Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[pjviitas]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option! 

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!   

why?

[BitChick]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option!  

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!    

why?

I supposed I shouldn't care, but it is hard not to still get emotional about the ups and downs and it is great to see the price rising.  There will come a day when I will cash some of the coins out.  Of course it will be a very systematic sell off and at that point I might buy back some on the dips but for now I have just been holding and waiting and I don't regret it.

[pjviitas]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option!  

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!    

why?

I supposed I shouldn't care, but it is hard not to still get emotional about the ups and downs and it is great to see the price rising.  There will come a day when I will cash some of the coins out.  Of course it will be a very systematic sell off and at that point I might buy back some on the dips but for now I have just been holding and waiting and I don't regret it.

ok so your actually still speculating then

[Raystonn]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option! 

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!   

why?

Most holders do so with the goal of increasing their wealth.  The current USD/BTC price is the current measure of that wealth.  It follows that holders would very much care about USD/BTC price at all times, as they care about the value of their wealth at all times.

I should create an Android app/widget that displays wealth based on BTC holdings multiplied by USD/BTC liquidation price.  

[pjviitas]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option!  

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!    

why?

I supposed I shouldn't care, but it is hard not to still get emotional about the ups and downs and it is great to see the price rising.  There will come a day when I will cash some of the coins out.  Of course it will be a very systematic sell off and at that point I might buy back some on the dips but for now I have just been holding and waiting and I don't regret it.

ok so your actually still speculating then

I have other investments which I am "holding" and sometimes go as long as 6 months between price checks

[pjviitas]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option! 

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!   

why?

Most holders do so with the goal of increasing their wealth.  The current USD/BTC price is the current measure of that wealth.  It follows that holders would very much care about USD/BTC price at all times, as they care about the value of their wealth at all times.

I should create an Android app/widget that displays wealth based on BTC holdings multiplied by USD/BTC liquidation price.  

I just thought holders where more set-it-and-forget-it laid back types.

In any event what I was originally getting at is that people that buy and sell bitcoin on a regular basis usually get burned at one time or another...part of the learning curve.

[Guinpen]

I'll just leave this here for all of those who miss Clarkmoody's BingBong sounds:
http://bitcoinsounds.0x3d.lu/

This started out as a little dirty hack for myself but as Bitcoin is quite boring today I polished it a little and so with this post consider it as released!

Awesome!!

Would you by any chance consider publishing the source code?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitChick]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option!  

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!    

why?

I supposed I shouldn't care, but it is hard not to still get emotional about the ups and downs and it is great to see the price rising.  There will come a day when I will cash some of the coins out.  Of course it will be a very systematic sell off and at that point I might buy back some on the dips but for now I have just been holding and waiting and I don't regret it.

ok so your actually still speculating then

I have other investments which I am "holding" and sometimes go as long as 6 months between price checks

Other investments probably don't increase (or decrease) in value as fast as Bitcoin can. 

Because there are intervals in which we will sell (using the SSS plan that can be found on this board) I need to be vaguely aware of the price for that reason.  But I think it just becomes a bit addicting watching the price!  I need to find another hobby!   

[pjviitas]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option!  

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!    

why?

I supposed I shouldn't care, but it is hard not to still get emotional about the ups and downs and it is great to see the price rising.  There will come a day when I will cash some of the coins out.  Of course it will be a very systematic sell off and at that point I might buy back some on the dips but for now I have just been holding and waiting and I don't regret it.

ok so your actually still speculating then

I have other investments which I am "holding" and sometimes go as long as 6 months between price checks

Other investments probably don't increase (or decrease) in value as fast as Bitcoin can. 

Because there are intervals in which we will sell (using the SSS plan that can be found on this board) I need to be vaguely aware of the price for that reason.  But I think it just becomes a bit addicting watching the price!  I need to find another hobby!   

interesting...tell me more about this sss plan

[JorgeStolfi]

Curiosity: The OKCoin note (1008440) seems to come from their blog.  Note 1008442 seems to be a question by a customer:

https://www.okcoin.com/t-1008442.html

标题:停了银行卡汇款。充值码最小一万怎么办？
【紧急通知】OKCoin平台防诈骗指南 1#发表于:2014-04-18 22:05:19  - IP:112.241.*.*

停了银行卡汇款。充值码最小一万怎么办？难道不让小散玩了？

Title: Stop the bank card payment. Minimum ten thousand recharge code how to do?
[emergency notification] OKCoin platform Fraud Guide # 1 Posted :2014-04-18 22:05:19 - IP:. 112.241 * *.

Stop the bank card payment. Minimum ten thousand recharge code how to do? Do not let small, scattered play?

If I understand correctly, their "recharge code" alternative has a 10,000 CNY minimum, and, since bank transfers are closed, the client is asking how one can do occasional trading with small amounts.

[BitChick]

I wonder how many people have bought into bitcoin and been killed short term with drops. So they become bitter and start shorting it and then get killed on its way up. Then preach to everyone that the market is manipulated and they predict doom for all on their way out.

duh...ya...thats been everybody on here at one time or another.  Its part of the learning curve.

Everyone?  If you don't trade you can't short and get burned.  This is why holding is always a great option!  

Hubby and I have just been buying and holding for a little over a year now.

I am not talking about holders...I am talking about people that actually care about the day to day price of bitcoin

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!    

why?

I supposed I shouldn't care, but it is hard not to still get emotional about the ups and downs and it is great to see the price rising.  There will come a day when I will cash some of the coins out.  Of course it will be a very systematic sell off and at that point I might buy back some on the dips but for now I have just been holding and waiting and I don't regret it.

ok so your actually still speculating then

I have other investments which I am "holding" and sometimes go as long as 6 months between price checks

Other investments probably don't increase (or decrease) in value as fast as Bitcoin can. 

Because there are intervals in which we will sell (using the SSS plan that can be found on this board) I need to be vaguely aware of the price for that reason.  But I think it just becomes a bit addicting watching the price!  I need to find another hobby!   

interesting...tell me more about this sss plan

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

[Equus]

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!    

why?

So we can decide when to buy more!

[BitChick]

As a "holder" I still totally care about the day to day price!    

why?

So we can decide when to buy more!

That's true too!     Although I am getting low on fiat.  I am now Bitcoin "rich" and fiat "poor." 

[JorgeStolfi]

PS. OKCoin's response to that client question, right below it, apparently says that they have only one broker for their recharge code system, and his minimum is "1 W" (一万 = Yi wàn = one wan = 10,000); but they expect to have more brokers eventually.

您好，目前只有一个代理商，充值最小额度是一W，后续会增加小额代理，方便更多用户充值，感谢您对OK的支持
谢谢！

[Raystonn]

PS. OKCoin's response to that client question, right below it, apparently says that they have only one broker for their recharge code system, and his minimum is "1 W" (一万 = Yi wàn = one wan = 10,000); but they expect to have more brokers eventually.

您好，目前只有一个代理商，充值最小额度是一W，后续会增加小额代理，方便更多用户充值，感谢您对OK的支持
谢谢！

Tough on the little guy.  That actually makes me think we could be close to breaking out big to the upside.  If the big players can keep the 99% out, the market is going up.

[Post-Cosmic]

 Guys I think I spawned a wave of newbie acct creation. See all these folks w/ 1-10 posts suddenly popping up in more frequent regularity than before..? ;o

 Also Billy, don'tcha know, that the great rise from 340.. (which caught me by surprise, I had made SO much shorting dangerously, from 408, all the way down to 350's, when it showed it couldn't even climb back pathetically to 416, but then, I thought it'd keep going to 300's-320's so I re-shorted at 360..and held it far too long.. Only got convinced to go long way past that, around 460's.. =/)

 ..was obviously caused by some individuals/agencies enterprisingly taking the bull by the horns & asking the PBoC themselves, on Apr 10th, what exactly was really up w/ them 'hating on' & rumors of 'wanting to ban' bitcoin, to which they absolutely shocked the world (a shock that exacerbated how violent the bounce from 339/2200's was) by responding "..What? Bits of coins? Coin bit fermented tea leaves..? Ohh right, those tokens. We don't care about those, they're just an internet nerd joke play-money type-thing like collectible stamps, or antiques etc. 'Banning' something like that doesn't even enter the realm of considerations."

 Then, on TOP of that, OKCoin told everyone how proud they were of their brand new plans for deploying the very first Bitcoin ATM in mainland Sinaland, along w/ some others yammering something about software Point-of-Sale 'ATM'-functionality being designed as well. So, that's what made the entirety of chinese bitcoinland to cream their pants in a collective 'Stamp-BTCe-dominating' '2H-chart-price-rise-stairway' frenzy that could not reach a zenith of relief until all the way @ 3450's.

 So looking back, one can definitely attest this was not a groundless bull run. It nevertheless caused a major shift in sentiment all around, and makes it most probable that dropping below 390's again is a shrunkenly tiny possibility, while also indicating a break above 610-615 to be rather unlikely at this point, until the next major news/events are able to propel the trend beyond a ~400-600 channel in either direction.

[Raystonn]

PS. OKCoin's response to that client question, right below it, apparently says that they have only one broker for their recharge code system, and his minimum is "1 W" (一万 = Yi wàn = one wan = 10,000); but they expect to have more brokers eventually.

您好，目前只有一个代理商，充值最小额度是一W，后续会增加小额代理，方便更多用户充值，感谢您对OK的支持
谢谢！

Tough on the little guy.  That actually makes me think we could be close to breaking out big to the upside.  If the big players can keep the 99% out, the market is going up.

More thinking on this.  The big players want to increase their BTC holdings at current prices before the next rally.  This would normally cause prices to increase due to a large volume of buys.  So they need another way to do it.

Steps taken by big players:

1) The big players block any rallies with sell walls and negative news releases.
2) The big players in China then force the smaller players to sell BTC with the recent China manipulation, such as shutting down anyone with less than $10K.  The smaller players panic and sell out their BTC to the big players at prices much better than what they'd have achieved without this manipulation.
3) Once this process is complete, the big players are ready for the next rally.  They replace the sell walls with buy walls, and replace the negative news with positive news.
4) To the moon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

Guys I think I spawned a wave of newbie acct creation. See all these folks w/ 1-10 posts suddenly popping up in more frequent regularity than before..? ;o

 Also Billy, don'tcha know, that the great rise from 340.. (which caught me by surprise, I had made SO much shorting dangerously, from 408, all the way down to 350's, when it showed it couldn't even climb back pathetically to 416, but then, I thought it'd keep going to 300's-320's so I re-shorted at 360..and held it far too long.. Only got convinced to go long way past that, around 460's.. =/)

 ..was obviously caused by some individuals/agencies enterprisingly taking the bull by the horns & asking the PBoC themselves, on Apr 10th, what exactly was really up w/ them 'hating on' & rumors of 'wanting to ban' bitcoin, to which they absolutely shocked the world (a shock that exacerbated how violent the bounce from 339/2200's was) by responding "..What? Bits of coins? Coin bit fermented tea leaves..? Ohh right, those tokens. We don't care about those, they're just an internet nerd joke play-money type-thing like collectible stamps, or antiques etc. 'Banning' something like that doesn't even enter the realm of considerations."

 Then, on TOP of that, OKCoin told everyone how proud they were of their brand new plans for deploying the very first Bitcoin ATM in mainland Sinaland, along w/ some others yammering something about software Point-of-Sale 'ATM'-functionality being designed as well. So, that's what made the entirety of chinese bitcoinland to cream their pants in a collective 'Stamp-BTCe-dominating' '2H-chart-price-rise-stairway' frenzy that could not reach a zenith of relief until all the way @ 3450's.

 So looking back, one can definitely attest this was not a groundless bull run. It nevertheless caused a major shift in sentiment all around, and makes it most probable that dropping below 390's again is a shrunkenly tiny possibility, while also indicating a break above 610-615 to be rather unlikely at this point, until the next major news/events are able to propel the trend beyond a ~400-600 channel in either direction.

It's entirely possible your analysis is correct and I really think the PBoC has bigger problems to worry about, but if sentiment can shift this easily, then it can also shift back this easily. Something is rotten in China and it probably has something to do with one or more of the major exchanges. Something vaguely gox-like may be brewing. It may be a false positive, but I can smell it. The volume and price movements are uncannily similar to March so far. This is my uninformed opinion and doesn't prove anything, obviously. Price movements are similar until they are not. Trends continue until they don't.

I'm not going to say "I told you so" to those who were saying we'd never see the $400s again, and I won't say "I told you so" to the $300s either if that happens. I'm just saying their are too many unknowns to justify me buying higher unless I get some compelling new information.