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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 3 (3.8%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (1.3%)
$80K to $85K - 2 (2.5%)
$85K to $90K - 9 (11.3%)
$90K to $95K - 12 (15%)
$95K to $100K - 13 (16.3%)
>$100K - 40 (50%)
Total Voters: 80

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26498500 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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June 10, 2022, 07:03:28 PM


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June 10, 2022, 07:38:42 PM
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Sorry, @jack, but not sorry:  I use Nitter to read your tweets, instead of the awful web2 app for that disastrously centralized bird-silo you created.
https://nitter.net/jack/status/1535314738078486533

Speaking as someone up to his eyeballs in web3, seeing some good concepts but also tons of bad code and corruption:  Interesting.  I like the shot he took at the VCs.

The non-googledocs informative site is here:
https://developer.tbd.website/projects/web5/

ENOTIME to look yet.  Prediction:  Either it will suck, and I will be inspired to create webn, or it will be great, and I will regret wasting time on Internet forums instead of working on stuff like this.
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June 10, 2022, 07:54:25 PM






I've heard that you guys are feeling pain. Cheesy Cheesy
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June 10, 2022, 08:04:55 PM


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June 10, 2022, 08:09:51 PM

Newsflash:  INFLATION IS HIGH.*  Surprise!  Reaction:  SELL THE DEFLATIONARY CURRENCY, TO BUY THE INFLATIONARY CURRENCY!

Makes sense.  To the average “Bitcoin investor” nowadays.

This is the least problem with letting people think of Bitcoin as sort of like a stock.


* Assuredly much higher than the heavily manipulated CPI numbers show.  What kind of an idiot believes the CPI numbers?  The kind who reacts to high dollar inflation by spending more money (BTC) to buy dollars.
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June 10, 2022, 08:20:08 PM

This is what happened last time in 2018 when Hash Ribbon - Capitulation occurred on $BTC. Price went down 50%.
image loading...


Let me guess... 

... if that dip occurs, you will be the "I-told-you-so-guy" rubbing in everyone's face how your TA skills let you foresee these things...

And if it doesn't occur, you will just go on with business, as if nothing ever happened...

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June 10, 2022, 08:29:34 PM

Newsflash:  INFLATION IS HIGH.*  Surprise!  Reaction:  SELL THE DEFLATIONARY CURRENCY, TO BUY THE INFLATIONARY CURRENCY!

Makes sense.  To the average “Bitcoin investor” nowadays.

This is the least problem with letting people think of Bitcoin as sort of like a stock.


* Assuredly much higher than the heavily manipulated CPI numbers show.  What kind of an idiot believes the CPI numbers?  The kind who reacts to high dollar inflation by spending more money (BTC) to buy dollars.


Selling BTC for $ seems so irrational right now, that in my tinfoil mode I tend to think "someone" manipulates the price down, so that Bitcoin doesn't appear as the goto place in this inflationary environment..

...or maybe that "someone" wants to get in as cheap as possible
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June 10, 2022, 08:49:40 PM

Newsflash:  INFLATION IS HIGH.*  Surprise!  Reaction:  SELL THE DEFLATIONARY CURRENCY, TO BUY THE INFLATIONARY CURRENCY!

Makes sense.  To the average “Bitcoin investor” nowadays.

This is the least problem with letting people think of Bitcoin as sort of like a stock.


* Assuredly much higher than the heavily manipulated CPI numbers show.  What kind of an idiot believes the CPI numbers?  The kind who reacts to high dollar inflation by spending more money (BTC) to buy dollars.


Selling BTC for $ seems so irrational right now, that in my tinfoil mode I tend to think "someone" manipulates the price down, so that Bitcoin doesn't appear as the goto place in this inflationary environment..

...or maybe that "someone" wants to get in as cheap as possible

Stupidity vs. malice.  Mass-stupidity, versus malice of market manipulators who may not want Bitcoin to compete with the dollar.

Both seem not unlikely.  Why not both?

Perspective:  Frustrating experience trying to explain to “wow, look at the headlines! so I wanna buy Bitcoin now” nocoiners what Bitcoin is—and what it isn’t.

> No, it’s not a stock.  It’s not anything like a stock.  Do you know anything about forex trading?

< But I see in the news that every time the stock market goes up, Bitcoin goes up—every time the stock market goes down, Bitcoin goes down.  It’s an investment just like a stock.

> [head explodes]
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June 10, 2022, 09:01:26 PM


Explanation
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June 10, 2022, 09:33:48 PM
Last edit: June 10, 2022, 10:03:24 PM by cAPSLOCK

There is a good chance this represents information asymmetry for us, and a few others...

Or as others have said it could be nonsense...  but I have a funny feeling about this.



Oh yeah... could also be a huge corporate bitcoin takeover.

I don;t know.

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June 10, 2022, 09:48:43 PM
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I'm very curious to hear the story/reason that they skipped 'Web4' and went to 'Web5' ??

There is a good chance this represents information asymmetry for us, and a few others...

Or as others have said it could be nonsense...  but I have a funny feeling about this.



If Jack were to say something about that, I think his answer would be that "Bitcoin will be the currency of choice for Web5 transactions."
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June 10, 2022, 09:58:09 PM

Looks like we are right on the cusp of a huge downswing (crash?) in freight rates, especially East to West. If it doesn't happen naturally, one more Fed rate hike will definitely send freight rates plunging globally.

What Fed does is not important anymore. The world is different now. The world is fed up with the US dollar and countries holding US treasuries are looking to dump them. Much more important is the Russian ruble as the world is hungry for rubles.
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June 10, 2022, 10:04:39 PM


I'm very curious to hear the story/reason that they skipped 'Web4' and went to 'Web5' ??

There is a good chance this represents information asymmetry for us, and a few others...

Or as others have said it could be nonsense...  but I have a funny feeling about this.



If Jack were to say something about that, I think his answer would be that "Bitcoin will be the currency of choice for Web5 transactions."

There is already a lot of scuttlebut about the role of identity in Web5/BTC.  People basically griping that perhaps this will be the mega-super-mondo-utra KYC tool.

What a rug pull on the part of jack, if that is the case...

But if he is above board, and the projects go the right direction... man this is going to show Brian Armstrong what it felt like to be Yahoo.

That's why I saw this is info asymmetry...  I wonder what SQ is gonna do, stonk wise.  This might be where SQ and COIN became the flippening that has been prophesied from old...  Because you know, the PROTOCOL is not being replaced.  But the best company building on it?  I think we might be seeing that torch handed off.

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June 10, 2022, 10:04:53 PM


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June 10, 2022, 10:16:07 PM

Hello guys, I have been reviewing articles and reading opinions, so far everything has been Bearish style news and Bearish predictions, I stay with this Conitlegraph article:

Quote
Insight into what it would take to avoid a pullback to the support at $28,000 was provided by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user CrediBULL Crypto, who posted the following chart showing the “unfortunate” retrace from $30,000, the area. The analyst suggested that this “was the moment where we needed to see follow through.”



Quote
“On support, but it's been tested four times now, so more likely it gives way to $28K. IF we can get back above $30K, then $28K may be avoided.”

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-altcoins-sell-off-on-record-high-inflation-but-traders-still-expect-btc-to-consolidate

Any indicates that $ 28K is the limit for it to rise or fall in price, but I do not know how reliable this is, it is obvious that they are analyzing in the short term, but if the whales decide to rise in price to $ 35K, I do not think that Lower the $ 30K, and $ 30K is a psychological level.
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June 10, 2022, 10:36:19 PM
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https://youtu.be/1lwdsjyKbKg
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June 10, 2022, 11:01:21 PM


You missed my point.  That's OK My point was not super clear.  But in the very next line (I think) I mention, with less detail, the existence of issues.

Thanks for your courteous response.  Due apologies for having misinterpreted you:  Your post came right after mine, and I filled in the blanks a bit in trying to figure out what you meant.

I will here reply only to a few points you raised—not to chop up what you said or to take it out of context, but because they are interesting points to discuss.

[...] I think we are somewhat blind to the magnitude of achievement that Satoshi whoever he/she/they are/were.  Not with the specifics, but with the broad brush.  

I am not blind to it.  I view Satoshi’s achievements with a mixture of awe, and kicking myself with “why didn’t I think of that?”—for as so many truly great achievements, the creative idea of repurposing Hashcash to resolve a distributed consensus separate from a currency token looks obvious in hindsight.  Only in hindsight—only when we know the answer.  Before that, the question looks impossible—if we even know the right question to ask, as so often we don’t.  Someone had to see what nobody did.  Every invention that we take for granted started out as one individual’s vision to make the impossible a reality.

It is nowadays fashionable in some quarters to deprecate those achievements.  People who couldn’t and didn’t think of it will demand humility, and impose a pretense that everyone is just like everyone else—a mass of precious snowflakes.  Petty hatred befalls those who stand apart from the crowd, and worse unto geniuses.  Such jealousy is horrifically ugly.  I do not want anyone to misinterpret me as belittling or minimizing Satoshi’s achievements.

On the other hand, I balance that against (a) also properly recognizing the achievements of those who have come after Satoshi, and (b) avoiding the type of Satoshi-worship that leads to bad ends—in the worst case, opening the opportunity for imposters to gain instant followers by claiming “Satoshi’s Vision”.

For comparison, in the sciences, I have seen some debate about the proper place of, say, Isaac Newton.  I have seen arguments to the effect that Newton wasn’t so great, after all—that physics is just something that emerges from many different minds, without needing an occasional push by a giant.  I find that objectionable.

I recognize Newton as having advanced the state of the art in ways that no one else did at the time.  I accord him his proper place in history.  But I don’t see Newton as some sort of a god.  I recognize that his achievements are, by today’s standards, quite rudimentary—they even seem primitive.  They seem that way, because he laid new foundations in classical mechanics on which others later built great edifices.  I greatly admire those who came after Newton, too.

So as with Satoshi.

My analogy of Satoshi to Newton probably indicates that I am not blind to the magnitude of his achievements.

[...] I would think there would need to be a lot of testing done even before it got to the point it was before the genesis block.  And sometimes I wonder if a team of folks was indeed behind it... And that LOTS of work was done before the initial release...  I just find it astonishing what Sartoshi managed to do.

I doubt the widespread theory of a Satoshi team.  His work bore too much the imprint of one individual’s hands; and moreover, he made mistakes that a well-resourced professional team would probably avoid.  For example, I think that any hypothetical “Team Satoshi” would probably have at least one professional cryptographer onboard.  A cryptographer would not have designed a protocol with malleable transactions—yes, I will keep harping on that!  It is a known class of vulnerability.  If you familiarize yourself with the development of open-source cryptographic protocols, you will find public discussions in which professional cryptographers actively search for malleability of authenticated messages in their own work; where it matters (and it does matter here), they treat it as a serious security flaw.  This indicates to me that Satoshi was probably a lone individual who was not himself a professional cryptographer, and who was working in isolation before he announced Bitcoin to the world.

Bitcoin’s design also has some idiosyncrasies—for example, the obsessive use of double-hashing everywhere.  It is mostly harmless, and much less annoying than the urban legends about why Bitcoin does that.  (I have been intending to rebut that nonsense in the tech forum:  It cannot be to protect against length extension attacks in places where length extension attacks would be impossible.)  The simple answer—in my opinion, the most likely answer:  Double-hashing is just the type of thing that an amateur cryptographer, even an intelligent one, may do to try to strengthen the system.  (I make that judgment while acknowledging my own status as “not a Real Cryptographer(TM)”:  Fools know it all, but wisdom is to know one’s own limitations.)

It is remarkable that one individual took on a project of this scope, and completed it all the way to a functional alpha release by himself.  Remarkable—but not impossible, and not even improbable if we recognize that Satoshi was smart, motivated, self-disciplined, and hardworking.  There exist other projects of large scope that were created by one non-anonymous individual alone.  Most people can’t pull that off—some people can.

At that, indeed, I think that assuming it was group work unfairly minimizes Satoshi’s achievement.  Of course, I can’t prove it wasn’t a group effort—but I think it was done by one alone, by one with much higher abilities than most people have.  If you assume he was at least in the top 0.1% of talent, a very low standard for someone who makes an historic achievement, then it is not even surprising that he did it alone.

I am not sure if your point about cult like stuff had anything to do with my odd post.

It came right after my post on that subject, exuded hostility towards an unspecified party, and said in what seemed to me to be quasi-religious terms that Satoshi’s creation of Bitcoin was “miraculous” (quote-unquote).  I looked around at other posts, puzzled over it for awhile, then decided that you must be arguing with me.  If I misinterpreted that, my misunderstanding was understandable.

But I would agree that is not helpful.  MP was a weirdo.  And similarly the various scammers in crypto have leveraged that kind of stuff for their gain.  I am not terribly comfortable when people talk about Bitcoin as if it were a new religion...

Agreed.  Especially when someone does New Age style pitching the woo about “the Bible, The Vedic Samhitas, The Tao Te Ching”, then turns to preaching that Bitcoin is a blind, irrational leap of faith.  (Well, he didn’t put it that way.  I am translating the essay to more honest terms.)

But you must make one exception for me.  My esoteric knowledge of divine Bitcoin is the One True Way!  Margin-buying sinners, be forewarned of Bitcoin’s wrath! Wink

Bitcoin, please forgive me.
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June 11, 2022, 12:53:06 AM

What concerns me:  Bitcoin hovered generally around $39k–41k for awhile, sometimes dipping to the $38k range and sometimes jumping as high as $42k, in the time period before it was very suddenly pushed down to $30k and below.  (Note use of passive voice.)

Now, $10k lower...

(No 3 Buddies.)
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