Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0l0c57y24s

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DireWolfM14]

My daughter went out to Chinse food tonight, and this is what her fortune cookie professed:

[Biodom]

Where you guys think rates (short term) will peak at?
WS thinks around 3%.

As soon as we reach peak rates and they start easing or stay flat, btc should go to an overdrive since "real rates" would still be deeply negative at 3% and 8% (or even 6% if it declines somewhat) inflation.
Could be by the EOY.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

I would rather eat bugs than use a POS “Bitcoin”.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Crunchy-Critters-Mixed-20-grams/dp/B00D9826NE/

A P.O.S. “Bitcoin” would be coprophagy, and also buggy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

OK.... What the fuck?

Satoshi Nakamoto wrote production software that has stood up to 13 years of the most difficult pressure a production distributed database could possibly...

... no wait a moment.  That sentence is so amazing already that it can't just be wrapped up with a few more nouns and adjectives.  He invented a trust minimized distributed database.  That in itself is miraculous.  It had never been done before.  And now that it is done, it cannot be reproduced very easily at all.

He knew he had one shot to get it.

And calling it "production software"?  Well it IS that.  But on a level unlike just about anything else in "production".  I suppose software that runs the power grid.  Or perhaps the firmware that runs certain sorts of medical equipment or systems, might come close....

It is art.  But this is not like some moving still life painted by a master.  It's the damned Sistine Chapel.

This is as believable that one person has actually done this, as someone having invented a time machine.  These things don't just work.  You don't spend a weekend typing furiously and coming out with software that will change the world... just like that... version 0.1.

Yes.  There have been bugs.  And there have been tweaks, AND improvements.  AND there are things that could have been different.  Questions that still hang in the air.  Will the disappearing block reward matter?  Will quantum computers break SHA2? Is Craig Wright gay?  Only time will tell.

But consider the ridiculous amount of thought that had to have gone into making something this perfect.  This perfectly balanced.

Who tested it?  Where is the version that crashed.  The version that people played with for a few months before they found the flaw.  Before they figured out a way to profit unfairly.  Right.  That never happened.  The cheaters had to write new software to pull that off... Bitcoin was incorruptible.

A wise man once said "Quick, no time for explanations... give me your pants."

That is, in my humble opinion, as close as anyone has ever come to explaining how this is even POSSIBLE in the first place.

You been drinking?

I feel like I am listening to my drunk genius uncle that I never had.

This is not a criticism of Bitcoin.  (Protip:  Bitcoin does not consist of the opinions of a few mad hatters in WO.)

I recognize that sometimes WO regulars will be accused of engaging in a circle jerk, or being caught up; in a bitcoin, or sharing too much in their belief of NGU bitcoin technology, and even if many WO regulars will still play around with ideas of blindly following bitcoin prayers for UPpity, those are almost completely baseless accusations  - whether directly made or inferred.. and largely just ways to attempt to either minimize the importance of bitcoin (through denigration) or to frame themselves as having superior detached thinking (which again is almost complete bullshit).  Yes, I can see you doing it too D_W.. , and surely you may well be smart in a lot of ways, but surely you have a lot of flaws, too... even if you do happen to be a superiorily programed bot.

[edited out decent historical overview of bitcoin software with some criticisms and somewhat fair framings of matters - and good links]

Frequently - I enjoy reading your various points and spins D_W - and many times you are way more correct than you are wrong with your facts, your logic  and the various conclusions that you reach - even though some of your seemingly patronizing know it all arrogance can come through too..... including but not limited to your seeming to want to bring out some point that denigrates various good points that had been outlined in the post that had inspired your post.  

Even if we disagree with aspects of your postenings, a lot of us can learn things from your writings - if we have enough patience to not get turned off by them and to actually read them, and for sure., some members will not agree with some of your characterizations or maybe even some of the subconclusions that you make.. or that certain facts are completely fair representations (bitcoin was broken before segwit, for example) .. but they still might not want to point out the various ways that they believe that your characterizations may well not be fair to bitcoin or even a fair rendition of how various members may well have historically contributed to bitcoin - including the amazingness of how bitcoin stayed running for more than 13.5 years now and perhaps even the possibility that is suggested in your post in which bitcoin may well have been able to have been improved way more than it otherwise would have because satoshi disappeared and no one needed to wait for Satoshi's opinion on x, y or z BIP.

proudhon, you stupid llama...

Please don't confuse alpacas with llamas.

For some strange reason, I like to refer to him as donkey breath.  I don't know why?

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1535314738078486533
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1SaHGyY9TjPg4a0VNLCsfchoVG1yU3ffTDsPRcU99H1E/preview?pru=AAABgXLEsJ0*Do1LpCUbihcrB507mtatNA&slide=id.g13292353b2a_0_0

I'm very curious to hear the story/reason that they skipped 'Web4' and went to 'Web5' ??

There is a good chance this represents information asymmetry for us, and a few others...

Or as others have said it could be nonsense...  but I have a funny feeling about this.

If Jack were to say something about that, I think his answer would be that "Bitcoin will be the currency of choice for Web5 transactions."

JACK DORSEY’S TBD PRESENTS BITCOIN-BASED DECENTRALIZED WEB5.

Jack Dorsey’s Bitcoin-focused TBD business unit, a subsidiary of Block Inc., announced Friday that it is building a new decentralized web: Web5.

Web5 is based on the assumption that Web3, the idea of building a decentralized web with blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies, has the right intentions but is using the wrong tools.

Web5 leverages Bitcoin, the decentralized monetary network, and a plethora of sound computer science technologies to create a new ecosystem of decentralized identities, data storage and applications in which the users are in control of their personal information.

Fairly decentralized developments in the internet over the past couple of decades such as BitTorrent and Tor have shown that blockchain technology is not a necessary component for decentralization. Rather, the blockchain has only proven to be needed for a very specific purpose – mitigate the double-spend problem to successfully bring peer-to-peer money to the digital realm with Bitcoin.

TBD’s Web5 is made up of software components and services such as decentralized identifiers (DIDs), decentralized web node (DWNs), self-sovereign identity service (SSIS) and a self-sovereign identity software development kit (ssi-sdk). These components let developers focus on building user experiences while more easily enabling decentralized identity and data storage in applications.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

This is what happened last time in 2018 when Hash Ribbon - Capitulation occurred on $BTC. Price went down 50%.

How's that working out for you this time, so far?

 

We can see from the chart that Bitcoin has dumped about 32% from $39K. In just four to five days. Bitcoin hit $32.5K yesterday. The current Bitcoin price is $30K. Bitcoin may go up to $28k price again. And if the price of Bitcoin does not go up to $28k then we can see the price of Bitcoin $35k. And if the price of Bitcoin goes to $28k then we see the price of Bitcoin as $25k next level.

Gosh.. you got all the possibilities covered..

up, down and even sideways implied.





The TA is improving in these here parts...



Hang on to ur panties bois (and gurl, too)!!!



 

seems 99% of us are not like anyone else here either judging by the many differing viewpoints that are discussed in this thread. only common denominator here is the only one of importance.. we agree bitcoin is the future. all else pales in comparison.

True enough.

Rephrase what I said, according to its context:  In the hypothetical event of a total ban, >99% of people here could be easily stopped from using Bitcoin.

If the ban were global (or even just covered the strategically most powerful jurisdictions), the rest of us could then have fun anonymously trading encrypted virtual pizza NFTs for bitcoins—since the market as we now know it would cease to exist.

I urge people to stop blowing off the threats of anything from regulatory attacks on use and trading of Bitcoin, to restrictions on mining, to (less likely, but still possible) widespread bans.

phil, why bother with the vest?  Don’t worry.  You can’t get shot, because it’s illegal for criminals to have guns.

Brings us back to the question regarding how much effort that any of us might be putting into scenarios that have low odds of happening.  

To me, it seems as if you may well be putting way disproportional amount of efforts and resources into a kind of scenario that likely has low odds of playin gout anywhere near the level that it would need to play out in order for you to get your "I told you so " moment... and sure maybe for you, to the extent that you really have not made mistakes, the various costs are worth it.. and you  get a kind of thrill out of making such preparations and being such a "unique beast.".  

Does not mean that others in this thread should even want to put anything close to the same level of preparations and efforts into such scenarios that you hypothesize that may or may not come even close to playing out at your fantasy levels.  

To make your point there, you cherry-picked one post out of an extended discussion.

In this particular post, I primarily mentioned a worst-case scenario that I deem very unlikely:  A total, global ban of Bitcoin in all major jurisdictions, with draconian criminal penalties for mere possession of BTC.  It is hypothetical—as should be implicitly obvious:  I am not so stupid as to discuss publicly my own violation of these nonexistent laws, if they exist or are likely to soon exist!  Of course, it is not impossible:  The United States banned gold for a long time, with draconian criminal penalties for unlicensed individual possession of gold bullion.  A gold coin was deemed “contraband”.

I must drive that point home.  There is no cause to treat me as Chicken Little (or when we turn to discussing E.U. politics, Henny Penny) for my striving to awaken people out of their complacency, when even the absolute worst-case scenario has real-world historical precedent.  Banning Bitcoin would be much easier for the U.S. government than banning gold was in 1934, at a time when a relatively high percentage of middle- and upper-class people owned gold—very few people have Bitcoin, by comparison.  In 1933, a ban of gold must have seemed totally impossible; I’d think that anyone who was worried about a gold ban would have been dismissed as an alarmist.  To gain some perspective, mull on that for a bit.

(Other things that seem very unlikely:  The Nixon Shock.  What, do you imagine that the U.S. government will simply renege and default its obligations to other governments?  You believe that the United States will blatantly break its promises to other governments about the the dollar being redeemable for gold, just like Do Kwon did with the UST peg?  Actually, what the USG did was worse than what Do Kwon did—much worse, and on a much larger scale.  Nah, that will never happen... whoops.)

In the post that started this subthread, I briefly mentioned likelihood of various other scenarios:

Now, I foresee a multi-pronged carrot-and-stick attack to force Bitcoin to switch to POS.  A part of the “stick” is government regulation that drastically drives up the costs and hassles of mining (more likely), or maybe even an outright ban of POW mining (less likely).  The writing is on the wall.  In the U.S., which now hosts a terrific percentage of global hashrate, there are a few Federal legislators actively trying to prevent this:  Cruz, Lummis—anyone else?  Now, why are you sneering at them?

I did not even try to assign a likelihood to an absolute, total ban of Bitcoin.  I raised that worst-case hypothetical to shoot down the stupidity of bragging that governments can’t stop Bitcoin.  Yes, they can.  If the USG banned gold, then they can ban Bitcoin!  It would be costly and difficult for them, but assuredly not impossible.

Due to the cost and difficulty of banning Bitcoin, I think it’s much more likely that anti-Bitcoin factions will seek other ways to bring Bitcoin under control:  To corrupt it, to mislead people to treat it as a quasi-stock (which opens the door to worse regulatory attacks that you ignore in your other post), to suppress mining, and most of all, to force a switch to POS.  That last is not only a very likely attack:  The push for it is already happening!  Actually, all of the scenarios that I have just enumerated are in some degree already happening.

I was speaking way more general in terms of degrees in which some of us might choose to have varying existences in the meat space, and the extent to which your various protective measures are worthwhile.  I doubt that I am going to talk you out of taking measures or denigrating various normies (even engaging in quite a bit of generalizations) in your proclamations of your supposed superior perspective and practices.

My focus is proportionate, measured, and well-attuned to reality.  You are sticking your head in the sand, living in a fantasy that your “King Daddy” is invincible.

We know that you are completely reasonable.

I doubt that I asserted that King daddy is invincible.. but surely getting pretty damned close to that.. especially the longer that it exists..

Have uie-pooie taken enough breaks in your arguing in regards to your superior perspectives to recognize and appreciate Lindy effects .. ?

[Bitcoinking99]

I saw a 50% decline towards the end of 2018. I saw a little earlier that the price of Bitcoin is $29k . But now the price of Bitcoin has risen a little again $31k.I have heard that the price of bitcoin may go down further but the price of bitcoin in the Crypto currency market has started to go down day by day. The government wanted to stop bitcoin but could not. However  Soon Bitcoin will return to its previous state. The market situation is very bad so the price of bitcoin has come down a lot. The good news for those of us who work in this cryptocurrency is that Bitcoin is coming soon $60k Will arrive.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tadamichi]

I saw a 50% decline towards the end of 2018. I saw a little earlier that the price of Bitcoin is $29k . But now the price of Bitcoin has risen a little again $31k.I have heard that the price of bitcoin may go down further but the price of bitcoin in the Crypto currency market has started to go down day by day. The government wanted to stop bitcoin but could not. However  Soon Bitcoin will return to its previous state. The market situation is very bad so the price of bitcoin has come down a lot. The good news for those of us who work in this cryptocurrency is that Bitcoin is coming soon $60k Will arrive.

But this time we’re running into stagflation, i would suggest expanding your investment time horizon now and not touch margin etc. This could take some time.

[arcmetal]

OK.... What the fuck?

Satoshi Nakamoto wrote production software that has stood up to 13 years of the most difficult pressure a production distributed database could possibly...

... no wait a moment.  That sentence is so amazing already that it can't just be wrapped up with a few more nouns and adjectives.  He invented a trust minimized distributed database.  That in itself is miraculous.  It had never been done before.  And now that it is done, it cannot be reproduced very easily at all.

He knew he had one shot to get it.

And calling it "production software"?  Well it IS that.  But on a level unlike just about anything else in "production".  I suppose software that runs the power grid.  Or perhaps the firmware that runs certain sorts of medical equipment or systems, might come close....

It is art.  But this is not like some moving still life painted by a master.  It's the damned Sistine Chapel.

This is as believable that one person has actually done this, as someone having invented a time machine.  These things don't just work.  You don't spend a weekend typing furiously and coming out with software that will change the world... just like that... version 0.1.

Yes.  There have been bugs.  And there have been tweaks, AND improvements.  AND there are things that could have been different.  Questions that still hang in the air.  Will the disappearing block reward matter?  Will quantum computers break SHA2? Is Craig Wright gay?  Only time will tell.

But consider the ridiculous amount of thought that had to have gone into making something this perfect.  This perfectly balanced.

Who tested it?  Where is the version that crashed.  The version that people played with for a few months before they found the flaw.  Before they figured out a way to profit unfairly.  Right.  That never happened.  The cheaters had to write new software to pull that off... Bitcoin was incorruptible.

A wise man once said "Quick, no time for explanations... give me your pants."

That is, in my humble opinion, as close as anyone has ever come to explaining how this is even POSSIBLE in the first place.

That really is a great summation of the situation.

It does remind of how just a week ago I was explaining it to an anti-bitcoiner, someone who didn't want to get, who was fighting me for some reason, as if I was the one that was causing them anguish for having created bitcoin (I don't know).  Anyways,  I put it to him this way: 

It's not like someone is going to come out next week with something better than the internet.  The internet was a massive achievement, but what would this new thing need to be for everyone to just drop the current internet and start using something else.

His response was:  ... what do you mean??  There has been newer and different internets.  "web 2.0".  Then he holds up his iphone and says look at this new internet on here!

At that point I gave up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tadamichi]

That really is a great summation of the situation.

It does remind of how just a week ago I was explaining it to an anti-bitcoiner, someone who didn't want to get, who was fighting me for some reason, as if I was the one that was causing them anguish for having created bitcoin (I don't know).  Anyways,  I put it to him this way: 

It's not like someone is going to come out next week with something better than the internet.  The internet was a massive achievement, but what would this new thing need to be for everyone to just drop the current internet and start using something else.

His response was:  ... what do you mean??  There has been newer and different internets.  "web 2.0".  Then he holds up his iphone and says look at this new internet on here!

At that point I gave up.

Hahahahhahahah it’s just embarrassing. But then again, the opportunity cost for choosing to not understand Bitcoin is getting higher every year, whoever wanna afford this luxury so be it. I gave up on convincing people.