Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rehan Zakir]

Bitcoin 'nuke' warning as Fed rate hike.



BTC's price has managed to cling on to $19,000 with a modest daily gain of 1.33% . Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback's strength versus a pool of top foreign currencies, rose to 110.86, the highest level in 20 years.



The Federal Reserve is poised to discuss how far it could raise its benchmark lending rates to curb record inflation. Interestingly, the market expects the U.S. central bank to hike rates by 75 or 100 basis points (bps). The ramification of higher interest rates will likely result in a lower appetite for riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, the U.S. dollar will serve as the go-to safe haven for investors escaping risk-on assets "There seems no reason for the Fed to soften the hawkishness shown at the recent Jackson Hole symposium, and a [0.75 percentage point] 'hawkish hike' should keep the dollar near its highs of the year," analysts at ING told the Financial Times.

Independent market analyst PostyXBT argues that a 100 bps rate can "nuke" Bitcoin below its current technical support of $18,800. He also suggests that BTC has a good chance of recovery if the rate hike turns out to be lower than expected, or 50 bps.
These speculations echo general rate hike expectations. John Kicklighter, the chief strategist at DailyFX, notes that a 50 bps rate hike would be bullish for the U.S. benchmark stock market index. Nonetheless, a 100 bps rate hike would be extremely bearish for the S&P 500. This could be equally problematic for Bitcoin, whose correlation with stocks has been consistently positive since December 2021.

The U.S. economy suffered two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. Moreover, its manufacturing PMI pointed to the slowest growth in factory activity since July 2020. Meanwhile, the two-year U.S.Treasury returns have crossed above the 10-year U.S. Treasury returns, plotting a yield curve.

Information source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-nuke-warning-as-fed-rate-hike-decision-looms-dollar-index-hits-20-year-high

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[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I know, I'm in the right thread.

It's good that you verified.. Just seems that yours truly has to keep on checking on you, and you are wanting attention?

It's just me talking about the btc situation. I am not saying for sure that btc will come to 16k.

I am glad that you are not saying for sure, because you might then need more than a batslapping and perhaps a baby shaking, instead.... (not advocating the harm of any babies - and even xzy887 would merely be shooken within this contemplated scenario)

actually btc is only hovering between 19k to 22k this year.

What's the significance?  BTC price goes up and BTC price goes down, and from time to time it hovers in the area in which it happens to be.  So? what are you wanting to say?  The BTC price has been largely between $19k and $22k for the past 3 months.. so what?  Shit happens.

And this year I can't see any improvement in Btc.

We have had a lot of tick tock and the next block for the whole year.  Sure there have been some blocks that were slower and some blocks that were faster, but on average those blocks were coming out every 10 minutes.  Are any improvements needed beyond that?

How long will Btc hold 19k?

Does not seem like a very stable location to me.  I am surprised that we have already been here for about 3 months..  Who would a thunk?  But here we are hanging out in these price territories. for longer than expected, and many of us did not even think that we would be coming here.. but once we are here, it becomes part of our current situation.

Perhaps the better of the answers would just to sum up the movement from the current status (or not) as soon^tm?

If the Btc doesn't go up, then there will be a possibility of it going down.

That makes a lot of sense, and I would give higher odds to either up or down rather than to sideways.. but it could go sideways if we want to exhaust all of the price direction possibilities.

Bears are trying to keep the price under 19k very hard...

Tell me more.

Do you have any more extensive (deeper) analysis  about our current situation?  how we got here and where we might be going?

I am not saying for sure that btc will come to 16k.

Have you received any news? Usually it depends on the news. How can you be sure that the price of Bitcoin will come to 16k$ without getting news? Btc Major support 18k$
Btc major resistance 20.5k$.

More, MOre.. MOAR..

Pray tell!

[BobLawblaw]

Just wait to see how much bitcoin deere charges to replace a muffler on that

Already paid $1000 for the first service on the 325G.

The Gators are nice because they are roll-caged vehicles with seatbelts, that can comfortably transport 4 people around at once.

Also, I'm not driving like a fucking retard out there. Already tipped the trackloader over once already, so learning to really slow things down out there in the field, and keep the center of gravity as low as possible during transport. No sudden stops while carrying a load sorta deal. Fun stuff to learn while safely harnessed into this sort of machinery working on (mostly) flat ground. Sates my mech-pilot urges... for now...

EDIT: Yep, this is the good stuff right here. Hard to unintentionally be a retard in one.

Amen. Here's mine.

If I take a load of gravel in the hydraulic dumper on every trip out to the lake, before long the trail will be a road.

[Piesel]

.
 Either the man is really a bit stupid, or he is just an ordinary manipulator.

Manipulator 100% verified.
“Either stupid or manipulator”. Why not both?

No one listens to that crap anymore, he is just fooling around, as usual, he knows he is less relevant and outdated with wack with no knowledge of what Bitcoin stands for!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

[xzy887]

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah. That's not rocket science to understand why Bitcoin is far better than fiat.
But, there is always some Dick-Head around us like Jamie Dimon. You won't be able to explain or make them understand.

Well the thing about "better" is that it's subjective; Bitcoin is definitely not "better" than fiat for Jamie Dimon and his ilk.

Bitcoin is also not better if you would like to spend it quickly... or if you would like to get rid of it..  most of the time..

Most of the time, I would like to get rid of my fiat rather than holding onto it.. especially in recent times...

Sure they say that cash is king during these kinds of uncertain times, but if I am going to spend anything, then I will spend from the cash pile first...the vast majority of time..

If there were more ways to spend my lil precious, I would not mind spending some or even a lot of them (relatively speaking), but I am not that excited to spend any below or even near the 200-week moving average.. Now if we were closer to the 200-week moving average (which is currently $23,363) or even if we were closer to the 100-week moving average (which is currently close to $37,600) .. I would be a bit more eager to spend some of them.. . mind you that I don't tend to sell (or spend) very high portions of my lil fiend without replacing them.. but within my system, if the BTC price is going up and then getting above certain thresholds, then my threshold for parting with relatively modest quantities goes up in somewhat proportional ways... ..

If we have been in bitcoin for a while (and yes you are likely in such groupening, Homer bomer - at least 6 months longer than this here cat, no?), then likely we are not suffering and we are not going to suffer for lack of material goods/wants, but sometimes we still might be forced into some variations of delayed gratification (like in our earlier bitcoin days) because of the current prices of our lil fiends being in a kind of challenging and even quite low location based on the longer term averages. It just seems like inspiration to NOT be spending too many cornz (and even to be buying more - even when we might have thought that we were done buying cornz) just because of where we happen to be in these here current times (that hopefully are not going to be lasting for too many more months - so we can get this show back on the road to where it seemingly "should" be, rather than where it happens to be).

[OutOfMemory]

Just wait to see how much bitcoin deere charges to replace a muffler on that

Already paid $1000 for the first service on the 325G.

The Gators are nice because they are roll-caged vehicles with seatbelts, that can comfortably transport 4 people around at once.

Also, I'm not driving like a fucking retard out there. Already tipped the trackloader over once already, so learning to really slow things down out there in the field, and keep the center of gravity as low as possible during transport. No sudden stops while carrying a load sorta deal. Fun stuff to learn while safely harnessed into this sort of machinery working on (mostly) flat ground. Sates my mech-pilot urges... for now...

EDIT: Yep, this is the good stuff right here. Hard to unintentionally be a retard in one.

Amen. Here's mine.

If I take a load of gravel in the hydraulic dumper on every trip out to the lake, before long the trail will be a road.

Oops, i thought you were talking tractors 
Looks like a fun ride, though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

the noon wall report


bitcoins price is up this morning on heavy volume and is currently trading near $19.3kish
central banks around the world continue to raise interest rates with the Bank of England saying the country is now in recession
the Swiss also raised rates by 75bp pulling out of negative territory for the first time since 2015
the yield curve on the 10yr>2yr tbill is inverting with heavy front loading on the short term
all dire warning for the legacy markets imho
what does this mean for bitcoin?  well...im not sure...conventional wisdom would suggest there could be further capitulation as fiscal tightening is felt across the economies
it could also be that people realise bitcoin might be one of the only safe havens over the next several years...even better...realise that the power nation states have over your financial sovereignty must be curtailed no matter the cost
I also think that bitcoins general adoption and specifically institutional in '23....as these hedges become better positioned, will carry bitcoin past the worst of things if there is a significant recession globally

there is only twenty one million...and a lot of people are starting to want one

so there is that

dyor

4h


D

stronghands

[Biodom]

DXY ($ index)-a big winner this year (so far) +15% (more if you had an interest bearing account).
Compare with -21.6% for S&P 500 (yes i know, even worse than this for bitcoin).
Cash is king...for now (still hodling, though, like a stubborn person I am).

[ginsan]

Most of the time, I would like to get rid of my fiat rather than holding onto it.. especially in recent times...

Obviously it's better and I agree with your opinion. what you dream of holding only a piece of money for years, of course its value will be lost by several factors such as inflation that cannot be stopped. but you are lucky if you hold 1 BTC for years to come because we know the longer the BTC will be difficult to get due to the limited supply. therefore shop wisely and manage your money for valuable assets in the years to come.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[Richy_T]

My horse riding days are behind me. Getting older and don't want to risk a Christopher Reeve kinda situation. Safer to drive around the property on a 4 wheeler John Deere Gator.

So are you more of an Ozzy Osbourne or Rik Mayall kind of guy?


(Edit: Saw the pic you posted so withdraw the sentiment but I'm leaving it up anyway).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

Don't forget "Pi Hole Coiner"....that would be yours truly...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation