Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

Feels like the end of year fireworks are over and the price is starting to drift lower. I suspect this will likely remain until we get news on the ETF in a couple weeks. I’m still curious if we’ll see a sell the news situation or not. Part of me thinks we have to see some profit taking, but another part of me thinks the market is ready to rip on any news.

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[AlcoHoDL]

NEWS:Billionaire Tim Draper says Bitcoin will hit $250,000 in 2024.
My body is ready

I'm sure that one day Tim Draper will be right, but as things stand so far he has not justified the status of a "prophet", considering that in 2014 he uttered the famous saying "1 BTC will be worth at least $10,000 in the next three years".

...and it did...exactly 3 years later, in 2017, lol

his other prediction of 250K in 2022 did not pan out, of course, and he admits to that.
In my opinion, anyone who predicts BOTH the timing and the price are not going to be successful, typically.

Check out the vid (@fillippone was most likely talking about T. Draper info from this one):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfOeVUbbx9Y

I watched it with interest because the contrast between bitcoin "guy" Draper and a s-tcoin "promoter" R. Pal (who invest most of his money in ONE coin  ) could not be more clear. Draper also explains very well how VC funding works. The gal is easy on the eye too (for this older fella), haha.

Nice video. It's definitely coming. There will always be noise (read: COVID, Ukraine, FTX, etc.) that causes deviations from the trend, but the trend is there, and always has been. I think we will see 6 digits by 2025. Exact figures like $250,000 are fun and generate clicks, but don't make much practical sense. Bitcoin-friendly banks and ETFs are a necessary "evil" in the path of Bitcoin adoption. It is naive to expect a total collapse of the traditional system, and not everyone can be their own bank. It will not collapse, it will adapt, and it is adapting.

Looking forward to an exciting new year!

[Volgastallion]

Well for me we are gonna see a start of a drip right now, but for a good thing, the Mxgox is starting to make payments to the creditors, so good for them and also for us because we start to expell one X from the equation (the weight of mxgox fund) .  The fact they are paying in FIAT implies we are gonna see some sells to make that happen, so be ready for that.

INFO

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Had been going through my old posts for the original but couldn't find it, so admittedly I stopped searching a bit prematurely and asked whether you had better storage management.. Did not expect you to create a brand new one especially during these days. Thank you Homer, best Christmas gift. Exactly as my avatar but more pixels .

At the time I requested the laser eyes because of expecting $100k soon. But then SBF and his cronies ruined the party, back to flippin' burgers it was. But the laser eyes are still focussed today on that magic number (even though it should probably be $125k today at a minimum due to inflation). Involuntary thinking about it for some years I decided I am keeping the laser eyes no matter the price. Bitcoin, with a capital B, is worth focussing on beyond the financial freedom it provides. So no need for a third edition, wearing it until it has holes in it!

I never bought into the lazer eyes meaning focused on $100k, because I hardly could give too many shits about those kinds of short-term and/or seemingly arbitrary price thresholds... .. and so my interpretation of the lazer eyes has been just a means of keeping our eyes on the prize... and many of us likely know what the prize happens to be... even if we might not completely agree upon how much diversification that we might need, if any.

Bought my first bitcoins around Christmas 10 years ago. I have many of you guys to thank for helping me hodl through all this time - sorry for not contributing.

Anyway - Merry Christmas and thanks once again!

/ Longtime lurker

Merry Christmas.
all my friends.

10 years ago I didn't know what is bitcoin, you are maybe a billionaire.

Yes..

When in doubt, assume that Longtime lurker, aka zaap is a billionaire.. perhaps a satoshis billionaire..   It may or may not be true, but probably does not hurt to ask.. in order to test the OpSec of longtime lurker..

[edited out]

Unfortunately not. Just because someone knew about bitcoin 10 years ago does not guarantee that someone was able to acquire enough bitcoins and hold them through all ups and downs. It does require quite huge balls of steel to not sell or be influenced by people around you.

I have more than most people around me, but that is quite easy.
We are still early.

Gosh.  There are a lot of possibilities, there, and yeah in 10 years a lot can happen, including selling too many too soon, or getting distracted by shitcoiner and/or bitcoin naysaying talking points.

There's also some questions of security and/or good practices if you had engaged in any kinds of attempts to experiment and use bitcoin, and I will admit that it took me a bit of time to secure my own bitcoin, even though I had thought that I had some decent security for reasons that I am even a bit too embarrassed to admit, and even now, I know that there are some vulnerabilities in some of my current practices, and there is both reluctance to talk about such things, but also some reluctance to fix some of the vulnerabilities.

There were some transactions that I did recently too, and I was kind of wondering if I did them in a very secure and/or private kind of a way, and I am also having some dilemmas regarding what to tell people who are bitcoin newbies in regards to how to manage some of their coins, and how much obligations do we have to tell people things that we feel that we know, but then they also have obligations to do some of their own research too.

Thanks guys!

OOM, I thought about this too. Symptoms came very quickly, and soon after a couple of dinners with friends, so I also think it probably isn't COVID. I had an old COVID test kit at home, which had already expired (about 1 year past expiration). I did it nonetheless, and it came out negative.

Quite harsh indeed, high fever, shivers, cycling on/off between painkillers. Came in the most unfortunate of times...  

Sounds like classic flu, yep. Shit can be tedious, but you can speed recovery up with NAC (2x500mg/d) and Ascorbic Acid (Vitamin C, works as NAC metabolism catalyzer).
I gave my last capsules of NAC to a friend of my father in law (60+ yo) after a two week flu episode, which had a holiday booked nine days later. He fully recovered before packing his suitcase. I only had NAC/AA once, after Covid (Omicron B1) and it helped much with shortbreathedness. Athletes are using it to increase O2 absorption of the lungs before training for events. One can take it for a month safely, but i never read of problems from those who took it longer.

EDIT: Sorry, forgot why i came online today  
Merry Christmas!
(delayed, because of christmas eve offline challenge in my family)

Thanks for the comments, I appreciate it. Never heard of NAC, had to Google it, interesting, will keep that in mind. Was already taking vitamin C (1000 mg) daily as a precaution.

I had kind of glossed over the NAC part too, but then it looks like it could be a good supplement to keep in mind.. .and with supplements, sometimes it can be difficult to know if they are doing anything (such as helping with anything), but I did like the idea of mucus clearing in one of the descriptions that I read.

>>>>"NAC can help prevent side effects caused by drug reactions and toxic chemicals, and helps break down mucus in the body. It seems to have benefits in treating some respiratory conditions, such as bronchitis and COPD."<<<<<

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Well for me we are gonna see a start of a drip right now, but for a good thing, the Mxgox is starting to make payments to the creditors, so good for them and also for us because we start to expell one X from the equation (the weight of mxgox fund) .  The fact they are paying in FIAT implies we are gonna see some sells to make that happen, so be ready for that.

INFO

It remains to be seen what the mtgox folks are going to do with their coins.  Right now I think I'll probably cash mine out and buy a Tesla Cybertruck with the funds.  I imagine many others will probably feel the same way.  I always considered those coins lost, so having them back will probably result in me cashing out immediately in order to have additional cash.  It wouldn't surprise me if a large majority of those coins are sold for similar reasons.  Whether you stayed in Bitcoin and went on to stack, or you got out of Bitcoin, I'd imagine you'll be happy to get back dollars and not coins.  Everyone's circumstance is of course different, but that's my thinking on it.

[Richy_T]

Right now I think I'll probably cash mine out and buy a Tesla Cybertruck with the funds.

Out of the frying pan, into the fire.

[OutOfMemory]

Right now I think I'll probably cash mine out and buy a Tesla Cybertruck with the funds.

Out of the frying pan, into the fire.

I think if you cash out Bitcoin at this time of the current market cycle, you deserve that Cybertruck as well  

EDIT: Reported payments are small amounts (in JPY) received via PayPal, and in some cases double:

https://twitter.com/xelavi/status/1739649690025517197

Smells fishy, while according to the cold wallet monitoring geeks, not a single BTC has been moved... 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

NAC is actually a bit of a wonder substance really.  Emergency departments keep it on hand to counteract liver poisoning (like from Tylenol).  And it can help if you drink a little too much too to protect the liver.  Anyway... many supplements are snake oil.  Not this one.  It also likely has some benefit for people exposed (one way or the other) to the spike protein of C-19.

[Krubster]

Well for me we are gonna see a start of a drip right now, but for a good thing, the Mxgox is starting to make payments to the creditors, so good for them and also for us because we start to expell one X from the equation (the weight of mxgox fund) .  The fact they are paying in FIAT implies we are gonna see some sells to make that happen, so be ready for that.

INFO

The repayment consist of both a fiat and a btc claim. For the fiat claim, you could either chose a bank account, or your PayPal account. Only those who chose PayPal have gotten part of their fiat claim paid today.

No one has received their btc claim yet, so any price movement has nothing to do with today's fiat repayment.

It remains to be seen what the mtgox folks are going to do with their coins.  Right now I think I'll probably cash mine out and buy a Tesla Cybertruck with the funds.  I imagine many others will probably feel the same way.  I always considered those coins lost, so having them back will probably result in me cashing out immediately in order to have additional cash.  It wouldn't surprise me if a large majority of those coins are sold for similar reasons.  Whether you stayed in Bitcoin and went on to stack, or you got out of Bitcoin, I'd imagine you'll be happy to get back dollars and not coins.  Everyone's circumstance is of course different, but that's my thinking on it.

I also considered those coins lost for a very long time, but I sure won't sell any once I finally receive them.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Well for me we are gonna see a start of a drip right now, but for a good thing, the Mxgox is starting to make payments to the creditors, so good for them and also for us because we start to expell one X from the equation (the weight of mxgox fund) .  The fact they are paying in FIAT implies we are gonna see some sells to make that happen, so be ready for that.

INFO

It remains to be seen what the mtgox folks are going to do with their coins.  Right now I think I'll probably cash mine out and buy a Tesla Cybertruck with the funds.  I imagine many others will probably feel the same way.  I always considered those coins lost, so having them back will probably result in me cashing out immediately in order to have additional cash.  It wouldn't surprise me if a large majority of those coins are sold for similar reasons.  Whether you stayed in Bitcoin and went on to stack, or you got out of Bitcoin, I'd imagine you'll be happy to get back dollars and not coins.  Everyone's circumstance is of course different, but that's my thinking on it.

Yes.. you seem to continue to presume (merely based on your desire for a cybertruck and a feeling that you deserve some kind of a marshmellow) that other MTGOX claimants are going to have some kind of similar mindset to sell their coins because that is what you have been hearing and feeling since 2015/2016, but that remains a pretty BIG assumption, even though a decent quantity of MTGOX coins are not held by individuals.

As of November there appear to be 141,846 BTC that are still outstanding.  https://protos.com/who-owns-mtgox-claims-to-billions-of-dollars-in-bitcoin/

How many MTGOX coins are held by individuals? 25% of the total?  less than 40k BTC?  The other 100k-ish coins are held by various holding companies?  Maybe?  Maybe those holding companies will sell some or all of their coins.. Maybe?  maybe not?

Edited to flesh out a few of the ideas a wee bit MOAR better

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Dump3er]

-

Yes.. you are assuming that people are going to sell their MTGOX coins because that is what you have been hearing since 2015/2016, but that remains a pretty BIG assumption, even though a decent quantity of MTGOX coins are not held by individuals.

As of November there appear to be 141,846 BTC that are still outstanding.  https://protos.com/who-owns-mtgox-claims-to-billions-of-dollars-in-bitcoin/

How many MTGOX coins are held by individuals? 25% of the total?  less than 40k BTC?  The other 100k-ish coins are held by various holding companies?  Maybe?  Maybe those holding companies will sell some or all of their coins.. Maybe?  maybe not?

When the Mt. Gox thing happened, BTC was many more times speculative than it is now to many of the big holders. Like, in 2015 or let's even go with 2017 and a BTC price of say $16k, perhaps there would have been some value in trying to game the market because of released Mt. Gox coins that could push the price down if many of those who luckily got their BTC stolen and then returned had decided to dump.

But since then so much happened in the meantime in terms of trading volume, infrastructure, education and spread awareness, governments positioning themselves, institutional money flowing in and many, many others aspects.

First of all, I doubt that the majority of people will decide to dump it all. Perhaps they dump a fraction, which already changes the potential number to be dumped significantly.

Secondly, it is not worth it to game the market because the price could go from $45k to $41k or $39k. This would have been different if price and volume would allow for a huge price drop of something like >50%. That is not going to happen.

Thirdly, as always in life when time passes, there is also a consolidation of emotions and the mental state goes back to normal. When these people got hacked and then BTC went to the moon and they would have gotten their BTC back out of a sudden, I am sure a lot of them would have dumped instantly. It would have made sense rationally, mathematically, and emotionally.

The rational and emotional reasons go hand in hand to some degree as there is something called rationalization in psychology, which can in part be derived from an emotional state of mind. But the mathematical reasons have drastically diminished in significance depending on the individual goals of those BTC holders. They have now a history to look back on, derive their own set if risk factors and opportunity cost and give their own estimate as to the upside potential of BTC.

I imagine that some people will open up some short positions, but they always do. However, some of those gamblers opening short positions have literally been squeezed like lemons in the past and people are aware there are some evil whales in the market, who may not like short positions in a moment unknown to the gambler and it is game over.

If anything, I believe some big players will make sure they are liquid enough to absorb some of those coins. Just think about Microstrategy and how they look at such an event.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Sounds like classic flu, yep. Shit can be tedious, but you can speed recovery up with NAC (2x500mg/d) and Ascorbic Acid (Vitamin C, works as NAC metabolism catalyzer).
I gave my last capsules of NAC to a friend of my father in law (60+ yo) after a two week flu episode, which had a holiday booked nine days later. He fully recovered before packing his suitcase. I only had NAC/AA once, after Covid (Omicron B1) and it helped much with shortbreathedness. Athletes are using it to increase O2 absorption of the lungs before training for events. One can take it for a month safely, but i never read of problems from those who took it longer.

[...]

Thanks for the comments, I appreciate it. Never heard of NAC, had to Google it, interesting, will keep that in mind. Was already taking vitamin C (1000 mg) daily as a precaution.

I had kind of glossed over the NAC part too, but then it looks like it could be a good supplement to keep in mind.. .and with supplements, sometimes it can be difficult to know if they are doing anything (such as helping with anything), but I did like the idea of mucus clearing in one of the descriptions that I read.

>>>>"NAC can help prevent side effects caused by drug reactions and toxic chemicals, and helps break down mucus in the body. It seems to have benefits in treating some respiratory conditions, such as bronchitis and COPD."<<<<<

NAC is actually a bit of a wonder substance really.  Emergency departments keep it on hand to counteract liver poisoning (like from Tylenol).  And it can help if you drink a little too much too to protect the liver.  Anyway... many supplements are snake oil.  Not this one.  It also likely has some benefit for people exposed (one way or the other) to the spike protein of C-19.

OT, I know, sorry for the all-medical post spree...

Thanks for the comments about NAC. Never heard of it prior to OOM mentioning it. Will have to get some. I'm not generally a fan of supplements, but one thing I can say from personal experience is about magnesium. A few months ago I started taking it daily, and I now sleep much better than before. I have vivid, movie-like dreams almost every night, it's pretty amazing. Like, I'm going to bed with an anticipation of the dream I'm going to have. The only supplements I take are magnesium (400 mg/day), zinc (22 mg/day), and vitamin C (1000 mg/day). The cocktail was suggested by a trusted doctor friend. I don't know if it's just the magnesium or the combined effect re. the dreams...

BTW, I was tested today and it turns out I have COVID-19... Already lost sense of smell and partial sense of taste (basically food tastes weird). Fever has completely subsided. Nose still runny (NAC could help here?). Positive line on test was deep red (high viral load). On top of all that, Bitcoin is ant-dipping again. What a great gift for Christmas & the New Year! Counting on the upcoming ETF thing...

Take good care guys. Prep your bodies and your spirits for the upcoming stratospheric pump.