Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DaRude]

To secure their livelihoods we have no choice but to declare war including the use of nuclear weapons on those cities.

I think you mean to commit a suicide... nuking the West won't un-collapse the ruble, it will just turn Russia and most of the world into a radioactive dump.

Russians are reasonably smart, they will eventually figure out that the best way to fix this is to get rid of the Kremlin clown, it's just taking them a minute.

Right, nice, so going all in on a hope that their total financial collapse would divide Russians instead of uniting them. Where do you put the odds at?

[ImThour]

5 PM UTC Update

Bitcoin Average RSI is 48 ~ Neutral
Current Price: $39,100


Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

To secure their livelihoods we have no choice but to declare war including the use of nuclear weapons on those cities.

I think you mean to commit a suicide... nuking the West won't un-collapse the ruble, it will just turn Russia and most of the world into a radioactive dump.

Russians are reasonably smart, they will eventually figure out that the best way to fix this is to get rid of the Kremlin clown, it's just taking them a minute.

Putin is 69 years old.

The odds of an American 69 year old  male dying in his 69th year are about 75 to 1

Since Russia has a higher death rate the odds of a Russian 69 year old picked at random dying in his 69th year are about 72 to 1.

Since

A) I do not know Putin's health
B) I do not know anyone plotting for him or against him

I will peg the odds of him dying in his 69th year of life as 69 to 1 (why not as 69 is a good number).
It is pretty harsh that thousands of deaths will happen if a 69 to 1 shot does not come in.
To all of us lets be hopeful for that 69 to 1 shot comes in or Putin realizes he should do a 100% turnaround.




Now below is a cool outcome which would baffle everyone.

If Putin fully switch and did a 100% about face it would be a brilliant move on his part as the entire world would be baffled by the move.

So Mr Putin or I guess President Putin how about an about face?

To me if he completely changed tactics no one would ever know what the fuck he is up to.

[Mariah20]

A bit unclear who they are going to fire them at though.

As soon the nuclear missile will be fired, the same second bitcoin will reach the all time high. If somehow, there is no more war, bitcoin still move to all time high from here.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm the only one promoting peace at the moment, didn't get a single person in here to agree about that either (so far).

I am not going to proclaim to really know what is going on, even though I have heard that both that Putin was the aggressor, and I also heard that Putin had the right to go into Ukraine because there had been infringement upon the security cushion of his country.

The evidence does seem to favor that Putin has been going in and taking over various places, so how does anyone advocate for peace if that kind of conduct keeps happening.  I think that part of the fear would be that if you just give up and allow him to do what he wants (such as taking over Ukraine), he is not going to stop there, right?...

We could say, from here on out, we want peace, yet even if we take this to a personal level, we could be kumbaya in our regular lives, but if people figure out that you are not going to fight, there are people who are going to take advantage of that... peace is not an easy thing to achieve because there are a lot of injustices in the world and even perceptions of injustices, so in that regard, sometimes the "have nots" are going to perceive that it is NOT to their advantage to play by the rules... and in that regard, they are going to perceive that it is to their advantage to use NON-peaceful tactics.. whether talking at the individual level or extrapolating out at larger levels whether institutions or governments.

People do not even necessarily agree about aspects of the new world order or too much coordination between governments because there are thoughts that rules should be establish moreso on a local level... so in that regard, there can be pretty large differences of opinion regarding what the rules should be and in that same regard, some folks are not going to concede to peaceful means in giving way to which rules dominate.. so in that regard, do we just proclaim that ONLY peaceful means are acceptable and the peaceful proponents are likely going to end up getting beat up and bullied by those who do not believe in playing under those peaceful proponent rules (except maybe merely to feign their tactics)...

TDLR: Lovey dovey goals of peace are likely easier said than done.. and you may well get fucked if you do not prepare for more aggressive tactics from opponents who might be wanting to gain value by other than peaceful means.  In other words, probably the overwhelming majority already agree that peace might be the end-goal, but might not consider peace as a realistic way of approaching what is perceived as a bully on the other side.. and perhaps both sides perceive the other side as the bully/instigator/aggressor...  

Well, time to start activating the nuclear war plan. Oi. Between "Rat packs in the Capitol", Autarky government, and of course global pandemic I'm running low on new scenarios.

Alien invasion anyone?

For all of us to consider none of us are getting out of this world 🌍 alive. We all exit via death.

So rather then fight and hurt why not party 🎉 and love.

An idea to consider.

Oh gawd...

Same response to you as the one I made above.

Not sure why we have such detachment from reality.. and guys proclaiming that it should be like this blah blah blah kumbaya.. while ignoring the actual current dynamics... don't even need to blame one side or another to find that there is a bit of a pickle to just get from the current state to blanket statements of a preferred state of lovey-dovey.

[Richy_T]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say they're all assholes.

[modrobert]

A bit unclear who they are going to fire them at though.

As soon the nuclear missile will be fired, the same second bitcoin will reach the all time high. If somehow, there is no more war, bitcoin still move to all time high from here.

I posted this before, but reminder for those who thinks nuclear war can be won:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

Without internet, no decentralized currency will work, that includes Bitcoin.

[bitcoinPsycho]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say they're all assholes.

[suchmoon]

Right, nice, so going all in on a hope that their total financial collapse would divide Russians instead of uniting them. Where do you put the odds at?

Quite the contrary, uniting against Putin and his cronies is a better outcome for everyone involved. The odds of that are probably higher than the other way round, because the lies from Kremlin are already outrageous and will have to get even more blatant if they try to keep the lid on it.

Of course Soviets were able to sustain the lying for 70 years but they didn't have the intertubes.

[FIFA worldcup]

https://twitter.com/Dennis_Porter_/status/1497372581116055553


Bitcoin BTC can't be blocked.

[DaRude]

Right, nice, so going all in on a hope that their total financial collapse would divide Russians instead of uniting them. Where do you put the odds at?

Quite the contrary, uniting against Putin and his cronies is a better outcome for everyone involved. The odds of that are probably higher than the other way round, because the lies from Kremlin are already outrageous and will have to get even more blatant if they try to keep the lid on it.

Of course Soviets were able to sustain the lying for 70 years but they didn't have the intertubes.

Ok so we got the odds, now on to figuring out the prize. Upside is easy, Putin is toppled Russia is a shithole. But downside is...nuclear war? The best our diplomacy can come up with is lets use a nuclear financial option on a 69yr Putin, and hope really hard he doesn't take it as a declaration of war as he said he would?

[modrobert]

After asking around among my friends, I'm the only one promoting peace at the moment, didn't get a single person in here to agree about that either (so far).

I am not going to proclaim to really know what is going on, even though I have heard that both that Putin was the aggressor, and I also heard that Putin had the right to go into Ukraine because there had been infringement upon the security cushion of his country.

The evidence does seem to favor that Putin has been going in and taking over various places, so how does anyone advocate for peace if that kind of conduct keeps happening.  I think that part of the fear would be that if you just give up and allow him to do what he wants (such as taking over Ukraine), he is not going to stop there, right?...

We could say, from here on out, we want peace, yet even if we take this to a personal level, we could be kumbaya in our regular lives, but if people figure out that you are not going to fight, there are people who are going to take advantage of that... peace is not an easy thing to achieve because there are a lot of injustices in the world and even perceptions of injustices, so in that regard, sometimes the "have nots" are going to perceive that it is NOT to their advantage to play by the rules... and in that regard, they are going to perceive that it is to their advantage to use NON-peaceful tactics.. whether talking at the individual level or extrapolating out at larger levels whether institutions or governments.

People do not even necessarily agree about aspects of the new world order or too much coordination between governments because there are thoughts that rules should be establish moreso on a local level... so in that regard, there can be pretty large differences of opinion regarding what the rules should be and in that same regard, some folks are not going to concede to peaceful means in giving way to which rules dominate.. so in that regard, do we just proclaim that ONLY peaceful means are acceptable and the peaceful proponents are likely going to end up getting beat up and bullied by those who do not believe in playing under those peaceful proponent rules (except maybe merely to feign their tactics)...

TDLR: Lovey dovey goals of peace are likely easier said than done.. and you may well get fucked if you do not prepare for more aggressive tactics from opponents who might be wanting to gain value by other than peaceful means.  In other words, probably the overwhelming majority already agree that peace might be the end-goal, but might not consider peace as a realistic way of approaching what is perceived as a bully on the other side.. and perhaps both sides perceive the other side as the bully/instigator/aggressor...  

Interesting points, and from what I gather you prefer peace over war (at least as the end goal).

Peace usually starts with ceasefire, then negotiations, and finally compromise, that's pretty much it.

With an objective mainstream media who cared about human life we would read news about every attempt to negotiate a way out of the war, there would be priority on peaceful means to end it, instead we have a bloodthirsty corporate sponsored media which fuels the fire by posting news about war heroes, old ladies learning how to use an ak47, news about sending weapons with a super positive spin, encouraging aggression at every chance possible, eventually people reading this shit start doing the same thing.

[bitebits]

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1497948588818710530

Above data combined with 3 sats/byte clearing in the next block, you know where we are heading: UP!

[Biodom]

One interesting conclusion from this is that fiat money really has no value if someone can switch your money/assets off any time they want (even with justification).
You can breathe air and drink water that you have around you, but you cannot use money, which is an essential life commodity.
Interestingly, when on a gold standard, gold was universal currency, even for enemies.
Not sure what to make of it, but it is now clear that China realistically has no money (apart from their gold reserves, probably).
I am not prepared to say that bitcoin is such currency yet, maybe not due to low (currently) acceptance.

[suchmoon]

Ok so we got the odds, now on to figuring out the prize. Upside is easy, Putin is toppled Russia is a shithole. But downside is...nuclear war? The best our diplomacy can come up with is lets use a nuclear financial option on a 69yr Putin, and hope really hard he doesn't take it as a declaration of war as he said he would?

I wasn't talking about the nuke odds, only about the odds of uniting for or against Putin if the situation in Russia gets really dire.

As we've seen recently and not just recently, things Putin says have little to do with reality. He may launch or not launch the nukes for any reason or no reason at all. Trying to appease him, or to guess what he'll do next - doesn't work.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DaRude]

Ok so we got the odds, now on to figuring out the prize. Upside is easy, Putin is toppled Russia is a shithole. But downside is...nuclear war? The best our diplomacy can come up with is lets use a nuclear financial option on a 69yr Putin, and hope really hard he doesn't take it as a declaration of war as he said he would?

I wasn't talking about the nuke odds, only about the odds of uniting for or against Putin if the situation in Russia gets really dire.

As we've seen recently and not just recently, things Putin says have little to do with reality. He may launch or not launch the nukes for any reason or no reason at all. Trying to appease him, or to guess what he'll do next - doesn't work.

And using a last resort nuclear financial option has a lot to do with reality? Logic being taking someones money and bringing financial collapse is not a declaration of war? Kinda weak if that's the best we're playing with

[PrivacyG]

As we've seen recently and not just recently, things Putin says have little to do with reality. He may launch or not launch the nukes for any reason or no reason at all. Trying to appease him, or to guess what he'll do next - doesn't work.

I agree.  You can simply not try to predict what an unpredictable leader will do.  Putin has already taken numerous unpredictable actions and there is no way we or anyone besides his own brain and closest people will know what he is planning to do.  Take Finland for example.  He already threatened their contemplation of joining NATO so joining it may trigger his craziness.  On the other hand, Ukraine did not join NATO and now it is being conquered.  Maybe not joining NATO is exactly what he wants to fulfill his plans.

This is wild and I feel like everyone is about to lose control over things soon.  If Russia condemns and threatens any decision the rest of the world makes and the rest of the world keeps trying to predict what he is thinking and tries to find the best action for the best outcome, there will be a constant fear of the Russians no matter what we do.  By not taking precaution we risk 'military operations', and by taking precaution we risk a global war.

Fuck '20s!  This was such a crappy intro of a decade most of us expected to go so much less worse than it did.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[lightfoot]

Doomsday clock moves to one min to midnight, EU starts a meeting on whether they can hold the funds at the direct risk of a nuclear war at T- 7days. With every passing day price of ammo, guns, gold, bitcoin skyrockets, and all of the currencies collapse. Welcome to Madmax 2022

Madman playing chicken with everyone's lives, seeing who blinks first. Thats where millions years of evolution got us.

At that point you move into more familiar territory in terms of planning. This is where you use your intel to see what missiles may actually work and make appropriate decisions based on that.