Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope

technically you are right, but I think November is close enough..

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

...maybe because it got "tamed" by some assholes.  
Actually a 3x parabolic pre-halving run shouldn't be any problem for Bitcoin

[Gachapin]

P.S. Gay x-mas card time soon! 

it seems they are forbidden in the WO this year.  A few months ago they got deleted by some thought police mod...

But I'm gonna post them again soon, nevertheless 

[HI-TEC99]

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope

mmh technically you are right, but I think November is still acceptably accurate..

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

...maybe because it got "tamed" by some assholes.  
Actually a 3x parabolic pre-halving run shouldn't be any problem for Bitcoin

Maybe it was some of these.

[Gachapin]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, but imo that level will not be sustainable, because of the mining costs being much much lower.  It could be sustainable, if we got some rare event like a big chunk of international trade happened via BTC, or if western central banks started buying - or why not both  .

[eXPHorizon]

Everything this guy touches turns to GOLD


Just like ME hahahah

[Gachapin]

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope

mmh technically you are right, but I think November is still acceptably accurate..

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

...maybe because it got "tamed" by some assholes.  
Actually a 3x parabolic pre-halving run shouldn't be any problem for Bitcoin

Maybe it was some of these.

thanks for the laugh...

but nah..  shitcoins we had in 2017 as well and we still had a nice 17x from the last ATH

[eXPHorizon]

P.S. Gay x-mas card time soon!  

it seems they are forbidden in the WO this year.  A few months ago they got deleted by some thought police mod...

But I'm gonna post them again soon, nevertheless  

Please only Boobs, ass, n pussys hhh pussy and tits can be combined !

Just kidding... post WHATEVER you Like

[serveria.com]

IMHO, it is a bit illogical to suggest a 200K as the next ATH as we should either be in a top deceleration trend (1.1K to 20K to 69K to maybe 120-130K) or in a usage acceleration trend the peak should be much higher at, say, 500K. Basically, the push from decrease in issuance (block reward) should be smaller in each cycle, but at some point we can get into the S-curve in adoption, hence the possibility of a bigger number.

200K does not seem to fit any discernible pattern. Sure, it could happen, just based on the randomness.

Halving suggests that the price should at least double so $69k x2  = ~$140k. That would be fair price for the miners and all but we know that Bitcoin doesn't give a damn... 

why would it? it's a halving of reward, not doubling of the price. The bulk of btc is already issued and the breakeven for miners is about 15-16K (this one will be doubling, sure).

That'd be just fair as they're getting 3BTC per block now but will be receiving 1.5BTC per block burning the same amount of energy. And as you've probably heard, electricity prices have tripled in some countries, making mining completely unprofitable.

[d_eddie]

@CryptoTea_
Bitcoin to $100k feels inevitable

Here's why 👇🧵
https://twitter.com/cryptotea_/status/1599393734243758080

Because pretty testimonials?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

The change from bear to bull market or vice versa in general is defined by the last big news. We had multiple bad news related to various fraudulent companies in the last year. If the price starts to climb up, this won't mean a true bull market. It will be what is called a disbelief rally, ending usually below the last ATH (but not necessarily). In order to reverse the trend for a true bull market, we need a lot of change in the public space. In the last cycle, there was euphoria about the institutional investors, Grayscale, Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, paypal, El Salvador, etc. Some of us even argued that this time will be different, and we will not see a bear market at all. I believed only 50% of that, so I cashed out a bit as a precaution. My experience shows that there always will come some FUD that would put an end to the bull market for awhile at least.

For the next bull market the average Joes must believe that this time "it will be different" and no more surpises will happen. A new euphoria generated by series of big good news. May be the exchanges will get safer, the fraudulent companies exposed, ETF approved, more countries accepting Bitcoin as a legal tender, Amazon accepting Bitcoin, and so on. This is how it works IMO. I'm not 100% sure that this will happen before 2025, but let's hope for the best. The good thing is that this is inevitable, so let's use the time for DCA. And just when everybody expects the next ATH, some unexpected bad news would again stop the bull market and the new bear market will begin.

[serveria.com]

Many many many @CryptoTea_

We gots our lil selfies (not royal) a CryptoTea_ fanboi going on here... .. and without any nohomo... too..  

Look at the cornfield
A Sunday in December
Making placid waves

#haiku

As far as I can determine, placid is better than flaccid, no?

[...]
@CryptoTea_
Looking at previous 4 year halving cycles:

Bitcoin bottoms in the next few months

And hits a new all time high around the end of 2025

Note: Historical data does not predict the future

https://twitter.com/cryptotea_/status/1599393742250602497
[...]
I’d argue that we’ll see $200,000 or higher at the peak of the next cycle (top in late 2025) but you get the drill.

+1 to this!

$200,000+ will be an easy target in the next cycle. Adjacent spirals are roughly one order of magnitude (one extra zero) apart (see here for WO's very own spiral analysis showing this).

Yes.... "We" need a spiraling update from our very own WO spiral analyst #nohomo... within the next 2-4 years, no rush.  

Some thoughts here. Funny how the doomiest and gloomiest forecasts always (well frequently, I'm a bit exaggerating) come true but the boldest and bulliest always get denied:

That's not true.  It seems like almost always while we are "in the doldrums," it just feels like everything is going bad and bitcoin is dying.. that's how being "in the doldrums" is supposed to feel... otherwise weak hands, snot nosed 14-year olds and degenerate gamblers will not get shooken from their cornz.

Did we reach $100k? no
ATH should happen only after a parabolic price increase! it turns out that not always

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go to $100k, and there were also no guarantees that bitcoin would make it to $69k, but it did.

Bitcoin can't fall below the previous cycle's ATH? it just did

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go below 200-week moving average.... and there also are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to stay above $15,479, but so far it has.

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope
Bear market can't end before the halving? true so far
We're going down to $9-10k this cycle? possible, can't be ruled out completely

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

Bitcoin might go up from here and screw the bears.  That's possible... and you are right it could go down to $9-$10k or even lower.  I would not rule out either one, even if neither one is guaranteed.

Furthermore, bitcoin has a pretty long history of screwing bears.. and it is quite satisfying when it does happen to have happen.. even though it is possible that the bears will never get screwed again, ever.. and even though historically it has seemed unlikely that the bears are going to get screwed right before it ends up happening, and sometimes we do not even realize how badly bears are getting screwed while such screwing of the bears is happening... I could give some examples.. but you know enough to be able to find your own examples if you weren't being such a party-pooping negative-nancy at the moment.  

Toughen up, soldier.  #nohomo.  

 

Well I hoped you knew me better man I'm a battle-tested veteran, permabull and a hodler. So no need to cheer me up I'm brimming with confidence regarding Bitcoin future...  

[serveria.com]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, but imo that level will not be sustainable, because of the mining costs being much much lower.  It could be sustainable, if we got some rare event like a big chunk of international trade happened via BTC, or if western central banks started buying - or why not both  .

Pretty similar here.. my worst case scenario was ~$80k but I was hoping for $100k+ prices (I was pretty sure we'll reach $100k during previous cycle)

[eXPHorizon]

Many many many @CryptoTea_

We gots our lil selfies (not royal) a CryptoTea_ fanboi going on here... .. and without any nohomo... too..  

Look at the cornfield
A Sunday in December
Making placid waves

#haiku

As far as I can determine, placid is better than flaccid, no?

[...]
@CryptoTea_
Looking at previous 4 year halving cycles:

Bitcoin bottoms in the next few months

And hits a new all time high around the end of 2025

Note: Historical data does not predict the future

https://twitter.com/cryptotea_/status/1599393742250602497
[...]
I’d argue that we’ll see $200,000 or higher at the peak of the next cycle (top in late 2025) but you get the drill.

+1 to this!

$200,000+ will be an easy target in the next cycle. Adjacent spirals are roughly one order of magnitude (one extra zero) apart (see here for WO's very own spiral analysis showing this).

Yes.... "We" need a spiraling update from our very own WO spiral analyst #nohomo... within the next 2-4 years, no rush.  

Some thoughts here. Funny how the doomiest and gloomiest forecasts always (well frequently, I'm a bit exaggerating) come true but the boldest and bulliest always get denied:

That's not true.  It seems like almost always while we are "in the doldrums," it just feels like everything is going bad and bitcoin is dying.. that's how being "in the doldrums" is supposed to feel... otherwise weak hands, snot nosed 14-year olds and degenerate gamblers will not get shooken from their cornz.

Did we reach $100k? no
ATH should happen only after a parabolic price increase! it turns out that not always

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go to $100k, and there were also no guarantees that bitcoin would make it to $69k, but it did.

Bitcoin can't fall below the previous cycle's ATH? it just did

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go below 200-week moving average.... and there also are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to stay above $15,479, but so far it has.

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope
Bear market can't end before the halving? true so far
We're going down to $9-10k this cycle? possible, can't be ruled out completely

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

Bitcoin might go up from here and screw the bears.  That's possible... and you are right it could go down to $9-$10k or even lower.  I would not rule out either one, even if neither one is guaranteed.

Furthermore, bitcoin has a pretty long history of screwing bears.. and it is quite satisfying when it does happen to have happen.. even though it is possible that the bears will never get screwed again, ever.. and even though historically it has seemed unlikely that the bears are going to get screwed right before it ends up happening, and sometimes we do not even realize how badly bears are getting screwed while such screwing of the bears is happening... I could give some examples.. but you know enough to be able to find your own examples if you weren't being such a party-pooping negative-nancy at the moment.  

Toughen up, soldier.  #nohomo.  

 

Well I hoped you knew me better man I'm a battle-tested veteran, permabull and a hodler. So no need to cheer me up I'm brimming with confidence regarding Bitcoin future...  

severia .. i am sorry but this time it is different..

[ImThour]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, ...

At 400k I might swap my cardborghini for a real lambo.

[eXPHorizon]

Bitcoin does not mean your unplugged ur even more dependant... It is time WO Minions.. It is your time

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, ...

At 400k I might swap my cardborghini for a real lambo.

I would rather drive a cardborghini with pedals than a real lambo. it's less cringe