Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Uh oh.

[jojo69]

[Gachapin]

So ...

Just flow with me here for a sec... What if this whole FTX thing was really a set-up.  Powers that be come in... got SB-F hooked on SOMETHING.  Have you seen the videos of him vibrating like a diesel engine?  Then nudge him further and further into the red 'till they set up the collapse.  Have legislation ready in the countries they control to try to bring the whole thing down over a few weeks...

Nah.  Just a ponzi prolly.

I'm just going to quote this from time to time until I either come out dead wrong, or...

Well let's hope for dead wrong.

"Every day SBF is not behind bars, it becomes increasingly clear he served as an asset for the the intelligence establishment, used to severely stain public perception & impose overreaching regulations.
The meteoric ascension. The political connections. The anti PoW stance. Fed."

Dylan LeClair
https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1592328377465462786

[philipma1957]

Long-time no post, have been having a break from crypto while waiting to see where price goes while keeping an eye on latest events.

A few things I'm paying attention to right now:

• According to FTX bankruptcy filings, they don't hold any Bitcoin. Likely they never did. Therefore there won't be any future Bitcoin liquidations from this entity.
• Ie based on these proceedings, a sell-off of BTC from this exchange can be ruled out, unlike like 3AC/Luna liquidations that forced prices lower.
• Quite likely another exchange falls as the bank run continues, as many already predict. Probably the exchanges people least expect.

A few points on price right now:

• Most speculators are again now expecting at least $14K, or more likely $12K, even $10K. Nothing has really changed here, only increased bearish conviction.
• To this point; I can fully understand why. There is a massive trading gap between $17.5K and $12K (ie no support), despite accumulation at current prices.
• Ironically if BTC had held $30K until recently prior to dropping to $15K, many would instead consider this a bottom, as would be very similar as 2018 capitulation.

A few other random thoughts:

I think it's too early to tell where price heads next, probably as many wait to see how far the contagion spreads, and whether it leads to further liquidations. Nobody really knows how far it will spread either, without insider knowledge that is. Either below $15.5K we finally reach the most bearish targets, or a move back above $18K could lead lead to a bullish monthly close above $19.5K.

The positives to take away from this recent capitulation is that based on volume as well as time, the recent drop is more than sufficient for a bottom. The only lacking factor is an -83% correction similar to previous cycles towards $12K, as many anticipate, despite this current cycle being very different to others (double top without parabolic move to end bull trend).

As for inflation, recession? Bitcoin has so far preformed better this year in it's bear market than in 2018. One year after ATH and it's down -77% compared to -83%. Notably in 2015 the bear market took 13.5 months to reach -83%, so clearly there is still time for further downside, but otherwise inflation hasn't caused price to collapse further than usual - only quicker than usual.

There are three things which are keeping me optimistic that we're not going to see the price go much lower.

Firstly, following the FTX debacle, there's been a huge removal of coins from exchanges, through fear of whether exchanges hold sufficient reserves. NYKNYC, etc. This increase of scarcity of BTC on exchanges could support (maybe increase?) the price as demand exceeds supply.

In reality, exchanges balances have steadily decreased since April 2020 after some sideways consolidation last year. More relevantly since breaking $30K it has continued to decline and has so far failed to provide any sort of "liquidity squeeze", so I doubt it'd have much effect in the immediate term. This is more about the longer-term effects when price reverses imo.

It won't have any effect until demand exceeds supply (such as post covid crash), but so far this isn't the case. The continued decreasing exchange supply - that could certainly continue to lower without positive price action - is more likely to have an effect in providing a much slower re-distribution period, for example sometime next year. Ie once price begins to move back to the upside, there would much less supply to satisfy demand until considerably higher levels. Even in 2019 price increased by 4x while liquidity was relatively high and continued climbing. I don't think we've ever really seen what happens when Bitcoin reaches a bottom with such low liquidity in exchanges, as previously it's been when exchanges balances have been much higher and rising. Unless there's a lot more fractional reserves than we're aware of...

Secondly, there's no reason for the FTX contagion to spread beyond shitcoins and into BTC (other than misconceived and ill-educated opinion)

Unless other exchanges fall that actually hold Bitcoin, those that are inter-linked with hedge funds that are getting liquidated. But otherwise I agree.

Thirdly, BTC tends to do what's least expected - so if the masses (with their misconceived and ill-educated opinion, fuelled also by MSM) are expecting contagion to flow into BTC and cause panic sells then.....it probably won't happen.

I think this is more true than ever. Though likely to be more relevant with a rebound back to $20K with most people expecting a rejection between $25K and $30K. Then we could see prices return to $50K to $60K based on a decent liquidity squeeze sometime next year. There has been accumulation for too long now, around a year, what's likely to follow is a years worth of distribution at much higher prices. Just imo.

kucoin has an awful lot of its token KCS when compared to its BTC holdings.

Based on the email they sent me which I posted here in a few spots. I would be very wary of them.

[Cryptolove20015]

BREAKING: Global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Reuters.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

[suchmoon]

So ...

Just flow with me here for a sec... What if this whole FTX thing was really a set-up.  Powers that be come in... got SB-F hooked on SOMETHING.  Have you seen the videos of him vibrating like a diesel engine?  Then nudge him further and further into the red 'till they set up the collapse.  Have legislation ready in the countries they control to try to bring the whole thing down over a few weeks...

Nah.  Just a ponzi prolly.

I'm just going to quote this from time to time until I either come out dead wrong, or...

Well let's hope for dead wrong.

Occam's razor says that greed and stupidity of hoi polloi is far more powerful than any lizard conspiracy could hope to be.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Jp Morgan has made a statement in recent collapse attributed to centralized exchanges and the need to avoid them and have our bitcoin safely secured being decentralized.

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1592250185518051331?t=OI-DAQHDVBA5DlvtDzOhqQ&s=19

[xhomerx10]

https://twitter.com/bradmillscan/status/1589810716374339584

It is hard for me to imagine how someone can gamble with someone's pensions in this way, unless they are bribed or totally incompetent. Just 2 months ago, their CEO spoke like this :

“In terms of the risk profile, it is probably the lowest risk profile you can have in that it’s everybody else is trading on your platform,” OTPP CEO Jo Taylor told Reuters last week.

 I don't know about the others but the Ontario Teachers' pension fund is flush.  They currently have over $700k in assets per teacher (working and retired).  With over $200 billion to invest, I'm not surprised some of it ended up at Celcius... probably a nothing burger with cheese.

 Follow up:
According to the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, they invested US$95M into failing crypto platform FTX which represents about 0.05% of their total portfolio.  

[philipma1957]

https://twitter.com/bradmillscan/status/1589810716374339584

It is hard for me to imagine how someone can gamble with someone's pensions in this way, unless they are bribed or totally incompetent. Just 2 months ago, their CEO spoke like this :

“In terms of the risk profile, it is probably the lowest risk profile you can have in that it’s everybody else is trading on your platform,” OTPP CEO Jo Taylor told Reuters last week.

 I don't know about the others but the Ontario Teachers' pension fund is flush.  They currently have over $700k in assets per teacher (working and retired).  With over $200 billion to invest, I'm not surprised some of it ended up at Celcius... probably a nothing burger with cheese.

 Follow up:
According to the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, they invested US$95M into failing crypto platform FTX which represents about 0.05% of their total portfolio.  

Thank you for that followup

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Lately i'm thinking about DEX, came across some tweet mentioning THORchain, any bro got some experience with this?
Appreciating tips and reccomendations  

EDIT: purpose is to avoid KYC and be able to buy/sell BTC against fiat.

For those interested, i repaired my refractor telescope, started a session of 90 minutes exposures of IC 1805 in the last hour, ending just before moonrise. Fingers crossed...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Lately i'm thinking about DEX, came across some tweet mentioning THORchain, any bro got some experience with this?

IIRC it was hacked and then the devs ignored the hacker explaining how to fix it and then it got hacked again, so yeah go ahead and put funds on there.

[BitcoinBunny]

So ...

Just flow with me here for a sec... What if this whole FTX thing was really a set-up.  Powers that be come in... got SB-F hooked on SOMETHING.  Have you seen the videos of him vibrating like a diesel engine?  Then nudge him further and further into the red 'till they set up the collapse.  Have legislation ready in the countries they control to try to bring the whole thing down over a few weeks...

Nah.  Just a ponzi prolly.

I'm just going to quote this from time to time until I either come out dead wrong, or...

Well let's hope for dead wrong.

"Every day SBF is not behind bars, it becomes increasingly clear he served as an asset for the the intelligence establishment, used to severely stain public perception & impose overreaching regulations.
The meteoric ascension. The political connections. The anti PoW stance. Fed."

Dylan LeClair
https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1592328377465462786

He was a massive donor to the corrupt Democrat party in the corrupt USA. That says enough. No conspiracy. Fact.

He won't see a day behind bars I bet.

And if he does, the CCTV will be off and he will "kill himself".

[AverageGlabella]

For those that might be interested I bought in at $36,850 with nearly all my saving account at the time. I still have my Bitcoin have not sold any of it. Bitcoin either gets to my goal price or it does not. I will not be selling before then and I will only be selling a certain amount to pay off the rest of my debts and not all of the btc if it does reach it. I remember when I first bought the amount I was very nervous about any micro movement but it is strange how calm I have been during the last few weeks. I think I owe a lot of this to my wife she has been the most understanding person. Part of me is kicking myself because I invested at a price which is over double the current price but that is just life. You cannot predict everything perfectly and anyone claiming to have foreseen this drop months ago is probably lying. I have money coming in with my job and that has been enough to build up a emergency fund if anything went wrong with the house or our health. I think that is all I need and can wait for Bitcoin to go up to my desired price.

I might do some dca at this price

[HI-TEC99]

[Paashaas]

BlockFi files for bankruptcy.

[UnDerDoG81]

Honestly, if we done with the FTX dump, it was not as worse as it should have been. Just proves we near bottom. Down 2k after this massive attack on Crypto. This was bigger than Mtgox. I keep skeptical because of the coming recession so I will keep some fiat instead of jamming all into Bitcoin now but still surprised.

It is proper to put money in many areas or places and it is not recommended to put money in one place only. Because if your goal is to make lots and lots of profits, then putting money into lots of businesses and investments is a very good solution. Because when you experience losses in one business, you still have hope in other businesses. But if you just want to save money to spend in life during a recession, I don't know what advice to give you.

I put ALL, really all my eggs in one basket in 2013. And that was Bitcoin. I was damn lucky. And I holded to this day. Can’t remember at what price but I sold 2% of my Bitcoin this year. And that’s the fiat I have now. I have no clue about investing and other assets. Was planning to buy some physical gold or silver in case of we get the “you will own nothing and be happy” agenda. If that happens, they will take away anything from us including Bitcoin. But still you can hide physical gold somewhere. Even though it’s difficult to travel with.

I wish I would have cashed out 20 or even 30% at 69k. So I could invest in a nice house now and rent it for passive income. But then again, if the WEF agenda succeeds, they will take away houses and anything else.

[Paashaas]

For those that might be interested I bought in at $36,850 with nearly all my saving account at the time. I still have my Bitcoin have not sold any of it. Bitcoin either gets to my goal price or it does not. I will not be selling before then and I will only be selling a certain amount to pay off the rest of my debts and not all of the btc if it does reach it. I remember when I first bought the amount I was very nervous about any micro movement but it is strange how calm I have been during the last few weeks. I think I owe a lot of this to my wife she has been the most understanding person. Part of me is kicking myself because I invested at a price which is nearly double the current price but that is just life. You cannot predict everything perfectly and anyone claiming to have foreseen this drop months ago is probably lying. I have money coming in with my job and that has been enough to build up a emergency fund if anything went wrong with the house or our health. I think that is all I need and can wait for Bitcoin to go up to my desired price.

I might do some dca at this price

Continue buying every month, you'll be just fine reaching your goal if you aim for 2024 halving mega pump.