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I was basically trying to say that the ones who have more than 1 Bitcoin can make some good profits if they sell out some of their holdings. Let's say if someone has accumulated around 2 Bitcoin or 4 Bitcoin during the dip of $16k and when continued buying Bitcoin when its price was around $25k, and they might have accumulated some Bitcoin during each dip by following a DCA strategy or dip buying strategy whatever we name it. Then such people can actually make some good profits if they sell some of their holdings at $80k let's say if someone who has 2 Bitcoin and he has bought those Bitcoin with average price of $20k a Bitcoin then that person can sell 1 Bitcoin at $80k. He bought 2 Bitcoin for $40k and now he's selling only 1 Bitcoin for $80k which means he already got his own invested money back and made 100% profit from his initial investment.
Thanks for elaborating, and so now I can better see how it seems that we are thinking differently about these kinds of matters. You seem to be thinking about selling some of your BTC in order to lock in dollar profits; however, I am largely thinking about ONLY selling BTC to offset some of the overexposure to BTC and as a kind of insurance because of having had over-invested into BTC and in that sense some good can come from shaving off some of that exposure, and maybe in the end, it may well end up working out similarly, even though I have some psychological difficulties considering that it would be good to shave off 50% of my BTC holdings at $80k merely because I were to have 4x profits, but sure I might be willing to compromise and shave off 25% of my holdings, yet I would still be nervous about shaving off that much, and even be nervous about when to buy back, and then maybe regretting matters if BTC prices do not end up correcting and I ended up selling 25% of my BTC stash when maybe I should have had ONLY sold 10% or 15% of my stash, at most.
Surely, you are not wrong, but I think that the desire to lock in that much BTC profits in dollars at such ambiguous prices causes me to speculate that you either do not understand BTC very well (especially its upside potential) or you might be considering bitcoin as a kind of mature asset class (which also gets back to the idea that you might not sufficiently understand the asset that you are holding and the risks that come from overly trading it - even if there is nothing wrong with shaving off some over exposure.. which I consider to be a distinction with a difference).
Now, let's say the same guy holds his 1 Bitcoin which is almost a free investment for him now because he already recovered his initial investment and even got 100% profit. He doesn't need to sell that Bitcoin now because he can now wait for huge intensity of the bull run where price of Bitcoin might cross $100k a coin or way more than that or he may hold that Bitcoin until Bitcoin reaches $1M.
Fair enough to want to get out your intial investment and to just play with house money, but I doubt that there is any need to rush in order to get out the initial investment, especially with something like bitcoin, including that there is some value in potentially putting into practice of allowing your winners to continue to ride - even if you had not gotten out your intial investment principle.. and so in your example you are wanting the guy to get out his initial $40k investment, but by the time bitcoin reaches $80k, the investment would be worth $160k, so would there be some kind of worry that the BTC prices are going to be dropping so much that he is not able to get back his original investment amount..
...and why not just shave off $5k or $10k when BTC gets into the $80k price territories, or some other reasonable and smaller amount just to make sure his current cashflows are in order rather than getting all worked up about some kind of need to get back his initial investment when his initial investment is still working for him and continuing to work for him, so long as he keeps the original amount invested rather than reducing his assets merely to have dollars for the mere sake of having dollars when he may or may not even have any kind of compelling reason to be needing to get the dollars out. .unless it is merely just premature consumption that is being felt.. and why isn't there any value in terms of continuing to defer gratification?
In other words, why cannot that guy just stay invested in BTC at those $80k-ish prices when if your are actually even conceding to a scenario in which his initial amount of $40k invested into BTC had been locked up less than 2 years (under the facts that you gave because we are presuming the purchase to have had been after the NOvembver 2022 dip down to $15,479.. so then the $40k purchase of 2 BTC may well have been on the rebound.... or maybe we do not even really need to iron out exactly why his costs are around $20k per BTC because there were quite a few opportunities between about mid 2022 and even into early 2023 in which the guy could have ended up averaging out around $20k - and even if it is not the best average price, it ends up being a pretty decently low and potentially reasonable price to have had been able to get during that time..
Is there some kind of urgent concern that the BTC price is going to drop once it reaches $80k-ish? And why would it? especially once it touches upon $80k? unless there are some facts and/or theories that causes you to be timid (or somewhat bearish or lacking in bullishness) about bitcoin as an ongoingly good long term investment, including once it reaches $80k-- whether it takes another month or so to reach such prices, or maybe it takes all the way until the end of 2024 or even into the first or second quarter of 2025 before it ends up reaching such $80k-ish prices... either way, what is the rush to get back your initial investment or even to get back more than your initial investment since you had mentioned selling a whole BTC rather than half of a BTC or some other smaller amount?
The same guy now has around $80k in his account which he can reinvest in Bitcoin
Now you seem to be presuming that BTC price is going to drop after it reaches $80k, which it may or may not depending on what might cause it to go up to $80k.. that is a pretty BIG presumption in and of itself.
or withdraw some of it to fulfill his other needs.
Are you referring to needs or wants? What is the urgency all of a sudden? Is this guy overinvesting and/or gambling or is he a long term investor in BTC?
Let's say the guy decides to withdraw $10k out of those $80k and now he has $70k which he can reinvest in Bitcoin again.
Still presuming that the BTC price is going to fall from $80k, which maybe it will and maybe it won't.. seems like gambling to me to be withdrawing that much and especially at such a weird point.. . .and by the way, I already mentioned, that I did not mind the idea of shaving off $10k or maybe even a bit more and not expecting to buy back with it. In fact, I don't even have any psychological barriers to shaving off something like 10% of your holdings every time the BTC price doubles, even though maybe if you start out at the vary first doubling, you might be doing a bit much, but if he starts out with his 10% for every doubling, and he is starting out at $80k (which 10% of $160k would be $16k), but instead decides to cash out some of the extra, so he ends up cashing out 20% (which would be $32k with BTC prices are at $80k), then I might find either of those scenarios to be somewhat reasonable (even though the 20% cashing out in one go would likely be more than I would be willing to do at that particular BTC price.. again, maybe I need more context in terms of how long it might take to get there and yes it seems that under your clarification of your framing of this hypothetical, we are also presuming that he had not sold any BTC between $20k and $80k)
Now let's suppose that Bitcoin reaches $120k at the highest intensity of this bull run and once the bull run is over then Bitcoin can dip back to $60k-$50k values.
That is a pretty bearish upside scenario, but sure, that is surely possible and within reach, and also it is possible that after BTC prices pass thorugh the current ATH that they will dip back below the current ATH - but I would not even be close to giving very high odds to that kind of a scenario. So you are describing a situation in which the guy sells half of his BTC at $80k and then the BTC price ends up going up to $120k and then does he have enough BTC to sell some more? . and then you are also anticipating that he might be able to buy back most of what he sold for around 20% to 30% below the sales price... even given all of those assumed facts, which don't even seem like great odds.. .. even though surely it could be the base case,
(but even with a base case you should be considering other scenarios).. and so why would it not be better to plan to sell somewhere between $5k and $10k worth of BTC at various price points such as $75k, $85k, $95k, $105k, $115k, $125k etc etc.. and so at least you are covered, and maybe between $75k and $125k, you would still end up selling between $30k and $60k worth of BTC, but you would still have right around 3/4 of your BTC, even if the BTC prices ended up going all the way up to $120k or maybe even $125k if we want to get one more sale in there.. (but even in this incrementalist scenario, if our last BTC sale in this run were to end up being $115k rather than $125k, our hypothetical guy would have had still ended up selling between $25k and $50k
(which maybe would be selling less than 0.5 BTC - so less than 1/4 of his stash), and what would be wrong with that amount of sales in terms of not to be overly selling the BTC stash because such guy happens to be overly wanting to get into dollars and too nervous about keeping value in BTC).
Just for example if the same guy buys Bitcoin at $52k then he's increased his Bitcoin portfolio a little bit and also made $10k extra which he used for his other needs. That's case of the ones with just 2 Bitcoin what if the same person had 20 Bitcoin then he might end up making enough profit by selling his 10 Bitcoin at $80k.
I doubt that you become more justified with your plan to overly sell your BTC, even if you are working with more BTC, yet I can see that you have a bit of a presumption that does not seem to adequately account for the opportunity costs of selling a lot of BTC and then having further BTC upside, and you also seem to be nervous about holding BTC and wanting to lock in dollar profits, which surely has good chances of causing you to sell way too many BTC too soon, whether we are referring to 2 BTC or if we are referring to 20 BTC.. in either case you are advocating selling high portions of your stash with hardly any justification, except showing that you are afraid of BTC being able to continue to hold its value against the almighty dollar.
Assuming price makes an all time high before halving, what is expected from the price movement post halving? It is really looking difficult knowing what to expect from the market post halving because what we are seeing is different from price history of Bitcoin.
This is so common that guys seem to believe that breaching previous ATHs contribute to some kind of limits in upside potential and/or showing that BTC is topping merely because it might be adding to ATHs.
Sure ATH means everyone is in profits, but it still does not mean that longer term HODLers are anxious to cash out of their coins, and it does not even necessarily mean that newer bitcoiners are going to be satisfied to cash out of their coins or to presume that further UPpity BTC prices aren't sustainable.
Are you getting anxious to sell Moreno233? Surely you ONLY have around 2.5 years in bitcoin, so I could imagine some scenarios in which you might have had accumulated a lot of coins, so it could be reasonable that you might either stop buying or even to shave off some profits, but it is not a given that it would be a good idea to do either of those, depending on various aspects of your BTC stash status relative to your other personal financial and psychological factors.
Hopefully, for your own sake, you are not going to be selling too many cornz too soon.. even though none of us can say what is going to happen in terms of where the top of this cycle might be, even if BTC prices may well end up hitting new ATHs prior to the halvening.
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The big thing is to be patient. I’m expecting a selloff when the halving occurs because people will take profits. Historically, it takes almost a year and a half after the halving for the price to peak. Sure, there are reasons it could happen sooner this time, but I’m still expecting at least 6 months to pass after the halving before the market could peak. Patience and faith will have to play a role if you want out at the top.
That is surely a trading and a gambling way of framing how to manage your BTC holdings OgNasty, even though a few posts back you described yourself as a non-trader.
If we see a halving happen on 4/20 at the same time the price hits $69,000 I think I'm going to go ahead and say that rich people must be having some fun with this market while it's still small relatively speaking from the other traditional investments that must get manipulated regularly. That or fate really does love irony as Elon Musk likes to say...
I'm feeling scarily bullish these days as well. Too bullish... Feels like we need a correction, but I'll be damned if I sell any here with a new potential ATH right around the corner.
Another case in point.
For a "non-trader," you are constantly seeming to be inclined to play what you believe to be anticipated price direction.. surely, you are not anything even close to a trader.
Right?
riiiiiigggggttttt?
rrrriiiiiigggggggghhhhhtttttt?
Feels like the chopper's gonna vroom vroom tonight.
..........
it is almost like the BTC price has to double or triple from here in a fairly short period of time to merely help with the ability of spot BTC ETFs to be able to continue to absorb actual BTC rather than fake ones.. ...........
yeah I have come to the conclusion that 130-160k this fall or earlier is needed to be correct and that is not the top. Which is to come in 2025 . well over 200k by spring of 2025
Which is amazingly optimistic for me.
Yeah, it is almost like the underlying BTC supply versus demand facts are difficult to poo poo (or to downplay.. unless you are just ignorant), even if any of us might strive to stay somewhat conservative in our thinking about where dee cornz are with anticipation of where they might be going.... and surely, these ideas are not even guaranteed, but there is a certain kind of questioning regarding from where are the coins going to come? Are long term HODLers going to just start giving up their coins in order that ETF share buyers can get price exposure? Of course some of that will be going on, but at the same time, there are still going to be others who are going to choose to hold (or continue to hold) their coins directly, and they might be willing to shave off some of their coins, but probably they are not going to be willing to shave off as many coins as are being ongoingly demanded in the coming months, quarters and/or years.. whether it is through the second half of this cycle or if we might have to even reconsider cycles. . and surely I am not yet ready to give up upon the cycle, even if it might be questionable whether my lil precious is staying within the confines of such historical cycle patterns in the next 2-4 years.
Poll
