Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I had the same dream. Bitcoin price fell to under a few dollars for a few minutes. The dream quickly became a nightmare when I tried to buy the dip but my internet kept failing, my password kept getting rejected and my computer kept lagging. And as I kept trying to press the buy button, Bitcoin shot 70k, 80k, 90k and over 100k. I had no chance of buying.  

Ever wake up, angry at the world?  

I have never had such terrible dreams, but I somehow thought whether such a situation was possible, and I suggested that it was theoretically possible. Suppose that a situation happens when a terrible force majeure happens that collapses the price of bitcoin, all exchanges become unavailable, no one can buy anything, but when everything is restored after a while, the price of bitcoin will be just cosmic, 100k or more. And only those who have bitcoin on a cold wallet will win, and those who waited were left with nothing. These are just my thoughts, of course, but who knows.

one thing for sure.

You have to be like JJG just DCA

JJG would likely be scared as fuck, if such a situation were to happen - even though historically, we have had situations in which the BTC price dropped way below expectations due to some kinds of an aberrations and sometimes the aberrations will be contained on one or a few exchanges, and sometimes the aberration takes a bit longer to work itself out - and for sure those kinds of moments are scary because confidence is rattled. even when there seems to be no real explanation concerning why the price is dropping so much.. and maybe we find out the reason (if any?) at a later time.

You may as well do it until we reach 30k (hint at least until 2024)

There is some truth in what you are saying Philip - but there is also some problematic aspects to what you are saying.

First of all, a strict form of DCA would not concern itself very much with price - but just appreciate that in the long term the BTC price is going to be higher than it is today, whether buying at $17k-ish, buying at $30k-ish, buying at $69k-ish, buying at $8k or buying at some other amount.  One of the main things is trying to be ballpark-ishly correct in terms of direction over a longer period of time and there may well even be a decent amount of uncertainty in regards how much time might be spent DCA'ing.. whether it is a year or two or maybe 4-10 years or longer.. yet if the fundamental assessments regarding the underlying asset (BTC in this case) end up being correct, then there will be very strong likelihood that DCA'ing has paid off, and may well pay off better than any other strategies of buying the dip or lump sum buying or various other kinds of trading strategies.

You are still suggesting some kind of a hybrid model of DCA'ing that attempts to take advantage of buying the dip, too.. it's not really wrong.. but becomes somewhat problematic to be throwing in a lot BTC price prediction details, even though I cannot really disagree with the idea of BTC prices currently being low based on a variety of indicators.. .. I find most relevant the 200-week moving average, which is above $24k and then 100-week moving average, which is around $38k.

I think we are drifting downwards due to fed rate fear. Everyone want to see the Fed do 0.50 or maybe even 0.25 and they all fear fed doing 0.75

Even you likely realize that there is a lot more going on in BTC that goes beyond what the Fed is doing or might be doing.. but surely, you do like to hang on to some of these narrow and likely wrong theories that seems to attribute much more causal relation than actually exists.. and I am hesitating going into any further details at this point.....

Of course, there is some correctness to your assertion that we still have a lot of downwards BTC price pressures, so we likely cannot consider that the bottom is in until we are able to move up.. and maybe even get close to $20k.. and that still might not be enough... .. yet even with quite a few bearish signs and uncertainties, there are also ways in which some of the negative BTC price pressures can be spun in positive ways.. which likely still continues to scare the shit out of any bear that actually recognizes what is going on in regards to so many folks, in recent times, believing that they were holding BTC and realizing either that they did not really hold BTC - and even the vouchers to BTC that they had (or might still have) might not be resolved for many years, and it could end up being resolved in ways that either screw them out of their presumed BTC exposure or ends up paying them pennies on the dollar or maybe close to 50% if they were to happen to get lucky in terms of any later resolution that might play out in the coming years..

....and in the meantime, they have to decide if they are going to re-establish exposure to bitcoin.. and perhaps some of them may well have learned that they might need to figure out how to HOLD BTC in their own ways.. rather than relying on third parties, even though not everyone learned that lesson, either... and there are likely quite a few folks learning the wrong lessons, such as believing that they might need to hedge by buying IBonds or some other retarded resolution that may contribute to their NOT having sufficient or adequate exposure (or preparations) in case the BTC price ends up going up from here rather than the down or sideways that you may well be attributing more weight than deserved... so some of the folks who had been waiting for lower (or the same) BTC prices might end up with a surprise in the other direction.. and who can we blame for that lack of perspective.. except largely people have to take responsibilities for their preparations to make sure that they are not getting too much drawn into possible false narratives that contribute to their not adequately/sufficiently pee paring their lil selfies for UPpity.. (again)

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[psycodad]

Peak FUD (<= bottom is in):

<snip>
(Bloomberg) -- Crypto-assets that promised radical change in how people pay, save and invest have turned into the “bubble of a generation,” highlighting the need for stricter regulation and risk management, according to European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta.

<snip>

Crypto-assets should also be taxed according to their social costs, according to Panetta.

<snip>

I agree, it should quickly get taxed before going to total irrelevance..

* psycodad is a cycle older now and while getting upset about these twats 5 yrs ago, he now just smiles and has another drink - knowing that time works for him.

[JayJuanGee]

I had the same dream. Bitcoin price fell to under a few dollars for a few minutes. The dream quickly became a nightmare when I tried to buy the dip but my internet kept failing, my password kept getting rejected and my computer kept lagging. And as I kept trying to press the buy button, Bitcoin shot 70k, 80k, 90k and over 100k. I had no chance of buying.  

Ever wake up, angry at the world?  

I read this and it almost felt so real like I was experiencing it with you in real time. It brings back memories of times when my laptop computer would freeze while trying to make a purchase on an ecommerce website. I would say that people who would be most pained are those who are waiting for bitcoin to dip below 10k before they buy only to wake up and discover that bitcoin is now 30k plus.

It seems pretty strange that in late 2020, even a billionaire like Michael Saylor had described the feeling of NOT having enough BTC, even though in his early days of buying BTC, he was buying 10k+ BTC at a time.  In the very first purchases, he bought around 17k BTC for himself and his company bought around 30k, and now his company is up to around 130k BTC, and likely he is starting to feel that he has enough.. I hate to speak for Saylor because he does seem to be a bit of a different cat, even though he had described a phenomena that seems to exist with many of us who have those feelings of NOT having enough BTC that are likely stronger in the earlier days of stacking of sats.. and for me, I believe that I had that feeling for my first 3 years of stacking from about late 2013 to early 2017.. and there were a couple of points in which I perceptively felt less and less pressure.. like I had enough.. but they were stages, neither absolute nor fixed feelings.

By the way, I understand why some of the prominent folks in BTC will frequently proclaim that "you can never have enough BTC," and I tend to think differently about the matter, even though I understand that some people want more and more and more.. and maybe they are justified in that... those are somewhat discretionary perspectives in regards, to what kind of a status that is expected, and some of the considerations may well be age and ambitions and sometimes there also might be some legacy-creation type ambitions. which surely are understandable how people are going to vary in these kinds of considerations.

I just saw CB got six (!) in a row, so we reached the bottom now for sure, no? 

No.

Staff representatives at the European Central Bank are disappointed that a planned pay rise doesn’t make up for inflation that’s currently five times the official 2% target.

I am tempted to recommend them to dca into BTC, but I am not sure how well that advice would be received.

Just do it... as Nike say theywould.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[WatChe]

Staff representatives at the European Central Bank are disappointed that a planned pay rise doesn’t make up for inflation that’s currently five times the official 2% target.

I am tempted to recommend them to dca into BTC, but I am not sure how well that advice would be received.

The above reference article says: " With inflation in Germany and the euro area likely around 8.5% this year, it means a substantial loss in purchasing power. " and the pay hike is not enough to tackle this record inflation.
The problem with salary class people is that they only stick with there monthly salary and don't invest or do anyother side business ( or work). I too being a salary class person was living a hand to mouth life when I was relying only on monthly salary. The annual salary rise is proportional to inflation, so basically your living standard remains same or goes down with time. I am comfortable since I started side business of investing in cryptocurrency.

The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.

[fillippone]

I have been absent from the thread for a while, I hope it hasn't been posted yet, but I found the following image so full of wisdom.

[OutOfMemory]

Staff representatives at the European Central Bank are disappointed that a planned pay rise doesn’t make up for inflation that’s currently five times the official 2% target.

I am tempted to recommend them to dca into BTC, but I am not sure how well that advice would be received.

The above reference article says: " With inflation in Germany and the euro area likely around 8.5% this year, it means a substantial loss in purchasing power. " and the pay hike is not enough to tackle this record inflation.
The problem with salary class people is that they only stick with there monthly salary and don't invest or do anyother side business ( or work). I too being a salary class person was living a hand to mouth life when I was relying only on monthly salary. The annual salary rise is proportional to inflation, so basically your living standard remains same or goes down with time. I am comfortable since I started side business of investing in cryptocurrency.

The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.

More and more people were barely making it until next month/salary last year, and the inflation worsened things. Mostly families got hit, with cost for living, food, mobility, energy and school going over the average inflational rise. Debt rates in the private area is growing rapidly, as well as poverty.
Now there's an additional psychological problem: Whenever a normal person recieves extra cash, it mostly gets spent on things this person does not really need. Fpr example, going on vacation for a few days longer, buying the more expensive 2nd hand car, a new television set or even presents, ...whatever.
The "bad mechanics" behind this behaviour is that people map the past and present onto the future, so if they made it until date with an amount of xy per month, they think they can get along like this in the future, too. While observers like us know that people get less for a dollar each year, pay more for the same goods and services each year, i don't have to really tell you how centralized fiat money is "working". Most people don't look at extra money at what it is: A replacement for money they would have spent on other occasions in the past, if they would have had it.
I was in debt when i was young, and i saw everybody around me being in debt doing this, but i plunged every extra cash into my bank account in the reds. When i upped in income, i didn't spend more accordingly, i didn't get a bigger apartment, newer car and such. I made it out in a couple of years, watching people getting wrecked and sometimes jailed because they couldn't adjust. But maybe we didn't really share the same goal, being free of (expensive) debt. At least some of them must have expected to get along like this forever without facing real consequences?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

buddy the anchor pulling towards 16k

[macson]

BREAKING: Binance Bitcoin reserves are fully collateralized, following proof-of-reserves and proof-of-liabilities verification by audit firm Mazars - The Block 

 Source: https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1600485008304754690

what drama is this?  is binance starting to lose customers?  get out your Bitcoin from CEX...

[eXPHorizon]

BREAKING: Binance Bitcoin reserves are fully collateralized, following proof-of-reserves and proof-of-liabilities verification by audit firm Mazars - The Block  

 Source: https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1600485008304754690

what drama is this?  is binance starting to lose customers?  get out your Bitcoin from CEX...

Yes indeed quick get them off CEX and into DEX (HUE HUE HUE HUE) or better at keep them in wallets .. which makes Bitcoin , what ? Useless Crypto in General needs Exchanges cause if it comes down to Cash... it dies

[bitcoinPsycho]

Don't know what he said but I bet its retarded

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

I can still read his garbage, and whenever i feel tempted to reply i keep telling myself: "it isn't worth it, it isn't worth it...".
Like quitting smoking  

Don't know what he said but I bet its retarded

You would have won that bet 

[bitcoinPsycho]

I can still read his garbage, and whenever i feel tempted to reply i keep telling myself: "it isn't worth it, it isn't worth it...".
Like quitting smoking  

Don't know what he said but I bet its retarded

You would have won that bet 

For the record he's the only person on my ignore list

[twiki]

buddy the anchor pulling towards 16k

Isn't that good? If I'm not mistaken, you were one of those who always bought bitcoins with all their free money.

A bear market can't last forever, (it's still a great opportunity for me to make a little more Sat).

[d_eddie]

I can still read his garbage, and whenever i feel tempted to reply i keep telling myself: "it isn't worth it, it isn't worth it...".
Like quitting smoking  

Don't know what he said but I bet its retarded

You would have won that bet 

For the record he's the only person on my ignore list

+1

He only got on mine after I saw his scroll-me-fast posts fill up half a page. That's too much scrolling even for a patient guy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

For the record he's the only person on my ignore list

I can't remind of any other user on WO that would be safe-to-ignore (EDIT: lately), honestly, so i think i can relate.
It's just that i decided against using Ignore at some point, because freedom of speech and shit, but i'd never expect anybody to follow this idea.
Sometimes it's a burden and a good test at the same time