Sunday musings...
Most people right now:
they don't believe in bitcoin
Well, more for me, then
#haiku
It does seem like the market is getting a little exhausted. I think the folks who got in at the bottom have likely all sold now. I’m not sure where the increased selling is coming from that’s holding the price down still. I’m not sure how much longer this will continue, but I definitely don’t expect it to remain a trend after April of next year due to the halving.
The selling is coming from people who bought around $16k and around $24700 and have waited so long for a breakout that is not coming as expected. Bitcoin took some lows(liquidity) around $24700 and by expectations from technical stand point, that was enough fuel to see Bicoin hit the $36k region. But as that have not happened and Bitcoin continues to compress in the ascending triangle, some people are giving it a second thought that maybe, there will be another appreciable down move before the much expected bull run.
Yes. Good luck with those down before up expectations, including how low that you are placing your bets.
No BIG deal to have some "down before up" buy orders out there, as long as you are not necessarily feeling any kind of expectation that they are going to fill.
It seems that in the past few weeks, I had posted in another thread and disclosed that I had around 2.5% of my total BTC allocated investment funds that are in cash, and so currently, I have BTC buy orders all the way down to $13k-ish, but I really don't expect anything to fill lower than $24k-ish.. but sure if some of them end up filling lower than $24k, then so be it, but I don't expect it and I don't even want it...
Also, it seems that the odds are becoming greater and greater that we are not even going to get a revisiting of the 200-week moving average, which is
currently at $27,203.
Sure, the 200-week moving average has not shown itself to be impenetrable, but it still well me be the case that we are moving back into more normal times.
Remember 2015, when BTC had spent right around 8 months mostly dancing in the mid-$200s, towards the end of that period, the BTC price made one last dash down towards attempting to break below $200 before it shot up to $500 and then spent the next 6 months in the lower $400s before largely resuming uppity, but surely gradually building up over the next year or so to top off in late 2017...
And, we were kind of spoiled in 2019.. even though we got the crazy ass macro dip in early 2020 - even though a lot of people consider that to have had been quite an aberation of a "down before up" kind of a situation.. but maybe that down before up did end up helping out the up to take place and then bitcoin recovered better than any other asset, if we were to measure from just before the March 2020 dip and then to see where BTC went in 2021 including accounting for its 2022 corrections, as depressing as those 2022 corrections might feel for some of us, including the nearly 8 month period of breaching below the 200-week moving average, so people expecting to return below the 200-week moving average may well be engaged in wishes, rather than realistic financial and psychological preparations for more likely scenarios...
and I am not even saying that the odds are greater than 50/50 that the 200-week moving average might not be tested again before UPpity takes place.. and I am also not saying that UPpity is guaranteed, even though you will feel real frustrated if you have not prepared for UPpity, just in case it might happen, and you don't even really need that much in order to be prepared.. for the outliers of $1 or 2 million this cycle.. hey.. not even giving them very high odds, but there are a lot of points in between $30k and $2million that have higher odds, and whether they happen or not, seemingly smarter folks are prepared by accumulating and HODLing some BTC, just in case.
While there is sense in this, there are chances that it may not happen that way. It is possible the present reluctance for expansion might just be a way to test the patience of holders and wear the weak hands out.
true dat.
In my opinion, I don't expected any deep drop in price anymore. That era is gone and soon volume will begin to increase as well as the price.
That's the spirit!!!!
I am glad that you moved away from the earlier doom and gloom in your post, but we know it is good to be prepared for either direction, which surely is a thing that is possible to accomplish.
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