Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[m3g4tr0n]

I'm having an absolute ball watching Huobi and OKCoin. Much action on low volume. It is so cute to see them wait for each other. Maybe they will have a fight for 2900 later. I think the bulls will win that one and they will be back at 3000 or maybe 3200 if things go crazy.

check out the last hour for LTC/USD in BTC-E with the 1m chart. I've never seen anything like it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

From George Papageorgiou and Øystein Aaby, former top employees of Neo & Bee
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23cjd9/the_full_picture_of_former_neo_bee_employees/

In Antonopoulos' response I find it interesting he says, "I will continue to advocate for security controls rather than trust in individuals." This really drives a stake into the heart of Bitcoin philosophy which is something like, "Trust in math and individuals rather than the relative security of banks."
http://antonopoulos.com/2014/04/18/neo-bee-a-statement-by-andreas-m-antonopoulos-a-consultants-perspective/

We have banks because even though they do naughty things from time to time, they are relatively secure whereas individuals are not. Perhaps recently banks have begun to wear out their welcome by overstepping but we shouldn't forget life is about balance. Perhaps Bitcoin won't replace banks but will find a role in keeping banks from being so overbearing.

As long as people are getting 0-1% interest on cash holdings.. that the banks can then loan out.. and in theory fractionally reserve style. Just because there hasn't been a bank run since the depression cause they probably figured out the majority of the controls to stop that form happening following that...and accompany that along with laws that prevent banks runs in America.. we don't really know how trust worthy Banks are.

I mean the taxpayers bailed out the richest fuck ups in the last crisis lol... banks.. safer.. pshhhhhh

Banks now pool risk through deposit insurance. I think this is a terrible idea. Instead of getting bank runs, there is the risk of a run on the entire banking system at once. This came perilously close to happening in 2008. It is closer than you might think to happening in China now.

[PoolMinor]

. Also, have you not noticed Bitcoin's deflation since November?

You mean that the exchange rate has declined.  I am sure that you are aware that this was widely anticipated.  Ross Ulbricht did not secure his funds adequately to the risks he encountered.

I mean the value of Bitcoin went down, just as the dollar does when it inflates. Whether it is anticipated or not has no bearing on your original claim. Same with whether Ross secured his funds properly or not. You know this. You're not stupid. You simply have rhetoric that you don't want to back away from. Some might call that disingenuous, especially since you're smart enough to realize your mistake.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday April 19

Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-04-19, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2888 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 467 USD





Plot legend

Today's data point was rather weak, (S = 0.0053, W = 0.565), but still usable, and almost right on top of the current trendline.  Therefore we used again a straight line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/16, A = 3187.6 and B = -100.0.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.19 CNY/USD. It was 6.18, 6.21, 6.23 at the last three Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-04-18, 03:42 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday Friday 2014-04-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

Today was my broken clock moment of glory, it seems:

Huobi's predicted price: 3001 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2983 CNY
Error: 18 CNY (~3 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 483 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 483 USD
Error: 0 USD
 
NOTE:
  "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts."
    -- Richard Feynman

[billyjoeallen]

. Also, have you not noticed Bitcoin's deflation since November?

You mean that the exchange rate has declined.  I am sure that you are aware that this was widely anticipated.  Ross Ulbricht did not secure his funds adequately to the risks he encountered.

I mean the value of Bitcoin went down, just as the dollar does when it inflates. Whether it is anticipated or not has no bearing on your original claim. Same with whether Ross secured his funds properly or not. You know this. You're not stupid. You simply have rhetoric that you don't want to back away from. Some might call that disingenuous, especially since you're smart enough to realize your mistake.

Keyser's on a rampage. We're a long way off from mass consumer adoption. There needs to be some key markets that we need to capture first. It might even be better to make it more exclusive. You know, something like "Bitcoin, for people smarter than you".

[JorgeStolfi]

Friday night posts to this thread are something special. 

Just remember your Friendly Government's advice, "don't drink and trade". 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[marcus_of_augustus]

From George Papageorgiou and Øystein Aaby, former top employees of Neo & Bee
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23cjd9/the_full_picture_of_former_neo_bee_employees/

We have banks because even though they do naughty things from time to time, they are relatively secure whereas individuals are not. Perhaps recently banks have begun to wear out their welcome by overstepping but we shouldn't forget life is about balance. Perhaps Bitcoin won't replace banks but will find a role in keeping banks from being so overbearing.

the banks just ass-raped society for trillions and the best you can up with is "naughty banks" ... "recently worn out their welcome" ... "overbearing" ... ??!!

yeah like a thief in your house was naughty and wore out his welcome and was overbearing ... sheeeesh, get some perspective, you got fucked over by the banks, all of you and it is on-going, grow a pair and accept the reality of your abusive sub-ordination.

[JorgeStolfi]

I would timidly guess that there will not be much change in the price today (Saturday).

Significant changes could only be caused by news about the money input/output channels to the Chinese exchanges, positive or negative; or from the absence of such news when such news could have appeared, since traders could see that absence as a positive sign.   

However, between today and Sunday no news are expected, and probably there will be none.  So there should be no reason for sudden changes in the traders' mood.

The transition from Sunday to Monday is more uncertain.  It is possible that some traders will decide to change their BTC:CNY positions on Sunday night or Monday morning in antecipation of whatever news they think many come out on Monday.

[windjc]

We're already in a lopsided situation where although more and more merchants are accepting BTC yet we don't seem to have many consumers on board. Bitcoin has pretty obvious negatives for consumers, who just want "safe and easy." I imagine "safe and easy" is in the pipeline, but of course the problem is it is my imagination only.

I've always thought that was bitcoin's biggest weakness in terms of adoption for actual use as opposed to speculation: how does it benefit the consumer? It's advertised as a great way to protect merchants, but if the consumer won't use it because they don't get any additional benefit for going through the trouble, it doesn't matter how many merchants accept it.

Well, we keep waiting for the "killer app" in the developed world. Something that makes it simply, easy, fast, safe and effective. Circle.com, am I talking to you??

Meanwhile Bitcoin has more advantages in the non-developed world. But getting it there in a way that is meaningful is a entirely different task.

There is a gap that still needs to be filled and no one has filled it yet.

[KeyserSoze]

We have banks because even though they do naughty things from time to time, they are relatively secure whereas individuals are not. Perhaps recently banks have begun to wear out their welcome by overstepping but we shouldn't forget life is about balance. Perhaps Bitcoin won't replace banks but will find a role in keeping banks from being so overbearing.

the banks just ass-raped society for trillions and the best you can up with is "naughty banks" ... "recently worn out their welcome" ... "overbearing" ... ??!!

yeah like a thief in your house was naughty and wore out his welcome and was overbearing ... sheeeesh, get some perspective, you got fucked over by the banks, all of you and it is on-going, grow a pair and accept the reality of your abusive sub-ordination.

Some might say I am the one with perspective. Not in this nuthouse forum however.

[endoflove]

Hmmm... will bitcoin price rise to 2000k$ this year?

[derpinheimer]

Hmmm... will bitcoin price rise to 2000k$ this year?

I bet you 1btc it won't.

[ShroomsKit]

Hmmm... will bitcoin price rise to 2000k$ this year?

Welcome to my ignore list.

[chessnut]

Hmmm... will bitcoin price rise to 2000k$ this year?

probably!

ccmf!

[JayJuanGee]

. Also, have you not noticed Bitcoin's deflation since November?

You mean that the exchange rate has declined.  I am sure that you are aware that this was widely anticipated.  Ross Ulbricht did not secure his funds adequately to the risks he encountered.

I mean the value of Bitcoin went down, just as the dollar does when it inflates. Whether it is anticipated or not has no bearing on your original claim. Same with whether Ross secured his funds properly or not. You know this. You're not stupid. You simply have rhetoric that you don't want to back away from. Some might call that disingenuous, especially since you're smart enough to realize your mistake.

Keyser's on a rampage. We're a long way off from mass consumer adoption. There needs to be some key markets that we need to capture first. It might even be better to make it more exclusive. You know, something like "Bitcoin, for people smarter than you".

"Keyser's on a rampage"  is that bullish?

[JorgeStolfi]

The dangers of Google Translate:

Earlier, two other major Bitcoin exchange Bitstamp and BTC-e have enjoyed being hacked and suspended withdrawals .

(From a humdrum blah blah article about bitcoin, in Chinese on a Thai site.)

[JayJuanGee]

I would timidly guess that there will not be much change in the price today (Saturday).

Significant changes could only be caused by news about the money input/output channels to the Chinese exchanges, positive or negative; or from the absence of such news when such news could have appeared, since traders could see that absence as a positive sign.   

However, between today and Sunday no news are expected, and probably there will be none.  So there should be no reason for sudden changes in the traders' mood.

The transition from Sunday to Monday is more uncertain.  It is possible that some traders will decide to change their BTC:CNY positions on Sunday night or Monday morning in antecipation of whatever news they think many come out on Monday.

I though that Saturdays were traditional dump days.  ... b/c of the potential of little fiat on the exchanges in order to counter-act those kinds of dumps.. and the fact that there is a quasi-holiday, there may be even a longer weekend with potentially less fiat to counteract any kind of dumping action... Is this NOT a bit of a pattern for Saturdays.. or maybe we are still trying to figure out the post gox and post china pattern... to some extent?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation