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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368798 times)
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June 10, 2022, 06:41:21 AM

This is what happened last time in 2018 when Hash Ribbon - Capitulation occurred on $BTC. Price went down 50%.

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Make sure you back up your wallet regularly! Unlike a bank account, nobody can help you if you lose access to your BTC.
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June 10, 2022, 06:46:21 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), AlcoHoDL (3), fillippone (3), danadc (1)

RELATIONSHIP WITH WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGE INDICATORS
Although it is tempting to equate the above analysis/visualization with the familiar x-WMA indicators (particularly, the 208-, 104- and 52-WMA), it should be stressed that there is absolutely no averaging whatsoever taking place in the above polar plots. What is actually happening is an angular compression of the huge 7.5-year-long spiral, but without averaging any part of the data. In other words, if there was even a single one-day-wide spike in the spiral trajectory, it would clearly show up in the graphs with a line thick enough to fill several pixels (MATLAB has an extremely precise visualization engine that correctly handles such cases). I have, nonetheless, verified this, by deliberately adding a single one-sample outlier to the data, and it appeared very clearly and as expected (see here for proof). To recap: we are talking about daily high/low prices here, not averages which could filter/smooth out fast-changing elements in the data set. Having said that, the observed similarity between the above polar plots and the corresponding x-WMA charts is interesting, and, IMHO, strengthens the validity of both.

Those are some very interesting visuals that you put together AlcoHoDL - to literally spin information in such a way that largely reinforces information that we feel that we already know but surely provides some possible ways to view the information and to gain some new perspectives about what we are seeing - including that some of us might not realized certain aspects of the information until we see it presented/spun that way.

To some extent I see some advantages for you to have started the data in late 2014 as you did - and maybe some of the data would have been a bit more confusing in 2013/2014 - but really it seems that Bitstamp has market information going back to about October 2011 - even though surely several times I have argued that it may not really be very representative to attempt to make financial proclamation before 2012-ish.. but still some market dynamics were already coming into existence in those earlier days/years in bitcoinlandia.

For sure, we can find a lot of values in measuring BTC spot price, especially if we are trying to consider what our various onloading into BTC costs might have been and the various points in which we may have wanted to unload some or all of our bitcoins and potentially be in profits along the way.  

Many of us have grown to appreciate that so far in BTC price history,. BTC has not had any periods of greater than 3.5 years-ish in which any purchases would have been at a loss and we can easily see that by looking at any BTC price peak and then going 3.5 years after that to see that the BTC price is at least at the level of the peak price or higher.  

At the same time, even without really knowing the particulars of normie BTC hodlrs/accumulators, it just seems so much more prudent to have more than just a mere cycle (4 years) under the belt before (generally speaking) any normie HODLer/accumulator should be getting into the employment of serious BTC liquidation strategies... of course, there is going to be variance in terms of the level of aggressiveness and/or level of overaccumulation reached that each normie BTC HODLer/accumulator needs to assess for himself/herself... and surely there can be individualistic comfort levels of just knowing it when you see it.. but at the same time, there should be some cautions regarding cashing out way too much BTC too soon.. which is another error that normies tend to make - besides the even more common error of failing/refusing to get started in BTC accumulation in the first place.

For sure various kinds of moving averages may well come in quite handy too.. especially for longer term term BTC HODLers - but also perhaps for guys (and gal) attempting to time larger BTC price swing trends in terms of figuring out some aspects of BTC portfolio management... whether still in BTC accumulation mode or maintenance or liquidation mode... for sure we can find some values in the linger terms ones such as 104 weeks (2 years) or 208 weeks  (4 years)., and so many times many of us will be kind of winging it, too, when it comes to making determinations regarding if we want to engage in higher levels of accumulation or liquidation ..   Oh by the way, I would imagine that that some of those longer moving averages would be quite boring in terms of even showing much if any overlap in cycles... so the shorter moving averages of 52 and less will have way more overlapping periods.
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June 10, 2022, 07:03:28 AM


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June 10, 2022, 07:22:20 AM
Merited by fillippone (3)

I am going to be pissed off if I bite into any bolts, nuts or washers when eating my fillippone-prepared pizza.

#justsaying.

Would you mind if you bite on a gold-coated BTC Bitcoin-themed Washer?

@JayJuanGee, And He already won the Pizza Contest. Congratulations Fillippone for winning the contest. Did he send you a fresh slice of his self-made pizza? The Pizza Badge is shining under his name. Looks cool.

Congratulations Fillippone for winning this year's Bitcoin Pizza Day bake off contest!

Thank you everyone for participating and for the people just tuning in, this is the third edition of this contest and while the rules were mostly unchanged, I'm thinking of spicing things up next year!

Fair enough.

I must have been way too presumptively dismissive regarding any pizza skills that Fillippone was able to bring to the table / oven, which likely goes to show that the stereotype about "exaggerating Italians" does not always play out- especially when we (royal perhaps?) witness "there there."

Good morning WO. I see we are desperately in need of a new poll.

Any realistic TA which says we will see 40k soon?

Only my gut feeling is saying so….
Does that count as TA?


last I checked.. without any pic, then no.

(pee pee pics no don't count)
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June 10, 2022, 08:01:20 AM


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June 10, 2022, 09:03:32 AM


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June 10, 2022, 09:06:42 AM
Last edit: June 10, 2022, 09:29:14 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

Of course, we have all kind of things going on in bitcoin at the same time in terms of what makes it useful and what makes it valuable and what kinds of liquidation avenues exists (and what kinds of onboarding ways exist).   The mere fact that guys might not be searching ways to buy coffee with their bitcoin does not automatically translate into their ONLY "speculating" bullshit dichotomy that you suggested in terms of SCAM and inferences towards those other various dumbass talking points that we heard from the bigblocker nutjobs in 2017 and we hear them repeated from time to time.

The argument that Bitcoin should be used as money is sound.  It does not logically lead to the conclusion that we should blow up the blocksize—a non-scaling non-solution which would wreck Bitcoin, like taking cyanide to cure a headache.  Strawmanning me with bigblockers is rather unjustified, don’t you think.

No.  I think that I made my points.  You seem to be making different points.

Do you do the same to Bitrefill, or to the people who build Lightning checkout terminals for literal purchases of cups of coffee?

Yes.  Of course, we have a lot going on in bitcoin.  Was I saying that systems for spending bitcoin should not be developed?  If we have bitcoin, then we can choose whether we want to spend our lil precious or not, though, no?

Seems that I was proclaiming that anyone telling HODLers that we need to spend our bitcoin in order to be a proper bitcoiner should fuck off.  BTC HODLers can do what we want, and hopefully bitcoin gives us options rather than obligations to follow any prescriptions regarding what we need to do in regards to our bitcoin.

I redouble what I said:  A thing that exists only for the purpose of trying to resell it for a higher price is a SCAM and a textbook Ponzi scheme.  

Apparently we are not talking about bitcoin then.

If you try to contradict and rebut that, you are inviting that your arguments be used and quoted to shill for thousands of worthless shitcoins in WO.

You must be trying to make some different points than me.  If you are making some kind of description of what is a scam and what is not a scam and then trying to suggest that some bitcoiners are less than pure because they are thinking about and using bitcoin in ways that seem scammy, then that is your choice... From my perspective, Bitcoin is not a scam,.. and BTC hodlers can choose how to think about bitcoin, how to talk about bitcoin and how to use their bitcoin (or not) too; whether pure speculation or various ways that you believe are not assisting with bitcoin velocity. It's their choice regarding whether and how to use their bitcoin and how to think about it, too.

I did mention in an earlier post that I have a “cordial contempt” for anyone who buys into Bitcoin only to seek a profit—for “ONLY speculating”, as you put it here.  (See end of linked post.)  I explained why.  I absolutely stand by my words there.

It's your choice if you want to classify bitcoiners in terms of their views and actions about bitcoin.

[...] like a stock (which is perhaps only part of the story or a temporary status for whatever that bitcoiners might be doing and uie-pooie don't like it) .

Bitcoin is NOT A STOCK, it is NOTHING LIKE A STOCK, and I will rain hellfire on any suggestions that treating it like a stock is somehow acceptable behaviour.  I have an absolute, no-compromise, non-negotiable zero-tolerance policy for mistreating Bitcoin as if it’s a quasi-stock.

People can treat bitcoin like a stock if they want to.  It's their choice.

You misunderstood my point about that.

Want to buy and hold Bitcoin as a speculative investment in a deflationary currency?  Fine.  HODL.

Want to trade Bitcoin for profit?  Fine.  Have fun trading high-volatility forex.  Indeed, BTC should be a delight to pro forex traders who get bored with chasing a few bps on the EUR/USD pair, or whatever.

Thanks for permission in regards to those possible uses.


Bitcoin is money, i.e., a currency.  A stock is not a currency.  A stock is nothing like a currency.  And in altcoinland, I have recently experienced up-close what happens when people treat an alleged “cryptocurrency” like a stock:  Fungibility gets broken, investors with losses demand some sort of a refund (!) based on how much they paid (!!), and greed-blinded scammers throw the door wide open for securities regulators to crack down on their illegal unregistered securities scheme.

Sure bitcoin can be like money, too.. I don't know what shitcoins have to do with this, except that if I have bitcoin and I have shitcoins, then I will most likely spend the shitcoins first.

Your tolerance of thinking of Bitcoin like a stock will lead to:

  • 1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.  People who bought BTC for $67,000 will demand special rights and higher equity—because they paid-in a capital contribution larger than people who bought BTC for $200, or for $0.01, or for pizza at a notional rate of 0.0002 unit pizzas per 1 BTC.  They will complain that it’s unfair that they paid literally >26,000,000x more for BTC than some other people paid for BTC.  Unfair!  Think it can’t happen?  That is exactly what happened in Terra, where it was deemed “unfair” that some people paid $100 for LUNA, and others paid $0.000003 for LUNA—all in fair-market trades.  (Bitcoiner honesty:  “A trade happens because both parties think they’re getting a good deal.” — Laszlo Hanyecz.)

That seems to have little to do with whatever points I was making earlier.

  • Regulation as a security.  Existing laws not only allow, but require securities regulators to regulate stocks.  This includes anything that behaves like a stock, on grounds of “looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck”.  Some altcoins, some ICOs, and some of the weirder NFT projects have gotten in trouble on such grounds.  And if Bitcoin, a decentralized system with no boss, gets infected with the brain-damage of treating BTC like a stock, then there is no way to stop people from corrupting it so that BTC really behaves like a stock.
  • Shareholder rights.  People who own shares of stock have rights accorded by law and custom.  People who buy BTC in the belief that it’s “like a stock” will naturally start to demand those types of rights.
  • This list could be continued.  I think I’ve made my point.

Yes... You are making a new subject... like a strawman set of arguments to argue with some fictitious character that does not seem to be not me... or maybe you believe that such character is me, but whatever, I was not talking about the kinds of considerations that you are raising... which seem questionably relevant to any points that i had been making.

Bitcoin is now a topic of mass-media headlines.  It is attracting buyers who have no idea what it is.

That's true.  I doubt that I am contributing to any confusion in regards to what bitcoin is or is not.

I have spoken to people both online and IRL who are just now getting curious about Bitcoin—curious enough to be interested in buying BTC.  Not infrequently, their uncomprehending search for a familiar analogy leads them to:  “So, Bitcoin is sort of like a stock.”  

Whenever I speak with people about bitcoin, I like to attempt to figure out their various reference points, and to attempt to work with them from where they are at.. rather than presuming some kind of hypothetical place that they have to be in order to be a  "true bitcoiner."  

So if someone said to me that bitcoin is like a stock, then I would start out by saying no.. but if they are not asking my opinion, then maybe we might go further in our conversation in regards to my trying to inquire whether they engage with self-custody or if they hold their BTC with 3rd parties.  

Also, if they have already bought bitcoin, then that seems to be a lot better than if they are merely talking hypothetical as a no coiner or as someone who "used-to own" bitcoin.  For me, it tends to make more sense to go into details about preferable ways to hold bitcoin in the event that they have actually bought bitcoin already versus if they are speaking hypothetically.

Yes, I have run into quite a few folks in real life who are afraid to try to hold bitcoin on their own.. so they are just getting price exposure by holding it through a third party.. What are we supposed to do, cut off our conversation with them because they are not pure enough for us or impose our values upon them and they will not even follow what we suggest anyhow?   Do you believe that you can proclaim some kind of ideal on high and normies will just fall in line and start to do whatever you had proclaimed to be correct because it is a best practice?  What if you told them that you  like to gamble with your BTC, but they should do something more simple?  Do you believe that will be helpful to help to clarify for them what they should do?

 It seems that there is only so much that any of us can do when interacting with various normies in real life in terms of even getting them to hold their own keys when they are already barely into bitcoin in the first place, but at least they have taken some pro-active steps by getting some exposure.. versus not having had gotten involved at all... so part of my point is to figure out from where my audience is coming before figure presume too much and start lecturing at them in ways that are too abstract and will not even motivate them anyhow, if they were to be on the cusp of actually getting involved in bitcoin or even moving their keys to some form of self-custody.

That is innocent ignorance, but it is dangerous ignorance:  Dangerous to them (it’s a great way to lose money!), and even more dangerous to Bitcoin.  

Dangerous to bitcoin.. ok.

It must be corrected—kindly corrected, in the many cases of good-faith confusion, but corrected firmly nevertheless.

It depends.  If you actually deal with real people, they tend to be all over the place, even if there may well be some common themes.

As a longtime Bitcoiner, I have a duty to Bitcoin to help keep it healthy by educating the clueless newbies:  Bitcoin is absolutely nothing like a stock.  Bitcoin is a currency.  The correct analogy:  Buying BTC is like exchanging your USD to EUR, JPY, etc.

Yes.  You can choose how you discuss matters in any way that you like.

This means, among other things:

  • When you buy BTC, your paid-in equity is zero.
  • You are not making a capital contribution to an enterprise.
  • Accordingly, Bitcoin has no memory of what you paid for it.
  • When you “buy BTC”, you are exchanging one currency to another.  Your then hold that currency, and your holding is denominated exclusively in that currency:  1 BTC = 1 BTC.  “1 BTC” has no dollar equivalent, no dollar value—except for the freely-floating market exchange rate of an independent currency, Bitcoin, trading against the dollar.
  • By analogy, if you exchange your USD to EUR, the ECB does not keep track of how many dollars you paid-in to their system.  You did not make a capital contribution to Europe—not in the sense of purchasing an equity stake in an enterprise.  You swapped one currency for another.  You now hold hold EUR, not USD.  EUR does not have a dollar-denominated value:  The value of EUR is denominated in EUR:  1 EUR = 1 EUR.  That is easy to understand, and it is nothing like investing in a stock.

Most likely I would not present matters like that, so of course, the choice is yours regarding what you are going to say.

Some aspects of how I talk about bitcoin has changed over the years, but I tend to start out by suggesting that bitcoin is a unique asset class in which everyone should attempt to invest, and currently I am suggesting that such investment should be 1% to 25% of their investment portfolio... so they are the ones who need to both figure out what is goin  to be their target BTC accumulation level and also how they are going to get there in terms of DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing.  Once they reach their accumulation level target (or perhaps overallocate into BTC) then thy have more options.  

Over the years, I have become more  comfortable with how I discuss BTC with people, but of course, I am still learning ways of framing matters too - while at the same time considering attempting to figure out if my audience is even receptive to bitcoin discussions, but if they are somewhat interested, it is helpful to start out with several basics, and whatever the fuck you are talking about in terms of basics seems way too abstract, and I don't consider currency analogy to be very helpful.. even though that is one of bitcoin's possible use cases.

Sure some aspects of bitcoin are changing with the times too.. so there might be lightning developments (even El Salvador's usage as a test location) or legislations to make transacting easier (less burdensome), and these developments might contribute towards my changing some of my ways of talking about bitcoin.. perhaps? perhaps?... not over night, and I am not going to start to insert any of your seemingly overly abstract talking points.

These are not nitpicks, and not idle theories.  They are issues both of profound principle, and of grave practical import.  Observe my use here of some terminology that has precise, highly significant legal meanings.

From my perspective, most of them come off as a wee bit more abstract than ways in which I prefer to attempt to interact with normies.  Sure each of us have our ways of talking, so do what you like.  If it works for you when interacting with aliens, then so be it.

We know that Bitcoin is multi-faceted in its use cases. We know that there is a lot of why not both..

Bitcoin has many use cases.  Treating it like a stock is NOT one of them, but it does have many use cases.

It seems that you are the one who brought up the idea of treating bitcoin as a stock, and I just said whatever... so it is your talking point, not mine.

Medium of exchange—store of value—sure, why not both.  However, the cart cannot come before the horse.  Bitcoin’s utility as a medium of exchange is an intrinsic, inseparable part of what gives it the fundamental value that makes it a good store of value.  It is not a tangible pretty thing like gold, so its only fundamental value is its nature as a superior form of money.

Comes off as a BIG Blocker nonsense talking point to me.  You probably got that wrong in terms of order, but whatever  I don't really feel that it is necessary to argue big blocker nonsense talking points that we beat to death for about 4 years or so in this thread from 2016 to 2019... and you want to bring them up again as if they are your own unique perspective?

I should not even need to be responding to any pints that I made, but hey.. I am willing to entertain matters to some extent including to point out that we know that Gresham's law exists too, along the side of at least 7 network effects that are still building in connection with bitcoin and are at various stages of their growth as well as that some of those same network effects build upon others, snowballing and feedback loops..

All of those theories about Gresham’s Law and network effects stand on my premise that Bitcoin is money.  Not a stock.  Definitely not a Ponzi that exists only for resale to the greater fool.

You seem to be creating some false frameworks.  bitcoin is the strongest of monies.. so likely spend it last.  People can decide these matters for themselves in regards to which monies they want to spend first, and if you want to spend your bitcoin first, then that is your choice.. you probably are going to regret it because you had not realized that it s the one that you should have been spending last... each person decides for himself. The seven or more Network effects are an existing phenomena that we could measure if we wanted to.

Again, you seem to be creating some false dichotomies and even wrong thinking if you believe everything is premised upon spending first.. but you can believe what you like.

I’m not sure why you are arguing with my premise, when it is a prerequisite for your conclusions.

It's not.  I am not arguing.. Go do what you like, believe what you like and propagate the information that you like..

Furthermore, in the spirit of Gresham's law, if we already can appreciate  that Bitcoin is the best of moneys, why would we want to spend it first (as I already referred to that)?..

I did hint that “go out and spend your coins!” is, in itself, not exactly the best financial advice.  I myself hate to spend my BTC savings; if possible, I prefer to use Bitcoin as a payment rail, sort of like my own personal version of Strike.  When that is not a practical option (as it often is not), I have developed over the years some methods of personal finance accounting that help me to reduce or avoid the negative effect of spending my BTC—in essence, ways of managing currency exchange risk when I hold an extremely volatile currency.

Your not exactly being clear.

Since I keep my primary savings in BTC, aversion to spending BTC is a part of how I got in trouble with debt.  A few months ago, I tried settling some BTC-spending transactions by borrowing dollars against BTC, using the dollars to buy BTC, and then immediately spending what was effectually margin-buy BTC.  

I doubt that we want to listen to you in regards to either how to manage our BTC or how to not manage our BTC.  With any kind of debt it is good to have options in terms of servicing it.. such as a cashflow... or other liquidation items that are not volatile in the same way.


Quote from: death_wish link=topic=178336.msg60318959#msg60318959 date=1654739908
I thought it was a clever way to avoid spending my BTC—[i
and[/i] to avoid exchange rate risk, since I was essentially doing an unprofitable arbitrage trade on margin.  Needless to say, this use of debt turned out to be a very bad idea (although doing similarly with fiat cash would probably be wise).

We have to be careful not to be too clever... or too clever for our own good.

Much though I loathe spending my own BTC, I also actively seek to use BTC as money—to use it one of my most preferred payment methods, and to support vendors who accept BTC.  The effort and the unfortunate risks that I have taken to reconcile these two conflicting goals shows, at least, that I put my money where my mouth is.

I doubt that you are clear in a situation that would be any kind of potentially generally applicable one that can be used by a lot of guys..especially if you are keeping a lot of value in BTC and maybe you do not even have enough other kinds of cash reserves?  

Many of us have value that is in BTC and also value that is pegged to the dollar.  So usually we might have our expenses projected out for 6-24 months in the future.. so of course, if we have investments other than bitcoin, we can choose how much allocation to keep in each of those assets, too.. but then the main two for discussion purposes of this thread are dollars (or other fiat) and BTC.  

If you start playing around with one of them or the other of them (BTC and dollar in this case), then you are gambling, so I frequently suggest that we need to try to lessen the extent to which we are gambling with our investment portfolio, so we should be trying to develop systems to continue to increase our investment portfolio without putting principle at risk, and the more that we build a cushion in assets that we are holding in our investment portfolio, then the more options that we have to shave some of them off at times of our own choosing.

Yes, maybe I am also devolving into too much abstraction, but just getting to the point of figuring out your investment portfolio0 can take some time before figuring out how to manage it, so cashflow, timeline, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, and time, skills and abilities to plan, strategize, learn and tweak along the way which might include the employment of trading, reallocating, leverage, financial instruments.    .. But surely, the more basic techniques should be employed and honed before attempting to employ more advanced techniques.
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June 10, 2022, 09:38:55 AM



We can see from the chart that Bitcoin has dumped about 32% from $39K. In just four to five days. Bitcoin hit $32.5K yesterday. The current Bitcoin price is $30K. Bitcoin may go up to $28k price again. And if the price of Bitcoin does not go up to $28k then we can see the price of Bitcoin $35k. And if the price of Bitcoin goes to $28k then we see the price of Bitcoin as $25k next level.
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June 10, 2022, 10:07:50 AM



We can see from the chart that Bitcoin has dumped about 32% from $39K. In just four to five days. Bitcoin hit $32.5K yesterday. The current Bitcoin price is $30K. Bitcoin may go up to $28k price again. And if the price of Bitcoin does not go up to $28k then we can see the price of Bitcoin $35k. And if the price of Bitcoin goes to $28k then we see the price of Bitcoin as $25k next level.




Taking a good Look at this Chart you posted here I went back to my chart and using the same daily time frame (D) you used to construct your analysis , seem you're backwards to what Bitcoin is currently doing as at the moment when I viewed my chart. Therefore 8 days back from the current Chart , I think these chart is an outdated one.
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June 10, 2022, 10:20:41 AM

seems 99% of us are not like anyone else here either judging by the many differing viewpoints that are discussed in this thread. only common denominator here is the only one of importance.. we agree bitcoin is the future. all else pales in comparison.

True enough.

Rephrase what I said, according to its context:  In the hypothetical event of a total ban, >99% of people here could be easily stopped from using Bitcoin.

If the ban were global (or even just covered the strategically most powerful jurisdictions), the rest of us could then have fun anonymously trading encrypted virtual pizza NFTs for bitcoins—since the market as we now know it would cease to exist.

I urge people to stop blowing off the threats of anything from regulatory attacks on use and trading of Bitcoin, to restrictions on mining, to (less likely, but still possible) widespread bans.


phil, why bother with the vest?  Don’t worry.  You can’t get shot, because it’s illegal for criminals to have guns.

Brings us back to the question regarding how much effort that any of us might be putting into scenarios that have low odds of happening. 

To me, it seems as if you may well be putting way disproportional amount of efforts and resources into a kind of scenario that likely has low odds of playin gout anywhere near the level that it would need to play out in order for you to get your "I told you so " moment... and sure maybe for you, to the extent that you really have not made mistakes, the various costs are worth it.. and you  get a kind of thrill out of making such preparations and being such a "unique beast.". 

Does not mean that others in this thread should even want to put anything close to the same level of preparations and efforts into such scenarios that you hypothesize that may or may not come even close to playing out at your fantasy levels. 
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 10, 2022, 10:38:54 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), death_wish (1)

proudhon, you stupid llama...

Please don't confuse alpacas with llamas.


silly you: maths and sciences prove that llamas=alpacas

well for certain values of maths and sciences anyway
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June 10, 2022, 11:01:21 AM


Explanation
shahzadafzal
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June 10, 2022, 11:31:41 AM

My relationship status with 30k

Love…
Hate…
Love…
I don’t know it’s complicated

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June 10, 2022, 12:05:00 PM


Explanation
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#SWGT CERTIK Audited


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June 10, 2022, 12:16:57 PM

My relationship status with 30k

Love…
Hate…
Love…
I don’t know it’s complicated



Hehehehe Sir its the matter with Condition.

As you see 28k to 29k  market approaching the 20k seems lovely and
As you see market approaching the 32k to backstep 30k you hate the resistance.

Its nothing 🤣 complicated Just Greed approach 😂 haha .
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June 10, 2022, 12:26:29 PM

proudhon, you stupid llama...

Please don't confuse alpacas with llamas.


silly you: maths and sciences prove that llamas=alpacas

well for certain values of maths and sciences anyway

Proof:

  • Assume that all alpacas are identical, spherical, and equal to llamas.
  • Assume that a unit llama equals ±whale.
  • Assume that a unit alpaca, peacefully grazing on a finite field, is equal to a member of the species Trollus Bitcoinforumus.
  • Assume that a unit llama is equal to the non-Euclidean projection of a bear on the Wall, but only when it is Observed in a fully quantum mechanical manner because this is supposed to have “maths and sciences”, not only “maths”, and anyway, in the interest of comedy, it is a project requirement to abuse jargon until \AlcoHoDL starts drinking.
  • Short Bitcoin at high leverage.  Unless it’s really crashing badly:  Then, go long on leverage.
  • ? ? ?
  • Profit!

Q.E.D.
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June 10, 2022, 01:03:29 PM


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June 10, 2022, 01:07:59 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (6), El duderino_ (5), xhomerx10 (1)

Seems Bitcoin didn't like those CPI numbers. Or is it that the trad markets didn't like it and there are still a few hold outs left from this latest Bitcoin bull run that think Bitcoin is just another asset.

I have noticed over the last few weeks though that there is definitely some decoupling going on. This makes me think that 90% of the weak minded, weak handed fools have already vanished. If we do get further dumping from this point the last 10% will be gone I'm sure. Which will then lead to complete decoupling and the start of our next bull run.
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June 10, 2022, 01:27:14 PM

seems 99% of us are not like anyone else here either judging by the many differing viewpoints that are discussed in this thread. only common denominator here is the only one of importance.. we agree bitcoin is the future. all else pales in comparison.

True enough.

Rephrase what I said, according to its context:  In the hypothetical event of a total ban, >99% of people here could be easily stopped from using Bitcoin.

If the ban were global (or even just covered the strategically most powerful jurisdictions), the rest of us could then have fun anonymously trading encrypted virtual pizza NFTs for bitcoins—since the market as we now know it would cease to exist.

I urge people to stop blowing off the threats of anything from regulatory attacks on use and trading of Bitcoin, to restrictions on mining, to (less likely, but still possible) widespread bans.


phil, why bother with the vest?  Don’t worry.  You can’t get shot, because it’s illegal for criminals to have guns.

Brings us back to the question regarding how much effort that any of us might be putting into scenarios that have low odds of happening.  

To me, it seems as if you may well be putting way disproportional amount of efforts and resources into a kind of scenario that likely has low odds of playin gout anywhere near the level that it would need to play out in order for you to get your "I told you so " moment... and sure maybe for you, to the extent that you really have not made mistakes, the various costs are worth it.. and you  get a kind of thrill out of making such preparations and being such a "unique beast.".  

Does not mean that others in this thread should even want to put anything close to the same level of preparations and efforts into such scenarios that you hypothesize that may or may not come even close to playing out at your fantasy levels.  

To make your point there, you cherry-picked one post out of an extended discussion.

In this particular post, I primarily mentioned a worst-case scenario that I deem very unlikely:  A total, global ban of Bitcoin in all major jurisdictions, with draconian criminal penalties for mere possession of BTC.  It is hypothetical—as should be implicitly obvious:  I am not so stupid as to discuss publicly my own violation of these nonexistent laws, if they exist or are likely to soon exist!  Of course, it is not impossible:  The United States banned gold for a long time, with draconian criminal penalties for unlicensed individual possession of gold bullion.  A gold coin was deemed “contraband”.

I must drive that point home.  There is no cause to treat me as Chicken Little (or when we turn to discussing E.U. politics, Henny Penny) for my striving to awaken people out of their complacency, when even the absolute worst-case scenario has real-world historical precedent.  Banning Bitcoin would be much easier for the U.S. government than banning gold was in 1934, at a time when a relatively high percentage of middle- and upper-class people owned gold—very few people have Bitcoin, by comparison.  In 1933, a ban of gold must have seemed totally impossible; I’d think that anyone who was worried about a gold ban would have been dismissed as an alarmist.  To gain some perspective, mull on that for a bit.

(Other things that seem very unlikely:  The Nixon Shock.  What, do you imagine that the U.S. government will simply renege and default its obligations to other governments?  You believe that the United States will blatantly break its promises to other governments about the the dollar being redeemable for gold, just like Do Kwon did with the UST peg?  Actually, what the USG did was worse than what Do Kwon did—much worse, and on a much larger scale.  Nah, that will never happen... whoops.)

In the post that started this subthread, I briefly mentioned likelihood of various other scenarios:

Now, I foresee a multi-pronged carrot-and-stick attack to force Bitcoin to switch to POS.  A part of the “stick” is government regulation that drastically drives up the costs and hassles of mining (more likely), or maybe even an outright ban of POW mining (less likely).  The writing is on the wall.  In the U.S., which now hosts a terrific percentage of global hashrate, there are a few Federal legislators actively trying to prevent this:  Cruz, Lummis—anyone else?  Now, why are you sneering at them?

I did not even try to assign a likelihood to an absolute, total ban of Bitcoin.  I raised that worst-case hypothetical to shoot down the stupidity of bragging that governments can’t stop Bitcoin.  Yes, they can.  If the USG banned gold, then they can ban Bitcoin!  It would be costly and difficult for them, but assuredly not impossible.

Due to the cost and difficulty of banning Bitcoin, I think it’s much more likely that anti-Bitcoin factions will seek other ways to bring Bitcoin under control:  To corrupt it, to mislead people to treat it as a quasi-stock (which opens the door to worse regulatory attacks that you ignore in your other post), to suppress mining, and most of all, to force a switch to POS.  That last is not only a very likely attack:  The push for it is already happening!  Actually, all of the scenarios that I have just enumerated are in some degree already happening.

My focus is proportionate, measured, and well-attuned to reality.  You are sticking your head in the sand, living in a fantasy that your “King Daddy” is invincible.
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