Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

Many many many @CryptoTea_

We gots our lil selfies (not royal) a CryptoTea_ fanboi going on here... .. and without any nohomo... too..  

Look at the cornfield
A Sunday in December
Making placid waves

#haiku

As far as I can determine, placid is better than flaccid, no?

[...]
@CryptoTea_
Looking at previous 4 year halving cycles:

Bitcoin bottoms in the next few months

And hits a new all time high around the end of 2025

Note: Historical data does not predict the future

https://twitter.com/cryptotea_/status/1599393742250602497
[...]
I’d argue that we’ll see $200,000 or higher at the peak of the next cycle (top in late 2025) but you get the drill.

+1 to this!

$200,000+ will be an easy target in the next cycle. Adjacent spirals are roughly one order of magnitude (one extra zero) apart (see here for WO's very own spiral analysis showing this).

Yes.... "We" need a spiraling update from our very own WO spiral analyst #nohomo... within the next 2-4 years, no rush.  

Some thoughts here. Funny how the doomiest and gloomiest forecasts always (well frequently, I'm a bit exaggerating) come true but the boldest and bulliest always get denied:

That's not true.  It seems like almost always while we are "in the doldrums," it just feels like everything is going bad and bitcoin is dying.. that's how being "in the doldrums" is supposed to feel... otherwise weak hands, snot nosed 14-year olds and degenerate gamblers will not get shooken from their cornz.

Did we reach $100k? no
ATH should happen only after a parabolic price increase! it turns out that not always

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go to $100k, and there were also no guarantees that bitcoin would make it to $69k, but it did.

Bitcoin can't fall below the previous cycle's ATH? it just did

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go below 200-week moving average.... and there also are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to stay above $15,479, but so far it has.

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope
Bear market can't end before the halving? true so far
We're going down to $9-10k this cycle? possible, can't be ruled out completely

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

Bitcoin might go up from here and screw the bears.  That's possible... and you are right it could go down to $9-$10k or even lower.  I would not rule out either one, even if neither one is guaranteed.

Furthermore, bitcoin has a pretty long history of screwing bears.. and it is quite satisfying when it does happen to have happen.. even though it is possible that the bears will never get screwed again, ever.. and even though historically it has seemed unlikely that the bears are going to get screwed right before it ends up happening, and sometimes we do not even realize how badly bears are getting screwed while such screwing of the bears is happening... I could give some examples.. but you know enough to be able to find your own examples if you weren't being such a party-pooping negative-nancy at the moment.  

Toughen up, soldier.  #nohomo.  

 

Well I hoped you knew me better man I'm a battle-tested veteran, permabull and a hodler. So no need to cheer me up I'm brimming with confidence regarding Bitcoin future...  

[1714876412]

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[1714876412]

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[1714876412]

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[serveria.com]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, but imo that level will not be sustainable, because of the mining costs being much much lower.  It could be sustainable, if we got some rare event like a big chunk of international trade happened via BTC, or if western central banks started buying - or why not both  .

Pretty similar here.. my worst case scenario was ~$80k but I was hoping for $100k+ prices (I was pretty sure we'll reach $100k during previous cycle)

[eXPHorizon]

Many many many @CryptoTea_

We gots our lil selfies (not royal) a CryptoTea_ fanboi going on here... .. and without any nohomo... too..  

Look at the cornfield
A Sunday in December
Making placid waves

#haiku

As far as I can determine, placid is better than flaccid, no?

[...]
@CryptoTea_
Looking at previous 4 year halving cycles:

Bitcoin bottoms in the next few months

And hits a new all time high around the end of 2025

Note: Historical data does not predict the future

https://twitter.com/cryptotea_/status/1599393742250602497
[...]
I’d argue that we’ll see $200,000 or higher at the peak of the next cycle (top in late 2025) but you get the drill.

+1 to this!

$200,000+ will be an easy target in the next cycle. Adjacent spirals are roughly one order of magnitude (one extra zero) apart (see here for WO's very own spiral analysis showing this).

Yes.... "We" need a spiraling update from our very own WO spiral analyst #nohomo... within the next 2-4 years, no rush.  

Some thoughts here. Funny how the doomiest and gloomiest forecasts always (well frequently, I'm a bit exaggerating) come true but the boldest and bulliest always get denied:

That's not true.  It seems like almost always while we are "in the doldrums," it just feels like everything is going bad and bitcoin is dying.. that's how being "in the doldrums" is supposed to feel... otherwise weak hands, snot nosed 14-year olds and degenerate gamblers will not get shooken from their cornz.

Did we reach $100k? no
ATH should happen only after a parabolic price increase! it turns out that not always

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go to $100k, and there were also no guarantees that bitcoin would make it to $69k, but it did.

Bitcoin can't fall below the previous cycle's ATH? it just did

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go below 200-week moving average.... and there also are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to stay above $15,479, but so far it has.

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope
Bear market can't end before the halving? true so far
We're going down to $9-10k this cycle? possible, can't be ruled out completely

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

Bitcoin might go up from here and screw the bears.  That's possible... and you are right it could go down to $9-$10k or even lower.  I would not rule out either one, even if neither one is guaranteed.

Furthermore, bitcoin has a pretty long history of screwing bears.. and it is quite satisfying when it does happen to have happen.. even though it is possible that the bears will never get screwed again, ever.. and even though historically it has seemed unlikely that the bears are going to get screwed right before it ends up happening, and sometimes we do not even realize how badly bears are getting screwed while such screwing of the bears is happening... I could give some examples.. but you know enough to be able to find your own examples if you weren't being such a party-pooping negative-nancy at the moment.  

Toughen up, soldier.  #nohomo.  

 

Well I hoped you knew me better man I'm a battle-tested veteran, permabull and a hodler. So no need to cheer me up I'm brimming with confidence regarding Bitcoin future...  

severia .. i am sorry but this time it is different..

[ImThour]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, ...

At 400k I might swap my cardborghini for a real lambo.

[eXPHorizon]

Bitcoin does not mean your unplugged ur even more dependant... It is time WO Minions.. It is your time

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, ...

At 400k I might swap my cardborghini for a real lambo.

I would rather drive a cardborghini with pedals than a real lambo. it's less cringe

[HI-TEC99]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, ...

At 400k I might swap my cardborghini for a real lambo.

I would rather drive a cardborghini with pedals than a real lambo. it's less cringe

Even mopeds go faster than them.

[HI-TEC99]

This is the kind of deal I'm hoping for. Even if I don't get a lambo it's a nice profit to make.



https://bitsonline.com/lamborghini-bitcoin-saddington/

... having bought his first bitcoin way back in 2011. When he bought in, the bitcoin price was $2.52.

Come October 2017, and Saddington’s cheap investment from 2011 had earned enough profit to allow him to purchase the Lamborghini. Rather than selling his coins at an exchange and buying the car with fiat, however, Saddington made the entire purchase with bitcoin.

Based on what he paid for the bitcoins in 2011, Saddington said his car only cost around $115. Profit from the skyrocketing bitcoin price took care of the rest.

He bought the car in despite the Bitcoin Lambo memes warning against buying a car with the rapidly-appreciating bitcoin. Saddington acknowledged that his purchase may end up costing him $20 million in the future as bitcoin’s value goes up. “But sometimes you just have to reward yourself,” he said.

At a guess if he'd hodled he would be a multi millionaire by now. Maybe I won't be getting a lambo after all.

[Toxic2040]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

This is the kind of deal I'm hoping for. Even if I don't get a lambo it's a nice profit to make.



https://bitsonline.com/lamborghini-bitcoin-saddington/

... having bought his first bitcoin way back in 2011. When he bought in, the bitcoin price was $2.52.

Come October 2017, and Saddington’s cheap investment from 2011 had earned enough profit to allow him to purchase the Lamborghini. Rather than selling his coins at an exchange and buying the car with fiat, however, Saddington made the entire purchase with bitcoin.

Based on what he paid for the bitcoins in 2011, Saddington said his car only cost around $115. Profit from the skyrocketing bitcoin price took care of the rest.

He bought the car in despite the Bitcoin Lambo memes warning against buying a car with the rapidly-appreciating bitcoin. Saddington acknowledged that his purchase may end up costing him $20 million in the future as bitcoin’s value goes up. “But sometimes you just have to reward yourself,” he said.

At a guess if he'd hodled he would be a multi millionaire by now. Maybe I won't be getting a lambo after all.

I registered here in 2011 after discovering I could play poker for bitcoin.

I have sold little bits to do things like take a trip with my wife.

But ultimately I have bought the dips enough to replace those sold coins.  Part of it is my ethos.  I do not really need all that much stuff.  In fact in the end I just might make all of you richer.

“Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.” -somebody important

I accepted long ago I will either be a genius for holding, or a fool.

We will see.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

I am sad to announce that one of the oldest lightning network nodes to exist is going to be shut down permanently.  (well unless I change my mind.  I still have the details needed to spin it back up. )

Deej...  A node way more than 3 years old...  A child of one of the first 200 nodes on the LN.

Foolishly run on a raspberry pi.  On a single hard drive.  The hard drive failed.  I was running DEEJ (LND) and it's sister node JEED (CL) on the same setup.  Deej was difficult to recover, but Jeed was much more resilient.  This has made me realize that the Blockstream implementation is superior to the LND one.  As it turns out there are many other ways this is true.  Like Bolt 12.

Anyway... I will keep JEED running, and might toss a few more BTC at it... but the venerable DEEJ is being completely shut down... 

Long live the king.

https://1ml.com/node/02a0bcc2b99673587d4a92028a2b2ce709b72c904962e2f783fd480c2c41e3dc7d

https://1ml.com/node/03562bdcf00fe0cf44e8a491a8c9b26f31c4e45c9a88cdfd6a2f0f2550a304c73e

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

This is the kind of deal I'm hoping for. Even if I don't get a lambo it's a nice profit to make.



https://bitsonline.com/lamborghini-bitcoin-saddington/

... having bought his first bitcoin way back in 2011. When he bought in, the bitcoin price was $2.52.

Come October 2017, and Saddington’s cheap investment from 2011 had earned enough profit to allow him to purchase the Lamborghini. Rather than selling his coins at an exchange and buying the car with fiat, however, Saddington made the entire purchase with bitcoin.

Based on what he paid for the bitcoins in 2011, Saddington said his car only cost around $115. Profit from the skyrocketing bitcoin price took care of the rest.

He bought the car in despite the Bitcoin Lambo memes warning against buying a car with the rapidly-appreciating bitcoin. Saddington acknowledged that his purchase may end up costing him $20 million in the future as bitcoin’s value goes up. “But sometimes you just have to reward yourself,” he said.

At a guess if he'd hodled he would be a multi millionaire by now. Maybe I won't be getting a lambo after all.

I certainly wouldn't pay 45 BTC for a car. (if I'm not mistaken that's about the BTC he paid)

But I understand when he is talking about the reward you need to give yourself from time to time...

[JayJuanGee]

This is the kind of deal I'm hoping for. Even if I don't get a lambo it's a nice profit to make.



https://bitsonline.com/lamborghini-bitcoin-saddington/

... having bought his first bitcoin way back in 2011. When he bought in, the bitcoin price was $2.52.

Come October 2017, and Saddington’s cheap investment from 2011 had earned enough profit to allow him to purchase the Lamborghini. Rather than selling his coins at an exchange and buying the car with fiat, however, Saddington made the entire purchase with bitcoin.

Based on what he paid for the bitcoins in 2011, Saddington said his car only cost around $115. Profit from the skyrocketing bitcoin price took care of the rest.

He bought the car in despite the Bitcoin Lambo memes warning against buying a car with the rapidly-appreciating bitcoin. Saddington acknowledged that his purchase may end up costing him $20 million in the future as bitcoin’s value goes up. “But sometimes you just have to reward yourself,” he said.

At a guess if he'd hodled he would be a multi millionaire by now. Maybe I won't be getting a lambo after all.

For nice and round numbers, let's say that the Lambo cost him around 50 BTC (or 45 BTC like Gachapin said), and he got those BTC for around $115 or maybe he paid a bit more for the BTC or the lambo cost him a bit more.. .. .. yet.. I would conjecture that any good money manager is not going to be spending more than 1/4 of his her stash for a stupid depreciating car.. (even if it is nice looking and all of that).  In other words, I would conjecture that he should have at least 150 BTC at the time of that October 2017 purchase - so then one of the major questions would be whether he would have bought more BTC when the BTC price dropped between 2018 and 2020, and was he not so careless as to sell some of his BTC in such a way that would be too much too soon.

Even though I am granting up to 25% on a luxury car, I could not imagine even spending 5-10% of my stash on such a car... so in that regard, if the targeted lambo costs around $500k (and maybe even more) then I would not really judge too much if the person were to have $2million in networth in order to buy such lambo (so that would be 25%, but more reasonably, I would expect a bit more networth, even though such lambo would be affordable, even at 25% of networth.  Maybe I am being a bit too judgmental about the use of wealth on consumption goods, and we know that there are quite a few consumption goods that cost quite a ibt of money to actually use, and some luxury homes, yachts and airplanes seem to fit into that category... and some of us somewhat normies consider ourselves as getting close to reaching fuck you status, reaching fuck you status or being multiples above our target fuck you status, but still if we start to compare our lifestyles to the lifestyles of the rich and famous (the filthy rich) then we likely realize that there is still quite a bit of a gap.. and then maybe there could be questions regarding if we are already established rich or if we are just new rich (and may have even been somewhat bumped out of our feelings of rich status in recent times, perhaps?).

This is the kind of deal I'm hoping for. Even if I don't get a lambo it's a nice profit to make.

https://bitsonline.com/lamborghini-bitcoin-saddington/

... having bought his first bitcoin way back in 2011. When he bought in, the bitcoin price was $2.52.

Come October 2017, and Saddington’s cheap investment from 2011 had earned enough profit to allow him to purchase the Lamborghini. Rather than selling his coins at an exchange and buying the car with fiat, however, Saddington made the entire purchase with bitcoin.

Based on what he paid for the bitcoins in 2011, Saddington said his car only cost around $115. Profit from the skyrocketing bitcoin price took care of the rest.

He bought the car in despite the Bitcoin Lambo memes warning against buying a car with the rapidly-appreciating bitcoin. Saddington acknowledged that his purchase may end up costing him $20 million in the future as bitcoin’s value goes up. “But sometimes you just have to reward yourself,” he said.

At a guess if he'd hodled he would be a multi millionaire by now. Maybe I won't be getting a lambo after all.

I registered here in 2011 after discovering I could play poker for bitcoin.

I have sold little bits to do things like take a trip with my wife.

But ultimately I have bought the dips enough to replace those sold coins.  Part of it is my ethos.  I do not really need all that much stuff.  In fact in the end I just might make all of you richer.

“Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.” -somebody important

I accepted long ago I will either be a genius for holding, or a fool.

We will see.

And that seems to be another angle that if you end up selling smaller amounts of BTC (in the 5% to 10% arena), then it becomes a lot more likely (or easier) that you will be able to replace a decent proportion of the amount that you sold.  Selling 25% or more becomes much more difficult to replace without taking what is likely unnecessary risk or causing yourself to be overly uncomfortable in living your life (even while increasing your standard of living).

[Popkon6]

Please only Boobs, ass, n pussys hhh pussy and tits can be combined !

Just kidding... post WHATEVER you Like


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Just Fun bro