Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

*yawn*

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Observing $19,433 & twiddling my thumbs during an expected, long term boring crab market. I wish bitcoin would break up hard or even in the opposite direction so I can gobble up loads of cheap coins (obviously preference is up).

It’s just, the current price does nothing for any of us. There is no way I am selling a single satoshi at this price. I have bought a big % of what I sold in 2021 back already but I am sitting on a pile of fiat now, unwilling to buy more. It either dumps to make me buy more or I keep that fiat.

So any way yeah, just willing bitcoin to do SOMETHING so I can do something positive

Feels like we’ve been stuck between $18,000 & $23,500 for ages. This is not unexpected though, the way it should go if we are repeating past cycles is, one more dump, an awful capitulation to about $12,000 to $14,000 which causes suicidal thoughts & more mindrust’s. Mainstream media says it’s over, everybody thinks we’re going to $0. This is what forms cycle bottoms, could happen between now & mid 2023. Then we start to slowly climb up, maybe reach the halving in mid 2024 at $30,000 to $40,000. Still boring but with a slight upwards trajectory we plod to the end of 2024. 2025 comes & we start to break upwards, memes & green dildos everywhere we see a new ATH. Couple of pullbacks mid 2025 but then we power to over $150,000 by the end of 2025 as the cycle top & then the cycle starts all over again.

Are you ready?

Yeah, this seems like a consensus for most...which makes it unlikely to happen.
Personally, I see two other possibilities, depending on overall macro:

1. More likely time-wise (Scenario 1): Despite their current pronouncements, Fed is going to pivot at the end of 2022 or by the end of Q1 2023 and this would mark the start of the bull in bitcoin. From what price? Unknowable, but your numbers are certainly possible. If this happens as described, we should go close to max long by April 2023 and stay there.

2. Scenario 2: dark times. It's hard to discuss it, but if macro will turn depression-like, bitcoin would (at least initially) turn sideways and/or down and the price could become highly volatile and, basically, random. In this scenario, we are in 2007 and the main volatility is ahead. Yes, BOE made some moves and bought itself time, but as we know from 2007, these "small" moves only work for a limited time duration (the rescue of Countrywide in US in the summer of 2007 did not prevent Bear Stearns and Lehman 6-10 mo later). My allocation of probability to this scenario is still less than 20%, but is rising, unfortunately. In this scenario, the bottom is unpredictable, but once everyone start printing en masse and implement yield control, bitcoin should revitalize and go to ATH, eventually.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

....

Yeah I watched a few met world series losses over the years.

It sucks to lose a big lead.

Yeah but how about when they won in 1986?   Was a huge Red Sox fan back then. It hurt bad.

RIP Bill Buckner ....because you had none after this happened.......oof


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18caPNisP2U

yeah that was pretty cool made up for felix milan error against the a’s

we would would have been worst record to ever win the world series.

1973 mets tug mcgraw and “ you gotta believe.”

[Rahul09]

The top 100 richest Bitcoin    addresses hold a total of 2,982,783 $BTC worth $57.9 billion.

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1579022680371912705?t=YPkeDae0Lfv0tdRjxEXmSg&s=19

[Inwestour]

I'm still not sure if 17.5K was the first bottom corresponding to 5.8K in 2018, or the second bottom 3.1K in late 2018. Anyway, we should have some dead cat bounces to 30K-ish, or even 40K-ish before the next big bull run. Hopefully the tradition will be kept and we see 100K+ in 2025. Meanwhile, I continue DCAing but very cautiously. I wouldn't risk too much buying right now, since another big crash is quite possible in the next 1-2 years.

Unfortunately for me, I don't have the skills to sell high and buy low, so I actually buy higher than I've sold. I don't gamble of course, I sell only for what I need and plan to do. When I'm done, I use the new salary to replenish my stash albeit buying a bit higher most of the time. Because I don't want to gamble, I buy regularly with my fiat savings ignoring the current price movements.

In general, I'm dissatisfied with my stash, since I missed a lot of opportunities to buy under 1K and sell something above 50K. So, I will have to wait another 2 years at least for prices above 100K to pursue my bigger goals - buying a real estate and installing photovoltaic panels with asic miners. Thus I will not only have the profit from my Bitcoin stash but a regular income which will allow me to quit my job if I want to. But for now, I will not only keep my current job, but I am in the process of getting a second job. Both can be combined easily, since they are not physically demanding. So, if the price is below 50K until 2025, I will probably get closer to the number which is needed for my plans. I have a small reserve, just in case another crash happens, and then for sure I will get to that number.

So, even though I'm not a skilled trader, with the pre-meditated and pre-planned strategy, I am always theoretically in a win-win situation. But in the real life, my emotions can get in the way. I'm not talking about mindrusting during a crash, but rather mindrusting during a pump under 100K. For me, anything under 100K zone is a no go! Any mistake there and I can say good bye to all my plans and fail miserably. So, any gambling is out of question for me!

My situation is somewhat similar, I try to buy at the current price, regardless of the situation on the market. I'm not good at trading and I'm not good at waiting for the lowest levels to buy bitcoin, instead I buy whenever I can. Now I work more than usual so that I can buy more bitcoin, and besides the fact that I now have very little free time but sometimes I look for more opportunities to earn money, this may not be a second job, because I already work a lot.

I also think that we may not have been at the bottom yet and we are still waiting for strong failures, but I don’t think that the fall will continue until 2025, I think that in 2024 the market will already start to grow and until then we should try to buy more bitcoin. It's hard to say where the price might fall, but it doesn't make much difference to me, because I will continue to buy, as I do now. I can only say that if the price continues to fall, then it will be good, because I will be able to buy more bitcoin for the same money.

And my goal is very similar, I want my investments to help me become financially independent, and now I believe that this is possible.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Winter approaches
Are you cold and lonely now?
So what, bring it on!

[...]

A Bitcoin HoDLer,
is neither cold, nor lonely!
Bitcoin fixed all that.

Merit whores galore...
Scouring Twitter for smart quotes.
Do you suck dick too?

The best thread of all.
It will keep you, or spit you.
Or rusty pipe you!

#keepingthefaith

[philipma1957]

The top 100 richest Bitcoin    addresses hold a total of 2,982,783 $BTC worth $57.9 billion.

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1579022680371912705?t=YPkeDae0Lfv0tdRjxEXmSg&s=19

and how many are exchange addresses?

[Toxic2040]

A Bitcoin HoDLer,
is neither cold, nor lonely!
Bitcoin fixed all that.

Merit whores galore...
Scouring Twitter for smart quotes.
Do you suck dick too?

The best thread of all.
It will keep you, or spit you.
Or rusty pipe you!

#keepingthefaith

+10 WOsMerits

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mRTHroo]

price comparison; same price

You enjoy seeing it...

check price, same price

you love to see it…

BTCTC

[Hamza2424]

https://twitter.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1579162351588495360?t=mPCCk3Dyml8VCG-LVViVJw&s=19


https://twitter.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1579190506676170753?t=mPCCk3Dyml8VCG-LVViVJw&s=19

STH<LTH as per analysis done by the PlanC. The Cost basis Cross 🤞 i am not familiar with this Data analysis still from the provided details as this cross can be an indication to the bottom in real.... As per many indicators confirmed bottom before this one doubt still exists.


Now What the Wo community wants to comment on the bottom. I know a few months ago this was confusing for me the image is getting clear at least after the Month of September. I am sure about it the gut feelings of the bottom confirmation.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

this is pretty cool   not bitcoin...still...neat fx and production

Volatility, visualised
https://twitter.com/i/status/1579204567140798466

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1579204189443555329/pu/vid/632x360/UnFIjTDwIwuvGWYa.mp4

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

weekly ma's and s/r before the weekly candle close

dyor


stronghands