Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dr. Strange]

SATOSHI NAKAMOTO. ₿ANKING THE UN₿ANKED SINCE 2009.

Bitcoin magazine store collection😀






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[Lucius]

At this stage of the market, everyone has their prediction, so the predictions even confuses us, Pantera gives his own prediction that in 2024 March is the time of the ATH of $149,000.

I won't check their speculations, but I think they might be wrong for the whole year, unless they think the new ATH is realistic before the halving.

As it is I am really worry of the market right now because I bought Bitcoin at the time of 21$ and I want to use the money for the Xmas. Though it is not much but at least it can but small things, I was planning to hodle it till the next bull.

If by any chance you bought Bitcoin at the price of $21, today you wouldn't have to think about what you will buy for Christmas - even with the current price, you would be in a big profit

Is it that the fall of FXT is the cause of this 16$ for this long period it time?

I don't think it needs to be further explained, and no one knows how long it will take for Bitcoin to recover - maybe a few months, maybe a year. I think Bankman will take the title of Grinch this Christmas.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

Wondering what exactly is the advice

I'm pretty sure it's advising you not to place yourself in a situation where you might encounter a single lady. You could start talking to her, then she becomes your girlfriend, then you get married, then she steals all your wealth. Pretty simple.

Unless she has Bitcoin.

 In my country,  it's bad luck to walk past a fire hydrant on your right-hand side.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Wondering what exactly is the advice

I'm pretty sure it's advising you not to place yourself in a situation where you might encounter a single lady. You could start talking to her, then she becomes your girlfriend, then you get married, then she steals all your wealth. Pretty simple.

Incels will never get the financial advice anyway, because when she sees them coming, the beautiful lady will either turn around or rapidly cross the street herself. 

[Rehan Zakir]

Saw the President get orange pilled on #Bitcoin art


Source: https://twitter.com/stacyherbert/status/1593124733167742976?s=20&t=-UpxPcVWsCSf2FdFadVY3w

[PrivacyG]

Wondering what exactly is the advice

We see a man going his way with an 'obstacle' ahead that may distract him and interrupt his plan for a while.  What I understand is that you better avoid distractions and obstacles than confront them.  Change your path and ignore the rules if necessary, but avoid any obstacle you can think of.

This is in fact an advice I often use myself.  Maybe why I interpret this image that way as well.  I found out that by seeking ways to avoid obstacles and distractions I am making a much faster and better progress than I would of made by confronting them, even if sometimes this means I have to break rules.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Buddy Breaker.

When $30,000?

[Gachapin]

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

That would mean BTC can never exceed gold.

I doubt that this progression will be valid forever... 

[Biodom]

Some dates:

Currently, halving is adjusted to March 22, 2024 (from original May) assuming that it stays this way (hashrate) for a while.
Pantera fund (Morehead et al) says that bottom occurs at around 477 days before halving.

Therefore, THE bottom is projected on Dec 1, 2022, but since it is so close, me might have had it already at $15.5K, or otherwise hedgies might push more for it to close the month lower.
I would be comfortable if we are at the expected $36K-40K at the halving, but suspect a bigger bump beforehand a la 2019 (maybe 49-50K).
Place your bets.

EDIT btw, Pantera just bought about $140mil in btc (a first btc fund fundraise since 2015).
https://www.trustnodes.com/2022/11/19/pantera-buys-140-million-bitcoin

[Biodom]

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

That would mean BTC can never exceed gold.

I doubt that this progression will be valid forever...  

there is a bit of a paradox in bitcoin behavior so far.
Let me formulate it:

Bitcoin's bull stages appear to be progressively shallower from the bottom (at depicted above-from 580X to 113X to 22X), but downward plunges changed only marginally; from -94% to -87% to -84% to, currently, -77.5%. Therefore, if the trend continues and our next top is, say, 150K, then -70% down would be 45K and if only a marginal top in 80K vicinity, then $24K bottom in 2026-2027, which would be quite brutal in comparison with even the 2021 top. I don't know what to make of it. I always thought that IF bulls were to become shallower, then bears would be as well, but SO FAR, it did not really happen (at least not as much). Anyone with an explanation?

TL;DR If bull parts of the cycle became shallower, why bear phases are almost as relentless as two cycle ago?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

That would mean BTC can never exceed gold.

I doubt that this progression will be valid forever...  

there is a bit of a paradox in bitcoin behavior so far.
Let me formulate it:

Bitcoin's bull stages appear to be progressively shallower from the bottom (at depicted above-from 580X to 113X to 22X), but downward plunges changed only marginally; from -94% to -87% to -84% to, currently, -77.5%. Therefore, if the trend continues and our next top is, say, 150K, then -70% down would be 45K and if only a marginal top in 80K vicinity, then $24K bottom in 2026-2027, which would be quite brutal in comparison with even the 2021 top. I don't know what to make of it. I always thought that IF bulls were to become shallower, then bears would be as well, but SO FAR, it did not really happen (at least not as much). Anyone with an explanation?

TL;DR If bull parts of the cycle became shallower, why bear phases are almost as relentless as two cycle ago?

maybe because "we will tame Bitcoin"....

[Hueristic]

I don't know what to make of it.

People are stupid and do not self custody and allow their coins to be used in naked shorting, Fractional reserve banking and participate in derivative never settling markets and then cry they don't know whats happening when its been spelt out to them for years?

Nah, thats not it.


Edit: got beat to it while spell checking.

[cAPSLOCK]

id ask for a do over for '22...except i def do not want to go thru this again    could be 3-6 months before this purge shakes out cause im not sure the other shoe has dropped yet
usually comes about the time you raise your head up and begin to wonder if its all clear

disappointed with the whole space right now


happy fucking holidays


dyor

stronghands

If that doesn't say "stronghands" we are gonna have to sit down for a talk!