@jjg...you keep posting about "my 20BTC" and I keep telling you that it is a wrong number, but you keep going back like a stubborn sob you are.
Don't guess, apart from telling you that it is wrong, I am not revealing anything.
Apart from locking you into a kind of whimpy style of lump sum investing and a denigrator of DCA (which you have done both of those things)... you should appreciate my use of such hypothetical.
Let's see would some other hypothetical work better? Why not just keep it vague, and you even used such hypothetical ur lil selfie (yeah, you did not call the guy Biodom.. but I don't see anything wrong with calling him Biodom because he does seem to fit several aspects of philosophies that you have presented.. even though it does seem to me that from time to time, you do shift in your philosophies of the moment, too).
So one hypothetical is the one that I used for the Biodom that bought 20 BTC in 2015 and then just rested on his laurels.. waiting for $10million dollar bitcoin in order to feel that he has sufficiently reached fuck you status... actually there was one point that you had said that you a $10 million total value would be enough for fuck you status but then another point that you raised it to $20 million and then other points that you had said that much more would be needed... so sure, blame me for being somewhat confused about how much might be needed from your perspective regarding reaching entry-level fuck you status.
In contrast to your presentation of a lumpsum investor of 20 BTC, I had presented another kind of somewhat less whimpy investor who would would have lump sum invested to get 20 BTC in 2015, but largely would have continued to DCA invest through the subsequent years and who could have more than doubled his/her BTC investment quantity by continuing to invest around $100 per week DCA between 2015 and currently.
This one shows adding more than another 32 BTC by investing $100 per week over the past 7 years.Of course, with some of my ongoing arguments about the benefits of DCA'ing and NOT just resting on your laurels with an early lump sum, you have asserted that you have not been just resting on your laurels with you early lump summing, and you have suggested that you have been doing things along the way to continue to buy on the dip, for example...
So you have been striving to criticize that buying on the dip is better than DCA'ing and presuming that people should be smart enough to figure out which way the BTC price is going in order to be able to buy on the dip.. .which sounds like a whole bunch of bullshit to me, and I will continue to assert that it is way better to be DCA'ing because we cannot be presuming that we know when a dip is going to be over... sure there is nothing wrong with maintaining some staggered abilities to buy at various price points down the ladder.. just in case the BTC price dips, but I personally have continued to advocate NOT to be screwing around too much with those predictions (by making sure that you are not spending too much time waiting).. and to continue to regularly buy..
Sure, it is possible that buying on dips could have beaten a pure DCA strategy - but that is surely not obvious unless you are looking at BTC price performance after the fact rather than considering the matter while you are going through with it. I will continue to argue that even when there are continued periods down BTC prices, there are never any assurances that there is going to be down before up.. even though any of us who are in BTC accumulation stages might still attempt to prepare by holding onto some fiat to be able to buy in case the price goes down more, we might also have some part of our budget that just buys anyway.. just in case the down before up does not happen.
Regarding accumulation: my accumulation works much better than yours since it occurs via mining and the last 3 years were good (basically, I am getting btc at a discount comparing to you).
I am not competing with you.
Now you are wanting to add a "mining" mix to the topic? You want to just complicate matters?
It does seem that mining has been pretty good in the last couple of years... but surely mining is not for everyone, yet I am not going to discourage people from getting into mining if they are interested in those kinds of aspects about bitcoin... and for sure and for a variety of reasons involving various kinds of commitments and potential capital intensitivity (including losing mobility), I would not consider mining as any kind of shoe-in strategy that fits with many folks.. especially if we are considering options for normies who likely have a variety of situations going on in their lives regarding both where they are at and where they might be considering themselves to want to be able to go with whatever level of investment that they are considering making into bitcoin...
One of the first things is to get the fuck off zero.. and surely I am recommending starting out considering an allocation of anywhere between 1% to 25%, and of course, there is a lot of individual variation in that too.. in terms of how to get from 0% to whatever allocation that any newbie normie might consider sufficiently appropriate for his/her financial and psychological circumstances.
Of course, normie newbies have all kinds of considerations, and of course, we do not ONLY talk about normie newbies in these here parts, but there can be some variants in member situations who have been in bitcoin for less than a cycle, or for one or two cycles, which seems to be the case with you, me and several others... yeah, quite a bit of variation.. and surely even a pretty good number of us who have been in bitcoin for longer, but there still is likely a decent amount of variation in how we might consider if we are still in BTC accumulation stages, maintenance or liquidation stages... or some variation of those.. and moving between them, perhaps?
Finally, get this salient point into your head and stop talking about "neglecting the uppity" and DCAing (with respect to myself, not the topic overall).
Huh? lots of people neglect to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP... that's been quite the common theme in these here parts, whether you identify such theme or not... and whether something like your previous conversations are used as examples or not.
For sure, you have regularly denigrated the value of various aspects of DCA investing.. so surely I consider that those kinds of battling of the value of DCA'ing needing to be done. You sometimes also seem to want to project that either the BTC price is going down or that it is going to be staying within a narrow price range (such as between $30k and $60k for the whole calendar year), and those kinds of narratives should be battled too.. even though for sure something like what you are saying could end up happening, but it is surely not good for people (especially those who might be in their earlier stages of BTC accumulation) to put too much weight on such seemingly pie in the sky scenarios by thinking that they have the whole year (for example) to prepare their lil selfies for UP, when they might or they might not have that much time... also needing to account for their own circumstances, including getting started and getting off of zero, if that might be the case.... and DCA seems a way better starting approach to get off zero rather than trying to strategize some grand entry point that may or may not happen.. and also we cannot really be sure about when the bottom is in and/or when the sales prices are over (if they happen to be sales prices? not sure) .. and we especially cannot be sure that our bullrun is over, which ongoingly you have seemed to want to continue to put pretty high odds to the bullrun being over for this cycle, too.... and yeah, you might be right.. but there seem to be pretty decently high odds that you might not be right, too.
... so seems ongoingly relevant to me to be talking about the need to prepare for UP.. and ways to attempt to accomplish that preparation for up in reasonable ways that individuals can continue to attempt to tailor to their own financial and psychological circumstances, and DCA remains amongst the strongest of such starting preparation tools.. and even works well for guys/gals who have been in the BTC space for a long time and who might not be as prepared for UP as they think that they are.. .
For example, it might well be better to lump sum in and get that 0.21 BTC right away and then to later attempt to DCA to get another 0.21 BTC over the coming years... and for sure, not everyone is going to even be in any kind of a position to lump sum.. so they just might have to start out with DCAing and figure out if they can be as aggressive as $100 per week.. or does their individual circumstances restrict them to some more prudent approach, such as $10 per week... You likely realize that over the years, many of us had been suggesting that $10 per week might be enough just to get guys off of zero... but over the years (and maybe especially after March 2020 specifically), there may be sufficient kinds of factual /logical justifications to show that guys should be attempting to get their base DCA'ing up to $100 per week rather than $10 per week as their starting off amount.. even though for sure, we know that some folks will just not be in a position to even be able to afford that as much as $100 per week.. ..
Also, we might well presume (maybe not always correctly?) that some one who has already been in BTC for a couple of years (or longer), for example, may well have already gotten to a certain BTC accumulation threshold, so the ongoing DCA'ing from here on out would just be meant to continue to build upon whatever BTC accumulation base that they have already established.... Of course, the larger the base of BTC that anyone has accumulated will give more cushion and options, yet the same questions might exist regarding how aggressive that any such person might be able to afford to be (depending on his/her accumulation circumstances and also depending on his/her financial and psychological circumstances)? Each person has to weigh for himself/herself whether they reasonably cab get up to $100 per week or are their financial and psychological circumstances only going to prudently allow them to DCA at some level like $10 per week - until getting more comfortable? Again, DCA'ing seems to be a way better entry point rather that attempting to be too smart about the whole matter and believing that some kind of down before up is even a reasonably way of considering rather than just getting started.
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