Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[QuestionAuthority]

Explanation

You wore me out last night ChartBuddy. I was seeing red and green stars this morning. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

All seems to be quiet on the China front.

Huobi has only one option for deposit on their homepage, that "recharge card".  Withdrawal by bank still OK (24h)  Could not find that info for OKCoin.

The announcement on Huobi's page has not changed since the 17th, about reactivation of the recharge card pathway.  That on OKCoin is from the 19th, about an Android app.  There are several post on their internal forum from today with various client questions.

[windjc]

Huobi is eating walls. 130BTC sell wall gone in a flash.

Do we dare post pictures of trains yet?  They haven't seemed to work as of late.

I did have a dream we were at $1350 last night.  I was yelling at my husband for not selling any at $1350.  But then he said, "The price is $5500."  I said, "that is half of what it was!"  I guess I can't do math while sleeping.  But of course, even in my dreams it is better to hold.  

 
yup just when everyone thought they had learned their lesson about posting train pics, here comes the train.
you go first.  
may your dreams come true.

Why is it so hard to see that the market doesn't know whether is bear or bull?  We are inching up today on LESS volume than the move up yesterday.

At this rate we will fail to make a higher high this week, because buy volume will dry up at this rate. If we do not make a higher high, then we will confirm that we are still in a bear market.

At this point, basically people are just seeing what they WANT to see, because its completely unclear. But the trend for 5 months has been down, so the trend is my friend until confirmation of its death.

[JorgeStolfi]

The pattern I see repeated dozen of times since Sunday morning (China time) on Huobi: a sudden jump upwards, by a variable amount, then a steady decline at about 10--12 CNY/hour.

[chessnut]

Why is it so hard to see that the market doesn't know whether is bear or bull?  We are inching up today on LESS volume than the move up yesterday.

At this rate we will fail to make a higher high this week, because buy volume will dry up at this rate. If we do not make a higher high, then we will confirm that we are still in a bear market.

At this point, basically people are just seeing what they WANT to see, because its completely unclear. But the trend for 5 months has been down, so the trend is my friend until confirmation of its death.

you cannot base a trend on volume. bidders are bidding up but nobody wants to sell. bears need to watch out for some serious volatility between 500-600. an old trend is not your friend. this one is behaving bullish, and fundamentals are bullish. If it continues to play out as I am expecting, we will be at 580 soon.

[Teppino]

i feel that with 3d macd crossing upward will also come some positive news from China

[windjc]

Why is it so hard to see that the market doesn't know whether is bear or bull?  We are inching up today on LESS volume than the move up yesterday.

At this rate we will fail to make a higher high this week, because buy volume will dry up at this rate. If we do not make a higher high, then we will confirm that we are still in a bear market.

At this point, basically people are just seeing what they WANT to see, because its completely unclear. But the trend for 5 months has been down, so the trend is my friend until confirmation of its death.

you cannot base a trend on volume. bidders are bidding up but nobody wants to sell. bears need to watch out for some serious volatility between 500-600. an old trend is not your friend. this one is behaving bullish, and fundamentals are bullish. If it continues to play out as I am expecting, we will be at 580 soon.

Wow. To discount volume do so at your own peril. I didn't listen to my own advice at $470 and got my fingers clipped. This is Monday, most bullish day of the week and there is less volume than this weekend. Where are all these buyers??? We can't just go to 580+ without buyers.

You're just ASSUMING no one wants to sell. All I see is nobody wanting to miss out on the next train and pretty much everyone staring at each other. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to inflate daily with new coins hitting the exchanges.

Maybe the market will go up and make a new high. I know thats a possibility and I'm fine with it. However, this idea that is a certainty is just you being a cheerleader. It is the opposite of TA.

[chessnut]

Why is it so hard to see that the market doesn't know whether is bear or bull?  We are inching up today on LESS volume than the move up yesterday.

At this rate we will fail to make a higher high this week, because buy volume will dry up at this rate. If we do not make a higher high, then we will confirm that we are still in a bear market.

At this point, basically people are just seeing what they WANT to see, because its completely unclear. But the trend for 5 months has been down, so the trend is my friend until confirmation of its death.

you cannot base a trend on volume. bidders are bidding up but nobody wants to sell. bears need to watch out for some serious volatility between 500-600. an old trend is not your friend. this one is behaving bullish, and fundamentals are bullish. If it continues to play out as I am expecting, we will be at 580 soon.

Wow. To discount volume do so at your own peril. I didn't listen to my own advice at $470 and got my fingers clipped. This is Monday, most bullish day of the week and there is less volume than this weekend. Where are all these buyers??? We can't just go to 580+ without buyers.

You're just ASSUMING no one wants to sell. All I see is nobody wanting to miss out on the next train and pretty much everyone staring at each other. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to inflate daily with new coins hitting the exchanges.

Maybe the market will go up and make a new high. I know thats a possibility and I'm fine with it. However, this idea that is a certainty is just you being a cheerleader. It is the opposite of TA.

cool it man,
where are the sellers? Im not assuming nobody wants to sell, it's a fact. the price is high, and nobody is selling. nobody wants to sell. did I say it was a certainty? no. I am just thrilled that I haven't missed a cent from this bull run, and it is playing out as I expect.
the theme of the down trend has been 'china ban', but the 15th, and the 18th, and now today has come about, and everything is fine. classic. what's the worst that can happen? china is NOT going to ban bitcoin!

[windjc]

Why is it so hard to see that the market doesn't know whether is bear or bull?  We are inching up today on LESS volume than the move up yesterday.

At this rate we will fail to make a higher high this week, because buy volume will dry up at this rate. If we do not make a higher high, then we will confirm that we are still in a bear market.

At this point, basically people are just seeing what they WANT to see, because its completely unclear. But the trend for 5 months has been down, so the trend is my friend until confirmation of its death.

you cannot base a trend on volume. bidders are bidding up but nobody wants to sell. bears need to watch out for some serious volatility between 500-600. an old trend is not your friend. this one is behaving bullish, and fundamentals are bullish. If it continues to play out as I am expecting, we will be at 580 soon.

Wow. To discount volume do so at your own peril. I didn't listen to my own advice at $470 and got my fingers clipped. This is Monday, most bullish day of the week and there is less volume than this weekend. Where are all these buyers??? We can't just go to 580+ without buyers.

You're just ASSUMING no one wants to sell. All I see is nobody wanting to miss out on the next train and pretty much everyone staring at each other. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to inflate daily with new coins hitting the exchanges.

Maybe the market will go up and make a new high. I know thats a possibility and I'm fine with it. However, this idea that is a certainty is just you being a cheerleader. It is the opposite of TA.

cool it man,
where are the sellers? Im not assuming nobody wants to sell, it's a fact. the price is high, and nobody is selling. nobody wants to sell. did I say it was a certainty? no. I am just thrilled that I haven't missed a cent from this bull run, and it is playing out as I expect.
the theme of the down trend has been 'china ban', but the 15th, and the 18th, and now today has come about, and everything is fine. classic. what's the worst that can happen? china is NOT going to ban bitcoin!

Really? China isn't going to ban exchanges? You know this? You know for a fact that no Chinese exchanges are going to close?

Ok. Well since you have a crystal ball to predict the future, you certainly have an advantage over me.

However, in my crystal-ball-less world, I think that China could certainly make capital flow into exchanges either more difficult or impossible and I think exchanges could close.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LMGTFY]

This is Monday, most bullish day of the week and there is less volume than this weekend. Where are all these buyers??? We can't just go to 580+ without buyers.

It's Easter Monday for many people - large chunks of Europe, and China too, I believe. The Huobi daily chart shows a marked decrease in volume from Friday through to now, I've been assuming that that's Chinese Christians celebrating rather than trading.

[chessnut]

Really? China isn't going to ban exchanges? You know this? You know for a fact that no Chinese exchanges are going to close?

Ok. Well since you have a crystal ball to predict the future, you certainly have an advantage over me.

However, in my crystal-ball-less world, I think that China could certainly make capital flow into exchanges either more difficult or impossible and I think exchanges could close.

yeah, it's a fact, as good as they come these days. the chinese have declared they they are not capable of banning bitcoin, they do not have the authority, and they do not wish to. they have publicly declared this!

[bamsbamx]

It's Easter Monday for many people - large chunks of Europe, and China too, I believe. The Huobi daily chart shows a marked decrease in volume from Friday through to now, I've been assuming that that's Chinese Christians celebrating rather than trading.

Yes, the train is coming tomorrow for us to take a ride in it :D

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

Looks like line may have drawn in the sand. If Houbi falls below 3080 before going to 3500, it may never get to 3500.  And the bear market may still rule.

It seems like its either 3080 and below or 3500 and above at this point.

[niothor]

Looks like line may have drawn in the sand. If Houbi falls below 3080 before going to 3500, it may never get to 3500.  And the bear market may still rule.

It seems like its either 3080 and below or 3500 and above at this point.

Never?  You actually said never?
I understand this is the "speculation" thread but really , let's not get too much Fonzie or Igorr here

Never is a word banned from the bitcoin dictionary.

[windjc]

Looks like line may have drawn in the sand. If Houbi falls below 3080 before going to 3500, it may never get to 3500.  And the bear market may still rule.

It seems like its either 3080 and below or 3500 and above at this point.

Never?  You actually said never?
I understand this is the "speculation" thread but really , let's not get too much Fonzie or Igorr here

Never is a word banned from the bitcoin dictionary.

Yeah I don't believe that. However, if we are still in a bear market there is the possibility of going below 340 and even to or below $270. And if it gets lower than that it could be a long protracted recovery.

So there is a chance it never gets back to 3500.

I do think that the markets confidence has been pretty resilent though. I mean we've had over 5 months of red candles and there still seems to be a real unwillingness for coin holders to sell.

There's just no liquidity anymore. Either miners have just coordinated off exchange purchasers for all their coins, and with the consolidation of miners this would be easier to coordinate now.

But fresh fiat into exchanges is not happening. And even with a shortage of coins, I don't foresee any large bubbles in the near future.

I put it at 50/50 that we either go slowly down and retest lows are we go very slowly up, 2 steps up 1 1/2 steps back for a long time.

We could also be entering a period where we go into a small bull run and back into a small bear market with new trend lines and such. But with low liquidity any bad news could sending us south many times along the way north. If north is where the market decides to go.

[chessnut]

uh oh, bouncing off the trend line!

[BlackFlag]

http://cointelegraph.com/post/bitcoin_becomes_private_money_in_germany#.U1TqZ_l_vpJ