Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

[..]

 Hmmm  And how well I know, about them. Their posting, and trading/thought patterns, are predictable, at this point.

 ..What I haven't revealed so far is that I've read this thread almost exclusively, 15-30hrs a week on average, since Jan 11th this year. I literally read every page (good bit of skimming at times, admittedly - no other way, if going through that much..) since back when we were at the 3900's of posts & Arcas, Empowering, Luno, 'Doc' Holliday (I miss his wry humor..) & Goat/Loaded were still seen posting in here.

 I just made the acct not because I just 'discovered' trading or crypto/etc, but because I simply don't like to waste people's time w/ yet more repetitive dribble, there's already 6k of it in here ffs.. lol. If I'm gonna post, I want it to have some effort put into, so there's a small chance at least 1 person might find it of any value, instead of moar spam. So.. that effort? THAT is why I waited that long to make this acct. I procrastinated. The Activity:5 is a lie.. xD

 But, I love this place. I truly appreciate it, esp. TER, BJA, Keyser, Adam, Amino, Blitz & even Jorge & Fonzie's trollishness. And I did learn some tricks from it. Nevertheless, I find myself rolling my eyes knowingly, with a faint smirk, to all these ignorant grand proclamations of 'sUingle d1gitz dAwq' '$9.99' & '7-50k within 2014' from the same amused cognizance that all you veterans experience ;p  I just did it as a 'Guest', until yesterday.

 As for BTC itself, I didn't know it existed until Sept '13. In Oct. I knew about prices weekly. By Nov., I knew about them twice a day. In early Nov. I bought my very first BTC. In very late Nov., after some epiphany of curiosity & googling, & came upon Cryptsy. I sent them .01 only, thinking they may easily be a scam. After couple test trades & withdrawals went through fine, only then did I send moar in.

 I missed the wave. Could've been a thousandnaire like you guys by now had I got in most of these small-time alts back in Oct-to-Mid-Late-Nov at the latest. But by the time I was familiar w/ it all, it was too late. Nov 18 Congress 'endorsement' & all the crazy Cryptsy/alt price explosions had mostly taken place already, it was dumping time, and I indeed lost a good portion of the equity I had been lucky enough to make.

[..]

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low.

 I do panic-buy, and short, and sell. Too much in fact. But I've done too little before, too. A balance is crucial. Here's an example : The last time Stamp was around 533-537, that was a great time to get out. I didn't. I knew I should've, but held. The 540's high was not able to be reached again. It had to not only reach it, but BREAK thru it in order to be safely confident about a greater high, the new bull minitrend continuing, etc. It didn't even have the fuel to reach it. Obviously Huobi & Co are desperate to not correct further, and keep going up, but it's just not happening. The correction has to occur, and at least a moderate bit farther than merely 3020/481.

 I do over-invest, it's easier to be on the safer side of trading when one has more capital to play with. But that will come in due time. A good thing about smaller sums is that, well, if you do get wiped out, you can find the same small sum to invest again within a month or a quarter's wages. I've done it before, sadly, and it's far from people here's mortgages money & life savings etc

 Too desperate and you lose. Too complacent/long-term and you lose too. I've lost since 2005. (stocks & FX, not crypto....) Some years w/o any trading, some w/ holding on to bad practices, 'holding on' for 'long-term' in various ways. Balance is key, speaking from experience.

[..] Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5.

 No question. Too bad I was doing FX & not crypto, back in '11-'12 & most of '13.

[..] ..so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

 Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom 

 ..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p  Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.

You may want to consider a form of dollar cost averaging.  That's what i do.  You can tailor the dollar cost averaging to your budget. 

I had a similar situation to yours, in that I started with my research into bitcoin in November 2013, yet I had $30k that I could invest into bitcoin.  Accordingly, I decided to spread that $30k over 6 months, b/c I knew that BTC had just had a pretty large bullrun (at the end of November 2013).

Anyhow, my point is that you could budget as little as $50 a month for your investment, and it will add up over time.  Then you could invest daily, weekly, monthly or whatever increment is comfortable for you.  In the beginning you may want to front load a little bit.  So let's say you have $2,000 and then thereafter $50 per month.  You determine your strategy, but you may say that you want to invest the whole $2000 right away (which I would NOT do, but to each his own), or you may say that you would strategically invest $500 for each of the first two weeks, and then you would invest $250 per week for each of the four weeks after that and then go to your $50 per month plan... or you could figure out something more active.  I did daily purchases for my first three weeks or something like that.

Surely, you seem more eager than planning out a strategy, but once you figure out the variety of your expenses, then you should NOT feel compelled to leverage (or borrow money) in order to invest.  Leveraging is more of an advance player's move who is really familiar and confident in his/her ability to make the money back b/c of experience in having had done it repeated times and having a back up position in case the leverage does NOT pay off. 

Anyhow, my point is once you build up various systems of investing, then you build up a nest egg.. and maybe one or two or five years down the road, you can transfer that nest egg into something that is really ground floor and where you have built up your capital (that is how I had gotten my $30k that i had available to invest into btc in the end of 2013 and that was NOT my total available money, only the money that I had consciously allocated for crypto investing).

[octaft]

*snip*

 Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom  

 ..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p  Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.

Ah, slowrolled by a lurker! I respect your approach, actually. I did the same thing as you, read for months and months before I even created an account.

You're 100% correct that I don't know you, which is why I never spoke in certainties. I just went on the information you gave us in your posts, which was relatively quite a bit for only 7 posts, you've got to admit. It was enough for me to be comfortable with the assumptions I made even though they turned out to be somewhat incorrect. When the risk is not great, and here it was not, I'm fine working with limited information.

If my post does not help you, I'm pretty sure it will help someone. If you feel you've got the knowledge, who am I to argue? Now you've got to apply it. But based on the last portion of your response, you knew that already.

[shmadz]

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating  

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.

7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct? No, it's a video card. If so, did it pay for itself, yes. and for how long were you able to use it? I'm still using it, but not for mining anymore, it still kicks some serious ass when it comes to video games though. Did you have to retire it? no.  Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too? I will never sell this thing! It will be put in a museum some day!

My answers in RED  

Thanks... for your responses.

I agree that you get even a bigger bonus out of your purchase of the item (the 7970) if you are able to multi-purpose it.

yup, it's pretty cool, all 4 can still play video games just fine, but only 1 out of those 4 can still mine at more than 80% load.

(that one good card was still doing about 120% above spec before I simply gave up mining on scrypt - not enough amps left to feed the SHA-256 asics, though I am tempted by the scrypt asics, I think that one chain will always be considered stronger than all the others, and anything serious will be built as a sidechain of the main chain.)

[JayJuanGee]

<snip>
 Shmadz does NOT strike me as the saving type, but possibly he is?

nope. you got me pegged, definitely NOT the saving type

 I mined a bunch of different coins, and have almost none left. Luckily, if things go the way I hope they are gonna go, then "almost none" will be "just enough".

I am glad you did NOT take my comment personally, b/c I did NOT mean it to be in any kind of judgmental way. I already understand that people have a variety of personalities and some styles will NOT easily fit some people.   Accordingly, each of us looks for, and hopefully finds the style(s) that works for him/her.

Personally, I would go crazy, if I were to employ a form of balls to the walls type investing.  I prefer incremental investments and continuous readjustments.  Though I am sure over the years my style has evolved somewhat.  Nonetheless, I have always been somewhat of a saver... yet I have quite a few friends who are NOT of that personality type. 

Actually, probably the majority of people have pretty loose savings plans (whether rich or poor), and certainly, the ones with the larger paychecks can get away with more screw ups... but even well to do people can get into a pickle if they overextend themselves into consuming way more than what is within their incomes.

[JayJuanGee]

*snip*

 Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom  

 ..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p  Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.

Ah, slowrolled by a lurker! I respect your approach, actually. I did the same thing as you, read for months and months before I even created an account.

You're 100% correct that I don't know you, which is why I never spoke in certainties. I just went on the information you gave us in your posts, which was relatively quite a bit for only 7 posts, you've got to admit. It was enough for me to be comfortable with the assumptions I made even though they turned out to be somewhat incorrect. When the risk is not great, and here it was not, I'm fine working with limited information.

If my post does not help you, I'm pretty sure it will help someone. If you feel you've got the knowledge, who am I to argue? Now you've got to apply it. But based on the last portion of your response, you knew that already.

    You are hilarious.. especially when I agree with you.  You have been less "hilarious" when we disagreed.. he he he.. whatever... 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raystonn]

$494 now.  And next we will slowly roll up to $498.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.

Killer post.

Should be made a sticky in the Newbies section.

Agreed, it's a beauty!
Might reduce bitcoin volatility by itself if stickied in newb section  .

[JorgeStolfi]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

[hdbuck]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

[Raystonn]

$494 now.  And next we will slowly roll up to $498.

check.

Next?

Hm.  Big spread.  It would be cheating to say $495.  Give the market a bit to close the spread.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Last couple days there was more and more fiat on Bitstamp - bid side always exceeded 10M, with ask in 14-15M. Last couple hours, bid side is 9M, with ask side 16M. Ratio is also worse in terms of bitcoins.

[JayJuanGee]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

Well, I will report.  I am NOT sure if I get it.  It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links... especially if someone on a quasi-anonymous thread is threatening to give me a lesson that may cause me to disappear from the forum after I am accumulated over 1,100 posts.

So, anyhow, I am NOT sure about whether I got the meaning of the Exemplary lesson, b/c I could NOT tell what it is, exactly.  Sorry about that b/c I did intend to cooperate to the extent that cooperation was within my reasonable abilities, and I was hoping that the lesson was NOT going to be anything too bad.. or voodoo or anything like that. 

Seems like I have been threatened a few times in this quasi-anonymous forum.. funny that is... i mean strange that is.

[JayJuanGee]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

[Raystonn]

$494 now.  And next we will slowly roll up to $498.

check.

Next?

Hm.  Big spread.  It would be cheating to say $495.  Give the market a bit to close the spread.

Ok, $498 now.  Next we're going to meander slowly down to $495.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raystonn]

$494 now.  And next we will slowly roll up to $498.

check.

Next?

Hm.  Big spread.  It would be cheating to say $495.  Give the market a bit to close the spread.

Ok, $498 now.  Next we're going to meander slowly down to $495.

Ok, blew past it a bit to $494.  Now here's a doozy.  Are you ready for a jump to $501?

[windjc]

Anyone notice that after the high of 3449, the chart on Houbi has been more bearish than Stamp and Finex?

Seems to be a bit more confidence about going up on Stamp and Finex, which is ironic given that they won't go up unless Houbi 1 Kanobi does first.

[silverfuture]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success"  Yet almost exclusively posts in the wall observer thread. Seems legit. Why even bother talking to this person? I have yet to glean one useful bit of information from even one of his posts.  

[windjc]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success"  Yet almost exclusively posts in the wall observer thread. Seems legit. Why even bother talking to this person? I have yet to glean one useful bit of information from even one of his posts.  

But "attack" him and 12 posters come to his defense saying "give him time." I actually have grown to believe that many bitcoiners want to convert non-believers, like its some sort of spiritual healing.

I say let him think and say what he wants, but ask him to leave, because he's an annoyance. But others want to "convert" him.