Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[KeyserSoze]

Interesting Neo & Bee article:
https://medium.com/economic-thoughts/31667a1d1243

[eiskalt]

PS. OKCoin's response to that client question, right below it, apparently says that they have only one broker for their recharge code system, and his minimum is "1 W" (一万 = Yi wàn = one wan = 10,000); but they expect to have more brokers eventually.

您好，目前只有一个代理商，充值最小额度是一W，后续会增加小额代理，方便更多用户充值，感谢您对OK的支持
谢谢！

Tough on the little guy.  That actually makes me think we could be close to breaking out big to the upside.  If the big players can keep the 99% out, the market is going up.

More thinking on this.  The big players want to increase their BTC holdings at current prices before the next rally.  This would normally cause prices to increase due to a large volume of buys.  So they need another way to do it.

Steps taken by big players:

1) The big players block any rallies with sell walls and negative news releases.
2) The big players in China then force the smaller players to sell BTC with the recent China manipulation, such as shutting down anyone with less than $10K.  The smaller players panic and sell out their BTC to the big players at prices much better than what they'd have achieved without this manipulation.
3) Once this process is complete, the big players are ready for the next rally.  They replace the sell walls with buy walls, and replace the negative news with positive news.
4) To the moon.

Thank you, this made me laugh for the first time today.

To resume:

1. It is bullish to keep 99% of potential buyers out.
2. Big players will buy huge amounts of bitcoins, because they know, there will be nobody who could buy from them later at higher price.

[bucktotal]

may or may not be so relevant, but Cavirtex has broken its major descending triangle. lets see if the resistance starts acting like support.

[hlynur]

sorry for OT, just in case somebody's interested:

Documentary "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin" premieres at Tribeca Film Festical
5:30 PM wednesday 4/23 at SVA Theatre 2 Beatrice in New York.
http://tribecafilm.com/filmguide/53286d0ab57ce982ad000163-rise-and-rise-of-bitcoin

After the movie there will be a conversation with director Nicholas Mross, the film’s protagonist Dan Mross, and Charles Shrem.

[JorgeStolfi]

Also about Neo & Bee, the employees spea out:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23cjd9/the_full_picture_of_former_neo_bee_employees/

[BitChick]

sorry for OT, just in case somebody's interested:

Documentary "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin" premieres at Tribeca Film Festical
5:30 PM wednesday 4/23 at SVA Theatre 2 Beatrice in New York.
http://tribecafilm.com/filmguide/53286d0ab57ce982ad000163-rise-and-rise-of-bitcoin

After the movie there will be a conversation with director Nicholas Mross, the film’s protagonist Dan Mross, and Charles Shrem.

Will it be available online at some point?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[KeyserSoze]

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

When did I guess wrong? That is my first prediction thread ever as far as I know...It's also the first time I've published my opinion online (GeekCipher).

Where have you been, Cipher? Nearly a month missing from your own "analysis" thread.

It's odd we don't see you here now that you were so incredibly far off the mark with your random price guesses. I'm sorry, I meant "math." That's what you claimed to use, right, when Arepo inquired about your prediction?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871.msg5816338#msg5816338

I mean you assured us we'd only drop to $580 in March (maybe 550 at lowest), not $450 as we did. Your price acumen also led us to believe we'd see $694 on 4/16 -- why are we at $480? At nearly $220 off the mark that means you're wrong by roughly 45%! Eekgads, man. I guess it's back to peddling software codes and other fishy Bitcoin enterprises...

Here is the post I originally wrote to you but did not submit because I wanted to give you some rope... Enjoy! (imagine this post starts with you asking, "When did I guess wrong?")

-----
You haven't given it enough time yet. You understand humans don't know the future, right? Being correct once or twice or even 3 times about a future event doesn't mean you know anything more about the future than my 3-year old niece or my pet dog. It may make you observant. It may make you fortunate. It doesn't make you future gnostic. Fortunately for your efforts humans are superstitious.

You made the prediction a day ago. I think most people here are assuming it looked like there would be a drop of up to $20-$100 and then believe it'll rise. You didn't exactly go out on a limb. But of course the first thing you do on the drop, to gain trust, is jump into a thread you do not participate in and declare your genius to the world. Your post history has nearly ZERO price prediction before yesterday.

Look, whatever scam you're up to just hasn't played out yet. You're involved in every scammy/scummy Bitcoin enterprise in existence. It is leading to only one end, and that is you running with other people's BTC without them receiving whatever you promised. The community doesn't need any more of YOU.

Seriously, you're selling gift cards, used electronics (oh, by the way you declared you're starting a "bitcoin museum" and are looking for stuff "super cheap"), video game codes, ASIC hosting (how generous of you), hashing power payouts, prognostication services (preparing to sell this, or just driving people to your awesome WP site?), buying used Casascius coins "for fun", etc. You are a walking scam waiting to explode.

You're in the "gaining trust" phase either for a bigger event or waiting to see which smaller scam offers quickest/biggest returns, have likely scammed others in the past (or perhaps you're a young gamer and burgeoning thief?), and are ready to move into the phase where you either start taking payments for pyramids, fortune telling services or start selling more expensive stuff that never arrives.

Or perhaps how long until folks realize their "hosted" machines are supplying the "hashing power" you're selling? You posted in January 2014: "I absolutely LOVE your setup! now to find a datacenter to host some of my miners.." Yet you now offer hosting services yourself? What are you, a Joe Blow reseller who has magically found a way to make ROI on miner hosting? You're probably running a bunch of smaller varying scam setups waiting to see which one begins to pay out the most more quickly.

But you should thank me for this post. Something like it gets posted in the lifetime of every scammer. Unfortunately it causes the dumbest humans to defend you because it does actually appear you haven't scammed anyone yet or haven't been caught. Congrats on that. We wouldn't want to jump to any conclusions about you. So for now, everyone can pile on me and tell me what a terrible human I am. I mean, you're just an entrepreneur, trying to make a buck, right?
-----

[billyjoeallen]

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

When did I guess wrong? That is my first prediction thread ever as far as I know...It's also the first time I've published my opinion online (GeekCipher).

Where have you been, Cipher? Nearly a month missing from your own "analysis" thread.

It's odd we don't see you here now that you were so incredibly far off the mark with your random price guesses. I'm sorry, I meant "math." That's what you claimed to use, right, when Arepo inquired about your prediction?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871.msg5816338#msg5816338

I mean you assured us we'd only drop to $580 in March (maybe 550 at lowest), not $450 as we did. Your price acumen also led us to believe we'd see $694 on 4/16 -- why are we at $480? At nearly $220 off the mark that means you're wrong by roughly 45%! Eekgads, man. I guess it's back to peddling stolen software codes and other fishy Bitcoin enterprises...

Here is the post I originally wrote to you but did not submit because I wanted to give you some rope... Enjoy! (imagine this post starts with you asking, "When did I guess wrong?")

-----
You haven't given it enough time yet. You understand humans don't know the future, right? Being correct once or twice or even 3 times about a future event doesn't mean you know anything more about the future than my 3-year old niece or my pet dog. It may make you observant. It may make you fortunate. It doesn't make you future gnostic. Fortunately for your efforts humans are superstitious.

You made the prediction a day ago. I think most people here are assuming it looked like there would be a drop of up to $20-$100 and then believe it'll rise. You didn't exactly go out on a limb. But of course the first thing you do on the drop, to gain trust, is jump into a thread you do not participate in and declare your genius to the world. Your post history has nearly ZERO price prediction before yesterday.

Look, whatever scam you're up to just hasn't played out yet. You're involved in every scammy/scummy Bitcoin enterprise in existence. It is leading to only one end, and that is you running with other people's BTC without them receiving whatever you promised. The community doesn't need any more of YOU.

Seriously, you're selling gift cards, used electronics (oh, by the way you declared you're starting a "bitcoin museum" and are looking for stuff "super cheap"), video game codes, ASIC hosting (how generous of you), hashing power payouts, prognostication services (preparing to sell this, or just driving people to your awesome WP site?), buying used Casascius coins "for fun", etc. You are a walking scam waiting to explode.

You're in the "gaining trust" phase either for a bigger event or waiting to see which smaller scam offers quickest/biggest returns, have likely scammed others in the past (or perhaps you're a young gamer and burgeoning thief?), and are ready to move into the phase where you either start taking payments for pyramids, fortune telling services or start selling more expensive stuff that never arrives.

Or perhaps how long until folks realize their "hosted" machines are supplying the "hashing power" you're selling? You posted in January 2014: "I absolutely LOVE your setup! now to find a datacenter to host some of my miners.." Yet you now offer hosting services yourself? What are you, a Joe Blow reseller who has magically found a way to make ROI on miner hosting? You're probably running a bunch of smaller varying scam setups waiting to see which one begins to pay out the most more quickly.

But you should thank me for this post. Something like it gets posted in the lifetime of every scammer. Unfortunately it causes the dumbest humans to defend you because it does actually appear you haven't scammed anyone yet or haven't been caught. Congrats on that. We wouldn't want to jump to any conclusions about you. So for now, everyone can pile on me and tell me what a terrible human I am. I mean, you're just an entrepreneur, trying to make a buck, right?
-----

BOOM goes the dynamite!  I don't know that guy from Jack, but I love a good verbal beat down and that qualifies. Keyser is Verbal, kint you get it?

[hlynur]

sorry for OT, just in case somebody's interested:

Documentary "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin" premieres at Tribeca Film Festical
5:30 PM wednesday 4/23 at SVA Theatre 2 Beatrice in New York.
http://tribecafilm.com/filmguide/53286d0ab57ce982ad000163-rise-and-rise-of-bitcoin

After the movie there will be a conversation with director Nicholas Mross, the film’s protagonist Dan Mross, and Charles Shrem.

Will it be available online at some point?

sorry, no info on that so far.
there's a link on tribeca site to http://gowatchit.com/ , hopefully you can watch it there after the premiere.
i'm sure it won't happen but i'd love to see them doing a similar release model like the piratebay-documentary (http://watch.tpbafk.tv/).
Free stream & torrent with donations option and a DVD with more footage & interviews.
it would be a good possibility to show off new distribution models.

[windjc]

I just do not see a difference between March and now. We tested the high range of the trendline then we corrected. In March, there just was not enough fiat to keep the market up and we drifted down. News/snooze - there simply was not enough fiat coming in to the keep the market up. Now with Chinese regulations tightening, the squeeze has made it more difficult for fresh fiat to come in.

IF WE DO NOT RECOVER TO NEW HIGHS IN THE NEXT 10 days, then we are going down folks. We are going back down to retest 340.  It might take 2 months and it might be boring as hell, but the market is still in a bear market as of now and it has shown the inability to sustain prices at these levels. These are just the facts jack as they are today.

If we can get over $545 sometime in April, then thats another story altogether. But right now, I just see a slow drip drip drip down.

Everybody is looking for more upside after this correction. We tested the 50% Fib. Only the 68% is left. We are now on the clock to make an up move. And we need VOLUME to do it.

Shorts are at a very low level right now. Most margin is long.

My money is on the intermediate term bear.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

sorry for OT, just in case somebody's interested:

Documentary "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin" premieres at Tribeca Film Festical
5:30 PM wednesday 4/23 at SVA Theatre 2 Beatrice in New York.
http://tribecafilm.com/filmguide/53286d0ab57ce982ad000163-rise-and-rise-of-bitcoin

After the movie there will be a conversation with director Nicholas Mross, the film’s protagonist Dan Mross, and Charles Shrem.

Will it be available online at some point?

I can't wait for the sequel: "Oops!"

[billyjoeallen]

I just do not see a difference between March and now. We tested the high range of the trendline then we corrected. In March, there just was not enough fiat to keep the market up and we drifted down. News/snooze - there simply was not enough fiat coming in to the keep the market up. Now with Chinese regulations tightening, the squeeze has made it more difficult for fresh fiat to come in.

IF WE DO NOT RECOVER TO NEW HIGHS IN THE NEXT 10 days, then we are going down folks. We are going back down to retest 340.  It might take 2 months and it might be boring as hell, but the market is still in a bear market as of now and it has shown the inability to sustain prices at these levels. These are just the facts jack as they are today.

If we can get over $545 sometime in April, then thats another story altogether. But right now, I just see a slow drip drip drip down.

Everybody is looking for more upside after this correction. We tested the 50% Fib. Only the 68% is left. We are now on the clock to make an up move. And we need VOLUME to do it.

Shorts are at a very low level right now. Most margin is long.

My money is on the intermediate term bear.

Let me start off by saying I agree with you, not just in sentiment but in position. Having said that, it might be helpful to explore reasons why we could be wrong.

1) Weather. Spring weather historically provides a psychological lift to the markets, especially after a long cold winter and a rough bear market.
2) US tax returns. Many people have or will shortly have some disposable income.
3) China. Although the Middle Kingdom is my chief concern right now, much of the bad news so far has been priced in.
4) Although there is not any evidence of significant amounts of fiat entering the exchanges, there is not yet much evidence of fiat leaving the exchanges either. People who sold ~$550 could be looking to rebuy lower.
5) We don't need additional demand if supply runs out for some reason. Several scenarios are possible, although none of them are likely.
6) Prices are still below the cost of production. Well-funded miners should be buying.

[chessnut]

little choice left from a bullish EW point of view. wither up or down   - critical levels though. Im looong 484.

[tvbcof]

Here's a rare call from moi,

I made a call after the early 2013 $250 spike for something testing the $30-is 2011 highs, and I made this call after the initial post-spike low ($60-ish)?  I was dead wrong.  That call was based mainly on my read of sentiment and my judgement of 'capitulation'.  That is, we saw nowhere near the level of hopelessness that I expected, and my expectation was as someone who was around in late 2011 and watching things fairly closely...being one of the few who was still putting skin in the game...and blathering on about doing so publicly...

My current quasi-call is based more one the global supply/demand balance which tends to seem (to me) to be the most reliable indicator, with the caveat that I mostly look at the public data from a single exchange (and switched from Mt. Gox to Stamp.)  I, nor most others here, have visibility into the dark pool type markets which are very likely a huge and growing part of the equation.

My call is that we are not out of the woods yet.  I'm anticipating sub-$200 prices an at least one more down-leg and probably several.  I've been wholly fooled by this indicator in the past, but it still remains my most reliable indicator.  Hopefully I am wrong in this call as I was in 2013.

I do hope that there is a recover and at least one more spike artifact.  In fact my 'hope' is closer than an 'expectation' than I've ever been so far.  The fundamentals which I base this hope on are associated with the growing recognition that Bitcoin could serve as a logical 'reserve' and 'balancing' solution and the growing interest in 'sidechain' work with the likes of Adam Back applying his efforts to the problem.  Also, of course, that it Bitcoin proper has still not been undercut yet in spite of the best efforts of core dev to make it susceptible to a wider variety of failure modes (e.g., x509 and associated centralization problems and such.)

[Davyd05]

@windjc I believe you have been vindicated by the market action, nice call on the volume importance.

However I played my first game of golf this year...arm is killinggggggg but the market is up 20 bucks from the tee off, So I got that going for me.

[windjc]

Here's a rare call from moi,

I made a call after the early 2013 $250 spike for something testing the $30-is 2011 highs, and I made this call after the initial post-spike low ($60-ish)?  I was dead wrong.  That call was based mainly on my read of sentiment and my judgement of 'capitulation'.  That is, we saw nowhere near the level of hopelessness that I expected, and my expectation was as someone who was around in late 2011 and watching things fairly closely...being one of the few who was still putting skin in the game...and blathering on about doing so publicly...

My current quasi-call is based more one the global supply/demand balance which tends to seem (to me) to be the most reliable indicator, with the caveat that I mostly look at the public data from a single exchange (and switched from Mt. Gox to Stamp.)  I, nor most others here, have visibility into the dark pool type markets which are very likely a huge and growing part of the equation.

My call is that we are not out of the woods yet.  I'm anticipating sub-$200 prices an at least one more down-leg and probably several.  I've been wholly fooled by this indicator in the past, but it still remains my most reliable indicator.  Hopefully I am wrong in this call as I was in 2013.

I do hope that there is a recover and at least one more spike artifact.  In fact my 'hope' is closer than an 'expectation' than I've ever been so far.  The fundamentals which I base this hope on are associated with the growing recognition that Bitcoin could serve as a logical 'reserve' and 'balancing' solution and the growing interest in 'sidechain' work with the likes of Adam Back applying his efforts to the problem.  Also, of course, that it Bitcoin proper has still not been undercut yet in spite of the best efforts of core dev to make it susceptible to a wider variety of failure modes (e.g., x509 and associated centralization problems and such.)

I am torn between two competing factors in my mind. Technically, this bear market looks a lot more like the extreme 2011 than anything in 2012 or 2013.

However, fundamentally we are so far beyond 2011 its hard to compare the two. However, having said that, the difference between $2 low and a $200 low is also very different.

So I still slightly lean towards a more 2011 scenario. Although, I think the fundamentals may keep it from being a severe or as long for sure. We saw what 1 country (China) could do to the market.  There are many reasons to think similar things are on the horizon over the next 12 months - albeit the later part of that period.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

little choice left from a bullish EW point of view. wither up or down   - critical levels though. Im looong 484.

Well cant fault you for not being stubborn.