Bitcoiners (or even cryptards) that really cling to this notion of bitcoin as an "investment" have the wrong mindset.
Instead when they think of bitcoin, it should be of putting money in their "bank".
That way, the idea of cashing out or liquidating at some future point becomes completely meaningless, and time becomes inconsequential.
"Yeah, I'm putting money in my bank today, with the plan of taking it all out after the next 4 years."
"I need to know when to liquidate my bank account at the next top."
"When do I sell all in my bank account?"
See? Why would you do that? Makes no sense.
Sounds like making various distinctions without a difference.
Bitcoin can surely be thought of as an investment... and a superior way to hold your value.
However since bitcoin has tended to be volatile as fuck, you gotta be careful in terms of putting too much of your value into it... you have to make sure that you can manage your cashflow and expenses which surely is going to vary from person to person... and not everyone is going to have a lot of spare cashflow that they can invest or save unless s/he has his/her shit together... and has figured out ways to live within his/her means.. and not too have too much drama in terms of not having a variety of ways to spend in the event that emergency financial situations come.... which is more likely if any of us is not keeping value in a variety of places (and even have built up enough surplus value) to be able to have options in the case that cash is needed... to be able to eat, keep a roof over our heads (including various utility bills), transportation, taxes, socializing expenses, and other expenses that normal people have.
I don't think what I wrote disagrees with anything you say. It's a riff on the increasing futility of analysis for trading, particularly in the short term. Though it may have applicability to some longer term factors too as once they become known and recognized. For example, halving effects become increasingly well known and compensated for and the nature of Bitcoin's bubble mean that fewer people now fall for the FOMO so the boom is less boomy and the bust less miserable.
We seem way too early in our adoption level (still likely less than 1% of the world's population) to be proclaiming that bitcoin is becoming mature enough to no longer have severe FOMO episodes.
Of course, growing market cap does cause bitcoin to be way more difficult to accomplish 100x runs in a year.. and for sure we know that BTC already had a few 100x runs that would could go back and measure.
So, I am tentatively considering that Bitcoin's max market cap is something like 1,000x gold's market cap, which would be about 10,000x from today, and which would be around $1 quadrillion dollars. However, I will qualify my statement by acknowledging and recognizing that certain kinds of technological innovations (and bitcoin and various supporting projects that build around it) are likely going to contribute towards the increasing of potential values beyond $1quadrillion (even talking in the value of today's dollars and not referring to some future inflation that is inevitable with the dollar and other fiats).
Meantime we should be warming up the pictures of trains. I think we have seen the bottom last month.....
That is a nice bottom. I mean the sub 30k bottom we had....
Good joke I would shower you in merit if I had some
Huh? This time around we ONLY got down to $32,951.. so there was no sub $30k bottom.... this time around.
Of course, in May/June/July we had sub $30k.. but that's becoming old news quite soon.. and it seems that if we are able to get above $46k for maybe a couple of days.. then that may well be enough to proclaim that the "bottom is in" - even though it does seem that quite a few members are coming over to the side of the bottom is already "in" under current conditions, and they may well be correct about that?
For sure, we seem to have a decent amount of UPpity momentum that makes it more difficult to reverse if the momentum starts to gain staying power.. even though with our having have had touched upon $44,524 within the past couple of hours (and looks like wanting to revisit getting above that price level, as I type) we are still about 35% within reach of our current $32,951 bottom from January 24.
I have some difficulties imagining BTC prices going straight above $50k without some kind of meaningful correction along the way; however, many of us know that bitcoin can end up getting into a kind of punishment mode (which means going up without correction and to punish those who either waited to buy BTC, bet against BTC or failed/refused to adequately prepare for UP).. and surely, it seems that conditions could be fairly ripe for the happening of such a punishment mode.. where a lot of folks had got caught up into beliefs about down scenarios (or down before UP), giving up on BTC going up, failing/refusing to adequately prepare for UP, and also starting to not only increase their shorts but to continue to place new shorts as the BTC price goes up.. so yeah.. these ways of thinking about bitcoin and these kinds of behaviors in managing bitcoin holding (including trading) can contribute towards providing ongoing UPpity fuel... seems to me... seems to me... no one likes the snot-nosed 14-year old brat getting rich too quickly, and several of those 14-year olds have already been shaken out.
By the way, I know quite a few of us regular WO members have been fantasizing about a $10k + daily green candle, and it would be nice to get one at this time..and it would not even need to come exactly on the daily.. even though it would be more clear to see it that way.. and such a thing, at this time, would surely reck quite a few fence-sitters, those who have failed/refused to adequately prepare themselves for UP
(should I mention any names here?), bitcoin naysayers (and hopefully shitcoin pumpeners, too).
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