Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

What was the largest dip in anything that was then recovered above the prior ATH?
Here are my recollections (sorry, some utterances will be shitcoins just for their historical record):

1. AMZN, went down 95% in 2000-2001, went way up the prior ATH, took 7-8 years.
2. GME, down 95% between 2008 and 2020, then 116X.
3. AMC, down 94% between 2015 and 2020, then 28X.
4. TLRY, first long dip 97.5%, then 17X up (did not reach the ATH), then another 96% down (total down from the ATH to ATL was 98.1%), we shall see how it goes.
2. AAPL went down 82.5% between 1991 and 1998 (that bear seemed endless), got rescued by S. Jobs, now a biggest company (or one of top three).
3. ETH (see the disclaimer above) went down 95% inside 2018, ATH in 2021, 59X from the low.
4. ADA (see the same disclaimer) went down 98.4% in 2017-2020, new ath in 2021, 150X from the low.

I have never seen something/anything that declined more then 99% (not counting oil futures going to negative value) coming back to exceed the ATH, but would be interested if such situation existed.
Apart from ADA, 95% seems to be the most "something" declined before reaching a new ATH.

What i am getting at: at $1000 (someone suggested this number as a remote possibility), it would be about 98.5% down. 95% would be $3445, a match to march 2020 "mindrust wick"
If less than that 98.5-99%, then there are no records to suggest that recovery is possible (it appears to never happen before, unless you can find such record, without counting bankruptcy cases).

So, crying would be kind of appropriate, as in crying for ALL of humanity, imho, not just bitcoin (at or below $1000).

Besides your shitcoin talk..

I hope in relation to SBF, bro.
"if you prick us, do we not bleed?"

you cannot learn everything there is to learn about bitcoin by talking only about bitcoin.
Example: FTX debacle is outsize of btc domain, mostly, yet it keeps affecting it...just look at your wallet.

[HI-TEC99]

What was the largest dip in anything that was then recovered above the prior ATH?
Here are my recollections (sorry, some utterances will be shitcoins just for their historical record):

1. AMZN, went down 95% in 2000-2001, went way up the prior ATH, took 7-8 years.
2. GME, down 95% between 2008 and 2020, then 116X.
3. AMC, down 94% between 2015 and 2020, then 28X.
4. TLRY, first long dip 97.5%, then 17X up (did not reach the ATH), then another 96% down (total down from the ATH to ATL was 98.1%), we shall see how it goes.
2. AAPL went down 82.5% between 1991 and 1998 (that bear seemed endless), got rescued by S. Jobs, now a biggest company (or one of top three).
3. ETH (see the disclaimer above) went down 95% inside 2018, ATH in 2021, 59X from the low.
4. ADA (see the same disclaimer) went down 98.4% in 2017-2020, new ath in 2021, 150X from the low.

I have never seen something/anything that declined more then 99% (not counting oil futures going to negative value) coming back to exceed the ATH, but would be interested if such situation existed.
Apart from ADA, 95% seems to be the most "something" declined before reaching a new ATH.

What i am getting at: at $1000 (someone suggested this number as a remote possibility), it would be about 98.5% down. 95% would be $3445, a match to march 2020 "mindrust wick"
If less than that 98.5-99%, then there are no records to suggest that recovery is possible (it appears to never happen before, unless you can find such record, without counting bankruptcy cases).

So, crying would be kind of appropriate, as in crying for ALL of humanity, imho, not just bitcoin (at or below $1000).

Besides your shitcoin talk..

I hope in relation to SBF, bro.
"if you prick us, do we not bleed?"

you cannot learn everything there is to learn about bitcoin by talking only about bitcoin.
Example: FTX debacle is outsize of btc domain, mostly, yet it keeps affecting it...just look at your wallet.

We were warned about it in advance.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2022/06/28/bankman-fried-some-crypto-exchanges-already-secretly-insolvent/

I was only joking about the batslap.

In relation to SBF I think this is more appropriate than a slap.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LDL]

Satoshi Nakamoto told the truth...



SATOSHI NAKAMOTO. ₿ANKING THE UN₿ANKED SINCE 2009. store.bitcoinmagazine.com/collections/sa…

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1590089001217953792?s=19

[Biodom]

CZ says that other players will fail in the next couple of weeks...should be done by the end of Nov, I guess.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/binances-ceo-warns-crypto-crisis-is-not-over

I wish kucoin survives this....binance as well, sure.
In US-Coinbase, Kraken and Gemini.
Don't really care about anyone else.

my fingers are getting itchy, though, not to sell, but to buy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Unknown Op]

The most notable events in previous week:

🔖 Bitcoin tested below $16,000

🔖 FTX filed for bankruptcy and Sam Bankman-Fried resigned

🔖 Huobi accused the pNetwork team of "malicious behavior" in the GALA incident

🔖 Court recognizes startup LBRY tokens as securities

🔖 Developers add crosschain bridge aggregator to MetaMask

🔖 Changpeng Zhao warned of a "cascading" crisis in the crypto industry

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

I've just received an email from Kraken, with the usual "your funds are safe, we keep our coins 1:1" message. I don't have any significant amount of coins in there (just some leftovers from moving whole amounts of coins out to my Trezor), but I guess the email gets sent to all registered users.

Personally, I don't think Kraken is at serious risk of collapsing in the manner of FTX/Celsius, and I would be very surprised if this happened. But one can never be too careful when it comes to coin custody. So, even with Kraken, and as always, I would apply the "not your keys, not your coins" rule.

Be extra careful, WOers. It's one thing to be a nocoiner, but quite another to become a nocoiner. The pain is orders of magnitude greater.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Thought of letting y'all know... I lost a lot at FTX. Like really, A LOT. For a long long time, I won't be in a position to re-enter BTC. I'm so done.

"Not your keys, not your coins"

At the end of the day, I think y'all outperformed me. It'd not have happened if it weren't for Sam, though. But... whatever.

Sorry to hear this, brother. I don’t have anything that will make you feel any better.

You are alive, healthy & strong. You have your health, surround yourself by friends, family, good people. Work hard & you can succeed with anything you put your mind to.

Maybe you can join a signature campaign & earn little bits of corn, just save it for retirement. Even 0.05BTC could be a good nest at retirement age probably. I know it’s heartbreaking now but a hedge against the fiat system is a good idea. Start small, maybe you’ll get your appetite back as time passes & you can work towards being a ‘whole coiner’.

I wish you the very best!

[AlcoHoDL]

WARNING: Extremely simplistic math predictions follow:

End-of-2017 ATH: $19666
End-of-2018 Bottom: $3122
ATH / Bottom Ratio: $19666 / $3122 = 6.3

4 years (a Halving) later...

End-of-2021 ATH: $69000
End-of-2022 Bottom (predicted): $69000 / 6.3 = $10952
ATH (2021) / ATH (2017) Ratio: $69000 / $19666  = 3.5

4 years (a Halving) later...

End-of-2025 ATH (predicted): $69000 x 3.5 = $241500

Bitstamp prices.

[shahzadafzal]

Wow that so simple like 1+1=2

Let me complete the cycle, may I?

WARNING: Extremely simplistic math predictions follow:

End-of-2017 ATH: $19666
End-of-2018 Bottom: $3122
ATH / Bottom Ratio: $19666 / $3122 = 6.3

4 years (a Halving) later...

End-of-2021 ATH: $69000
End-of-2022 Bottom (predicted): $69000 / 6.3 = $10952
ATH (2021) / ATH (2017) Ratio: $69000 / $19666  = 3.5

4 years (a Halving) later...

End-of-2025 ATH (predicted): $69000 x 3.5 = $241500
End-of-2026 Bottom (predicted): $241500 / 6.3 = $38333    <-------

Bitstamp prices.

[NeuroticFish]

ATH (2021) / ATH (2017) Ratio: $69000 / $19666  = 3.5

Since the numbers/ratios for the previous cycles are not 3.5 and 6.3, they will most probably not be 3.5/6.3 for current/future cycles either.
So the math is too simplistic and, sorry, but probably wrong.

[hisslyness]

Operation: Bring Them Home - MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

It has been a very long time since I had full custody of all my Bitcoins. Well 99.9% of them.

Still waiting on a small amount to be reactivated at BitFinex, withdrawal frozen for 5 days due to activation of LN-Bitcoin. Will send this directly to my LN Node

And a small DCA amount at my local exchange (the bulk has come home – read below) and yes there was a wee bit more than I should have had on there….
 
My problem started on 28th October, that really drummed the #NYKNYC home.

The local exchange I used here, been using their services since 2014. It had been 3 months since I had last logged in. I thought now would be a good time to setup some buy ladders and when I went to login, my account was locked out for some unknown reason.

Message was to contact support. Naturally I sent a support request and thought maybe I would get a reply in a few hours. A few hours went by, and not response, replied to the automated email, and waited and waited. Started to get a little worried. So I thought, I’ll call them, only to find there isn’t a phone number anymore. Remembered, I had an OTC Reps mobile number, rang it, and it was disconnected.

Alarms bells started going off! I googled and checked for any news about this exchange, there wasn’t anything alarming, but I still wasn’t happy with the lack of communications. I found their registered address and google street viewed them, only to find it was a mailing forwarding front. (Found out later it was to protect them. Due to scammers, they have been targets of death threats etc)

More hours spent trying to track employees and owners and their contact emails or phone numbers… no luck! I had names and emails (that bounced back, they must not allow external comms) but no active phone or mobile numbers…

I finally got a reply to the support query, this was 5 mins before close of business Friday, saying they locked my account because of suspicious activities and to request a call from one of their KYC Support Team.

WTF?.. ok I’ll play along, booked the next available time, 9:30am Monday, I waited and waited, no calls, no reply, no comms. Rebooked for 2pm and finally a call from a private number. Back and forth proving who I was and what I do, and I also made sure they were who they are and that we both were not trying to scam each other.

Found out they halted my account because I accidentally pressed on increase my deposit limit! They wanted to know why I wanted to increase my limit!.... and that they had locked it back in July, over three months ago! never bothered to contact me about it!..

Got back into my account and that was when Operation: Bring Them Home commenced!

Start generating new cold wallets. Logged and planned for the retrieval of all the outstanding SATs I had on of mining pools and exchanges I once traded my BCH/BTG and other shitty airdrops.

Then FTX happened!....

If it is one thing you get out of this whole FTX saga, I really hope it is #NYKNYC.

This must be ingrained in everyone Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy. BRING THEM HOME!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

ATH (2021) / ATH (2017) Ratio: $69000 / $19666  = 3.5

Since the numbers/ratios for the previous cycles are not 3.5 and 6.3, they will most probably not be 3.5/6.3 for current/future cycles either.
So the math is too simplistic and, sorry, but probably wrong.

You're probably right, but consider that Bitcoin is maturing, so things get progressively more stable and, dare I say, more predictable.

Will see how things play out.

[bitcoinPsycho]

About fucking time

https://cointelegraph.com/news/exchange-outflows-hit-historic-highs-as-bitcoin-investors-self-custody

[LFC_Bitcoin]

WARNING: Extremely simplistic math predictions follow:

End-of-2017 ATH: $19666
End-of-2018 Bottom: $3122
ATH / Bottom Ratio: $19666 / $3122 = 6.3

4 years (a Halving) later...

End-of-2021 ATH: $69000
End-of-2022 Bottom (predicted): $69000 / 6.3 = $10952
ATH (2021) / ATH (2017) Ratio: $69000 / $19666  = 3.5

4 years (a Halving) later...

End-of-2025 ATH (predicted): $69000 x 3.5 = $241500

Bitstamp prices.

I would gladly shake hands on the above scenario.