Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Oh gawd.. not you too..    

I recognize that you are probably not referring to me specifically, even though you had an @JJG in your earlier post.. but I should respond to clarify anyhow by saying that you should already somewhat realize my system, and I have posted regarding some of my deviations from my system without trying to give too many details.. but still you likely have some ideas about how I have been rolling with these matters, unless you are worried about my having had not sold enough? and worried about my having had bought too many at too high of prices?  

Genuine recommendation overall or gloating or trolling?  

You likely already realize that if you transition into a tone that appears to be cheering down, then you are likely going to get some backlash from some of us folks.. whether we are frustrated or not.. but even if I am not personally frustrated, I am still likely going to get mad for the mere sake of it for anyone who seems to be cheering for down.. or even seems to be cheering that down has happened.

Absolutely not cheering for down, brother. I am still majorly bitcoin invested, net worth wise. Probably something like 90% bitcoin, if we want to calculate real estate, stocks, bonds & stuff. I’m just saying what I see it though, it looks like down before up.

OK maybe I’ll secretly enjoy buying cheap coins but it doesn’t change how I think this will play out. The world economy is a mess, we’re going into a deep recession. Everything is going to tank but this is where us smart dudes prosper where idiots fall.

Lower lows, crab market with slight uppity until we hit the halving at $40,000 or something. Bull run starts & we’re well into 6 figures (USD) by end of 2025.

Bearish as this may sound, I believe that's exactly how it's going to play out.

Key words (as always): HoDL and/or BTFD.

Can we replace some of these bearish bulls with ones who are more bullish?

The majority says down before UP, so it must be true..  

...Lower lows, crab market with slight uppity until we hit the halving...

the question is, when will the lower lows stop and turn into crab market... (aka bottom in)

I changed your above quote because it was supposed to be a quote from LFC rather than AlcoHoDL (your original mistaken quote)..

For sure we are in a bear market so the odds for down might seem to be slightly greater than the odds for UP, but surely even with being in a bear market, that still does not mean that for sure we have to go down before UP.. even if if there is decently good odds for such.

So one thing is the placement of odds, but then another thing would be starting to talk about scenarios as if they are certain to happen, even if they might happen to fall into the category of being the most (or more) likely of scenarios, but any break in any leg of a set of scenarios with several legs may well end up screwing up the subsequent legs within any multi-leg prediction, and the screw up could end up affecting the magnitude of the difference in the prediction or the time in which it happens (or both).

Surely I cannot deny that there could be some value to get some kind of a target price by a certain date (such as $40k by the next halvening), and then consider that the various legs between such happening are largely noise, because that can be a decent tentative framework too that does not necessarily get too caught upon the details of how it ends up happening.. but then it still has a bit of a grating effect on me when those target dates for certain prices end up having higher levels of certainty than they seem to deserve (even if they might end up being the most likely of scenarios).  

For sure, several of us are repeating in discussing these kinds of themes, and surely since we are in a public thread that involves newbies ongoingly coming in, and even each of us are changing in our perspectives and spins of our perspective, so I don't see too many problems in repeating themes over and over and over.. and if any of you are too bored with my repetition or even the repetition of others, then that's the reason that god invented scroll wheels, even if you might be too fucking poor to buy a new mouse... fuck off poor peeps.. don't you have any trash cans that you can rummage for a "new" mouse?.. and yeah, new ramen is just as good when it is not exactly "new" too, sometimes.  Everything no does not have to be "new, new."  Don't you know nuttin?

[1715306423]

1715306423

[1715306423]

1715306423

[1715306423]

1715306423

[1715306423]

1715306423

[Toxic2040]

[Paashaas]

Synthetic embryos made without sperm or egg formed brain, beating heart: study.

Two teams of scientists have independently created synthetic mouse embryos in a lab without using eggs or sperm cells in a major leap forward for the field of developmental and stem cell biology.

Scientists were able to nurture these embryos to form a brain, a beating heart and the foundations for all other organs in the body.

These man-made embryos could have massive implications for the future of medicine, as scientists seek to apply their findings to human embryos and use them to grow organs for transplant at a time when more than 4,000 Canadians are currently on a wait-list for organ donations. The recent advancements may also help researchers investigate what causes some pregnancies to fail and could help pinpoint specific genes that cause developmental disorders and birth defects.

One of the teams behind this groundbreaking advancement was helmed by Prof. Magdalena Zernicka-Goetz, a developmental biologist from the University of Cambridge. Her team used stem cells from a mouse to create a synthetic embryo that they were able to keep alive for 8.5 days, according to a Cambridge press release. Full mouse gestation takes about 20 days.

“Our mouse embryo model not only develops a brain, but also a beating heart, all the components that go on to make up the body,” Zernicka-Goetz said. “It’s just unbelievable that we’ve got this far. This has been the dream of our community for years, and a major focus of our work for a decade, and finally we’ve done it.”

The findings from Zernicka-Goetz’s team were published in Nature on Aug. 25 while a second team of researchers from Israel published similar results in Cell on Aug. 1.

[Gachapin]

...Lower lows, crab market with slight uppity until we hit the halving...

the question is, when will the lower lows stop and turn into crab market... (aka bottom in)

...I changed your above quote because it was supposed to be a quote from LFC rather than AlcoHoDL (your original mistaken quote)..

thanks. corrected....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

[JayJuanGee]

...Lower lows, crab market with slight uppity until we hit the halving...

the question is, when will the lower lows stop and turn into crab market... (aka bottom in)

Between now & end of Q2 2023.

Whoaza!!!!

I am feeling faint.. and I am not sure if I can handle it...

 

Lower lows, crab market with slight uppity until we hit the halving at $40,000 or something. Bull run starts & were well into 6 figures (USD) by end of 2025.

One day some nerds from the 3-year future are going to read this post and wonder why the hell they didn't buy BTC when it was so cheap.

3 years?

You too?




I am feeling overwhelmingly fainteninged..  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hyperjacked]

Do we have an MT Gox creditors in da house? I'm not sure where I register my info for payment...
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/mt-gox-bitcoin-settlement-payouts-9-billion-dollars-early-2022-2021-11

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Frankly, I'm not in a very positive mood when looking at the current price performance.

But the mere fact that most perma bulls (including me) seem to be in such a mood, short to mid-term, lets me speculate that we might not get the bear everyone is preparing for.  (yes... might...)


Bob's dream of a new ATH in October is definitely a lethal golden shot of hopium...  but I won't rule out a quick turn around calling an end to our standard cycle pattern.  

Many people expect a bear as usual, based on the previous cycles...  But we already saw this cycle to be different:  
We had a premature top. And after the decline of 55% to under 29k (when people called a bear), we got another ATH...  quite different...
now, people are even arguing where to put this cycle's top...  

So the argument for this time being different is already strong.

Sure, it could be a just a standard cycle from here on.  But it was not standard at the run-up, so why would it turn standard from here on...?  (past predicts the future, right? if you believe that)


In short:
I'm leaning towards the view that this cycle was and also will be different.  
And of course that includes the possibility that it turns out to be worse than the cycles before..  and in some aspects it already did:
last cycle's ATH broken, 200WMA disregarded...
But I feel SOMA these negative aspects are a fake-out and that this bear will be better than everyone expects it to be, right now...
hopium microdosing here

[Gachapin]

Do we have an MT Gox creditors in da house? I'm not sure where I register my info for payment...
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/mt-gox-bitcoin-settlement-payouts-9-billion-dollars-early-2022-2021-11

registration closed long time ago

[Hyperjacked]

Do we have an MT Gox creditors in da house? I'm not sure where I register my info for payment...
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/mt-gox-bitcoin-settlement-payouts-9-billion-dollars-early-2022-2021-11

registration closed long time ago

Ouch... thanks 😂 I've been offline and haven't been up with the times.
They sent me a letter a couple years ago... never thought we would get anything anyway and burnt it.
Cheers and be back in a couple years for the next halving bull run.

[Arriemoller]

Ukraine has been on an offensive for almost a week now, they are pushing forward some 10 to 25 km a day, that's incredible. Any pockets or small towns they can't take right away is simply bypassed and left for the rear troops to clear up, they are on a roll. Go Ukraine.

Guy sitting in a vehicle crossing a river on a pontoom bridge when Ukraine shells it, some of the last audible words on the video is "god please have mercy". Well, now we know whos side god is on.
https://mobile.twitter.com/just_whatever/status/1567582959800033280

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aesma]

Lower lows, crab market with slight uppity until we hit the halving at $40,000 or something. Bull run starts & were well into 6 figures (USD) by end of 2025.

One day some nerds from the 3-year future are going to read this post and wonder why the hell they didn't buy BTC when it was so cheap.

Not just nerds. Plenty of people including ones that already own BTC. From the future you can't really grasp the risk/reward equation facing people now. If a 5 fold price rise was guaranteed...it would have already happened, basically, people would be buying and the price would go up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cryptolove20015]

BREAKING: Jack Dorsey and Jay-Z to gift $340,000 in bitcoin to academy students in New York.

Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1567655846468882432

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation