, we see a much larger increase in the US than we see in Sweden, then that increase is likely due to lockdowns. So, what do we see?

We see an increase in overall mortality in 2020 and 2021 that is significantly bigger than that seen in Sweden. In Sweden, the relative increase in overall mortality for 2020-2021, when compared with the preceding five years, is 1% (from an average of 900 deaths per 100,000 in 2015-2019 to an average of 912 deaths per 100,000 in 2020-2021).

In the US, the relative increase in overall mortality is 18%! (from 860 deaths per 100,000 in 2015-2019 to 1016 deaths per 100,000 in 2020-2021). That is an 18-fold greater increase in mortality during the two years of the pandemic in the US than in Sweden!

So, to sum up, the US has less than twice as many covid deaths as Sweden (As mentioned, 0.27% of the US population vs 0.16% of Sweden's population), but 18 times as many excess deaths! Clearly, that massive difference cannot be explained by the virus. It must be explained by something else. The only reasonable explanation, as far as I can see, is that it is due to the disastrous effect of lockdowns on public health"
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February 05, 2022, 12:50:33 AM

The SEC has just delayed their decision on whether GBTC can convert to a bitcoin ETF.
https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1489730031115030533

I wonder why didn't they turn it down like the others sport ETF's? Is it because Grayscale owns a substantial part of all bitcoins and hence the usual arguments about low liquidity, manipulation, etc. are irrelevant? Or may be they just want to get more time to prepare other idiotic arguments, because Grayscale threatened several times that it will sue SEC if they dissaprove their proposal?

I suspect it is the massive negative premium. Insiders want to load up on that, and when SEC approve Grayscale as the first spot ETF, the negative premium vanishes and insiders make a crap load of instant money. So when it does get approved expect a sell off when trade opens as these insiders will sell for their quick buck.
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February 05, 2022, 12:51:05 AM

COVID found me too….

First time…. It took a long time ….

Still coughing up Flem myself but have felt good otherwise for the last week.

As has been said fluids and keep those sinuses clear!

GL Br0.

*Binge watch Reacher! Smiley

he just pull a gun on picard episode 2

it is decent show so far.

I'm on episode 7, a few things unrealistic but for tv shows its in the top tier.

Did 1 ,2 + 3 still watchable .

Just finished.

A few things bothered me but not going to drop any spoilers.

Basically same old hollwood crap that they seem to have to do in every friggin show, but nothing with the basic storyline itself...mostly. Smiley


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February 05, 2022, 12:58:08 AM

COVID found me too….

First time…. It took a long time ….

Take two TREO and sleep it out.

Get well soon!
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February 05, 2022, 01:00:32 AM
Merited by PoolMinor (4)

Memories.......


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX30xJN3eL4


Hmm interesting, news of new much better mining equipment and partnerships with Intel. Bitcoin price skyrockets goes up ~10%....probably just a coincidence. Who would ever think that the mining infrastructure defines the price (or a basis for).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/numiner-announces-next-generation-nm440-211000611.html

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-miner-discusses-intel-asic-chip



Oh please, don't start that again  Roll Eyes  Or you'll just receive once again exactly the same responses you had about 20 pages back.

Probably should just put me on ignore.

Not my fault that sometimes logic is more than thinking outside the box.

Well I am not against you.  And on this thread we would be in the minority.

If I also were to explain that eth could flip btc this thread would likely want to kill me.  But if you look at btc mining growth vs eth mining growth it is beginning to happen already.

btc gear has increased by a factor of 1.43 to 1  jan 1 2021 to feb 1 2022
eth gear has increased by a factor of 3.30 to 1 jan 1 2021 to feb 1 2022

btc price has increased by a factor of 1.43 to 1  dec 31 2020 to feb 4 2022
eth price has increased by a factor of 4.11 to 1 jan 1 2021 to feb 4 2022

the biggest factors are LN for btc is POS
and will eth go full POS

and of course eth is fully centralized
while btc is partially centralized.

basically this is me saying franky1 and poolminor  have some points on value of btc


but if you look at Facebook the pe is 16 to 1
and if you look at Tesla the pe is 187 to 1

so what do any of us know>

btc = 41.5K plus baby
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February 05, 2022, 01:01:21 AM


Explanation
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February 05, 2022, 01:15:05 AM

COVID found me too….

First time…. It took a long time ….

Take care Dude.

I still had an occasional cough a few weeks later but have been much better the last few days.
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February 05, 2022, 01:23:28 AM

Last year was something else. Besides reaching FU-status according to JJG's measurements, I became a first time dad. Pretty awesome.

In terms of measuring from the 200/208-week moving average, the past 12 months have been quite great with right around 127% appreciation in where that 200/208-week moving average is measured.. largely going from about $8,630 to $19,500 if we are measuring from February 4.

You can look at specific dates, here:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Of course we are still around 2x higher than the 200/208-week moving average as I type this post with spot BTC prices in the supra $41k arena... so that helps to continue to have that ongoing drag UPwardly on the 200/208-week moving average price.

One thing remains is some uncertainty regarding how long it might take for the BTC spot price to start to get close to the 200/208-week moving average - but if we are hovering anywhere from at least 20% to 100% higher than the 200/208-week moving average we should be able to continue to feel some level of confidence that our wealth is continuing to appreciate in value - and for sure, also considerations if we also want to draw upon our BTC, we can measure limitations of how much we want to draw based on how far above the 200/208-week moving average the price might be. 

So for example, if I were to be living off my BTC, and I were to be clearly above fuck you status, then since the BTC spot price is more than 100% higher than the 200/208-week moving average, then I could cash out 10% of my stash based on a $19,500 valuation for the whole year if I might feel that I would feel more comfortable to withdraw for a whole year... so if were to hold 110 BTC, then I could cash out $214.5k for the year... and if I did so at spot price of $41,800, that would be around 5.13 BTC - or I could just choose to cash out smaller amounts each quarter, and just make sure that the spot price is sufficiently higher than the 200/208 week moving average each time that I cash out.. just for comfort purposes, but surely there would be flexibility (personal discretion) when using such a measure to figure out both how much to cash out and what increments.. even though I believe that most of us who have been into BTC for a sufficiently long period of time, we do not really want to time any of our cashing out of BTC when the BTC price is on a downtrend or seeming to be anywhere close to the 200/208 week moving average, so we might try to time any of our cashing outs while the BTC price is going up and in various lump periods (whether cashing out for a quarter, a half year, a year or even a couple of years - though there might be some hesitancy to hold that much cash - even though we know that BTC down periods can last a couple of years too.. so it is not always easy to time how much to cash out or how much cash we might want to keep on hand). 

So, if we cash out the amount that we need when the BTC price is quite a bit higher than the 200/208-week moving average then we might well get some comfort in that, and maybe also when the BTC price is moving up.. and that is to the extent that we feel any kind of preference for cashing out or just waiting it out.. and again none of us would not want to be caught without having any cash for the long periods that BTC can sometimes be in down periods.. including remembering that BTC spot price was quite close to the 200-week moving average for almost the whole of 2015... so those kinds of times of long periods of down could end up happening again and so when we get into such BTC liquidation stage, it is better to cash out some amount of value for insurance when the BTC price is going up or when it is at several levels higher than the 200/208 week moving average rather than when the BTC spot price is anywhere close to the 200/208-week moving average.   

Wondering if anyone can help with a little dilemma I have at the moment....

A friend has organised a fantasy rugby league for the upcoming Six Nations rugby tournament (basically, the annual European international rugby tournament). I really can't be bothered spending my time on this (especially when so many interesting things are happening in bitcoinlandia; and when I'm not really very interested in rugby).

So, does anyone know of any websites where others post their suggested teams, so that I can simply copy their suggested team picks. I don't want to let my buddies down, especially since we haven't really met up for so long now, due to covid lockdowns. But I also don't have the time (or inclination) to spend hours on this.

I need a sneaky quick fix! Any ideas???

I like that strawbs.. you got your priorities straight.  Hopefully they won't grill you about your picks, and of course, if you are getting together, you can just say you picked your team members kind of randomly anyhow, and you don't really know what you are doing.. and friends will frequently accept those kinds of explanations.... and if you end up scoring well (winning) then just explain that it was the luck of the draw.  I am not knowledgable on the actual topic of who's who in rugby, either.. and you are one step in front of me, by getting invited.

Spencer Schiff
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My dad right now:

https://twitter.com/SpencerKSchiff/status/1489653121328553994

I am surprised that we have not been getting more cockiness from the goldbugs, and for sure, they were a bit cocky around the March 2020 because gold did have a short period in which it was gaining relative to bitcoin, even though to put the matter into a larger context, that March 2020 period did not last long.. and even if we have had decently good gold performance to BTC in the past year or two, many gold bugs are realizing that the writing is on the wall in terms of bitcoin continuing to eat gold's lunch... and I found the below chart/website, you can click on various comparisons of bitcoin to gold in various increments as small as 12 hours or as long as the past 10 years.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=XAU&view=10Y

So for example you will see that bitcoin was surely just a fraction of an ounce of gold until about early 2017 when it got up to bitcoin/ounce of gold parity.. but then a couple of times it has gotten up to 37 ounces.. even though recently BTC prices dipping down in to the 20 ounces per bitcoin range.. but could well be moving back up.. and surely we are likely going to be seeing bitcoin to amount to 100s of ounces and likely 10s of thousands of ounces, even though it will likely take longer for those higher numbers to play out.
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February 05, 2022, 01:29:44 AM

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has invested into BTC

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1489772282947985408
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February 05, 2022, 01:58:35 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

Ascending Triangle on BTC 4H Timeframe.
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