Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I tried logging into my Gemini account, and it is "temporarily grounded" at the moment...  Looks like it has been down for about an hour so far, so it is not anything to get overly worried about, yet...  Hopefully, Gemini has NOT overly gambled with their client's funds too.....even if they may well have lost a lot of funds that were in such "earn" product.  So many folks believe that they need to "earn yield" on their coins.. which seems to be a slippery slope into shenanigans.. even tough we likely know that there should also be legitimate ways to "earn" so long as the "earning" is actually put into some product that is actually something other than a ponzi scheme and has actual collateral backing it up.

On paper, Gemini Earn appears to be a relatively simplistic lending program:

Gemini Earn is a lending program through which you may choose to lend your crypto to certain institutional borrowers and earn interest on your crypto.

At least based on the APYs (for example BTC 2.5%), it's not screaming ponzi, but ultimately how it actually functions under the hood is a different story... This probably isn't the real issue right now though.

The real question will be whether Gemini itself can deal with the withdrawal demand that comes it's way, this is what I'd trust a lot less right now. Given Gemini considered Genesis "trustworthy" and "audited" when they filed a claim against 3AC for $1.2B for loan defaulting months ago, should have screamed red flags. The fact they had $175 million effectively lost in FTX becomes much less relevant given that since July it looks like they had a big hole in their balance sheet - at least that's how it looks at a glance. Gemini not considering this an issue to terminate their partnership with them shows real poor oversight. So while there's apparently going to be 5 day delay for the Earn-based withdrawals - which I can actually believe as you can't just liquidate institutional borrowers overnight, but otherwise the loans could well be collateralised  - the real question remains whether Gemini itself has the liquidity to deal with the bank run coming it's way. While everyone was looking at Kucoin and Crypto.com, it seems obvious now why Gemini could soon fall.

PS - Bare in mind FTX.US was also "completely unaffected" by FTX Int. going bankrupt, for about 24 hours at least 

I would think that Gemini would be a bit better at keeping the funding or their various products separate, even if they had that "Earn Product" that was likely having some funds held in ways that the funds were "earning" greater interest somewhere else in order that Gemini could pay the relatively modest rates of 2.5% APY on BTC in that program. 

I personally never used that product, even though I do have some funds on their exchange.

Chief Executive Officer Derar Islim admitted that withdrawal requests exceeded current liquidity at Genesis Global Capital, the lending arm; but made it clear that Genesis's spot and derivatives trading and custody businesses “remain fully operational.”

The contagion of Genesis lending issues has already hit one large firm, as Gemini Trust Co., the cryptocurrency platform run by the Winklevoss brothers, has halted withdrawals from its Earn program:

Nice word selection there.
Doesn't say anything about being solvent.

If you don't let customers make withdrawals you can't be insolvent.gif

Exchanges have tried those kinds of things historically, including their websites completely disappearing.. The BIGGER (and maybe well established in physical space) the harder it is for them to disappear like that.  hahahahaha

But they could have one person "supposedly" hold all the private keys to all the stash, go on an orphan saving trip to India and then end up dying.. which might be almost the same as disappearing from the web.

A LOT of people are getting hurt by this damn thing.  And almost none of them deserve it. certainly no one I know here...

I can think of a few.. but maybe I should not make a list?

How about eXPHorizon?  He surely deserves it, no?

or

How about Billy_No_Coiner?  He surely deserves it, no?

Ok...

no reason to get personal or into elaborate lists...   

I suppose.

Which direction will Bitcoin take? SELL OR BUY

Don't do anything.  Just wait it out.

This is professional financial advice. from a nonprofessional.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

Hm?  You do not want to name the exchange?   Sometimes we should be naming the exchanges, and hopefully other folks do not end up NOT being able to withdraw.. even though you got yours out.

I imagine that you want to be able to have options, and personally, part of the reasojn that I keep some coins on exchanges is to have options... but yeah, at some point, maybe our options are going to dry up.. but we seem to be "no where close" to having any kind of Bitcoin circular economy yet, so part of my own reasons of having had ongoingly supported exchanges, has been to support that these kinds of services are available.. and of course, none of us want to be rug pulled in our own exchange(s).

I am hoping that the exodus of coins is inspiring various exchanges and third parties to strive towards becoming more responsible with customer funds and more responsive towards appreciating that customers are using their services rather than perhaps feeling like they have to go out of business.

Sorry for the late follow up...

I really didn't want to "name and shame" them. If i had felt there was something fishy going on, i would have no hesitation! Their intentions were great and all, just the speed of their communications was lacking. I have sent them a follow up email and suggestions to improve and they have taken it on board, lets hope support is there next time i need help!

But you are right about keeping options open, that was primarily the reason they were still on there! as much as i am HODL, i know some day i may want to take advantage of the demand and sit on the sell side of the wall! For now i am comfortable where i am.

The intention of the post was a reminder to have full control of your coins at all times! No matter how long they have been in business, how solid management is, all it takes is one major fuck up and your coins (actually their coins) are at risk.

And i don't mean just exchanges, old mining pools (I had almost 0.1BTC sitting there) and any other external custody.

The exodus of coins really does highlight the need for Exchanges to be more transparent with verification of their reserves (proven by signing with private keys etc...)

But what I am more excited with, is the idea that people are becoming more aware of self custody and taken control of their own Bitcoin! that is friggen awesome news!
 

[JayJuanGee]

I think Nayib Bukele is among us and have been reading philipma1957 and JJG

He followed JJG and philipma1957's suggestion of DCA


https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1593113857261965312

I would consider that Bukele's approach to bitcoin is a quite a bit closer to my approach to BTC rather than Philip's approach, yet ultimately the three of us have different approaches to BTC both historically and also what we currently are doing, so it is doesn't seem very accurate to lump them all into one, as if we were all doing the same thing.

One of the main sticking point with Philip's approach is that he never really did accumulate bitcoin on an ongoing basis, even though he has been into bitcoin for 11.5 years.. so it does not even seem fair to lump him in the same group, even if he happens to be the oldest in terms of length of time that he has had as opportunities to accumulate bitcoin.  He also sold recently and is cheerleading for lower prices in order to attempt to get a better BTC buy price while at the same time putting quite a bit of faith in the dollar.. and getting dollar yield.. which seems to be somewhat in tension with a motivated bitcoin accumulating approach.

Bukele does seem like a somewhat newbie to bitcoin, yet if we are talking about his countries accumulation of bitcoin  (in comparison to his own personal bitcoin accumulation - which we do not really seem to have information about that), his country really has ONLY been announcing themselves to have been publicly accumulating bitcoin since sometime around the time of their June 2021 announcement that they would be getting into bitcoin and establishing bitcoin as legal tender in their country.  They made several BTC purchases between June 2021 and recently; however, they did seem to slow down in their BTC purchases since about May 2022, and ONLY announced one time purchasing some BTC at around $19.5k.. perhaps at around the same time that Philip was selling BTC at around that same price.  So El Salvador and Bukele proclaims to have had never sold any BTC from the ones that they were accumulating, though it is not really clear how they are funding some of their BTC related projects, yet apparently that is coming from other funds - not their BTC treasury accumulation funds.

There still can be some overlap with similarities, yet with me, I proclaim DCA to be a strategy that is good for beginners and good for anyone to get into while they are still trying to reach some comfortably high levels of allocation towards BTC, and I proclaim to have had largely met my BTC accumulation goals in late 2014 - even though I did continue to feel compelled to accumulate in 2015 and 2016 - and maybe on a personal level I have been feeling as if I am somewhat back into BTC accumulation since May or June 2022, but my BTC accumulation is likely more in line with buying on dips rather than being very close to DCA - especially since I am also adding some new funds into my BTC purchases rather than just using money that I had accumulated from selling as the BTC price went up.. and largely that money of selling as the BTC price went up ran out around $18k-ish.

I promote DCA as one of the best of newbie BTC accumulation strategies - but as someone reaches more and more BTC accumulation, then his/her options should become greater because his/her BTC stash has increased - and so El Salvador seems to still be working its way up to getting towards higher levels of BTC accumulation, and I assert that I had already largely gotten to adequate and over-accumulation beyond my targets after late 2014.  Philip seems to have had never gotten there, even though he sometimes talks a BIG game - and he even gives what seems to be opposite advice in regards to proper mindset when he refers to the 50 year old with 100 or more BTC as if that person should be in a desperate state to sell BTC, when the opposite seems to be true.. because in fact the 50 year old with 100 or more BTC seems to be having way more options because he has BTC versus someone who does not have much if any BTC and is just sitting on his hands and buying $50 of BTC a week, which seems to be something close to what Philip is doing - which does not seem to be the place that any 65 year old should be in who had been into bitcoin for 11.5 years and seems to be dabbling with baby level BTC buys and praying for sub $10k BTC prices that may well NOT end up happening.

So BTC accumulation party depends upon where you are at, and if you put yourself into a place where you do not have coins, I would suggest that your BTC accumulation should be way more assertive.. rather than waiting around for the BTC price to drop.. and I suppose, even if El Salvador got nervous because of BTC price drops since May 2022 (or they might have been forced by public pressure to be nervous and to lay off of their aggressive BTC buys), they are showing signs of getting back into a reasonable BTC accumulation level that would fit for someone that is in their somewhat early BTC accumulation stages including that their BTC is not in profits and continuing to buy BTC will bring down their current average price per BTC.

[dragonvslinux]

I tried logging into my Gemini account, and it is "temporarily grounded" at the moment...  Looks like it has been down for about an hour so far, so it is not anything to get overly worried about, yet...  Hopefully, Gemini has NOT overly gambled with their client's funds too.....even if they may well have lost a lot of funds that were in such "earn" product.  So many folks believe that they need to "earn yield" on their coins.. which seems to be a slippery slope into shenanigans.. even tough we likely know that there should also be legitimate ways to "earn" so long as the "earning" is actually put into some product that is actually something other than a ponzi scheme and has actual collateral backing it up.

On paper, Gemini Earn appears to be a relatively simplistic lending program:

Gemini Earn is a lending program through which you may choose to lend your crypto to certain institutional borrowers and earn interest on your crypto.

At least based on the APYs (for example BTC 2.5%), it's not screaming ponzi, but ultimately how it actually functions under the hood is a different story... This probably isn't the real issue right now though.

The real question will be whether Gemini itself can deal with the withdrawal demand that comes it's way, this is what I'd trust a lot less right now. Given Gemini considered Genesis "trustworthy" and "audited" when they filed a claim against 3AC for $1.2B for loan defaulting months ago, should have screamed red flags. The fact they had $175 million effectively lost in FTX becomes much less relevant given that since July it looks like they had a big hole in their balance sheet - at least that's how it looks at a glance. Gemini not considering this an issue to terminate their partnership with them shows real poor oversight. So while there's apparently going to be 5 day delay for the Earn-based withdrawals - which I can actually believe as you can't just liquidate institutional borrowers overnight, but otherwise the loans could well be collateralised  - the real question remains whether Gemini itself has the liquidity to deal with the bank run coming it's way. While everyone was looking at Kucoin and Crypto.com, it seems obvious now why Gemini could soon fall.

PS - Bare in mind FTX.US was also "completely unaffected" by FTX Int. going bankrupt, for about 24 hours at least  

I would think that Gemini would be a bit better at keeping the funding or their various products separate, even if they had that "Earn Product" that was likely having some funds held in ways that the funds were "earning" greater interest somewhere else in order that Gemini could pay the relatively modest rates of 2.5% APY on BTC in that program.  

I personally never used that product, even though I do have some funds on their exchange.

Think you're probably right. The "Earn Product" was/is definitely separate, as it's managed by Genesis which appear to have f'd up, whereas Gemini otherwise claim all funds are backed 1:1. So far their 188K balance has only dropped to 165K after news broke, so unlike FTX seems like traders still have faith with this exchange. Baring in mind it was technically Genesis providing the 2.5% APY, via Gemini, rather than Gemini itself.

Still think it's not a time to be holding any "unnecessary" capital (inactive) on exchanges right now though, just as a precautionary measure.

[hisslyness]

Something doesn't add up!

Blockchain.com is reporting average confirmation time of 143mins / 71mins / 22mins for the last 3 days and other charting sites are pulling data from here...

However, I went back to check the actual blocks

GMT+11:00
15th/nov: 763,195 - 763,349 - 155 blocks (+11 blocks)
16th/nov: 763,350 - 763,499 - 150 blocks (+6 blocks)
17th/nov-current (9hs 30min): 763,500 - 763,551 - 52 blocks (-5blocks)

Can anyone confirm my calculations are correct? if anything it should be faster the last 3 days on average...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Choose wisely bitcoin or big-melons...can't be both..

What if I prefer women with large breasts who are financially secure?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[log2exp]

Glad tidings, if you asked me. The crypto industry, of a truth, has come to stay.

https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1592508098648084482?t=_V3eT0EPlOFLSn0TTEYRvA&s=19

Only bitcoin stays, not crypto. CZ still pumping his shitcoins empire, he needs to go.

[shahzadafzal]

Choose wisely bitcoin or big-melons...can't be both..

What if I prefer women with large breasts who are financially secure?

Financially secure women means large melons with bitcoins... you sneaky fella... in that case you getting both, smart move!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LDL]

I think Nayib Bukele is among us and have been reading philipma1957 and JJG

He followed JJG and philipma1957's suggestion of DCA



https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1593113857261965312

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced on Nov.16 that the Central American nation will start purchasing BTC on a daily basis starting from Nov.17. The announcement comes nearly three months after the nation made its last BTC purchase in July 2022.
As the world’s first nation to adopt Bitcoin (BTC) as a legal tender in September 2021, El Salvador is going back to its BTC buying days after a pause for months amid bearish market conditions.

According to public records, El Salvador currently holds 2,381 BTC at an average buying price of $43,357. Thus, the country has spent nearly $103.23 million on its BTC purchase and the value of the same BTC currently sits at $39.4 million.



CT

[hisslyness]

I think Nayib Bukele is among us and have been reading philipma1957 and JJG

He followed JJG and philipma1957's suggestion of DCA



https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1593113857261965312

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced on Nov.16 that the Central American nation will start purchasing BTC on a daily basis starting from Nov.17. The announcement comes nearly three months after the nation made its last BTC purchase in July 2022.
As the world’s first nation to adopt Bitcoin (BTC) as a legal tender in September 2021, El Salvador is going back to its BTC buying days after a pause for months amid bearish market conditions.

According to public records, El Salvador currently holds 2,381 BTC at an average buying price of $43,357. Thus, the country has spent nearly $103.23 million on its BTC purchase and the value of the same BTC currently sits at $39.4 million.



CT

i am sure i mentioned this before to you! with the pumpkin image!

width=[INSERT NUMBER FROM 1 - 100]

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Choose wisely bitcoin or big-melons...can't be both..

I have both in my life to be honest. Privilege of being an OG, I guess!   

[shahzadafzal]

Choose wisely bitcoin or big-melons...can't be both..

I have both in my life to be honest. Privilege of being an OG, I guess!   

I think need to elaborate these more

[hisslyness]

Choose wisely bitcoin or big-melons...can't be both..

I have both in my life to be honest. Privilege of being an OG, I guess!   

I think need to elaborate these more

ahh fuck!.. warning!.. do not click on the above.. may cause Nausea and Vomiting

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

All WEF puppets. Well whadda ya know....

It's pretty clear now that FTX was a WEF op ponzi scam from the get go.


https://twitter.com/PelosiTracker_/status/1593144488255713280

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation