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I clearly understood your point, just wanted to keep my point as well. The point is I am not looking for any other asset for my investments in near future except BTC.
Long term, I am bullish and there is no point for not being bullish on the asset of the century.
I know people don't really like most of the TA, that's why I have tried to keep a balance of On-Chain Data to support my narrative.
However, there is this chart I want everyone to have a look.
When we entered the accumulation phase in 2021, BTC was making Lower Lows and eventually break out to make a new ATH.
This time, we are making Higher Lows with not a very strong momentum behind the moves and that is not good for the price.
I doubt that regular members here are hostile to TA for the mere sake of it - but for sure there can be some irritations when the TA seems to be seeking a down outcome - so for sure many of us are more aggravated by down projections that are seeming to ascribe too much probability to such down scenarios having to happen.. and you have been doing that for quite a long time, even though you do weave in some seemingly neutral and bullish posts from time to time - which does not necessarily forgive you from some of your earlier outrageous DOWNity calls.
I understand that even I do not necessarily back up what I am saying very well - even when I might be irritated by some posts that might seem to provide fuel for newbies to fail/refuse to take sufficient actions to prepare themselves for UP. It is not easy to be buying on a regular basis.
I don't mind attempting to present several hypotheticals in order to attempt to illustrate some of my points, and of course, it seems to me that if guys (and gal) are presented with such information then of course, they are able to more informatively choose their own level of participation and whether they might tweak what they are doing to prepare for up.
Hypotheticals are frequently good, and even using some kind of variation of your own timeline in bitcoin can be helpful in order to attempt to figure out various ways that someone who has been into bitcoin for a couple of years might consider this whole bitcoin accumulation matter.
So of course we can look back two years, and figure out that a person who went balls to the walls in March/April 2020 in terms of putting all his value into bitcoin (including using debt to invest in bitcoin) would have been sitting quite pretty right now, even if had cashed out some value to pay off debt along the way at various higher price points. But the world does not tend to work like that. We do not necessarily know what is going to happen, so we cannot project out what we should have done based on our knowledge of what actually ended up happening... we just have to attempt to best approximate what some kind of reasonable hypothetical person might have done... and we can even skew the hypothetical person in various ways to attempt to make points about what might be good strategies, even if they are likely not perfect strategies, because it is not going to be very common that we really can know the bottoms or tops or to time our buys at the bottom or our sales at the top (and I am not personally even recommending that any newbies fuck around with sales on the way up - and that might be one of my ongoing tension with what you seem to be pushing, ImThour).
So I am going to describe two hypothetical persons who found out about bitcoin for about two years. Hypothetical one is skeptical about DCA investing in bitcoin and is trying to time dips, and hypothetical 2 is DCAing.
Both has a hypothetical lump sum investment budget of $6k that could have been put into bitcoin starting from two years ago, and then an extra cashflow of about $600 per month that could have been put into bitcoin (so over two years, that cashflow has been able to build up to 24 mos x $600 = $14,400. ... so the total budget over 2 years is about $20,400. I am only going to describe BTC buy strategies, and not sell strategies because selling BTC in early stages of accumulation overly complicates matters, causes the whole situation to be a kind of gambling rather than investing and is not a good practice while still getting early stakes in bitcoin and when not even close to fuck you status, over accumulation or over allocation in BTC.
We can proclaim that initially Hypothetical 1 had some skepticisms about bitcoin, so in the first 6 months ended up ONLY investing $2k with an average Buy price of $7,500 per BTC, and then saw the BTC price moving up in September/October 2020 and invested a lump sum of $5k at about $12k, then saw the BTC price dipping in early 2021 invested a lump sum of $6k at about $35k, and now is waiting for BTC to dip to $24k or a confirmation of supra $50k BTC prices to invest his remaining $7.4k.
Here's what
Hypothetical 1's numbers look like:
$Purchase amount BTC price Amount of BTC Description$2k $7,500 0.26666667 Lump sum
$5k $12,000 0.41666667 Lump sum
$6k $35,000 0.17142857 Lump sum
Totals
Dollar(dry powder) BTC price Amount of BTC Current Value BTC Current Value all $7,400 $42k 0.85476191 $35,900 $43,300
Hypothetical person 2 starts to invest into BTC right away and attempts to maintain ongoing DCA investing, Lump sum investing and buying on dips. He does not time the exact BTC bottom, but tries to prepare for price dips. He divides the $6k into three parts, for buy on dips, DCA and lump sum, and so he lump sums $2k right away. His cashflow is divided into three also, 1/3 for buying on dips and 2/3 for DCA and lumpsum (which ends up being DCA).
So for the 24 month period, his DCA amount is $11,600 (($400x24 = $9,600 + $2,000 = $11,600, and his buy on dips amount is $6,800 ($200 x 24 = $4,800 + $2,000). I will presume that around $4k had been used for buying on dips (which is about 60% of the allocated amount)
Here's what
Hypothetical 2's numbers look like:
$Purchase amount BTC price Amount of BTC Description$2k $5,000 0.4 Lump sum
$11,600 ($110 weekly)
Varies 0.51183
DCA
$4k $40,000 (est.) 0.1 Buying on dips
Totals
Dollar(dry powder) BTC price Amount of BTC Current Value BTC Current Value all $2,800 $42k 1.01183 $42,497 $45,297
I will admit that in my hypothetical, I likely made some presumptions that ended in worse results for the lump summer, which has to do with some hesitancy in buying BTC at various prices, and sure it is possible that sometimes the lump summer (hypothetical 1) is going to time it better than the DCA buyer but there are other times that the lump summer is going to wait and wait and wait.
In the end, the results from this exploration are similar between the above two, but I would still proclaim that it is much better to not be trying to fuck around with guessing about the BTC price and not trying to time the market (except in small ways rather than with major parts of your investing sums), and in that regard it seems way best to have most BTC purchases as DCA.
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